####018004903#### FXUS65 KPUB 040530 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow will continue this evening for portions of the area, with the heaviest along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa area. - Drier weather returns Thursday, though with below seasonal temperatures for many. - Northwest flow to prevail through the entire fcst period with several weaker disturbances moving through bringing on and off snow to mainly the central mountains. - Gradual warming trend next 10 days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Tonight: For Wednesday night, busy weather is expected early, with quieter conditions returning by Thursday morning. The wave bringing a snowy Wednesday to the area will be continuing its push to the southeast, bringing increased synoptic forcing and keeping modest moisture in place. Given this, snow is still expected to be ongoing during the evening hours and into the early overnight hours. The heaviest of this additional snowfall is anticipated across the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and into the Raton Mesa, where surface upsloping will be ongoing in conjunction with the broader synoptic ascent. Otherwise, light snow will still be ongoing across a large portion of the county warning area during the evening as the wave treks over. With that all said, the wave is anticipated to start exiting the region quickly overnight, with the trough axis passing over during the early overnight hours. As this takes place, forcing will start to substantially decrease, with subsidence and drier air increasing behind the wave. Given this, dry conditions are expected to prevail across the region by mid to late overnight, though an isolated mountain snow shower can't be ruled out given some modest orographic forcing persisting. Beyond all of that, expansive cloud cover will progressively thin out in coverage by Thursday morning, with winds remaining fairly light at around and less than 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, while the colder airmass and snow will help to drop temperatures, the cloud cover is anticipated to limit overall cooling potential. With that all said, the plains are expected to fall into the mid 10s to mid 20s, the valleys into the 10s, and the mountains to around zero. Tomorrow: Heading into Thursday, a much quieter weather day is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will be in place behind the midweek system, and given no major forcing, dry conditions are anticipated for the region. With that said though, an isolated snow shower will be possible along the mountains, especially early in the day, given modest orographic forcing persisting. Otherwise, clouds will continue to thin in coverage, with mostly clear skies by mid afternoon, with winds remaining relatively light around 10 mph. As for temperatures, a cool day is expected for much of the region, with below seasonal values. Given that, the plains will rise into the low 30s to mid 40s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the 10s to 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Northwest flow at mid levels will dominate the pattern during the long term fcst period. Several disturbances will move southeast in the flow aloft, but none of these systems are expected to be as strong as the system moving across today. Most of the precip with these disturbances will occur over the central mountains. Additionally. the longwave pattern will SLOWLY push eastward during this period, and this will allow for a slow gradual warming trend through the weekend into next week. By late next week we may see temps in the 60s and 70s over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Conditions continue to improve across the forecast area late tonight as snowfall pushes to the south. Will maintain mention of light snow for all three TAF sites through 08z, then activity should taper off. Plan on continued IFR conditions for most areas, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, through 14-15z Thu morning, then VFR conditions afterwards for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds are forecast to remain light, generally less than 12 kts. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ065- 067>070-072>075-078>080-087. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ066-071- 088. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MOORE ####018010149#### FXUS66 KPQR 040530 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 930 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Today is the last dry day before a series of fronts will bring a period of wet weather Thursday through at least the middle of next week across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. Ensemble guidance suggests a potentially impactful atmospheric river event next Monday into midweek, though uncertainty is very high. && .DISCUSSION...Wednesday afternoon through Tuesday...Today is the last dry day in at least the next week before a series of weather systems associated with Pacific moisture produce multiple rounds of widespread rain over NW Oregon and SW Washington. Although today remains dry, satellite imagery indicates mid- to high-level clouds streaming over the region Wednesday afternoon ahead of the first frontal system. These clouds are keeping temperatures on the cooler side with 2 PM PST temperature observations in the low to mid 40s across much of the interior except for the 30s over the Cascades. Areas of patchy fog and frost are possible for interior valleys once again late tonight through early tomorrow morning before rain begins spreading inland. Upper level high pressure over the region and into the eastern Pacific will become more zonal over the next couple of days as the first weather system moves over the ridge. A warm front associated with this weather system will approach the coast from the northwest late tonight, then stall just off of the coast through tomorrow. This will bring the first round of widespread rain, beginning around midnight to 3AM along the northern coast then quickly spreading inland through the early morning hours with showers continuing through the night. Due to the northwest orientation of winds, the Willamette Valley will likely be rain shadowed and see lower rain accumulations. By