####018009588#### FXUS61 KPHI 040535 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1235 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure, centered to our south, moves offshore overnight. An arctic front will move across our region Thursday. The center of arctic high pressure builds into our area later Thursday night and Friday morning before shifting offshore by later Friday. An area of low pressure tracks to our south and east later Friday into Saturday, followed by a cold front later Sunday. High pressure builds in later Monday into Tuesday, then low pressure and a cold front may arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... An expansive area of high pressure is over the Eastern US, which will result in a continuation of tranquil conditions overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear outside of some thin passing high clouds and perhaps some stratus over the higher elevations in the Poconos. Temperatures have already dropped into the 20s in most areas and will fall a few more degrees overnight. Across Philly metro temps will remain closer to 30 with the urban heat island effect. For Thursday, a cold front will pass through the region, ushering in an arctic airmass. While the frontal passage will mainly be dry for most, there may be just enough moisture, lift, and instability to result in a few snow showers along and north of I-80 during the day. While this should generally be not impactful, the snow squall parameter is not zero, so a few squalls reaching the far northern part of our area cannot be ruled out. Otherwise for most, the main impact will be increasing winds as the front passes and in its wake as strong cold-air advection ramps up. Winds increase with gusts around 25-35 MPH expected out of the northwest. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s Thursday, but it will certainly feel cooler than that with a brisk northwesterly wind. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Arctic air settles in for the end the week and to start the weekend. Following the passage of an arctic front, the center of arctic high pressure will gradually build into our region Thursday night. As this occurs, a gusty northwesterly wind will diminish through Thursday evening. Due to the strong cold air advection, temperatures will drop significantly Thursday night and bottom out in the teens (some single digits in the Poconos to far northwestern New Jersey) by daybreak Friday. There will be a wind chill factor as well, however this will be mostly during the evening as the winds are expected to mostly decouple during the night. Some record low temperatures could be challenged for December 5th, especially in the Lehigh Valley and Berks County. Record low temperatures are listed below in the climate section for reference. The center of arctic high pressure across our area to start Friday morning shifts offshore by later in the day. A shortwave trough however arrives later in the day Friday and especially Friday night. This feature does not appear to sharpen a lot as it arrives given the more zonal flow aloft ahead of it. The deterministic and ensemble guidance varies with the northward placement of the precipitation shield. A cold/dry air mass is forecast to be in place, and this may hinder the northward extent of the precipitation shield. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop and track to our south as a result of the incoming mid level energy and it looks to be a quick mover. Given the current synoptic setup, the highest probability of precipitation remains across Delmarva to southeastern New Jersey. There is the potential for light snow accumulations especially the farther south one goes across the area, with some potential for a wintry mix or a change to rain closer to some of the coastal areas. Some guidance is a bit stronger and northward with the precipitation shield, which offers more snow. If a ribbon of stronger forcing develops (frontogenesis or strengthening frontogenesis), then a more expansive precipitation shield would be plausible and perhaps a banding feature north/northwest of the surface low. This would tend to occur if the mid level wave sharpens some more. The details will be determined by the track and strength of the system which will then determine the precipitation types and snow amounts. As of now though, snow amounts are an inch or less. Rather cold Friday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 20s far north to upper 30s far south, however the wind looks to be on the light side and therefore not much of a factor. The system quickly departs Saturday with some decrease in the cloud cover. It should not be quite as cold Saturday, however still remaining below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to be across much of eastern Canada Sunday and Monday. This feature looks to extend south across much of the eastern U.S. especially as stronger shortwave energy travels along the southern parts of the trough into the Southeast U.S. The trough may weaken Tuesday into Wednesday, however this will depend on if a strong shortwave dives southeastward from the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front arrives later Sunday with high pressure sliding across our area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure and its cold front may then arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday. For Sunday and