####018008120#### FXUS61 KALY 062330 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 630 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Aside from some passing light snow showers and flurries for western areas this evening, mainly dry and chilly weather is expected for tonight into Sunday morning. A fast moving wave of low pressure will bring a period of light snow for Sunday night, mainly for the Adirondacks. Behind this system, cold and blustery conditions are expected on Monday, which will be followed for unsettled weather through much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating snow on Sunday evening into Sunday Night. NBM probabilities for seeing 1" or snow or greater are 50% or higher for the western and central Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley. Discussion: As of 100 PM EST...High pressure is now well east of the region and is offshore Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is moving across the eastern Great Lakes and is heading eastward. Visible satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies over the region, with bands of high clouds impacting southern areas and some lower clouds over the Adirondacks. Radar imagery shows a few light showers and flurries ahead of the cold front starting to approach the western Adirondacks, but any precip is very light and brief and won't amount to much. Through this evening, there may be some scattered snow showers for far western areas, but any accumulation will be just a coating or less and mainly just limited to the far northwestern Adirondacks. Otherwise, the moisture-starved cold front will pass through the region, allowing for temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s for lows tonight. Skies will start out partly sunny on Sunday, but increasing clouds are expected by later in the day, as the next wave of low pressure approaches from the west. This will be a weak storm over the Midwest that will be moving towards the area, although the track of storm (basically right across Upstate New York) will keep the best moisture and forcing mainly north of the region over the North Country and Quebec. As a result, QPF will be rather limited across our area, with the better snow accumulation north of the region. Some light snow may develop by the late afternoon or early evening hours for western areas and will track eastward for the overnight. Most of the activity should be done across our area by 1 or 2 AM based off the latest CAMS and NBM guidance. NBM probabilities have decreased over the past few days, with the only areas over 50% for 1" over the western Adirondacks. Albany only has a 4% chance of 1", with even just a coating now down to 25%, as snowfall may be limited by downsloping, limited QPF and dry low-levels. While some locally slippery spots are possible over the Adirondacks, most areas won't be seeing any impacts from this light snowfall with this fast moving clipper system. As it departs, colder air will pour into the region, allowing temps to fall into the single digits and teens, with breezy conditions developing by Monday morning. It will be a cold and blustery day on Monday. Despite a mostly sunny sky, temps will only reach the teens and 20s for highs with northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. Winds chill will be in the single digits at times, especially for the higher terrain. As the high pressure area moves overhead for Monday night, winds will decrease and temps will fall near zero for much of the area for overnight lows, making for another early season frigid night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With a fast northern stream in place, there will be a few opportunities for unsettled wintry weather through the long term period. On Tuesday, it will be continued chilly with highs still only in the 20s. As the high pressure departs off to the east, southerly winds will increase and clouds will also be increasing ahead of the next storm system, which will be another northern stream clipper system. As with the past one, this will be fairly moisture starved and generally tracking north of the area. Aside from some passing light snow showers (mainly for northern areas) on Tuesday evening, this will generally pass through without much impact. The next system looks to have more of an impact, as a stronger low pressure system will be moving through the Great Lakes for Wednesday. This stronger system will have more moisture associated with it and looks to impact the region from late Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. While most areas should see some snow initially, the southerly flow ahead of this system will allow for milder air to move in at low levels and aloft as well. Valley areas will likely see a changeover to rain, although there is still uncertainty regarding the exact track and QPF. NBM suggests many areas may see a light accumulation before a changeover occurs as well, with at least a 40% chance for a coating across the entire area and high terrain areas seeing at least a 50% chance for 1" or more. Despite the possibility of rain, surface temps will still be chilly and may just be warm enough (mid to upper 30s) in valley areas for rainfall. Behind this system, more cold air will return for the late week. Models suggest another storm system could impact the region by late Thursday or Friday, although guidance has a lot of variability with the potential storm track. With colder air in place, p-type would most likely be snow, but QPF will depend on exact storm track. The potential for more accumulating snow is there, but this will come into better focus by early next week. Overall, temps for the late week will continue to average below normal levels. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions as of 6:20 PM EST at all terminals, although skies are becoming BKN to OVC with cigs 3500- 4500 ft. For GFL/POU/ALB, these low-end VFR cigs with BKN to OVC cigs 3500-4500 ft are expected to continue through early tomorrow morning. A brief period of MVFR cigs can't be ruled out at ALB for a few hours around sunrise. At PSF, cigs trend down from VFR to MVFR within the first few hours of the TAF period, and to MVFR fuel alternate cigs after 06z. Low confidence on if cigs get down to IFR levels at PSF later tonight into tomorrow morning, but based on latest guidance have added a tempo groups to highlight the most likely timeframe of possible IFR conditions. All terminals see improvement by mid-morning, with BKN cigs 4000- 5000 ft at ALB/GFL/POU and cigs 2000-3000 ft at PSF. Conditions then deteriorate tomorrow afternoon and evening as another upper disturbance tracks by. Mainly MVFR cigs expected, except at POU where cigs remain VFR. Some snow showers are also possible after 21z, with the best chance at GFL followed by ALB. Here, have added prob30 groups to highlight that IFR vsbys are expected within snow showers. Winds will generally be at around 5 kt or less through most of the TAF period, except at PSF tonight where west winds will be at 4-8kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...27 SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM...27 AVIATION...35 ####018005452#### FXUS63 KGRR 062330 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 630 