Friday morning, the cold front begins moving closer to the coast, pushing the warm front inland. This cold front will bring a stronger surge of moisture with IVT values peaking around 500-700 kg/m/s, and round two of widespread heavier rain impacts the region through Friday afternoon. The flow will be more westerly at this point, allowing more precipitation to fall in the Willamette Valley. The precipitation amounts through Saturday night are expected to be around 0.4-0.6 inches for the central and southern Willamette Valley, 0.6-1 inch from the Portland area north through the I-5 corridor, 0.9-2 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 0.9-3 inches along the Cascades. Some elevated winds are likely as the cold front passes through on Friday with a 20-40% chance of wind gusts of at least 30 mph for inland valleys and a 50-75% chance along the coast. There's a 20-50% chance of gusts of 40 mph or higher along the Cascades. Guidance suggests the cold front might stall and weaken over the PacNW into Saturday, with showers lingering through Saturday. Then, another frontal system is slated to move through the area on Sunday. Ensembles indicate IVT values could peak around 400-500 kg/m/s with this frontal system which would produce another surge of widespread rainfall. A bit uncertainty exists in rain amounts during this 48 hour period. Looking at the 25th to 75th percentiles, the interior lowlands could receive anywhere from 0.3-1 inch of rain, lowest amounts in the southern Willamette Valley. The coast, Coast Range, and Cascades could see anywhere from 0.5-2.5 inches, lowest in Lane and Lincoln counties. Impacts are not expected with rain amounts Thursday through Sunday, unless rain rates exceed 0.2-0.3 inches for multiple hours over certain watersheds leading to rivers that are prone to flooding quickly, such as the Grays at Rosburg and Willapa River at Willapa. This will be something to monitor during heaviest periods of rain. The main period of concern for the forecast period is next week as ensemble guidance continues to indicate the potential for an impactful atmospheric river event Monday through Wednesday. Significant uncertainty still remains in the length of elevated IVT values, location of the moisture along the WA and OR coast, and exact peak of IVT values (the 12z GEFS mean is around 550 kg/m/s with +1 standard deviation around 800 kg/m/s and the 12z Euro EPS mean is around 700 kg/m/s with +1 standard deviation around 900 kg/m/s). These factors have jumped around between forecast runs over the past 24 hours and will likely continue to fluctuate until we get closer to the event. There is the potential that this ends up being another moderate atmospheric river event, similar to the preceding events. If this is the case, impacts are likely to be minimal once again. However, if a strong to extreme atmospheric river event materializes, there is the potential for widespread river flooding and/or wind damage as soils will already be saturated and river levels higher from the rain from the 4 days prior. The main period for river flood concerns is Tuesday into Wednesday as it takes time after rain begins for rivers to rise. HEFS guidance indicates a 10-25% chance of rivers reaching Minor flooding for Coast Range and Coastal rivers and 5-20% chance for Willamette River tributaries, mainly focused on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly beyond depending on the rain forecast and/or response times of the rivers. Additionally, there are signals for breezy winds with the frontal passage, although the ensemble spread remains very wide leading to low certainty. If winds do end up even around 30-40 mph, saturated soils could cause some localized impacts due to downed trees. Keep an eye on this forecast, especially if you live in flood prone regions. -03 && .AVIATION...Largely VFR flying conditions remain in place across the region, with intermittent MVFR cigs at terminals along the Lower Columbia and in the Portland area head of an approaching frontal system. Abundant low-level moisture will favor widespread MVFR cigs inland as rain begins by 12-15z Thu. Ahead of the onset of rainfall, the southern Willamette Valley may see enough clearing to yield areas of IFR vis/cigs within fog and mist after 09-12z Thu, including at KEUG. As rain continues through the morning, there are 50-60% chances for IFR cigs for most inland terminals, however cigs look to lift into the afternoon while chances for vis restrictions increase after 18-21z Thu. Calm to light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south to southeast at around 5 kt. Along the coast, there is higher confidence in persistent VFR conditions are expected overnight with light offshore flow, before cigs trend downward to MVFR as rain begins by 09-12z Thu along the southern WA and northern OR coast, and by 12-15z along the central and southern OR coast. While MVFR conditions are most likely after 12z Thu, there is a 10-20% chance of IFR cigs Thursday afternoon as rain continues. Winds will turn out of the south-southwest and increase to around 10 kt by 18z Thu. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs expected ahead of precipitation onset by 12z Thu with calm to light and variable winds. 40-60% chance of IFR cigs through the early morning, trending toward MVFR by Thursday afternoon with southerly to southeasterly winds around 5 kt. -36 && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters today will maintain northerly winds 10 kt or less through tonight. Seas around 6 to 7 ft continue to subside as well. Active weather returns as winds turn southerly on Thursday ahead of the first in a series of fronts. Chances for frequent wind gusts greater than 21 kt remain below 15% on Thursday, with winds turning more westerly behind the front. However, another slightly stronger front moving through on Friday will bring a 50-70% chance for wind gusts greater than 21 kt, with the highest chances north of Cape Foulweather. Will likely need to issue a Small Craft Advisory for Friday with the upcoming forecast package. The only Small Craft Advisories in effect right now are for the Columbia River Bar this afternoon and Thursday afternoon due to very strong ebbs bringing seas in the Main Channel up to 9-10 ft. A series