Monday...An upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada amplifies southward as shortwave energy rounds its base across the southern states. As this occurs, a cold front looks to cross our area later Sunday. The moisture with this looks to be rather limited and therefore much of the area should remain dry. However, this front will deliver another shot of cold air into our area for Monday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average, with it being much colder/below average on Monday. As the axis of high pressure moves across our area Monday night, temperatures are forecast to be very cold with lows in the teens (single digits across the far north). For Tuesday and Wednesday...Despite that the main upper-level trough may weaken or retreat more to our north Tuesday, a potentially strong shortwave trough diving southeastward from the Midwest should cross our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This feature may end up supporting a clipper-type system at the surface, which then quickly crosses our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The moisture is typically limited with these features, however if the mid level wave is stronger like some guidance suggests then forcing for ascent would be stronger. There is uncertainty with this given all the moving pieces within the parent upper-level trough, therefore did not deviate from the National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance. Cold/below average temperatures continue, however as of now a little moderating of the temperatures are forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of tonight (through 12Z)...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 kt or less. Thursday...VFR. Winds increasing with a frontal passage between 14z- 16z. West/northwest winds 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in timing of frontal passage and winds increasing. Outlook... Thursday night...VFR. West-northwest winds diminishing. Friday and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible along with some rain/snow (highest probability currently south and east of KPHL) later Friday into early Saturday. Sunday and Monday...Mostly VFR. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected through tonight. West winds around 10- 15 kt with seas 2 to 4 feet. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all marine zones beginning at 14z. West/northwest winds around 15-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt expected. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Outlook... Thursday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions in the evening, with winds and seas decreasing through the overnight. Friday through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CLIMATE... Very cold temperatures are forecast for early Friday morning which may challenge a few record lows. Record Low Temperatures for December 5th... SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 11/1926 AC Airport (ACY) 11/1966 AC Marina (55N) 15/1901 Philadelphia (PHL) 13/1886 Wilmington (ILG) 12/1926 Reading (RDG) 12/1926 Trenton (TTN) 10/1926 Mount Pocono (MPO) -2/1971 Georgetown (GED) 14/1966 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gorse NEAR TERM...Hoeflich SHORT TERM...Gorse/MJL LONG TERM...Gorse AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich CLIMATE... ####018007650#### FXUS64 KEPZ 040535 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1035 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Upper level system is currently bringing snow showers mainly to the Sacramento Mountains, with light sprinkles in a few lowland areas, mainly north of the I-10 corridor in New Mexico. - Snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains by morning will range from a dusting to 2 inches, with the higher amounts above 7500 feet. - Cooler temperatures are expected through the day Thursday, with cold temperatures Thursday and Friday night. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a shortwave trough extending from south-central Colorado into Arizona. You can also see plenty of moisture aloft well south of the border. Just a few days ago, models were trending towards a more amplified trough digging further south and tapping some of that moisture...but it was not meant to be. On the nighttime microphysics imagery, you can see a little northeast push from a backdoor cold front sneaking into the Sacramento Mountains. Though the steadier northeast winds are out over the Eastern Plains, some of that cooler and drier air has pushed into the eastern and northern portions of the Sacramento Mountains. This is making for somewhat disjointed snow levels, with snow levels around 6500 feet east and northeast of the main ridgeline, and closer to 7500-8000 feet along the west slopes. Webcams show it's snowing steadily in Ruidoso and Lake Mescalero, with a dusting on the US-70 road surface at Apache Summit (7600'). A light accumulation is also covering the ground at Lake Mescalero (6950'), and it has just started sticking to the roads at Cloudcroft (8675'). A webcam at Sky Country Estates (8870') looks to have roughly a half inch accumulation on the deck railing. This broken band of light snow will persist for a few more hours, then snow showers will become lighter and more sparse around dawn. Total snow accumulations by morning will be around 1-2 inches above 8000 feet, down to a