####018007377#### FXUS61 KBTV 042325 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 725 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will give way to widespread rainfall on Sunday along with breezy conditions. High pressure will bring dry and mostly sunny weather to start the new work week. The next chance for widespread rainfall and potential thunderstorms arrive middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 722 PM EDT Saturday...Its a beautiful evening acrs our fa with partly cloudy skies and comfortable temps in the 60s to near 70F. Hope you enjoyed todays weather, because changes are on the way for Sunday. Have increased pops to 100% for Sunday as a widespread wetting rainfall is anticipated with qpf ranging btwn 0.25 and 0.75. A cool, raw and wet day is anticipated with localized breezy south/southeast winds likely from time to time. Did make some minor tweaks to cloud grids this evening, temps, and winds, but overall fcst in good shape. Previous discussion follows: It has turned out to be a fairly pleasant early May day across North Country with upper ridging overhead mitigating the low- level maritime flow from coastal New England. KCXX radar shows some reflectivity returns across our southwestern and southern zones but much of these are just virga with plenty of dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The partial sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with even some isolated 73-74 degree readings despite plenty of cloud cover. Overnight tonight, the omega block weakens and moves east, allowing a piece of weak shortwave energy to come up the Ohio River valley. There are some hints of elevated instability, but while a handful of rumbles cannot be ruled out, it should be isolated enough to preclude mention of thunder with this forecast package. Heading into Sunday, PWATs rise to around 1.5 standard deviations above normal as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origins overspreads the region. Upper level pattern shows a stout omega block shifting east of our area into Maine, increasing shower chances and coverage on Sunday. However, organized convection is not expected as the main jet energy associated with the shortwave trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes is diverted into Quebec. As a result, the main trough axis does not approach North Country until sometime middle of next week. Indeed, forecast soundings show a lack of surface-based instability, so scattered to numerous showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, the coverage is again too isolated to mention in the forecast. While widespread wetting rainfall is expected, rainfall amounts are quite manageable in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range with locally higher amounts in the favored upslope regions of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage. Sunday will be about 10-12F cooler than Saturday, with highs only in the 50s with low 60s possible if there are breaks in the rain or clouds. In addition, a 40-50 kt 925mb southerly low level jet overspreads the region during the day on Sunday. NAEFS situational awareness ensemble table shows the v vector wind rising up to 2.5 standard deviations above normal, so it will be a rather breezy if not blustery day. A mitigating factor is that the waters of Lake Champlain is still quite cold with water temperatures still in the low to mid 40s, which is almost isothermal to the forecast 925mb temperatures in the +5 to +8C range. That could reduce the mixing potential in the boundary layer, in addition to the stabilizing effect of any rainfall. So have mostly kept wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range across the Champlain Valley despite the southerly wind component being anomalously strong. Overall, no overall hazardous weather to speak of but Sunday does look to be a less than ideal day for outdoor activities. Heading into Sunday night, showers taper off and the boundary layer looks well mixed enough to preclude widespread fog development. Temperatures stay quite mild in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...A few showers could linger on Monday from a weak surface trough (QPF up to 0.03"), but precipitation chances decrease throughout the day as drier air moves in. With this dry air, clouds will be on the decrease as well on Monday, allowing for mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Resulting highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, a few degrees above average. Monday night, clouds will mostly clear out and winds will be light/variable as high pressure noses into the region from Hudson Bay. This will cause lows to drop into the 40s for most. It's possible for some patchy fog to develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning with the favorable light winds and clearing skies. This will largely depend on how much the skies do clear as some models hold onto some clouds throughout the night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging and surface high pressure will keep Tuesday dry and mostly sunny. There could be some high clouds arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening due to a trough hovering to our northeast as well as another approaching system. Tuesday is likely to be our warmest day of the long term period (through Saturday) with highs in the upper 60s through mid 70s, several degrees above average. Precipitation chances will return by Wednesday as one of a few waves follow the zonal flow aloft through the forecast area. Each day through the end of the week could have some showers. Highs will take a hit from these, mostly peaking in the 60s, and lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s for the remainder of the week. Frontogenetical forcing and instability look most favorable Wednesday for some thunderstorm chances, but instability and forcing are not impressive enough for severe weather concerns at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Expect VFR conditions to persist for all terminals through 12z Sunday. Winds are generally under 10 kt out of the south or southeast, except for northeast at KMSS. Channeled or terrain driven flow can result in 15 