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clipper system light snow tonight into Sunday morning - Southwest flow lake enhanced snow Monday night - Clipper system snow Tuesday night into Wednesday - Additional snow chances Thursday into next Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Clipper system light snow tonight into Sunday morning A mid level shortwave is working out of the Rockies and into the Plains this afternoon which has already allowed for surface low pressure to form in Nebraska. Light snow is broken out ahead of the low across SD/MN/IA. The low will move eastward tonight into the Ohio Valley, filling as does. Snow is still expected to move into Southwest Lower Michigan overnight and persist into Sunday morning. This looks to mainly be a 100am to 100pm event. Liquid equivalent amounts are not high (0.05 to 0.15). A weakening system will move into the area with smallish liquid equivalent, so snowfall will be on the light side as well. We are expecting an inch or two in most locations. Cannot rule out a total towards 3 inches in a few spots, but this does not look to be the norm. - Southwest flow lake enhanced snow Monday night The prevailing upper flow for much of the next 7 days will be some variation of northwest which leads typically to clipper systems this time of year. That is the case with this time frame as well, with multiple clipper systems to bring rounds of light snow and occasionally colder air. Monday night into Tuesday morning the next clipper in the series affects West Central Lower Michigan with a southwest flow lake enhanced event which will bring accumulating snow to areas like Ludington, Pentwater and Baldwin. The surface low and upper shortwave pass off to the north, so that is where the more impactful snow will fall. The aforementioned areas may see 1-3 or 2-4 inches with this short duration event. Highest snow totals in our area of responsibility will likely be across Mason, Oceana and Lake counties. - Clipper system snow Tuesday night into Wednesday The strongest system of the 7 day forecast looks to be another clipper Tuesday night into Wednesday. Aloft a strong shortwave plows in from the west during this time frame. Down at the surface, a deep low for a clipper will pass right through the heart of the state moving through Central Lower Michigan most likely. Wednesday morning, the low is centered somewhere near Mt Pleasant using an aggregate of the operational models with a depth around 988mb. A formidable low for sure. The heaviest swath of precipitation usually falls near and to the north of the low track of a clipper and that is what the models are indicating with this system as well. Quite a bit of time before we deal with this system and we will be watching trends closely. If the track comes a little further south, more of the forecast area will get into the heavier precipitation. Even on the current track though, Central Michigan is in line to see sizable accumulations of snow (possibly 4-7 inches). Again, this could include more of Southwest Lower Michigan if the track trends southward. This is a bit of a warmer system as the stronger low pulls in warm air from the south, therefore the I-96 corridor to the south will likely see a rain/snow mix with this event. Again, trends in the models will be everything with regard to type and amounts of precipitation. - Additional snow chances Thursday into next Saturday Another weak clipper system passes well off to our south on Thursday with chances that most of the precipitation stays in that direction as well. A period of lake effect snow then looks to set up from Friday into Saturday as progressively colder air infiltrates the area on northwest winds. A significant batch of cold air works into the plains during this period which will put Southwest Lower Michigan into -10C to -20C air at 850mb. This will put delta t's over the lake in the 17 to 27 C range which is high to extreme. Lake effect will continue with likely a small flake size. As we get into this temperature setup road conditions tend to deteriorate as highs are held at best in the 20s. The surface pattern Friday into Saturday is indicative of a very cold air lake effect setup as we see lee side troughing near the Great Lakes due to thermal affects. Plenty of light snow and light accumulations with the potential for higher impact poor road conditions. Bottom line, the forecast over the next 7 days very much speaks winter! Meaning, there are multiple chances for accumulating snow and a couple shots of colder air. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Ceilings will be around 3000 feet AGL this evening. Snow will move in after midnight with IFR conditions expected to become widespread after 06Z. MVFR conditions should prevail after 12Z in most places with a slow improvement to VFR during the afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Ostuno ####018005698#### FXUS65 KTFX 062330 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 430 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of snow or snow showers decrease this evening. - Temperatures warm above seasonal averages Monday and Tuesday. - Very windy conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday. - Mountain snow redevelops Monday and Tuesday with additional opportunities for mountain and lower elevation snow late next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Fast and moist west-northweerly flow from the Pacific continues across the Northern Rockies and MT, maintaining a very active weather pattern for the region through much of the week ahead. A few areas of mainly light snow across eastern portions of north- central MT should decrease through the rest of this afternoon but may redevelop this evening, mainly along and east of a Havre to Lewistown line as another wave of moisture overruns the deeper cold airmass situated there. Orographically driven snow showers continue to affect the mountains through this evening with areas along the continental divide north of Lincoln and the Madison/Gallatin ranges most likely to see additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches while most other mountain areas can expect around 1 inch or less from additional snow showers through this evening. Temperatures will be tricky tonight across the north-central MT plains as the low level cold airmass that moved in this morning retreats back to the northeast overnight. Minimum temps are likely to occur early this evening before rising overnight for areas adjacent to the Rocky Mtn Front and east across Great Falls to Lewistown. A relative lull in between disturbances embedded within the fast WNW flow aloft will bring mainly dry conditions with seasonal to somewhat above average temperatures across the entire forecast area Sunday. Mild and increasingly windy conditions are expected Sunday night through Tuesday as upper ridging attempts to build to our southwest with a stronger mid level shortwave and potent upper level jet streaking east along the US/Canadian border late Monday through Tuesday. This results very strong mid level flow of 70kts or higher above 10000ft which looks to peak early Tuesday morning as surface low pressure tracks east across southern AB and SK. Temperatures will warm to upper 40s to