dusting around 6000 feet. A dusting is also possible along Emory Pass in the Black Range, where precip is much lighter. Otherwise, it's back to benign weather tomorrow, though cooler temperatures will prevail. Highs in the lowlands will be in the middle to upper-50s (about 4-8 degrees below normal), and the lower to middle-30s above 8000 feet (8 to 12 degrees below normal). Lighter winds and clear skies will make for a cold night Thursday night into Friday morning, with another shot at reaching the freezing mark again here on the mesa at Santa Teresa. Much of the Mesilla and Hatch Valleys will dip into the middle-20s, with 10s in the usual cold spots around the Gila. It still looks like KELP, downtown, and the east side of El Paso will stay above freezing by 2-3 degrees, though colder temperatures may creep up into the more urbanized parts of the Lower Valley. Temperatures will rise to near normal for Friday, while overnight lows Friday night will only be a degree or two off the previous night. We'll see an overall warming trend, with highs reaching the middle 60s in the lowlands no later than Saturday. Dry and benign northwest flow looks to continue through the forecast period, with no strong winds or precip on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 A band of light precip will bring light snow over the Sacramento Mountains, and perhaps the odd sprinkle at TCS. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals overnight, with SCT-BKN mid-level clouds (5-7kft), though lower clouds will exist over the Sacramento Mountains, where a backdoor cold front is nudging in. Winds will trend towards light northerly Thursday with generally clearing skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A low chance of rain and mtn snow is forecast for tonight, mainly in the Sacs as a storm system tracks across northern NM. Light snow accumulations up to 1" are expected in the Sacs with slightly heavier snowfall (2-3") further north in Lincoln county. Winds increase from the W-SW this afternoon ahead of the trough, with 20-ft winds of about 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Min RHs (30-50%) will be well above critical levels, so elevated fire danger is not forecast today. Deeper mixing heights and transport winds are expected this afternoon, so ventilation will be very good, mostly. Light winds return tomorrow along with cooler temps behind the front, resulting in poor ventilation. No precip is expected after tomorrow morning through the weekend under northwest flow aloft. Typical afternoon breeziness is forecast for the weekend. Temperatures gradually rebound to above normal by early next week. Min RHs will be 25-45% Thu, dropping to 20-35% by Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 35 62 38 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 38 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 30 57 30 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 50 29 55 29 / 0 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 24 36 25 / 0 80 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 27 54 29 / 0 20 0 0 Silver City 49 25 51 27 / 0 30 0 0 Deming 55 27 61 30 / 0 20 0 0 Lordsburg 55 30 56 27 / 0 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 33 60 36 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 54 25 62 26 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 33 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 30 54 31 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 58 34 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 33 59 34 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 36 59 36 / 0 20 0 0 Jornada Range 53 23 57 25 / 0 20 0 0 Hatch 54 26 60 27 / 0 20 0 0 Columbus 56 31 62 34 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 52 30 56 30 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 44 27 50 29 / 0 70 0 0 Mescalero 42 25 47 26 / 10 70 10 0 Timberon 43 21 45 24 / 0 50 0 0 Winston 46 16 52 21 / 0 30 0 0 Hillsboro 49 29 56 29 / 0 30 0 0 Spaceport 51 27 55 26 / 0 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 13 52 18 / 0 30 0 0 Hurley 49 26 54 25 / 0 30 0 0 Cliff 52 23 57 20 / 10 20 0 0 Mule Creek 51 16 53 18 / 10 20 0 0 Faywood 49 26 54 27 / 0 30 0 0 Animas 56 31 59 30 / 0 20 0 0 Hachita 55 30 59 30 / 0 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 28 61 28 / 0 10 10 0 Cloverdale 56 33 54 32 / 0 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman ####018005772#### FXUS64 KHUN 040538 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1138 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Low chances for patchy freezing fog tonight. - Very low chances (20% or less) for a very short window where a wintry mix in extreme southwestern portions of northern Alabama could mix in with rainfall around sunrise Thursday morning. - Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday night, with medium to high chances late this afternoon into tonight before ending Friday morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A mixture of mid and high cloud cover is periodically moving across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this evening. Some lower cloud cover can be seen advancing east from Arkansas into western Mississippi at this hour too. Expect that to move into NW Alabama between 2 and 3 AM. 0Z soundings from both BMX and BNA are both very dry, especially below 850 mb. Rainfall is concentrated over