kt winds at KPBG, KBTV and KRUT. After 12z Sunday, increasing shower coverage will lead to ceilings lowering to MVFR for most terminals. Additionally, LLWS increase to 45 kt at 2000 ft for most terminals after 12z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Chai NEAR TERM...Chai SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Chai/Taber ####018008461#### FXUS61 KBOX 042326 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 726 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy and cool weather is on tap through Sunday with a period of widespread showers arriving from the west...mainly later Sunday into Sunday night. Mild and dry to start the work week before cooler and unsettled conditions Wednesday through next weekend && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 730 PM Update... Widely variable conditions across southern New England at this hour with temps in the mid 40s along the eastern MA coastline, thanks to onshore flow, and in the mid 60s in parts of CT that saw sunshine for the better part of the day. Cloud cover is variable as well, with several layers of clouds ranging from IFR to VFR, with the lowest clouds colocated with the coolest temperatures. Low clouds will continue to spread inland this evening with some possible fog development along the south coast, Cape, and high terrain of central and western MA. 330 PM Update... * Clouds continue to overspread the region off the ocean tonight * Overnight low temps mainly in the 40s The upper level ridge axis will be shifting east of the region. This coupled with high pressure in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will result onshore flow. As the boundary layer cools...expect low clouds to continue to develop and expand westward tonight. Dry weather will prevail tonight...but we may see a few spot showers develop near daybreak west of the CT River Valley. Overnight low temps will bottom out mainly in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Points... * Cloudy/cool Sun with showers arriving across the interior * A period of widespread showers Sun night across the entire region Details... Sunday and Sunday night... High pressure will shift east of the Canadian Maritimes as shortwave energy approaches from the west on Sunday. Onshore flow low level flow will result in cloudy skies persisting and cool temperatures too. Highs will only be in the 50s even across the distant interior. While a few warm advection spot showers are possible across the interior during the morning...the stronger forcing/deeper moisture does not arrive until the afternoon. So thinking the main threat for showers will be be Sunday afternoon across interior MA & CT...but should wait until late Sunday afternoon/evening across the coastal plain. Enough forcing exists for a period of widespread showers Sunday night. Modest forcing and Pwats 1-2 standard deviations above normal could result in a brief downpour or two. While we can not rule out a rumble or two of thunder with some marginal elevated instability...thinking it was not worth inserting into the forecast at this point. Low temperatures Sunday night will mainly be in the middle to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... * Generally dry with above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday * Persistent period of cool temps and heightened rain chances Wednesday through early next week. Tale of two patterns for the upcoming work week with strong upper level ridging in place through Tuesday before a trough develops for the second half of the week. Some residual showers may linger into Monday morning, primarily across far southeastern MA and the Cape. Weak frontal passage may initiate some shower activity come Monday evening but with drying flow aloft, questions remain on the geographic spread of this second round of showers. All in all, Monday looks to shape up as a primarily dry day, with above normal temperatures as boundary layer temperatures warm to around 15C. As noted by the previous forecaster, ensemble probabilities of 70F+ temps remain high, between 80-100%, across the interior. Tuesday continues to look like the pick of the week as temperatures soar well into the 70s. Downsloping northwest flow that develops after the lunch hour and abundant sunshine should allow for a few localities in the CT River Valley to make a run at 80F. While ensemble probabilities remain low regarding temps hitting the 80F mark, conditions appear to be a recipe for an overachieving type day. For both Monday and Tuesday, weak pressure gradient will allow for seabreeze development, so while it may sound like a broken record, temps along the coastline will be significantly cooler. Ridge breaks down as trough develops over the eastern CONUS Wednesday- Friday. CMC, GEFS, and ECMWF remain at odds regarding how potent the trough will be, but a series of shortwaves and persistent low pressure located over the Great Lakes and a stalled frontal boundary will bring rounds of showers to southern New England Wednesday through the weekend. Ensemble probs aren't particularly remarkable when it comes to QPF, with just 20-50% probs of 0.5" QPF over any 24 hour period, but onshore flow will make for a prolonged period of stratus and shower chances with temperatures locked in the upper 50s and low 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight...High Confidence in trends, but more uncertainty in regards to specific timing. MVFR cigs along the coast, with some some SCT IFR cigs, will gradually thicken and creep inward this evening...eventually covering the entire region. We also expect some IFR conditions to develop overnight with even localized LIFR cigs/vsbys in the high terrain. Light E winds. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. IFR/MVFR ceilings will trend to mainly MVFR thresholds with some diurnal heating despite the cloudy skies. Some showers will work into mainly interior MA & CT during the afternoon hours, but will not reach the coastal plain until late Sunday afternoon/evening. SE winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday night...Moderate Confidence. Conditions should lower to mainly IFR with localized LIFR cigs/vsbys given the cooling boundary layer Sunday night. A round of widespread showers will overspread the region from west to east Sunday night too. SE winds shift to more of a S direction at 5 to 10 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends but more uncertainty in regards to specific timing. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends but more uncertainty in regards to specific timing. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday night...High Confidence. High pressure in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes tonight will shift east of there on Sunday. This as a shortwave energy approaches from the west late Sunday and Sunday night. That being said...the pressure gradient remains rather weak so winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds through Sunday night. E winds 5 to 15 knots tonight shift to the SE Sunday and then more to the S on Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS NEAR TERM...Frank/KS SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...Frank/KS MARINE...Frank/KS ####018007098#### FXUS64 KEPZ 042326 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 526 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 We will continue to be warm and breezy to low-end windy each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A s/w trough is moving through Western NM this afternoon. For our CWA it's pushing some high clouds through portions of the area as well as fostering some breezy afternoon winds. A boundary moved into portions of the area this morning bringing with it an increase in moisture, but it has since retreated. Only the central and eastern portions of the Sacramento Mountains remain within this boundary as denoted by cumulus clouds. We have seen a few showers develop over Northeast Otero Co, but with little consequence. A very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm will persist through evening there. The aforementioned boundary will make another push through the CWA overnight and into the morning, reaching to roughly the Rio Grande. It will quickly retreat back to the east leaving us dry and breezy to windy once gain by tomorrow afternoon. The breeziest winds will be along and west of the Rio Grande. No wind headlines are planned, but we do have a red flag in place for our New Mexico fire zones. The weather changes little Sunday through Thursday albeit with some variations in day-to-day wind speeds. This is because we will remain at the base of a long-wave trough with short-waves passing to our north, which will keep persistent lee troughing in place to our east. Near critical to critical with occasional extreme fire danger will be the main impact. Winds nudge down a little by Thursday, and by Friday, guidance suggests moisture will try and nudge in from the east. We shall see if that holds as models have persistently forecast a moist intrusion in the 6 to 9 timeframe only for it to never really materialize. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VMC through forecast period under strengthening southwest flow aloft. Skies mainly SKC-FEW250. SSE 120-180 surface winds overnight east of the Rio Grande where a moisture boundary exists, remaining SW 220-260 AOB 08 knots across southwest New Mexico. Winds increasing again Sunday afternoon, especially across western New Mexico. 210-240 at 10 to 20 knots with the gusts up to 30 knots possible at KTCS mid afternoon. Low confidence in blowing dust impacts, but worth monitoring midday tomorrow for any visibility reductions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Daily NEAR CRITICAL to CRITICAL fire concerns expected through Wednesday. Beginning with tonight and into Sunday, an easterly push is forecast to move through at least the eastern half of the CWFA or roughly the Rio Grande. How ever far west this air mass can pass will bring good overnight recoveries with many locations above 50 percent east of this boundary. Regardless, this air mass will retreat east during the afternoon hours allowing min RH values to drop well into the single digits. Winds will be breezy to windy again, topping out 15 to 25 MPH with the strongest winds along and west of the Rio Grande. A Red Flag Warning is in place for all New Mexico zones though conditions are a bit more marginal for Zones 112 and 113, largely due to lower wind speeds. Vent rates will be excellent. For Monday onward, winds each afternoon through Wednesday will top out around 20 MPH with min RH values falling into the single digits. Thus, we will continue to see critical fire conditions for much of the area. The geography of strongest winds will shift some for Monday leaving the Gila with more marginal Red Flag Conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue with critical conditions as winds top out near or over 20 MPH. There is some uncertainty on which day will feature the strongest winds between Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest data show Tuesday as a bit windier. Either way, expect more red flag warnings and fire weather watches to cover the Tuesday and Wednesday period with subsequent updates. Winds are presently forecast to decrease sufficiently for Thursday and Friday to alleviate critical weather concerns. Additionally, moisture may try and push in for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 63 42 58 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 86 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 89 52 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 92 54 89 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 52 81 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 54 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 86 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 88 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 84 53 81 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 75 48 71 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 43 74 46 71 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 40 73 43 69 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 44 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 83 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 81 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 84 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 79 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ110>113. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt ####018005506#### FXUS64 KSJT 042327 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...Significant severe weather expected again this afternoon and evening... Not much change to forecast reasoning the next 24 hours. Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving slowly south across far southern portions of the Big Country and extends west to near Midland and west to the New Mexico border. A dryline extended south from the front across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed just north of the boundary early this afternoon. One cell was located in Scurry county and another in Nolan county. Both of these storms will have the potential to produce large hail despite being on the north side of the front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front later this afternoon and then south of the front and east of the dryline during peak heating. Any storms north of the front will pose a large hail and possibly a wind threat. The airmass ahead of the front and east of the dryline will become very unstable by mid/late afternoon (MLCAPE 2500-3500), with deep layer shear 45-60 kts by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 19 and 20Z, per latest CAM's. Any storms that develop within the warm sector will become severe quickly, with large to very large hail and some tornadoes possible. A southeasterly low level jet will develop this evening, increasing the tornado potential as storms move east into richer moisture. The greatest tornado potential is expected generally south and west of a San Angelo to Sonora line, where a strong tornado is possible. Isolated tornadoes will be possible farther south and east across portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country counties later this evening/overnight. Storms are expected to eventually form into an MCS and move east across the area overnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall will be possible through tonight, with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain expected, with some locales seeing in excess of 3 inches. Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Due to the heavy rain potential and given recent heavy rainfall, a Flood Watch has been issued for most of the area, except far western counties through tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the area by mid to late morning, with mainly dry conditions through afternoon. However, may see some isolated development over far southeast counties tomorrow afternoon, so will keep low POPs intact for now. Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 There will be a few days in the long term which we will be monitoring for severe weather potential. Part of the Big Country is in a marginal risk, with a small part of Throckmorton County in a slight risk for Monday. Right now, it looks like the higher severe threat will be to our northeast, but with the moist air mass we'll have in place, the high instability, and the decent shear, we can't rule out severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also has the potential for severe weather, mainly in our eastern counties, once again due to very high instability. Right now, the chances for rain and storms look low for our area and better to our east for Wednesday, but this is something we'll be watching. There will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, as an 850 mb thermal ridge starts to shift over our area and southwest/west winds bring downsloping, warm air. A cold front is expected to bring below- normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) for the Big Country on Thursday and all of the area for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR to MVFR ceilings will persist across the area through tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms currently tracking through parts of the Heartland and Big Country, and approaching the western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau over then next hour or two. These showers/storms will begin to organize later this evening into a complex/line of storms as it moves east/southeast overnight. Expect MVFR/possible IFR ceilings to overspread the area overnight into Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 77 65 87 / 90 20 10 10 San Angelo 62 80 65 90 / 90 40 10 10 Junction 65 82 68 87 / 90 60 10 10 Brownwood 62 77 65 84 / 90 40 10 20 Sweetwater 60 76 65 89 / 100 10 10 10 Ozona 62 78 66 87 / 90 40 10 10 Brady 62 77 67 83 / 90 50 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard- Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...TP ####018009080#### FXUS63 KSGF 042327 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) through this evening, most areas remain dry. - Widespread rainfall will occur on Sunday with a slight risk for excessive rainfall (2/4) and localized flooding. No severe weather expected on Sunday. - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC highlights a Slight Risk (2/5) for this area. Primary hazards are damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Unsettled weather will persist through mid-week. Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall during this period between 1 to 3 inches may support a localized flooding threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Through Tonight: Broad southwest flow over the central CONUS continues to support unsettled weather. Recent satellite imagery and observations depict the approach of a frontal boundary into the area this afternoon. Ahead of the frontal boundary, coverage has remained minimal across the area. The strongest forcing has remained south of the area, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms suppressed across northern Arkansas. Expect the frontal boundary and associated shortwave to translate through the region as we progress through this afternoon and evening. Recent hi-res guidance suggests a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across portions of southern Missouri, or along and south of Interstate 44. Overall, coverage is not expected to be widespread. An