of fronts continue through the weekend and into early next week. There is a 50-60% chance for isolated gale force wind gusts on Monday, but chances for frequent and widespread Gales are only 15-30%. Seas remain around 6-8 ft at 11-12 seconds through Friday, building on Saturday due to an increasing west-northwesterly swell. There is a 60-80% chance of seas exceeding 10 feet by late Friday night into Saturday morning. -10 && .BEACH HAZARDS...There is a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal overflow flooding during high tide from 9 AM to 3 PM Thursday and Friday for the South Washington Coast and the Clatsop County Coast in Oregon. Minor flooding up to 1 foot above ground level is possible during high tide in low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the low reaches of the coastal rivers. Coastal residents in the warned area should remain alert for rising water and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for ORZ101. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for ORZ101. WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for WAZ201. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for WAZ201. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM PST Thursday for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland ####018007948#### FXUS65 KCYS 040530 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will pick up again Thursday morning in the wind prone areas. Another round of High Wind Warnings have been issued. - Areas of blowing snow Thursday may impact travel conditions in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming. - Long term remains active with multiple systems promoting prolonged periods of high winds, light snow and cold but steadily warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Last night's storm system is on its way out today, with radar showing fairly minimal snow shower activity mainly confined to the area along the CO border. Satellite imagery shows low cloud cover beginning to break up as a drier airmass works its way into the area. Expect skies to clear fully this evening, but this may allow for a window of radiative cooling to push areas of patchy fog and/or low clouds back into portions of the area. Confidence is not particularly high in fog development, but we will need to keep an eye on this into Thursday morning. With mainly clear skies, fairly light winds, and some fresh snow cover, temperatures were dropped several degrees below guidance in the typical colder valley spots, such as Laramie and Saratoga. If winds pick up faster, or if these areas develop fog quickly, we may not get quite so cold. Attention will quickly shift back to yet another wind event on Thursday morning. Surface high pressure will build into the interior Rockies while pressure falls over the High Plains tonight, increasing the MSLP gradient across our mountain barriers. In addition, a weak shortwave passing to our north will bump up 700-mb height gradients as it passes nearby. In-house guidance is rather aggressive, showing nearly 80% probabilities for high winds along the I-80 wind prone areas. This should be taken with the caveat that the tool is based on the GFS, which has the strongest pressure gradients of any global model. While various wind parameters are less impressive in other models such as the NAM and the ECMWF, they are still marginally supporting of strong to high winds. Therefore, there was enough confidence to issue another High Wind Warning, focusing on only the gap wind areas since this appears to be primarily a surface driven wind event. This will likely come in two phases, but there was not enough confidence in the timing or duration of the potential low to split into two separate warnings. The first favorable period is Thursday morning when an initial shortwave trough passes to the north. The 700-mb height gradient relaxes slightly Thursday afternoon, while the surface high pressure over the interior Rockies also weakens with its typical diurnal cycle, briefly reducing the MSLP gradient. Both of these trends should reverse quickly after sundown Thursday, with the Thursday night period actually showing the best signal for strong to high winds. The second period Thursday night may also send off a few mountain waves closer to the I-25 corridor, but high wind criteria is fairly low probability at this time (about 20%). In addition to the winds, the higher elevations of I-80 received several inches of snow this morning. Without much time to crust over, blowing snow could be an issue for travel between Cheyenne and Rawlins. This was introduced into the official forecast and is messaged within the High Wind Warning. It is uncertain whether the blowing snow will be enough to cause significant visibility reductions, but slick conditions extending into Thursday look probable. The Bordeaux area (and all of I-25 between about Chugwater and Glendo) received very little snowfall this morning, so that warning does not include blowing snow messaging. However, portions of WY-34 across the central Laramie Range could see some areas of blowing snow. Moisture embedded in the northwest flow aloft will also increase quickly Thursday night, promoting moist upslope flow into the higher mountain peaks of southeast Wyoming. Look for orographic snowfall to resume Thursday night into Friday. This will likely continue for several more days too, but we'll hold off on any headlines until it gets a little closer to get some finer detail on timing and any potential breaks within the period. Elsewhere, look for seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Ensemble clusters continue to depict northwest flow across the central and northern Rockies through next week with slight variations in the zonal vs meridional component by early next week. Overall with ridging centered over or just offshore southern California and dominant troughing in the Canadian Maritimes it does not look to be a particularly amplified pattern the next several days with low amplitude shortwaves keeping active precipitation chances in the mountains which occasionally spill into the adjacent zones and high plains through the period. Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the period with highs on the front range and NE panhandle reaching into the 50s early next week. Most notably through the extended will be periods of high to very high winds especially early next week. - Snow Chances The high elevation snow that starts on Friday in the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges will continue through the weekend with the bulk of the snowfall coming on Saturday and tapering off on Sunday. Elevations above 7000ft in the Sierra and 8000ft in the Snowy can expect greater than 6" from Friday to Sunday and 1-3 feet for areas over 9000ft elevation. A few more weak shortwaves then rotate through the northwest flow later in the period bringing more chances for light snow to the higher elevations but the snow shadow should be in effect for the front range with only a dusting expected through the extended period. - Wind, Wind, and More Wind Breezy for some of the high elevations on Saturday though not sold on high wind criteria just yet as in house guidance shows things improving markedly from the high wind warning that is in effect from Thursday morning into Friday morning. Currently looking at a 20-40% chance for high wind criteria for that Saturday surge. Looking further ahead to early next week 700mb flow of 50-60 kts and as high as 70-75 kts combined with deeply negative omega will bring strong winds to the surface early next week. Ensembles certainly support this with mean gusts ranging from 50-60 mph on the low end for the wind prone areas with this being another long duration event lasting from Monday well into the heart of next week. There is even a greater than 30% chance that lower elevation areas on the front range like Cheyenne proper get in on the fun by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 VLIFR conditions currently at KLAR may hold firm over the next several hours while elsewhere several other terminals may see CIGs and VIS lower. By 12Z, this threat ends and VFR conditions return for the remainder of this TAF period. Winds will ramp up by 18Z Thursday, impacting all terminals with westerly gusts up to 35 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MST Friday for WYZ106. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon MST Friday for WYZ110-116. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RZ ####018007565#### FXUS62 KTAE 040531 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - High rain chances beginning Thursday night and lasting into Sunday. Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible through the weekend, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 The beginning of a fairly wet pattern, especially considering the widespread drought conditions we've seen over the last 2 months, will begin late Thursday as next system approaches the region. Before the wet pattern commences, surface high pressure will fill into the region this afternoon following yesterday's cold front. With some clearing and relatively light winds, we'll cool off a few degrees more than this morning and by Thursday morning most areas should be in the low 40s and mid to upper 30s. For Thursday, surface high pressure will continues its eastward trek as a belt of stronger upper level southwesterlies develops into the evening. Increasing upper level cloud cover and sustained low- level warm advection east of a developing surface low will mean increasing cloudiness and rain chances from west to east by the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 For the long term period beginning Thursday night, a much wetter pattern will take shape across the region. The wet pattern will largely be driven by multiple waves traversing the elevated southwesterly flow aloft from Thursday night into Sunday. The first wave arrives Thursday night into Friday. In addition to widespread rainfall across southwest Georgia, Panhandle, and southeast Alabama, some limited thunderstorm potential will exist across our marine zones and Florida counties where elevated instability will exist. After this wave moves through the front should stall across the northern Gulf. As the next wave moves in, widespread isentropic ascent should lead to a broad area of steady stratiform rain Saturday into Sunday. Some heavy rain can't be ruled out on Sunday as another weak surface low develops along the boundary as the final wave in the upper levels moves through. While there is some uncertainty in the arrival of the waves and the exact timing of the heavier amounts, there is at least high probabilities that nearly the entire forecast area will see beneficial rainfall of at least an inch, with a majority of the forecast area most likely seeing around 2 inches. When accounting for some of the higher end possibilities, widespread rainfall amounts could reach 3 to 4 inches in some of the heavier hit areas by the time the weekend ends. As for temperatures, we'll generally see near normal to slightly- below normal temperatures from Friday into next week as the cloudy and rainy conditions keep temperatures down in the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions continue the rest of the night with a light northeasterly breeze. Conditions deteriorate as rain moves in from the west Thursday morning. Confidence is highest for KDHN and KABY for steady light to moderate rain much of the day with IFR ceilings developing as soon as the rain begins. The PROB30 groups were maintained for KTLH and KVLD, as confidence wasn't quite there to go prevailing rain and low ceilings quite yet, but MVFR to IFR ceilings cannot be entirely ruled out at this time and may be introduced in future TAF packages. There does appear to be a bit of a lull in the rain later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, but left drizzle in the TAFs for KABY and KDHN along with lower ceilings as a hedge in case the rain currently forecast for central AL/GA is a bit more south than expected. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected, but, admittedly, confidence isn't the highest this far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient brings easterly to northeasterly winds to near cautionary levels west of Apalachicola Thursday. Southerly winds are forecast Friday as an area of low pressure meanders along the northern Gulf Coast with the potential for advisory level winds Friday into Saturday. Rounds of scattered rain and possibly a few thunderstorms is then likely into the weekend until the main front pushes through on Monday bringing an end to the rain. Some advisory or cautionary level winds are possible behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 High pressure combined with ample low-level moisture and an inversion will keep dispersions low today and again Thursday. As our next weather system moves in, rain chances increase from west to east during the day Thursday with a couple rounds of rain anticipated again Friday and Saturday. Aside from low dispersions into the weekend, this will keep fire concerns low as the chances for wetting rains increase significantly. On the low end rainfall amounts range around 0.5 to 1.0 inches across the region, but if the right conditions align, some localized rainfall amounts by the end of the weekend could near 3 to 5 inches. While these amounts will not bring an end to the drought they would be sufficient enough to bring a much longer pause in fire weather && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Several rounds of rain are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. By the time a cold front swings through later this weekend, widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast, with the higher totals anticipated along and north of a line near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. The lower end of the rainfall amounts are currently forecast across the Florida Big Bend and into south- central Georgia. Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should they train over our more urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 71 53 63 / 60 90 60 80 Panama City 50 71 53 63 / 50 90 70 80 Dothan 45 57 48 56 / 60 90 80 80 Albany 45 57 48 56 / 60 100 80 80 Valdosta 48 70 51 62 / 40 90 70 80 Cross City 52 77 58 72 / 10 50 50 60 Apalachicola 54 73 57 66 / 40 80 60 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs ####018003699#### FXUS64 KBMX 040533 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025 - Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next seven days. - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday, potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85 corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025 Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday, with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend. The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85 corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected is additional relief from the ongoing drought. By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions returning to the region. During the process, another shot of reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise, temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of the year. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025 Reduced visibility ongoing at AUO and TCL currently. Will monitor trends but have included a TEMPO for low vis at both terminals through 10z. Rain will begin to overspread the area by morning, first affecting MGM and AUO. Rain is also possible at EET, TCL, and BHM during the morning hours, with chances increasing during the afternoon. Ceilings are likely to fall through MVFR during the morning and afternoon to IFR by tomorrow evening as rain continues. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the only impact across the region will be continued drought relief. Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather concerns will remain limited through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 28 50 35 51 / 0 30 90 50 Anniston 30 50 38 52 / 0 40 100 60 Birmingham 31 50 40 51 / 10 50 90 40 Tuscaloosa 32 49 38 51 / 20 80 90 40 Calera 32 51 39 53 / 10 60 90 50 Auburn 35 49 43 54 / 10 70 90 80 Montgomery 34 49 43 54 / 20 80 90 70 Troy 35 49 41 55 / 20 90 90 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...12 ####018007280#### FXUS61 KPBZ 040534 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1234 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry and chilly weather today. A frontal passage late tonight and early Thursday provides a light snow accumulation and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Below-normal temperatures and additional mainly light snow chances should continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Arctic cold front arriving late tonight with some snow - Threat of refreezing on roads for the morning commute --------------------------------------------------------------- A deeper upper level trough axis set to swiftly cross the eastern Great Lakes region through Thursday afternoon is push a frontal boundary southeast early Thursday morning, favoring 4am-11am (northwest to southeast). Despite meager moisture profiles, enough jet aided ascent plus frontogenesis will create an area of relatively light snow showers ahead of this boundary with potential for a narrow, moderate snow near the frontal zone. This snow will reach northwest PA by 9pm and slowly advance southeast through Thursday morning, with peak accumulation rates occuring near the morning commute. Probabilities suggest totals will be light (less than 20% for most locations, with some upslope potential aiding higher chances along the Laurel Highlands), mitigating any headline issuance. However, the combination of up to 0.25"/hr rates and cold surface temperatures means snow may stick to area roadways (especially elevated surfaces), potentially creating slick surfaces. A Special Weather Statement was issued through the morning commute to highlight potential for minor roadway impacts due to snow (and re-freezing of any melting snow) that may necessitate slower travel. Rapid movement of the trough east and subtle shortwave ridging in its wake will foster rapid cessation of snow after the frontal passage and greater potential for cloud erosion through the afternoon. Any sunshine may warm interior rooms but will be of no effect to the ambient air temperature; strong cold advection behind the cold front favors temperature readings to fall through the rest of the day. Combined with breezy wind, teens to lower 20s wind chill values will be common in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Near-record low temperatures Thursday morning. - Low confidence in snow Friday. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Clearing will continue behind the cold front, with high pressure establishing overnight Thursday. For at least the early overnight period, the entire area is likely to see very effective radiative cooling with calm and mostly clear conditions with a surface snowpack. For the latter half of the overnight period, there will be some uncertainty to the efficiency of cooling for regions south of Pittsburgh, with some Euro ensembles showing clouds approaching, while most American ensembles stay clear (and cooler). This could be record breaking cold for many area sites (see climate section). Much of the temperature variability is in the upper single digits to low teens, with sheltered valleys likely the coolest locations. Cloud cover uncertainty is tied to a larger uncertainty in a low track for the morning Friday. Some solutions have the low recurving slightly along the coast, providing some snow chances, particularly southeast of Pittsburgh, while others have the zonal flow prevailing, shunting the low offshore to the south. On the high end, an advisory (3" to 6") might be possible for the WV high terrain, but on the low end, all areas could see nothing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below normal temperatures continue early next week. - More winter weather potential. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A weak reinforcement of troughing has increased in confidence Sunday into Monday morning, which may allow low chances of additional snow showers, though chances are low in any accumulations >1" (15% to 30%), should they occur at all (40% to 70% chance). The highest chances of any accumulations would be for the PA/WV ridges, and the lowest would be in eastern Ohio. Mid-to-late week temperature uncertainties would be more tied to amplitude uncertainty of the semi-persistant eastern trough. A stronger prevailing trough would allow for cooler conditions, with higher chances of low-QPF snowfall. A weaker trough would likely correlate to warmer conditions with higher QPF potential in mixed precipitation events. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR ceilings tonight with light snow returning after 09z - IFR cigs expected/vis possible with heavier snow showers - Models more pessimistic on clearing Thursday afternoon ------------------------------------------------------------------- The cold front itself is just now beginning to cross Lake Erie. Light snow has begun at FKL but with slower frontal movement, kicked back snow onset times at most ports. MVFR cigs areawide are expected to slowly degrade down to an IFR/MVFR mix near 1kft over the coming hours as light snow slowly begins to overspread the region. Any heavier snow showers can bring briefly reduced vis and cig, this has been included as TEMPOs for most ports save for MGW which may be far enough south to avoid snowfall. Snow is expected to trail off by mid morning as winds pick up behind the front. Most ports can see NWerly gusts between 15-20 knots. Models have grown slightly more pessimistic on a quick clearing of cigs this afternoon and probabilities for MVFR cigs remaining at 18z are largely north of 80% besides at ZZV. These probabilities slowly erode this evening but remain between 30-50% at many ports through 00z. FKL/DUJ are likely to hold onto MVFR cigs the longest. Outlook... VFR begins to become the rule not the exception by early Friday morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Restrictions are possible again Saturday and Sunday with a crossing cold front. && .CLIMATE... At least four of our climate sites have a chance to challenge record low temperatures for December 5 on Friday morning. Two other sites are less likely to approach their record lows. Current 12/5 Forecast Site Record Low low ---- ---------- ------------ Pitt Intl 12 (1976) 9 Morgantown 11 (1974) 11 DuBois 10 (1991) 6 Wheeling 12 (1944) 10 Zanesville 3 (1957) 9 New Philadelphia 2 (1966) 7 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CL NEAR TERM...Frazier SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Milcarek AVIATION...AK ####018004597#### FXUS66 KMFR 040534 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 934 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...Updated AVIATION Discussion for 06Z TAFs... && .AVIATION...04/06z TAFs...Mid to high level clouds are staying at VFR levels so far tonight. Guidance suggests that IFR to LIFR ceilings may develop in the Umpqua Valley, but fog is looking less likely. Chances for fog remain in the Rogue Valley, but should be short lived if it does manage to develop. A weak front will help to clear out any development and bring generally VFR conditions across the area. Late afternoon/early evening showers along the coast and into Douglas County as well as along the Cascades may bring periods of locally lower ceilings and visibilities to these areas. -TAD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 207 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025/ DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Overall, minimal weather impacts through early next week * By far and large, mostly dry conditions expected through Fri * Next widespread chance for precipitation is mainly Saturday - Could be as early as Friday and lingering into Sunday - Very high snow levels (6,000ft+) - See note at end of discussion on Crater Lake snow * Signs pointing towards active weather around Dec 9th-12th - Heavy rain (west of Cascades) and heavy snow (Cascades) * King Tides are this weekend, but not expecting impacts/hazards Further Details: A ridge of H5 high pressure continues over the Pacific allowing northerly to northwesterly flow aloft to dominate the region. The ridge will slowly flatten out by Friday which will allow for more of a westerly flow pattern through the weekend. Overall, deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with the general pattern this week. We do start to see some minor discrepancies tomorrow where some guidance brings in light QPF. However, this may end up being clouds without QPF, but recent trends have showed an increase in measurable precipitation. Regardless, the impacts look to be minimal in any solution as precipitation would be very light through tomorrow night. The