the western Gulf coast area, where a surface low is moving off to the east northeast. This movement would keep the strong forcing pretty far south of northern AL. Though NBM ensemble is showing some 20 to 40 percent PoP that move into NW Alabama and towards Cullman county, the dryness of the soundings and placement of stronger forcing call into serious question whether any precipitation can fall towards and just after daybreak on Thursday. Left a token 20 percent chance of rain, possible mixed with a sleet pellet or two from Franklin county (AL) ESE into southern Lawrence and Cullman counties. However, this should not last long and by 15Z expect any precipitation to be rain. Models continue to show much stronger forcing moving east into the northwestern Alabama as a cold front pushes southeast and moves the surface low to the northeast a bit more. Expect that to occur mainly after 3 PM. There might be a better window for some brief sleet development around 3 PM (when the warm nose may be close to 1 to 3 degrees) and strong forcing moves into NW Alabama. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 However, confidence is lower given the strength of the warm nose by 6 PM (4-6 degrees) that the sleet will continue. The precipitation type would likely change to cold rain, given the strength of the forecast warm nose with temperatures below that only dropping to between 32 and 34 degrees at their lowest. In most guidance these temperatures only increase slowly into Thursday night. Thus, for now kept rain after 6 PM tonight. This rainfall could become moderate at times before exiting the area during the morning hours on Friday (maybe a bit sooner in NW AL). By Friday afternoon, expect dry conditions to be the rule. Not much cold air behind this initial front, as it basically stalls over southern Alabama and Georgia. So no real push to much colder air into the area. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep highs a bit cooler. Highs on Friday are expected to climb into the mid 40s. Saturday should be a bit warmer, with zonal flow continuing and some clearing in the afternoon. Highs should return to the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Some clearing Saturday night, but guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions returning around midnight and continuing through the overnight hours. Lows in the 35 to 40 degree range look reasonable. The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night. Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%) from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful) tidbit to keep an eye on. Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and 50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday forward as models struggle to resolve our next system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 18Z. Expect CIGS between 5000 and 10,000 feet to push into KMSL after 08Z and after 10Z at KHSV. A prob30 group was included for CIGS becoming MVFR with some -RA between 21Z and 23Z mainly. -SL may need to be added in this period, but left out for now. Expect predominant -RA to push into KMSL around 04/23Z and a bit later at KHSV at 05/00Z. At this time, not expecting a change over back to any wintry precipitation. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...KTW ####018007751#### FXUS62 KJAX 040540 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1240 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Early this Morning - Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas - Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA Fri & Sat. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide - Light Freezes and Frost Possible on Tues & Wed Nights Next Week - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early morning patchy frost over southeast Georgia will clear with the sunrise followed by increasing chances for showers in the afternoon and evening hours initially building over southeast Georgia and spreading southeast into portions of northeast Florida as high pressure moves further off to the east and a moist southwesterly flow builds over the forecast area ahead of a stalled frontal boundary over Georgia. Mild prevailing surface winds are expected will become more northerly in the afternoon and then diminish by the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures for today will rise into the 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia and will range between the 60s up into the mid 70s for northeast Florida with warmer temps occurring further to the south over north central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 40s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 50s over northeast Florida and in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Friday and Friday Night: Ongoing and prevailing south–southwest flow ahead of the approaching surface low will promote warm-air and moisture advection inland. Showers will become more widespread on Friday, and limited elevated instability may support a few embedded thunderstorms. Convection is expected to persist into Friday night as the low and associated cold front move into northern Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk across inland southeast Georgia due to the potential for repeated rounds of heavy downpours. Temperatures will rise to above-seasonable levels on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the