around 50 for most lower elevation locations Monday and Tuesday with windier locations seeing overnight temps remain above freezing. Precipitation redevelops along the continental divide Sunday night and will likely intensify Monday night as the upper level wave passes. Snow levels initially around 5000ft look to rise to around 6500 ft Monday and Monday night before lowering again on Tuesday. Additional disturbances move through the fast flow aloft Wed/Thu with decreasing confidence in timing and details. Models ensembles are increasingly supporting the idea that the upper level jet sinks south with these features allowing a colder airmass to move back southward by Thursday or Friday. Embedded moisture with these disturbances could bring a period of prolonged mountain snowfall as well as some opportunities for lower elevation snow. Hoenisch - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The risk for a widespread wind event late Monday through early Tuesday has increased with most deterministic models showing 700 MB flow of 75-85kts with the passage of the wave early Tuesday morning. Timing of the peak mid level wind speeds is not optimal for surfacing strong winds and temperature profiles will be key to assessing the potential for mountain wave enhancement, but probabilities for gusts of 60 mph or more are better than 50-60% for areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains as well as across portions of Cascade and Judith Basin counties. Snow with the Mon/Tues system is focused across areas near the continental divide with rising snow levels likely to keep significant accumulation above most mountain passes. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 07/00Z TAF Period An unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will send a series of weather disturbances through the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A warm front will slowly transition the current patchy fog and IFR/LIFR stratus over the plains to VFR conditions in a southwest to northeast fashion between 07/03 and 07/12Z. Isentropic lift from the front will bring one more round of light snow to KHVR and KLWT, mostly between 07/03 and 07/08Z. Gusty westerly winds and VFR conditions are then generally expected for the remainder of the period before the next weather disturbance brings more mountain snow and increased cloud cover after 08/00Z. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 21 41 36 47 / 20 10 0 10 CTB 11 37 28 41 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 29 41 32 46 / 30 20 20 20 BZN 23 39 27 45 / 40 10 10 10 WYS 14 30 21 34 / 50 60 70 60 DLN 25 39 28 44 / 10 10 10 10 HVR 6 36 24 41 / 80 0 10 0 LWT 18 38 27 43 / 60 0 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for East Glacier Park Region-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018003535#### FXUS65 KPUB 062331 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 431 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind driven snow continues across the central mountains this afternoon before decreasing this evening. - Cooler tomorrow with less wind. - Warming trend early next week then leveling off but generally dry. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 233 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 System in northwest flow continues to bring wind driven snow to the central mountains this afternoon into the evening before decreasing overnight as drier air works in. Also seeing some instability enhanced snow bands spread down into the adjacent lower elevations of El Paso county, mainly northern areas this afternoon. These will quickly push eastward and diminish towards early evening. Winds will remain strong through the evening before shifting from the north and tailing off as the embedded energy passes off to the southeast. This will leave clearing skies over the region overnight which will allow temperatures to cool efficiently once the winds decouple. Coldest readings tonight will be across the interior valleys where snow cover lingers (mainly San Luis Valley and Upper Rio Grande). Temperatures for these areas could drop into the single digits. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow will keep some isolated orographic snow showers continuing across the central mountains overnight, but additional snowfall after midnight will be spotty and light. This will allow for improving travel conditions across the central mountains once the snow lets up this evening. Temperatures on Sunday will be cooler, especially across the plains behind the cold front where readings will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler due to less mixing and lighter winds. Otherwise, it is the beginning of a drying trend which will continue into next week. -KT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 208 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Form Monday through Wednesday, temps will gradually warm each day and it will be dry. From midweek onwards, there is quite a bit of spread in the temps although it will likely be relatively mild over the region. This variability is likely due with inconsistencies in the mid range guidance on the placement of the jet over the region (GFS is farther north with the jet during this time as compared to the EC). All the guidance shows another weak wave moving in the NW flow aloft to the north of the region, and this will bring a good chance of some more snow showers to the central mtns during the WED/THU time frame, with a bit cooler temps over the area. Next weekend looks mild and dry. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 429 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with instability showers across the mtns and plains waning and clearing skies after sunset. Breezy northerly winds at the terminals to diminish after sunset as well, with generally light, diurnal wind remgimes expected at the terminals through the rest of the taf period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ058- 060. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ059-061. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MW ####018004024#### FXUS63 KABR 062332 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 532 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of light snow moves into north central South Dakota later this afternoon, continues southeast this evening. Around an inch or less accumulations with this system. Freezing drizzle may mix in at times this evening across central SD. - Band of light snow moves west to east Sunday (40-60%). Inch or less type accumulations. - Frontal passage Tuesday afternoon to generate northwest winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph through the evening/overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Added areas of freezing drizzle this evening across central SD. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as light snow moves southeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Pair of bands of snow continue this afternoon, one migrating out of the CWA into east central South Dakota, the other poised on our doorstep in North Dakota headed into Mobridge/Aberdeen. CAMS continue to support this second feature headed into our area to dissipate, with only an inch type accumulations. 