much better and more widespread chances starts Friday/Saturday and continues through Sunday morning. The result will be rainfall for most areas as snow levels are 6K+ feet. For perspective, several ensemble members (both GFS and Euro) continue to show no snow accumulation for Crater Lake. In typical fashion, coastal areas will see the highest 48hr QPF amounts, but the Umpqua Basin (especially higher elevations around Douglas County) and the Cascades will also be on this list of higher QPF amounts. Crater Lake could end up with close to an inch of rainfall over 48 hours given the high snow levels. At this time, flooding anywhere is unlikely, and we are not seeing any notable river rises with this system. Looking ahead, cluster analysis for 500mb anomalies is still split on a potential trough in the area Dec 10th-12th (as early as the 9th). This could lead to a slight risk of both heavy rainfall and heavy snowfall, but given the split (trough vs ridge) there is a lot of uncertainty. Additionally, this is pretty far out in the future, and a lot could change, but we are watching this time period for potential active weather. We will continue to monitor and refine the details in the coming days. Snow pack is really low for this time of year. The average (1991-2020) snow depth for today (Dec 3rd) at Crater Lake is is normally 28.0", but we are sitting at zero. It will likely take a few systems to get back to normal, but this potential system next week would be a good start. MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, December 3, 2025...Advisory level north winds will maintain steep seas south of Cape Blanco through Thursday morning. Long period, swell dominated seas will persist north of Cape Blanco. Winds swing around to the west and southwest late Thursday into Friday, and the resulting wind seas will combine with ongoing swell to produce steep seas through Saturday. Gusty south winds and additional steep seas may develop Saturday night into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$ ####018004494#### FXUS63 KEAX 040534 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1134 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated sprinkles and snow flurries linger through the afternoon. Most will probably not see anything. Accumulations are not likely sans the Truman Lake region where a tenth or two-tenths is possible. - Coldest temperatures of the season are upon us with overnight lows in the teens and single digits. Temperatures are expected to be below 0F across far northern and northeast MO. - Several uncertainties remain with Saturday's system. There have been significant fluctuations in the track and snow amounts depending on the scenarios presented by various model guidance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A quite cold air mass continues to make its way through the region. Fortunately a push of warm air advection ahead of the front keeps the bitterly cold temperatures at bay until this evening and overnight. As the front moves across the region, some lift from a passing shortwave aloft as well as the front itself looks to generate some sporadic snow flurries around the region through the day. The outlook for flurries has become a bit more pessimistic as warm air advection with a little boost from pre-frontal solar heating has expanded the dew point depressions at low level. Still there remains enough saturation in the DGZ that sprinkles/flurries are possible. No accumulations are expected with the exception of the Lake of the Ozarks and the Truman Lake areas where moisture is a little more favorable. Even with that, accumulations look to be limited to around 0.1-0.2 inches. Temperatures continue to cool behind the front. After the sun sets, temperatures are expected to cascade downward. Lows range from the teens south of the MO River, to single digits between the MO River and US-36, and below zero across far northern and northeastern MO tantalizingly close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Some places may make a run at record cold minimum temperatures for 12/4. Persistent cold air advection through Thursday keeps maximum temperatures at their coldest of the season with highs ranging from 15 across far NE MO to 30 toward far east central KS. The broad surface high combined with a shift in mid and upper level wind turns flow back southerly resuming regularly scheduled early December programming. Highs quickly rebound into the upper 30s and low 40s to close out the week. Forecast guidance for the weekend remains variable. Depending on which model you consult, the track of the storm has shifted north or south of the area. Most ensemble members favor the northern track taking the core of the storm through central IA; however, this does keep chances for accumulating snowfall Saturday over much of the area along and north of I-70. However, these deviations have not added much certainty or confidence to the forecast. Similar to yesterday, the primary reason for this uncertainty is how the upper wave will manifest itself across the central CONUS. Unlike a more traditional closed cyclone off the Pacific or a deep digging trough from interior Canada. This storm looks to be the product of a more subtle perturbation in the flow. Across many model members, this perturbation is being represented as a layered wave with a northern and southern component of which the cores bypass the area north and south; hence the significant snowfall shift. This contrasts the more concentrated single wave representation models suggested yesterday. I anticipate continued changes in this wave structure thus continued fluctuations in where the core of the snow will fall. It would not be surprising for these fluctuations to be fairly stark in terms of location and amounts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR stratus cloud deck will start the overnight hours, but as high pressure moves in will gradually scatter out. Light winds shift slightly from the north to more northeasterly through the afternoon but generally under 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Krull ####018007085#### FXUS63 KARX 040535 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold temperatures are expected tonight and into Thursday morning with lows falling below zero