low-80s. Saturday and Saturday Night: The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall over north-central Florida from Saturday into Saturday night. Increasing Gulf moisture will raise PWATs into the 1.6–1.8 inch range, which is above normal for this time of year. This moist environment, combined with the frontal boundary acting as a focus for ascent, will support numerous to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This system will bring beneficial rainfall to areas experiencing severe to extreme drought, with storm totals generally ranging from 1 to 4 inches. However, minor flooding may occur where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall develop over a short period. The axis of heaviest rain will likely set up across inland southeast Georgia, where locally higher amounts are possible. The WPC has expanded its Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall to include both southeast Georgia and northeast Florida in the Saturday outlook. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday and Sunday Night: The axis of deepest moisture will shift southward, settling just south of the Florida–Georgia line. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will persist through the day. The stalled front will gradually push into central Florida by late afternoon, while a surface low tracks along the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida and moves offshore into the adjacent Atlantic by evening. In the wake of the cold front, a few isolated rain showers may linger into Sunday evening, diminishing significantly and ending altogether late Sunday night. The 72 hour (3 day total) probability of exceeding 2 inches of total rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Live Oak FL to Baxley GA westward ranges from 50 to 90 percent. The 72 hour probability of exceeding 3 inches total rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Homerville to Denton, GA westward ranges from 33 to 67 percent. Monday through Wednesday: A drier and colder airmass will settle over the region as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will run below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid-60s and overnight lows ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. Guidance also indicates the passage of another, drier reinforcing front on Monday, which will maintain cool and dry conditions with strong model agreement. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR with a slow thickening of mid and high clouds for most of the 06Z TAF period,along with light North winds of 3-5 knots tonight and 6-9 knots after 18Z today. Have kept the brief MVFR fog in the TAF forecast for VQQ in the 08-12Z time frame this morning. There will be an increase of mid level clouds between 00z and 06z tonight with winds veering to a light easterly direction. && .MARINE... High pressure will build over the southeastern states today with low pressure organizing along the northern Gulf coast tonight, with a warm front lifting northward across our local waters on Friday accompanied by an increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure will move northeastward across southeastern Georgia on Friday evening, with this storm system's cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Friday NE FL Moderate through Friday && .FIRE WEATHER... Light surface northwest winds will result in poor dispersion today. Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening across southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee Valley. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly light showers are anticipated today and tonight along and north of the I-10 corridor, with coverage and intensity increasing late Friday into Saturday as showers and embedded thunderstorms become more widespread. South–southwesterly flow strengthens on Friday, supporting fair dispersions. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy frost is possible this morning across interior portions of southeast Georgia. Heavy rain will be possible Friday into the weekend across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 45 60 48 57 / 70 90 70 80 SSI 52 70 53 63 / 50 60 60 60 JAX 51 78 55 68 / 30 40 40 50 SGJ 57 80 60 72 / 10 10 30 40 GNV 53 79 61 73 / 10 30 40 50 OCF 56 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018007112#### FXUS63 KSGF 040540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (15-30%) for a narrow band of light wintry mix becoming light snow into this evening across central Missouri. Low confidence in any light snow accumulations, generally limited to a dusting or less. - Low chances (10-20%) for freezing drizzle south of Interstate 44 corridor this evening into tonight, with the best chances across south central Missouri. Low confidence in a light glaze of ice and a few slick spots into Thursday morning. - Much colder on Thursday with highs in the 30s, before a return to 40s through the weekend. Furthermore, confidence is increasing in a warming trend into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Through Tonight: A shortwave trough builds off the leeside of the Rockies today, with a cold front surging south out of the Plains. Strong dynamics overlay the region, with a 120-140 knot jet streak. Moisture lifting north will clash with the front sliding south. In this area of frontogenesis, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out