####018004801#### FXUS63 KEAX 150001 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 701 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few isolated storms are possible tonight. A strong storm or two capable of producing large hail or damaging winds are possible. * Much warmer and more humid conditions Friday and through the weekend. * Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Friday and into weekend. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats. * Cold front is expected to build south early next week. Cooler, drier and more stable conditions are expected behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Gusty southeast winds have developed across the region with surface high pressure continuing to shift east and deepening low pressure across southeast Colorado. With dry airmass across the region, have seen near red flag conditions but 10 hour fuel moisture remains elevated. Wind gust should gradually diminish through the evening hours as the near surface layer decouples from winds aloft. 40-50 knot low level jet is going to lead to increasing low level moisture across the region tonight. Shortwave across northwestern KS as of 20Z is expected to progress east into ribbon of instability across central KS, potentially leading to storm development in the late afternoon and evening hours. Storm initialization height will be important in terms of potential for severe type. If storms are able to develop closer to the surface, shear including the low level jet will be strong enough to allow storms to organize and potentially produce hail; however, if storms are high based enough above the low level jet, mid level shear alone is somewhat weak, limiting severe threat to primarily wind as low level jet is brought to the surface by the downdraft. Shortwave is expected to move across northern Missouri this evening potentially leading to a storm or two. Moisture above capping inversion could lead to additional early morning showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday morning, but the more elevated storms, the weaker the shear. Low level moisture is expected to climb throughout the day on Friday with continued southerly flow originating from the Gulf. Capping inversion looks substantial enough to prevent surface based convection from developing throughout the day. Clearing skies could lead to strong insolation with surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s F - with a few locations topping out in the lower 90s across northwestern Missouri. As the low level jet increases across the plains Friday evening, could see additional storms develop in eastern KS/ far western Missouri on the nose of the low level jet. Large scale shear Friday night is somewhat weaker Friday night (0-6 km bulk shear near 30 knots), but instability is much greater with surface based CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg owing largely to steep mid level lapse rates. This is what is driving the hatched hail threat on the SPC outlook. Unstable atmosphere remains across the area through the weekend with additional shortwaves originating from deepening trough across the western US. Deterministic models are beginning to slow the progression of cold front early next week as area of low pressure develops along the front across the western plains. Timing of the front will be critical to severe weather threat, however, storms along the front look to provide the greatest widespread threat for severe weather across the region with all severe hazards possible (large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes). With the potential slower progression of the front, SPC extended severe threat into Tuesday. Once the front moves through the area, cooler and drier conditions are expected the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Intermittent wind gusts continue for the next hour or two as the sun sets. Pockets of LLWS ~1000-2000ft AGL are possible as the nocturnal inversion establishes itself over the next few hours. RA/TSRA to the west is expected to dissipate as it approaches the terminals with a potential for more TSRA development north of STJ and IRK. Winds become more southerly tomorrow with some intermittent gusts possible. Additional TSRA development is possible late in the TAF period (<20 percent), but chances increases beyond this TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Pesel ####018007057#### FXUS61 KGYX 150004 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 804 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A River Flood Warning has been issued for the Pemigewasset River at Woodstock as the River is forecast to climb just above minor flood stage tonight. Overall forecast remains on track with the axis of moderate to heavy rain lifting north of southern NH and now extends from the White Mountains through coastal SW Maine. Otherwise, minor update to the Aviation section for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Rain continues, heavy at times, overnight. Some minor flooding of flashy rivers and urban areas/small streams is possible where rainfall totals approach 3 inches. 