1030+ mb high pressure system moves over North Dakota extending south southeast into the northeast of the state tonight. Warm advection as this feature retreats Sunday is enough to generate light snow thanks to about 5 microbars of lift in the dendritic growth zone AOA 700mb. This persists for a few hours before drying out in the DGZ and leaving us with just stratus. The next clipper is rather weak Monday evening, mainly across North Dakota. Milder 850mb temperatures, between +1 and +3C in the warm sector overhead during daylight hours, however NBM sky cover is suggesting little sunshine potential for the day. Light westerly flow and the cloud cover/milder air aloft will scour out the last of the Arctic airmass at least. The clipper that follows later Tuesday is the main feature to watch this week. This is a much stronger system, down to around 985'ish mb. A tight gradient, 20mb across the state, and pressure falls of 13 to 16mb ahead, and similar pressure rises in its wake, means fairly good transport of winds aloft to the surface. Ahead of the system, strong warm advection will still temper this somewhat, with 1/2km winds of 30 to 40kts. By 00Z Wednesday, that has increased to 50 to 65kts in the cold advection regime. BUFKIT mixed tool verifies with several sites mixing into that 60kt zone. EFI/shift of tails focuses on James valley west for those higher probabilities for 60+ mph wind gusts. What impact will 60mph winds have however, after a high temperatures Monday above freezing, and Tuesday near 40 degrees with rain showers. Depends on how much wrap around snow is generated, which at this point is relegated to the far northeast of the state. As such the main impact will be winds on high profiles vehicles and powerlines, but the snow that is around should be heavily modified and unblowable. Another clipper follows for Wednesday night, following a track south of the CWA. The Arctic airmass that has followed Tuesday's clipper isn't quite as cold, but cold enough that the NBM probability p- type is predominantly snow. NBM 25-75th QPF range is only about 0.1" however deterministic GFS is coming in closer to a 0.5" swath/band, so this may be smoothed out in extended ensembles given how far out it is. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR conditions still expected to prevail into Sunday as a series of shortwaves bring some wintry precip to the region. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...20 ####018003474#### FXUS63 KICT 062333 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 533 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moving through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures for Sunday. - Warming trend starting Monday with well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday. - Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 At the surface, low pressure sits over the Nebraska/South Dakota border with heavy snow falling north and east of the low. In our area, breezy southerly winds persist with gusts up to 30 mph in central KS. Low clouds and patchy fog continue to linger in southeast KS, though the fog will likely diminish as we move towards this evening. Tonight, the surface low will move southeast towards northeast KS and into eastern MO/southern IL by Sunday morning. Given southerly surface winds will continue to advect higher dewpoints into south-central and southeast KS tonight, low clouds and fog are likely to develop. The window for fog would be brief as the surface low will push a cold front through the area, bringing colder and drier air by early Sunday morning. Northerly winds will be breezy Sunday morning, slowly diminishing from west to east as we move into Sunday afternoon and the tighter pressure gradient moves east/southeast from our area. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday afternoon. On Sunday night, northwesterly flow aloft will return to our area as upper-level ridging persists over the western CONUS. A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures return. Highs will range from the the lower 40s in southeast KS to the lower 50s in central KS. A surface low will move across ND on Tuesday afternoon as a strong upper-level shortwave moves into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday afternoon. This will increase southerly/southwesterly winds, aiding in well above normal temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will range from the upper 50s in southeast KS to the lower 60s in central KS, which is about 10-15 degrees above normal. The northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains will generally persist through the upcoming work week, resulting in multiple shortwaves and clipper-like systems. Discrepancies in model guidance start to increase late in the work week, increasing uncertainty. The GFS is notably stronger with the upper-level shortwaves than the ECMWF, resulting in a stronger surface trough over the Plains. Precipitation chances will remain very low for the end of the work week with below normal temperatures likely on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 MVFR and occasional IFR conditions expected to continue at CNU this evening and into the overnight due to fog/mist and low cigs. Elsewhere, southerly winds will turn northwesterly between 02-07Z behind a cold front. Breezy conditions with gusts to 25 knots are then expected through around 18Z with MVFR cigs. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots with lifting ceilings between 18-00Z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...AMD ####018012954#### FXUS61 KCLE 062333 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 633 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain over Lake Erie through Sunday as weak low pressure tracks east-northeast along it. The front will sweep southeast across the area Sunday evening, followed by high pressure on Monday. Stronger low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -Light snow accumulations are likely primarily north of U.S. 30 on Sunday, with impacts expected to be minor. Minor lake-enhanced snow lingers into Sunday night south of Lake Erie, ending by Monday. -Patchy freezing drizzle is possible (medium confidence) early Sunday morning ahead of the arrival of steadier snow, which may lead to some slick spots. We will be cloudy and chilly (banner early December weather for the region) but mainly dry through most of tonight. A very subtle mid- level trough will push off of Lake Erie and into far Northeast OH and Northwest PA early this evening, which may touch off some very light snow (possibly mixed with freezing drizzle due to a lack of moisture and lift above the -10C level) between approximately 4-8 PM. Given very minor amounts of precipitation am expecting very little if any impact, with a low risk (10-20%) for enough freezing drizzle to glaze untreated surfaces across the higher terrain of Northwest PA. Some minor lake effect snow then should focus over the lake (possibly grazing the lakeshore from Lake County points northeast) through the night as winds back southwest, with potential for up to another inch of snow near the Erie County PA lakeshore overnight if this lake effect pushes onshore more than currently expected. Lows