####018006915#### FXUS61 KRLX 110124 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 924 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather into the weekend. The chance for rain showers again Saturday afternoon as an upper level system crosses. Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 900 PM Friday... Have tweaked temperatures, PoPs, and cloud cover for tonight, but the forecast largely remains on track. Lingering and highly isolated showers will continue to exit/dissipate over the next hour or two, giving way to a dry overnight as a weak upper wave exits east, and subtle upper level ridging builds in. This allows for a chilly night ahead amid developing valley fog. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the lowlands, while mid 30s to 40 in the mountains. Cannot entirely rule out a bit of patchy frost in some of the high elevation mountain valleys late tonight. But given the potential for some fog and/or stratus development, confidence in frost is low, and thinking is that it would be rather isolated. Therefore will forego any highlight via SPS/HWO. As of 215 PM Friday... Drier air associated with high pressure was allowing clearing to slowly edge through the middle Ohio Valley this afternoon, while clouds and showers persisted farther east. Improvement should continue into tonight, with the showers ending as a mid-upper level short wave trough exits by sunset. Clearing and light wind tonight per high pressure ridging into the area from the southwest will allow areas of valley fog to form, but there may also be enough residual low level moisture for low clouds to form before dawn Saturday. Either or should dissipate after daybreak Saturday. Clearing tonight may allow night owls to catch some aurora activity if they head away from city lights to somewhere with a clear view of the northern sky. Head to the Space Weather Prediction Center's website for more info on the G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov. Another mid-upper level short wave trough is likely to bring a band of showers across the area from west to east on Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes per mid level cooling in concert with daytime heating. A mid level inversion should be just high enough for cells to grow tall enough for charge separation, and even small hail per dry entrainment, which will also promote gusty winds. Echo top temperatures should lower into the -20s C at least across the north. Central guidance reflects surface temperatures modestly below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... Remaining precipitation largely exits to the east by daybreak Sunday. Ridging building into the region then yields mainly dry conditions through the day Monday amidst a warm-up. Deep southwesterly flow associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect moisture back into the region Monday afternoon but any precipitation is expected to hold off until Monday night && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level forcing in the form of an upper low emerging from the Central Rockies arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning yielding an uptick in precipitation coverage. The risk for severe storms through this period appears low given limited opportunity for surface heating and poor mid-level lapse rates. As flow weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday, could see some slower moving storm cores that could present a risk for some localized water issues, and WPC has painted a marginal risk for this over the region. Broader scale, but still transient ridging returns Thursday with any lingering risk for showers and storms becoming primarily diurnally driven. The next synoptically driven chance of precipitation arrives late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM Friday... Isolated showers continue to shift southeast across portions of the area through 2-3Z Saturday, potentially causing an isolated and very brief MVFR VSBY restriction here or there. Otherwise, VFR conditions persist into tonight, with valley fog being the main concern, along with the potential for MVFR stratus in/near the higher terrain. Restrictions associated with stratus are low confidence. There is higher confidence in valley fog development overnight, with MVFR to LIFR VSBY restrictions progged (depending on the terminal). Any fog and/or stratus lifts/dissipates by ~ 13Z on Saturday, leading to a return of widespread VFR in advance of another round of rain. SCT showers and ISOL thunderstorms move across the area throughout Saturday afternoon, resulting in brief MVFR VSBY at times. Light and variable or calm flow is expected tonight. Strengthening southwest flow is expected on Saturday. Wind gusts of 15-20 kts are possible during the afternoon through the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY is possible on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP NEAR TERM...TRM/GW SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GW