2. Warmer than normal temperatures arrive beginning this weekend, and may be much above normal parts of next week. Warmer temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will allow for some scattered thunderstorms in the evenings of both days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper low pressure is beginning move south of Long Island at this hour. As it does so a strengthening warm conveyor belt will remain focused over NH and slowly lift north and pivot thru the night into a more east/west orientation. Where the pivot ultimately occurs will determine who gets the highest totals and where flooding may potentially be an issue. There has been a gradual increase in QPF across model guidance into this morning. I have noted the 14.00z HREF to 14.12z HREF mean and max 24 hour QPF both increasing slightly. Mean QPF amounts are now 2 to 2.5 inches across both the Upper Valley of NH and parts of southwestern Maine. Max amounts are approaching 5 inches. Local research has suggested that while location tends to be harder to pinpoint, the max QPF amounts tend to occur more often than not somewhere in the local forecast area. While rainfall rates have not been extreme so far today, another 6 to 8 hours of 0.25"/hr will result in 3 to 4 inch totals given what has already fallen. Generally speaking we need those totals in 6 hours in order to really be worried about flash flooding. Considering the forecast I anticipate that the flashier rivers may approach minor flooding, more likely rising to action stage, though we will have to watch the upper Pemi basin. Otherwise some small stream and urban flooding is possible where the heaviest rain occurs. It is possible some areal flood warning may be necessary, potentially transitioning to advisories near the morning commute time to highlight any lingering water on roadways. Rain will continue to taper to showers overnight and by midday Fri should be largely done. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in from the southwest Saturday and settles southeast of New England Sunday setting up mostly fair weather with highs in the 70s Saturday pushing into the low 80s Sunday. Water temperatures remain cold with inland lakes around 50 degrees and ocean temperatures in the 40s. The combination of warm and fair weather may lure people to the water and will likely need cold water safety messaging. A back door front brings a bit of a cool down Monday with sea breeze keeping coastal areas and parts of central Maine below 70F on Monday, with lower 70s mainly confined to areas west of I-95. Monday night, winds calm and shift to southwesterlies. This will allow for warm air and moisture advection, with temperatures and dewpoints running at least 10F warmer on Tuesday. High temperatures near 90F can not be ruled out over southern New Hampshire, with below 70F high temperatures staying confined to the Midcoast. The daytime heating and extra moisture looks to collide with a cold front moving southward Tuesday afternoon. Soundings are already showing an unstable environment across northern New England with 500- 1000J of CAPE and around 30kts of wind shear. Within this environment, storms may contain at least small hail and gusty winds. Another hotter day is forecast on Wednesday as well, with high temperatures maybe only a couple degrees cooler from Tuesday. Another cold front looks to move southeastward Wednesday afternoon, arriving into another unstable environment Wednesday evening, with at least 1000J of CAPE and 35kts of shear. So between Tuesday and Wednesday night, it seems likely that Wednesday night's storms could pose more of a severe threat than Tuesdays. With both days, a small marine layer along the coast is likely to keep stronger storms confined to the interior. Temperatures start cooling off further for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through Friday evening: IFR to LIFR conditions are now present along coastal terminals due to low cigs and visibility restrictions in RA/BR. Conditions trend towards MVFR inland while cigs will lower here overnight with a trend towards IFR. All sites will likely be near IFR into Friday morning except HIE where conditions stay MVFR. Rain will continue to spread north and eventually stall and drift back south while scattering out to more showery conditions by morning. It may take until the second half of Fri until widespread VFR conditions return. Outlook: Friday Night: VFR conditions expected. Saturday: VFR conditions expected. Saturday Night: VFR conditions expected. Sunday: VFR conditions expected. Sunday Night: VFR conditions expected. Monday: VFR conditions expected. Monday Night: VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Onshore winds will gradually turn more northeasterly tonight. There may be occasional 25 kt gusts on the coastal waters overnight. SCA remains in effect but this is mainly for building seas, which will climb above 5 feet this evening and may linger there thru Sat morning. Areas of fog may be possible tonight into Fri as warm advection continues across the Gulf of Maine. Winds pick up to SCA levels from the southwest Saturday night, with 4-6ft seas expected. Winds become light and variable Sunday night and Monday with seas of 2-3ft expected early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain has fallen across parts of southwestern NH so far today and additional rainfall of up to 3 or 4 inches remains possible overnight. While this amount of rainfall is not expected to cause flash flooding concerns, it may lead to urban or poor drainage flooding. Also depending on where the rainfall maximum sets up, some of the flashier rivers may approach minor flood stage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Legro/Palmer/Schroeter AVIATION...Legro/Palmer/Schroeter MARINE...Legro/Palmer