tonight will not drop too much given plenty of clouds and some weak warm air advection developing overnight...mainly to a 25-30 degree range. A shortwave will cross the region Sunday afternoon as weak surface low pressure tracks east-northeast along the stationary front that will remain near Lake Erie. The front sweeps southeast Sunday evening behind the low pressure. Low-level moisture increases late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the deeper moisture/lift aloft arriving from the west. This leads to another brief window with low to medium confidence potential (20-40%) for flurries or freezing drizzle across parts of the area early Sunday morning. Given the timing and a colder ground now, this will need to be monitored for patchy impacts on untreated surfaces...though again, we're not talking much precipitation and confidence is not high enough for any enhanced messaging at the moment beyond a forecast mention. In terms of the main window of precipitation/snow on Sunday, we're looking at mainly weak lift focused in the low-levels with this system as surface temperatures warm towards or a bit above freezing during the day. Snow should arrive across Northwest OH fairly quickly after sunrise and spread into eastern OH/western PA by late morning or early afternoon. While most of the area will see snow and POPs have been pushed up a bit higher to reflect that likelihood, the snow looks rather light and perhaps even "showery" with snow:liquid ratios likely <12:1. QPF amounts will range from 0.10-0.20" north to <0.10" south. This adds up to light potential snow accumulations, ranging from 1-2" across our northern counties to 1" or less elsewhere. The greatest potential for snow to stick to roads will likely be across Northwest OH Sunday morning given earlier arrival of the snow and perhaps a brief window of steadier snow farther west in the morning, with the snow likely not doing much of anything to the roads elsewhere during the day. Most of the area dries out pretty quickly into Sunday night, though weak synoptic lift lingering across Northeast OH and Northwest PA into the first few hours of Sunday night will combine with modest lake enhancement (as winds turn north-northwest behind the front and low- levels quickly cool) to keep mainly light snow showers going there. Synoptic moisture quickly exits through Sunday evening, leaving lake effect flurries and snow showers into the night that will quickly dissipate themselves as high pressure builds in. Some flurries may persist into Monday morning, especially if a Lake Huron connection that is hinted at by some models develops, though any snow should not be at all impactful by then. Am not expecting much additional snow Sunday night, perhaps another inch or so across some of the higher terrain in the snowbelt...primarily falling in the evening. However, with surface temperatures quickly dropping on their way to overnight lows in the 10s and to near 20, locations that see accumulating snow after sunset could see untreated surfaces become slick/icy. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... -Light snow possible (30-60%) across Northeast OH and Northwest PA Tuesday afternoon ahead of a warm front. -Precipitation chances (currently favoring a rain/snow mix) ramp up from the west later Tuesday night area-wide. Quite weather is expected for Monday and Monday night as high pressure slides through the southern Great Lakes. Highs on Monday will be cold in the mid to upper 20s, with lows mainly in the 10s (some single digits in colder/outlying areas) Monday night. A shortwave will move across the central/southern Great Lakes on Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the area. This brings potential for snow along and ahead of the warm front, especially across Northeast OH and Northwest PA during the afternoon and early evening with lower odds for a bit of snow to clip Northwest OH Tuesday morning/ midday. With highs expected to reach the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday (slightly cooler in the terrain of Northwest PA) and light snow primarily occurring in the afternoon, impacts are expected to be low. Our southwestern counties are expected to remain dry on Tuesday. Tuesday night starts fairly dry, though a more potent clipper approaches from the west-northwest overnight into early Wednesday. Large scale ascent (largely courtesy of warm advection ahead of the system) and moisture quickly ramp up from the west overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday, bringing another round of precipitation later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Lows will only bottom out in the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday evening before warming Tuesday night, with temperatures aloft also expected to warm. This suggests rain will become an increasingly favored precipitation type outside of the higher terrain of Northwest PA overnight Tuesday night, with fairly light QPF amounts (generally 0.05-0.20", highest across our northeastern counties). The forecast currently calls for a rain/snow mix across most of the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with snow accumulations likely to be minimal to none for most of the area given the expected warming temperatures and mix/change to rain for most of the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -Potent clipper system exits to the east on Wednesday and pulls a cold front across the area. Gusty winds and rain/snow showers are possible, with some lingering lake effect into Wednesday night. -A cold and potentially active pattern is expected to settle in for the end of the week and start of the weekend, though confidence in details is on the lower side this far out. The greatest potential for impactful snow will likely end up downwind of Lake Erie. Precipitation ahead of the clipper discussed in the short term will likely continue into Wednesday morning, especially across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Temperatures will continue to support a rain/snow mix with likely minimal impact for most, but perhaps mainly or all snow in the higher terrain of the snowbelt where light accumulations are possible. The clipper exits to the east-northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening, dragging the system's cold front across the area. A few snow or rain/snow showers could accompany the front area- wide. The airmass behind the front Wednesday night into early Thursday will not be all that cold (850mb temps dipping to around -10C) with winds expected to start backing again quickly into Thursday, so we're not looking at significant lake effect behind this front. However, the combination of some lake enhancement to any snow showers along the front itself and a modest amount of lake effect behind it could allow for some accumulating snow (likely below advisory amounts) across the snowbelt late Wednesday into early Thursday. Locations outside of the snowbelt will generally see minimal accumulation, with perhaps some dustings (<1") with any snow showers along the front late Wednesday. There is good agreement that a longwave trough (with a healthy tap of Arctic air) will deepen over the Great Lakes to end the week and start the weekend, though there is less agreement in the timing of the arrival of the deeper cold airmass and in any shortwaves/clippers that will likely move through the region between Thursday and Saturday. The take home message is that another period of well-below- average temperatures (highs in the 10s/20s, lows in the single digits/10s) is likely starting Friday or Saturday. Accumulating snow, particularly downwind of the lake but possibly area-wide with any clippers, is possible between late Thursday and Saturday, though with generally lower confidence in any specifics at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... An expansive MVFR cloud deck is in place across the region and will impact the terminals for much of the TAF period. A weak cold front lingers across Lake Erie with a few showers expected in parts of Northwest Pennsylvania through tonight near ERI. Light freezing drizzle is initially over the next several hours before transitioning to primarily light snow by midnight. An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves across the area on Sunday. This is likely to bring snow to most of the area on Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon with 3-6 hours of IFR visibilities are likely. Patchy drizzle may be possible for a few hours Sunday morning before the snow moves in. Light and variable winds briefly become south and southwest Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon before become northwest Sunday evening to north Sunday night. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots on Lake Erie today will veer to westerly and decrease to 10 to 20 knots tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters east of Cleveland until 10 PM this evening. Waves will drop off overnight as a ridge builds across the lake. Another low pressure system tracking out of the Plains will weaken as it moves towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday, pulling a cold front south across Lake Erie. Winds will shift to the northwest and then north at 15-25 knots and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again east of the Lake Erie Islands Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning on the Central Basin. Next we turn on our attention to an active mid-week period. Low pressure will move east across the Central Great Lakes on Tuesday and southerly winds on Lake Erie will increase to 25-35 knots. Winds remain elevated Tuesday night then ramp up a little more as a stronger low pressure system traverses the Central Great Lakes but is displaced just south of the first one. Both the Tuesday and Wednesday system are accompanied by a strong low level jet and could potentially see a low end gale with either or both. Winds shift to the west and northwest behind the system Wednesday night. Will continue to monitor the track of these system for possible Gale conditions and Small Craft Advisories that will follow on the east half of Lake Erie. Low water conditions are likely again on the western basin of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Sullivan SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...10 ####018005715#### FXUS64 KHGX 062334 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy, but dense, fog will be possible across much of the area tonight into Sunday morning. - Cold front moves through the area Sunday ushering in chillier weather to start the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. - Monitoring the potential for another cold front towards the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 After an abnormally warm November, we were practically begging for the weather to feel more like winter (well at least I was). We got what we asked for as most locations have not seen a temperature above 60°F in the month of December...but that changes today. Sunshine finally returns today along with onshore flow leading to high temperatures finally making it back into the upper 60s/low 70s. Low level moisture is gradually increasing thanks to that onshore flow and with clear skies prevailing going into tonight alongside winds becoming light...the potential for fog is on the high side. This fog may become dense at times especially for areas near and south of I-10 going into Sunday morning. North of I-10, 925mb winds will be elevated which makes low stratus a more likely outcome. Intermittent periods of dense fog can't be completely ruled out up there especially in the few hours before sunrise. Temperatures overnight will still be somewhat chilly, but they'll be about 7-10°F warmer compared to Friday night as low temperatures range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The warming trend continues going into Sunday as high temperatures peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will push through on Sunday afternoon though leading to a return of seasonal temperatures going into next week. This will be a mostly dry FROPA, but could see some showers along the frontal boundary as it pushes offshore. A light freeze will be possible on Sunday night and Monday night for portions of the Piney Woods with low temperatures in the low 30s. Elsewhere, expect low temperatures to range from the mid 30s to low 40s. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Expecting a warming trend through most of the work week as onshore flow returns on Tuesday. Widespread high temperatures in the 70s are expected by midweek. The end of the work week is a bit uncertain at the moment in relation to another potential cold front. The troughs depicted at both 500mb and 850mb look to remain to our north and east, so it's a bit too early to lock one in. There is about a 20 degree spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the latest deterministic NBM run...so yeah! We'll keep an eye on model trends over the next few days and see if they congeal on a particular solution. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 455 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light VRB winds expected through Sun morning. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR-MVFR tonight for much of SE Texas, with some sites possibly lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of patchy to dense fog is expected to develop tonight into Sun morning and will lead to visibilities of less than 1 mile during the overnight and early morning hours for several locations, to include IAH/HOU. Conditions will gradually improve after 14Z with most of the fog burning off shortly after that hour. Cigs will also lift gradually around that hour and are expected to scatter out by the afternoon hours as drier air moves in after the passage of a dry cold front. NW winds at 10-15kt will develop Sun afternoon/evening in the wake of the front and gusts could reach 20-25kt at times. Brief moments of llvl wind shear is also possible. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Lingering light showers will be possible over the Gulf waters through the overnight hours. Expect a gradual transition from easterly winds to southeasterly by late afternoon. With winds remaining light going into the overnight hours as moisture increases, patchy to areas of fog (dense at times) will be possible in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters late tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will push through by Sunday afternoon bringing moderate to strong northerly winds extending into Monday. Sustained winds will be in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to 30-35kt alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Mariners can expect a Small Craft Advisory to be in place Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. These elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low water levels during low tide cycles on Sunday and Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going into midweek with the wind direction becoming easterly by Tuesday morning and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Winds increase to near caution flag territory around midweek and we'll be monitoring the timing of the next cold front towards the end of the work week. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 69 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 73 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 49 60 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Batiste ####018008078#### FXUS65 KABQ 062334 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 434 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 425 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 - There is high confidence for dry and warmer weather for most of central and northern New Mexico Sunday through Thursday, leading to snowmelt across midslope and high terrain areas. - There is a greater than 60% chance that northwest winds become strong again over the central high terrain and nearby highlands Tuesday and Tuesday night. Difficult travel is possible for large and high-profile vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A gusty Pacific cold front crossing western and central parts of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening, and a backdoor cold front that will slide southward through the eastern plains tonight, will cause high temperatures to fall a few to as much as 9 degrees on Sunday compared to today's readings. High temperatures will then rebound a few to 7 degrees on Monday as a warming trend commences. Under dry northwest flow aloft, gusty winds will return Sunday and Monday afternoons mainly in the mountains and along the east slopes of the central and south central mountains, but winds won't be as strong as today. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Much like today, winds will strengthen again in the mountains and over east central areas on Tuesday as an upper level trough exiting southeastward from the northern and central Rockies strengthens the flow aloft over NM. The strongest winds on Tuesday may reach 45 mph around Clines Corners, and potentially as far southeast as Clovis and Portales thanks to a developing lee-side surface trough. Breezy to windy conditions may linger over east central areas Tuesday night and Wednesday as another upper level trough crosses the northern and central Rockies, and the lee-side surface trough persists. Otherwise, the warming trend will probably continue Tuesday through Thursday most places. Models are trying to resolve a back door front that may bring cooler temperatures to parts of the eastern plains as early as Wednesday, but more likely in the wake of the second upper level trough to exit the northern and central Rockies on Thursday. High temperatures should peak most places on Wednesday and Thursday around 7 to 19 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. At this time, the National Blend of Models has temperatures cooling further in the east on Friday, and in many western locations too, as a longwave trough deepens over the central US, and a ridge of high pressure builds off the west coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Widespread turbulence continues with another Center Weather Advisory in place over the southern Rockies and nearby plains. Strong northwest winds aloft will continue thru tonight before relaxing very slowly thru Sunday. Mt wave action and localized surface wind gusts up to 30KT are still possible along the east slopes of the central mt chain in the meantime. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Minimum humidities will remain above 15 percent for the next seven days. Areas of poor ventilation are forecast to increase in coverage Sunday and Monday, then become widespread Tuesday and Wednesday except for pockets of ventilation improvement possible with the gusty winds across the east. Vent rates may improve further in some areas Thursday, only to drop again as poor ventilation becomes widespread again on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 23 45 23 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 10 43 10 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 20 43 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 18 50 18 52 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 48 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 20 51 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 23 50 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 29 51 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 25 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 23 59 23 63 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 26 65 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 11 38 13 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 23 41 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 21 45 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 18 39 18 42 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 13 32 14 36 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 8 38 8 42 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 15 41 13 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 18 46 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 20 48 20 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 25 43 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 22 43 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 31 49 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 28 51 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 26 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 23 52 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 27 52 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 22 53 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 27 53 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 28 47 29 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 28 52 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 30 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 26 43 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 26 44 27 48 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 23 45 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 18 47 17 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 21 42 23 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 47 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 26 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 30 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 31 49 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 19 43 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 18 46 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 16 48 17 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 19 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 28 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 22 48 21 54 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 25 55 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 26 52 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 26 55 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 30 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 56 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 60 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 33 59 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 60 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...42 ####018007477#### FXUS66 KOTX 062334 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 334 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation on Sunday. Light snow for the northern valleys and mountains with rain elsewhere. - Strong west to southwest winds Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. - Increased potential for rises along small creeks and streams and rock slides next week due to a warm and wet weather pattern. && .SYNOPSIS... A series of very wet and warm systems will move through the Inland Northwest through the middle of next week. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures, periods of heavy mountain rain, high mountain snow, and lowland rain. Strong west to southwest winds are expected Monday evening into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Saturday Night through Sunday: The Inland Northwest remains in the wake of today’s passing front, which brought drier conditions and sunshine to much of the Inland Northwest. Breezy west to southwest winds of 20-40 mph across the Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse are the result of steep low-level lapse rates mixing 35-40 mph winds from 850 mb to the surface. Winds will ease this evening after sunset. A conditionally unstable airmass combined with moist upslope flow continues to produce orographically enhanced showers over the mountains, including snow at Stevens and Lookout Passes. Temperatures near 32-34F are limiting road accumulations. A series of weather systems begins early Sunday as the parent surface low and its occlusion move into the central BC coast. Guidance shows a secondary low developing off the WA coast, lifting a warm front and a new moisture plume into the region from the south. Snow levels will be high, favoring lowland rain and high mountain snow. The exception will be across the northern valleys where cold air remains trapped. The Methow Valley has held near freezing all day today under persistent low clouds, and warm-frontal precipitation may fall as snow, which models typically handle poorly. Monday through Thursday: A long-duration atmospheric river targets the Pacific Northwest. From Monday into Tuesday, strong westerly flow will focus precipitation over the mountains and far eastern Washington. Ensemble agreement continues for a deepening surface low tracking through southern BC. With precipitable water 250–350% of normal, expect heavy mountain rain, increasing concerns for rises on small streams and localized mud/rock slides on steep, snow-free slopes. For eastern WA and north ID, the primary hazard Monday night into Tuesday will be strong winds as the cold front pushes through and the low deepens into southern Alberta. A tightening southwest pressure gradient and 850 mb winds of 40-55 kt support the following wind probabilities from the NBM for the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountains, Palouse, and Spokane area: a 50-70% chance of gusts greater than 45 mph and a 30-40% chance of gusts greater than 55 mph. A brief break in precipitation is expected early Tuesday as the moisture plume sags south into Oregon. Beyond that, guidance diverges Tuesday night through Thursday regarding the next low’s track into BC, which will dictate how far north the plume returns. If the plume stays farther south, precipitation totals would fall in the lower end of the spectrum, though a further northward placement would continue to pile on the rain totals into the mountains. This timing and placement will be refined in the coming days. Friday and Saturday: Ensembles begin to hint at a break in the pattern Friday into the weekend with a majority of ensemble guidance (~80% of GEFS/ECMWF/CMC members) favoring an amplifying ridge building over the PNW. However, this comes with some uncertainty as ~20% of solutions support a colder trough instead. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs:The influx of relatively drier are and breezy conditions this morning has improved all TAF sites to VFR. Smaller terminals across sheltered valleys in northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle valleys remain the exception with IFR and MVFR conditions. Models depict the main band of rain and snow currently located over far northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle to move east into Montana by 0Z. Breezy west to southwest wind gusts 20-30 knots (25-40 knots for KPUW/KLWS) will continue through the mid afternoon before gradually decreasing this evening. 35-45kt winds 2000 feet AGL across central Washington may result in a few hours of LLWS, particularly at KEAT, as the boundary layer decouples and the surface winds decrease after sunset. Behind the main band of precipitation, steepening low to mid level lapse rates will increase instability this afternoon. Hi res models are showing isolated showers developing primarily after 21/22Z across far eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Confidence in showers moving over a specific TAF site is overall low, with the best chances (30-40%) for KCOE/KPUW/KLWS through 03/04Z. Models generally have TAF sites remaining VFR through the day, though isolated showers could bring intermittent MVFR conditions. The next round of precipitation will move in from the south Sunday morning with a warm front. Precipitation will begin first to KEAT/KMWH around 14/15Z, spreading north into the rest of the area through the morning. Models have moderate to high confidence for at least widespread MVFR conditions redeveloping after 08Z for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and after 15Z for KLWS/KMWH/KEAT. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE also carry moderate confidence for IFR conditions after 12Z. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions over the TAF sites for the next 12 hours, with the exception of sites that see showers this afternoon and evening. Moderate to high confidence in the return of widespread MVFR conditions Sunday morning. Moderate confidence for IFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 44 34 44 39 50 41 / 40 10 90 50 90 90 Coeur d'Alene 40 34 43 39 48 41 / 70 30 90 80 100 100 Pullman 45 38 45 41 50 42 / 60 30 90 80 100 100 Lewiston 57 40 49 43 53 48 / 50 30 80 70 90 100 Colville 37 24 39 31 46 32 / 50 10 100 50 90 80 Sandpoint 39 31 41 36 45 38 / 90 40 100 90 100 100 Kellogg 40 36 41 39 47 41 / 100 80 100 100 100 100 Moses Lake 55 36 49 37 52 41 / 10 10 80 10 70 60 Wenatchee 53 38 46 39 51 41 / 20 30 90 30 80 80 Omak 40 31 41 34 44 34 / 20 10 90 20 70 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$