analysis of the environment suggests some instability (1000-1500 J/kg) ahead of the frontal passage, with rather marginal deep layer shear around 20 to 25 knots. Quality low-level moisture remains present, with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. However, mid and high level moisture content remains unimpressive at less than 50% through the column. Given the setup, there is a low chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm through this evening. Primary hazards include quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Otherwise, a rather dry and pleasant evening for most of the area. By tonight, the frontal passage slides southeast through the area with slightly cooler temperatures. Lows vary from lower 50s (north) to upper 50s (south). Sunday: As quick as one shortwave exits, additional energy builds out of the Southern Plains overnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop late tonight into early Sunday morning across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri ahead of a building MCS across Oklahoma. As forcing increases through morning into the afternoon, expect coverage to increase with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms (60-80% PoPs). While the forcing appears more favorable for widespread coverage, instability and shear are weak. No severe thunderstorms are expected at this time through Sunday. Meanwhile, the attention turns towards localized heavy rainfall and potential flooding. PWAT values are forecast to be around a 1.25 to 1.50 inches across far southeast Kansas into southern Missouri. This will support efficient rainfall rates in this area. HREF Probability-Matched Mean (PMM) hints at localized corridors of heavier rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches. This will be of particular concern where thunderstorms repeat over the same areas. Additionally, the ground remains rather saturated from previous rainfalls (see Hydrology section). These factors may support a localized flash flood threat through Sunday afternoon/evening, though confidence is not high enough to issue a Flood Watch at this time. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next 12 hours. A bit cooler on Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain exits the area from west to east Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Monday-Wednesday: A strong negatively tilted upper level trough moves across the Central Plains into early next week. This feature may be slow to progress, bringing several days of potential unsettled weather. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall. Daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For Monday, guidance suggests plenty of dry time through late morning and afternoon, outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm (10-30%). As the upper level trough digs a bit further south into the region, an associated cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. While there remains some discrepancies among some ensemble members on exact timing, the general consensus is that showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across the west into Monday night. Recent trends continue to highlight the most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms sets up along and west of Interstate 49 corridor. In this area, forecast soundings depict instability around 2000-3000 J/kg in the vicinity of deep layer shear around 35 to 40 knots. Further east, the instability and shear profiles become less impressive. SPC highlights an Enhanced Severe Weather Outlook (3/5) just to the west of the area across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, the Slight risk (2/5) extends eastward to the Highway 65 corridor in our area. It should be noted, there is a hatched area (10% or greater probability of significant severe weather) that includes our two western rows of counties. This would include the Fort Scott down to Pittsburg, KS area over to the Nevada down to Anderson areas. All severe hazards remain plausible with this setup, though damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. As activity shifts further east through Monday night into early Tuesday morning, expect intensity to decrease as the environment becomes less favorable. By Tuesday morning, overnight activity will be ongoing. A secondary low pressure system and associated warm front lift north back through the area on Tuesday. There is remaining uncertainty on the potential for destabilization into Tuesday afternoon/evening across the eastern portions of the area, though the environment would support the threat for additional strong to severe thunderstorms. Tuesday's risk remains rather conditional at this time, and will need to be evaluated further in future forecast updates. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances persist into Wednesday, though the remains uncertainty on the exact timing and location of mesoscale features. The potential for localized heavy rainfall will need to be monitored closely through mid-week. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected with 1 to 3 inches forecast across the area, though localized flooding may occur. Thursday-Friday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to diverge a bit. Nonetheless, current guidances suggests a cold front slides through the area with additional low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) along the passage. Highs cool off into the upper 60s to lower 70s into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A few showers and storms will remain possible across portions of south central Missouri early this evening. This activity will continue to slowly move east and dissipate this evening. A surface boundary is moving through the region and will result in northerly winds through the TAF period. An upper level trough will move through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and some embedded thunderstorms to the area at times from the morning hours into the afternoon hours. Ceiling and visibilities will lower with the showers and storms with IFR conditions possible Sunday morning and afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Wise HYDROLOGY...Hatch