areawide. Wind chills of 10 to 25 degrees below zero are expected Thursday morning. Highs will likely only reach into the single digits to lower teens for Thursday. - Additional snowfall chances Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Today-Thursday: Very Cold Temperatures In the wake of a surface cold front passing through the area this morning, temperatures will continue to gradually cool down from the mid teens to low 20s early this afternoon to below zero later this evening. To help cool down the temperatures more efficiently, skies will clear out later this afternoon and winds decrease this evening as the surface high sets up over central Iowa. When combining the mostly clear skies and minimal winds with the current snowpack on the ground, this will also aid in lowering temperatures quicker. When looking at NBM probabilities, even the 95th percentile has low temperatures for tonight below zero for most locations indicating how cold tonight will be. Our current low temperatures for tonight range from -5 to -15F. With winds being relatively light (less than 10 mph) there will be enough wind to impact the feels like temperature outside. Minimum apparent temperatures for tonight range from 10 to 25 degrees below zero. Compared to the previous couple of days, we have lowered temperatures to take into account the aforementioned conditions leading to more cooling taking place and these temperatures could be even colder than our forecasted lows if winds really diminish and we completely clear out. Depending on how cold we get, the record low temperatures for both Rochester and La Crosse could be broken. The record for La Crosse seems more attainable as our forecasted low is -7F and the record low is -6F set back in 1893. Taking a look at Rochester, their forecasted low is -12F with a record low of -15F set back in 1886. There will also be limited recovery Thursday afternoon with highs in the low to mid teens and wind chills still in the 5 to 10 below zero range so make sure to bundle up and wear multiple layers when heading outdoors Thursday. Friday-Early Next Week: Periodic Snow Chances, Below Normal Temperatures The upper level pattern for Friday shifts to a more zonal pattern allowing for more warm air advection to move into the area. This will help to increase highs on Friday into mid 20s. This zonal pattern gets interrupted by a shortwave trough that moves through Friday afternoon into Friday night. This wave increases snow chances between 30 and 50% for areas along and north of I-90, with 15 to 30% for areas south of I-90. Most ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS have measurable snow for our CWA, as can also be seen in the LREF's probability of at least 0.1" (measurable snowfall) where there is a 60 to 80% along and north of I-90. Heading into Saturday/Sunday northwest aloft returns allowing for various shortwaves to potentially impact our CWA. The first wave dips down into the Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday into Sunday, however there remains a large amount of uncertainty as to where this trough goes. Deterministic guidance have two very different solutions when looking at the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS pushes this wave into the Central Plains due to the trough to our north being stronger and more amplified whereas the ECMWF keeps the wave over central Iowa as the trough to our north is not as strong as the GFS makes it. These scenarios are also in the LREF cluster analysis which has 3 total scenarios. The first is the GFS scenario which has less than 10% of ensemble members support. The second has a 20% chance of occurring and that takes the wave directly over the Upper Midwest and gives our CWA a good chance (60 to 70%) of at least 1" of snow occurring. The last scenario makes up 70% of ensemble members and is what the deterministic ECMWF suggests where the wave dips down in to central Iowa. This scenario would mainly impact areas to the west of the Mississippi River where there would be a 20 to 45% chance of at least 1" of snow. While this system is not expecting to be that impactful, it is still something to watch as this could bring another chance of at least 1" of snow to parts of the forecast area. Turning our attention to early next week, another disturbance moves through the Upper Midwest Monday increasing snow chances once again. As this wave exits another one enters the frame on Tuesday into Wednesday. Now while this is still several days away, both deterministic and ensemble guidance have honed in on another system. There are plenty of details to sort out regarding this storm but it does look like another chance at measurable snowfall. Temperatures through the weekend remain below normal with Sunday being the coldest with highs in the teens, otherwise expect highs in the 20s into early next week, then potentially some low 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF period as surface high pressure will keep skies mostly clear throughout the morning and afternoon on Thursday. Winds will increase late in the afternoon and continue into the overnight with winds around 12-18 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts in unsheltered areas of southeast MN and northeast IA. Some LLWS will be possible late in the evening on Thursday as winds just off the deck increase to around 45-50 kts as shown in the recent RAP soundings. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Low temperatures will be 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal on Thursday morning. These temperatures will be cold enough that there may be some record lows tied or broken. Many of these records were set in 1893, 1976, 1985, and 1991. Here are some of the record lows for December 4. Austin MN -10 in 1991 Charles City IA -9 in 1991 Decorah, IA -8 in 1991 Elkader, IA -9 in 1976 Fayette, IA -12 in 1976 Friendship, WI -7 in 2002 Grand Meadow, MN -25 in 1940 La Crosse, WI -6 in 1893 Mather, WI -9 in 1940 Medford, WI -16 in 1985 Mondovi, WI -9 in 1976 New Hampton, IA -9 in 1991 Prairie du Chien, WI -12 in 1893 Preston, MN -19 in 1985 Rochester, MN -15 in 1886 Theilman, WI -22 in 1985 Trempealeau Dam -9 in 1985 Winona, MN -6 in 1893 and 1991 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Naylor CLIMATE...Boyne