some precipitation. This introduces low PoPs (15-30%) across the area through this evening and tonight. Initial temperature profiles would support rain, before a changeover to a wintry mix. However, the other side of picture would suggest little to no coverage of precipitation through tonight due a lack of sufficient moisture. The most likely scenario based on the latest trends suggests a narrow band of light wintry mix sliding through portions of the area. This can be gleaned from the latest radar analysis, depicting light reflectivity echos developing across central MO. However, much of this has struggled to make it to ground so far this afternoon, as low- level moisture remains marginal. As we progress through the late afternoon into the evening, a slight uptick in moisture is progged to occur, supporting PoPs up to 30% across central and south central MO. A deeper look would suggest light rain develops in a narrow band associated with 700mb frontogenesis. As colder air settles into the area and sunset occurs, a changeover to light rain to wintry mix to all light snow would occur. Confidence remains low on the extent of coverage and any potential accumulations. The higher end of guidance suggest light snowfall amounts across central MO towards a 0.5 inch, with most of the guidance around a dusting or less. As the front sinks further south, the attention turns towards light wintry mix becoming light drizzle/freezing drizzle. This is generally in the area east of Highway 65 and south of Highway 60, where low-level moisture is present in the vicinity of no cloud ice. Thus, supporting the potential development of areas of drizzle to freezing drizzle. The residual time of any freezing drizzle would be short-lived, with it falling as a very fine drizzle in terms of microphysics. Additionally, as stratus builds down, some spotty areas of freezing fog may develop again into south central MO. Likewise, confidence remains low in this potential as well. However, any light accumulations of snow or a glaze of ice could support some slick spots, especially on elevated or untreated roadways. With all this in mind, the extent of coverage of wintry precipitation is expected to remain low, with most areas likely remaining dry through tonight. On the contrary, moisture and forcing overlap may not be enough to overcome dry air in the low-levels. In this scenario, lower PoPs would be warranted along a dry frontal passage. Nonetheless, the frontal passage supports colder air building into the area overnight, with lows in the teens (north) and lower 20s (south). Northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph gives way to wind chills in the single digits to teens for Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Thursday: Guidance suggests the stratus deck behind the front gradually dissipates through Thursday for portions of the area, with colder temperatures in the forecast. Highs Thursday reach into the upper 20s (north) to middle 30s (south). As we progress through the day, a secondary shortwave ejects eastward into the region. The latest ensembles suppress the jet streak further south of the area, which would suggest a shift of precipitation axis further south. There has been a lack of run to run, and model to model consistency with this wave. Based on the latest, the general consensus is low PoPs (10-20%) skirting the MO/AR border. Timing would generally be late afternoon through the night if anything is able to materialize. However, confidence remains low once again. Another cold night across the area with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s. Friday-Sunday: As we get into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quasi-zonal to northwesterly. This will support a bit "warmer" temperatures, though still 5+ degrees below normal for early December. Highs this weekend are progged to reach into the 40s to near 50 on Friday and Saturday, before yet another frontal passage cools us off into Sunday. Ensembles vary on associated precipitation chances with the frontal passage. For now, keeping PoPs low around 15-25%. Next Week: Ensembles are slowly coming into better agreement on mid-level riding building east towards the region into next week. If confidence continues to increase in this signal, next week would favor a return of temperatures near to above normal into the 50s. Additionally, this pattern would support a drier stretch of weather. This aligns with the latest CPC 6 to 10 day Outlook, with remaining uncertainty on the extent east of the ridging. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A band of MVFR cigs is dropping south behind a fropa that has brought 5-10 kt northerly winds to the TAF sites. Current observations put the cloud deck between 1200-1800 ft, but some observation sites further east bring the deck down to 900 ft. Guidance suggests the IFR cigs should stay east of the area, though added a TEMPO group for SGF and BBG to account for the possibility of some brief drops to IFR. These clouds should begin decreasing in coverage and exiting the area between 10-15Z. There is a 10-15% chance that the stratus clouds hold on after that timeframe for a few hours, but at this point, coverage should be SCT, producing minimal impact to the sites. After 00Z, winds will begin shifting clockwise to become southerly at 3-8 kts by the end of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Price