####018004849#### FXUS64 KTSA 091712 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1112 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Patchy fog is possible through this morning mainly near and south of the Ouachitas, especially in the valleys. - Warm and breezy conditions likely today, with gusts up to 30 mph promoting limited fire weather potential this afternoon. - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this weekend and early next week. - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Patchy fog remains possible this morning in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties with visibilities locally falling below a mile or less. Isolated instances of freezing fog could develop as temperatures fall to near freezing, but coverage and any impacts are currently expected to remain limited and no advisory is planned with this forecast package. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. Downsloping SW flow strengthens today as lee troughing tightens pressure gradients this afternoon. This will result in breezy conditions and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above average for this time of year. Southwest winds intensify by late morning and afternoon, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. As a result, limited fire weather conditions develop this afternoon as min RHs fall into the 35-45% range and it has been one to two weeks since the last wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Winds decrease after sunset but remain elevated through the overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front. This will help hold low temperatures tonight mostly in the 40s in the pre-frontal environment. By late Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning, the front advances through the FA, bringing a slightly cooler airmass to the area. High pressure fills into the region during the day Wednesday with highs in the 50s and dry conditions persisting. Southwest flow then returns on Thursday as high pressure moves east and lee troughing redevelops over the high plains. High temperatures again climb into the upper 50s or lower 60s with breezy conditions. Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday, cooling temperatures for Friday, especially across NE OK and NW AR, where highs may struggle to exceed 50 degrees. Yet another cold front is projected to move through the FA over the weekend, pulling high temperatures back into the 30s or 40s for much of the area to start next week. Overall, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period under dry northwest flow aloft. However, there is some indication that low level moisture may creep into SE OK and W AR ahead of the front this weekend, with some showers possible. Will hold PoPs just below mentionable at this time, but an increase may be required if it appears moisture will expand this far west prior to FROPA. Apart from the series of dry cold fronts to end the week, generally quiet weather is forecast through the long term, with no hazardous weather expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with aviation impacts over the next 24 hours focused on winds and low level wind shear potential. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to develop early this afternoon across all the terminals, with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range common. These gusts will continue into the evening at the far NW AR terminals, as well as MLC, with low level wind shear concerns also developing during the evening hours at these same sites and FSM. A cold front will move through the TAF sites late in the period, with gusty northerly winds beginning before dawn at BVO and closer to mid to late morning in W AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 43 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 59 40 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 61 41 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 62 39 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 57 40 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 58 43 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 41 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 58 40 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 F10 63 42 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 59 39 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...22 ####018002105#### FXUS64 KAMA 091713 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1113 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1004 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 -No impactful weather conditions are expected over the next seven days, with fair weather conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1004 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fair weather conditions, with very low probabilities (near 0%) of impactful weather conditions are expected. H500 NW flow separating an active northern stream jet from a weaker and more tame southern CONUS jet-stream will favor mostly clear skies for the Panhandles. Temperatures tomorrow will drop around 10 degrees or so compared to today as a cold front moves south through the Panhandles tomorrow morning. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 50s across the northern Panhandles to near 60 degrees for portions of the southern TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1004 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 H500 NW flow to eventual zonal flow as seen in the latest 09/12Z model and numerical data indicates tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue throughout the long term forecast period. After temperatures being well above average for Thursday, temperatures will drop to only slightly above average for Thursday through Saturday. By Sunday, if another back door cold front enters the NE Panhandles, some below average temperatures could move into portions of the region, in particular the eastern Panhandles. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will generally range from westerly to northerly at 5-15 kts with mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29 ####018004068#### FXUS64 KMAF 091714 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1114 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Above-normal temperatures are expected into next week, despite weak cold fronts moving through the region. - No precipitation will occur throughout West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The Short Term remains quiet. Highs today warm relative to yesterday as breezy southwesterly to westerly winds develop and we remain under northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s areawide. For references, these highs are about 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, lows tonight dip down into the 40s for most (30s in the typical cool spots). By Wednesday morning, a front arrives, yielding gusty northerly to northeasterly winds through the day. That being said, this front's impact on highs will be somewhat limited, as it only knocks temperatures down 4-7 degrees relative to today's. Skies remain clear through the period, and rain chances are nil. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 We start the Long Term period off with temperatures well-above normal as winds veer southwesterly to westerly and weak ridging aloft sets in. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 70s for most on Thursday. What has changed since yesterday is the cold front that is expected to move into our northern counties by Friday looks to be weaker and become more diffuse. As such, Friday afternoon highs only drop a couple degrees for some (as opposed to 60s). Another change is that the NBM is now running on the higher end of guidance (75th percentile) for Saturday as well. Given the latest guidance and cluster analysis, this makes sense as models are depicting higher heights in the data and the cold front is not expected to be as strong. However, this may change as there is still a lot of spread amongst the ensembles. There are some indications that a stronger cold front may move through the area by Saturday night, giving rise to the possibility that temperatures may drop below normal. By the start of next week, models indicate southerly return flow and ridging overhead, bringing temperatures back up once again. As always, we will continue to monitor trends in the data and make changes to the forecast as needed. The extended forecast remains on track with respect to remaining dry. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds are in store across most terminals early this afternoon lasting through the early evening hours. There is medium (40-60%) confidence in sustained winds up to 15 kts along with occasional wind gusts up to 20-25 kts occurring this afternoon, especially across MAF, HOB, and PEQ terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 42 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 42 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 60 41 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 69 42 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 67 34 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 43 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 44 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 39 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11