####018006320#### FXUS66 KPQR 141559 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 859 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Updated Marine Discussion and Watches/Warnings/Advisories. .SYNOPSIS...The next seven days are highlighted by above normal temperatures with low-level onshore flow remaining in place. Mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend, aside from late Wednesday into Thursday when chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase with an approaching upper level low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...Warm conditions continue today and tomorrow with relatively high confidence in the temperature forecast. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected for the interior lowlands while mid to upper 60s can be expected along the coast. Mostly clear skies expected with marine stratus developing overnight but remaining confined to the coastal strip. Dry conditions will also continue through Wednesday evening, aside from a 15-30% chance of rain showers over the Oregon Cascades during the evening/night and again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Two weak upper level disturbances ahead of a closed upper low over the northeast Pacific will support each chance of showers. However, dry air entrainment into storm updrafts will likely limit vertical growth of any cells that do develop. In turn, this will limit the potential for lightning and significant rain amounts. The NBM backs this up, producing only a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms on the west slopes of the Cascades with a trace to 0.05 inches of rain near the Cascade crest. A split remains among the ensemble models, evident in the WPC cluster analysis, regarding the progression of the upper level low. ~60-70% of ENS/GEPS members favor the closed low coming onshore or already overhead on Thursday while the GEFS only shows this in 20% of members. The GEFS solutions favor the closed low drifting farther southwest off the northern California coast with around 60% of members. This split continues to support a high degree of uncertainty regarding the temperature and precipitation forecast heading into Thursday and Friday. If the low is more progressive Wednesday night into Thursday, expect higher areal coverage for precipitation, higher QPF totals and high temperatures below the deterministic NBM Thursday afternoon. Current temperature forecast is for highs in the low 80s but the spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles ranges from the low 70s to the mid 90s for the interior lowlands. Large model spread is evident for QPF as well, with the NBM min to max 24-QPF values ranging from no rain at all to over 0.25-0.50 inches, mainly for locations across southwest Washington and north of Salem in northwest Oregon. If the low is more progressive and moves over the region, showers and thunderstorms could produce localized heavy rainfall with PWAT values exceeding 1", cloud layer winds near 15-20 kt, and deep warm cloud layer depths near 3000-3500 meters. -19/23 .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night...Confidence in the forecast actually increases a bit Friday and into the weekend despite total model spread for temperatures remaining large. Overall, model ensembles are in good agreement for dry and warm conditions Friday through the upcoming weekend with continued low-level onshore flow and southwest flow aloft. The main uncertainty in the long term forecast is exact high temperatures for inland valleys, which could range anywhere from the lower 80s to near 100 degrees. The most likely outcome is for highs somewhere in the mid 80s to lower 90s. As of this forecast, Sunday and Monday look like they could be similarly warm with highs in the 90s for the interior lowlands. Chances for Sunday highs to reach or exceed 90 degrees are 40-60% for inland valleys, except 30-40% over the Cowlitz Valley and lower Columbia. On Monday, chances are 40-70% for all interior lowlands. Chances for 100 degrees or greater both days are locally 5-10% around the Portland metro and into the Columbia River Gorge. Major HeatRisk probabilities for Sunday range from 10-20% and on Monday from 15- 30%. Extreme heat is unlikely at this time but there remains uncertainty, check in for the latest updates. It is also worth noting the coast would remain much cooler than inland areas regardless of the outcome due to light onshore winds. Beyond the seven day forecast, it is possible the warm and dry conditions will persist beyond Monday. -19/23 && .AVIATION...Stratus has built northward from the central coast to the Long Beach Peninsula in Washington. Marine stratus will stay confined to the coastal strip, supporting IFR or lower CIGs for coastal terminals until around 16-18Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mostly clear skies except over the Cascades where some mid and high level clouds are possible. Light north to northwest winds becoming 5-10 kt during the afternoon. Coastal terminals may see gusts up to 20 kt. Another round of marine stratus is expected along the coast, supporting lowered CIGs after 06Z Wednesday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds around 5-8 kt. -19/12 && .MARINE...Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with afternoon gusts reaching to around 20 kt each day. Seas could be choppy at times with heights mainly in the 4-6 foot range but could see some 7 foot seas at 8-10 seconds. Isolated steep and hazardous seas but not enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). A SCA is in effect from 3AM to 9AM Wednesday morning for the Columbia River Bar for rough seas due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft. -19 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland