####018013171#### FXUS65 KABQ 180537 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1137 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 In conjunction with NWS PUB and AMA, brought the backdoor cold front into the eastern plains during the evening hours rather than late night and early morning hours. Wind gusts around 40 mph are likely tonight around Clayton, where low clouds could obscure the sky by as early as midnight then linger into early Thursday morning. The question is, how far south and west will the low clouds go? It's tough to say, but we do know models are notorious for bringing cool season backdoor cold fronts in too slowly and not progressing them into NM far enough. There is a fair chance that the low clouds will reach Tucumcari and possibly Las Vegas by sunrise, but this update kept them to the north and east of these locations. Also, lowered overnight low temperatures a few degrees across northeast and east central areas due to the faster arrival of the front. Additional forecast updates will be possible as the front begins moving into the state and models get a better handle on it. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 A back-door cold front, initially arriving tomorrow, will interrupt our warm, breezy springtime pattern, especially for areas along and east of the central mountain chain, through Saturday. Cooler temperatures, patchy late night/early morning fog, and light rain are likely behind the front. A moderate east canyon wind is likely Friday night into early Saturday as the front receives a reinforcing push. An upper-level disturbance interacting with the moisture along the front may allow for a few thunderstorms in the central part of New Mexico on Saturday as well. Drier and warming conditions return for the early part of next week, though another back-door front looks to edge into the northeast portion of the state next Monday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Mostly clear skies tonight with above average temperatures prevailing. A stout upper low touring the US/CAN border will kick a backdoor front down the Great Plains today, with the frontal boundary entering into northeastern NM tonight around 12Z. Gusty northerly winds will accompany this front as it surges southwestward across the eastern plains throughout the day on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will be felt in the front's wake, bringing daytime highs across the eastern plains down 10F to 20F compared to today's readings. Challenge lies in how far the front will progress, but did blend temps to the cooler side of guidance. Elsewhere, a few degrees of warming can be expected amongst sunny to partly cloudy skies. The front will continue surging westward, flirting with the east slopes of the central mts and the chain's gaps Thursday night. A gentle turn to east is likely very late in the night into early Friday morning. Lows across the RGV and westward will be generally unaffected by this frontal spillage. Minimum temps across the central mts and eastward will see a few degrees of cooling to overnight lows compared to Wednesday night's readings. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The aforementioned back-door cold front temporarily washes out/retreats north and east as S/SW winds re-establish across much of the state by around mid-day on Friday. This should yield another warm spring day, with temperatures topping out 8-12 deg F above normal along west of the central mountain chain, with the far eastern Plains remaining 5-8 degrees below normal. For Friday evening and into the overnight, the back-door front is given a second, stronger push via high pressure building southward in the southern Plains. All indications are that the easterly push will at least reach the central mountains and push through the gaps, with the NAM in particular taking the boundary further west, toward the Continental Divide, on Saturday. Higher confidence impacts are for at least patchy fog and rain across the eastern plains, due to moist upslope flow, with the highest amounts along the Texas border where a few tenths of an inch may accumulate. Also relatively high confidence on at least moderate east canyon winds for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas. Went above NBM guidance and blended in MOS in these areas, with current forecast indicating easterly winds of 25mph with gusts to around 35mph. Without a well-defined low center in SE Arizona, a stronger east wind is not expected at this time, but will have to watch. More medium confidence on thunderstorm development roughly along the Rio Grande Valley during the day on Saturday. Guidance points to ribbon of MUCAPE values reaching 500-1000 J/kg along and just behind the frontal boundary...though this could end up being west of the Albuquerque metro. Low-level moisture from the east wind, combined with a modest upper-level short-wave trough should be enough to kick off a few thunderstorms where instability permits. Deep-layer shear (easterlies below westerlies) could reach 40-50 knots, but lack of mid-level moisture might be the limiting factor, at least for coverage. Upshot is that mentionable PoP's were pulled westward a bit from NBM guidance into the RGV for Saturday afternoon. Moisture should mostly get scoured out on Sunday, on deeper WNW flow aloft. A few showers may hang on in the northern mountains, however. A warming trend also commences, with 80-degree readings returning to the mid/lower RGV and temps recovering as much as 15-20 degrees from Saturday's highs in the eastern Plains. Rather warm temperatures continue through next Wednesday, as quasi- zonal or SW flow aloft continues. One exception in NE New Mexico where another back-door cold front slips in Monday night. Nil precipitation is expected after Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Fast zonal flow over NM will continue to generate turbulence across the airspace the next 24 hrs. At the surface, a backdoor cold front surging south into eastern NM overnight will bring a period of northerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt from KRTN to KCAO and KTCC before sunrise. These winds will become easterly thru Thursday afternoon and remain gusty across the plains. A small area of MVFR to lcl IFR cigs may develop over far northeast NM early this morning in the wake of the front. Central and western NM will continue to see breezy southwest winds thru Thursday with thicker cirrus invading from the west. The surface boundary draped over eastern NM will then make a push to the west Thursday evening with potential for gap winds developing in the Rio Grande Valley by late evening. A larger area of MVFR low cigs is also expected to develop across the plains aft 06Z Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 A backdoor front surging down eastern New Mexico tonight into tomorrow will bring much needed improvement to moisture. The northeast and east central plains will see min RH settle in the 20 to 30 percent range, while zones to west remain critically dry in the low double digit to single digit values. Breezy conditions across northern New Mexico will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for the Upper Rio Grande Valley Thursday afternoon. Improved moisture will surge south and westward, bringing slightly greater coverage to the improved min RH on Friday. Unfortunately, highland zones and westward will still remain critically dry, with widespread single digit RH prevailing. Winds will work to limit critical fire weather conditions but elevated to near critical conditions will still prevail across all zones west of the plains. Localized critical fire weather conditions may exist across portions of the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, their adjacent highlands, and the Upper Rio Grande Valley Friday afternoon. Moisture will make another push westward on Saturday, reaching into the Rio Grande Valley, while areas along the Continental Divide and westward continue to see critical dry conditions. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon across the eastern plains and along the ridgeline of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Good recoveries and increased min RH will hang on through Sunday, before dry air intrudes into the region again, bringing min RH values back into the teens to single digits. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 73 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 37 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 33 76 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 76 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 40 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 79 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 67 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 72 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 63 32 64 / 0 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 27 64 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 33 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 71 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 41 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 46 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 45 85 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 84 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 46 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 44 84 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 79 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 46 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 43 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 78 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 76 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 62 34 67 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 35 71 33 74 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 37 72 36 75 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 41 71 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 59 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 43 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 77 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 45 74 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 44 76 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 46 81 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 51 91 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 51 85 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 49 84 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...42 ####018007942#### FXUS61 KAKQ 180538 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be ending later tonight, followed by dry and warm conditions Thursday. A backdoor cold front drops south of the area late Thursday and Thursday night, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Wednesday... The latest WX analysis an upper low slowly shows a stacked low pressure system over Lake Superior, with a downstream upper level ridge weakening over the NE CONUS. Strong sfc pressure falls are noted from western PA into the northern mid Atlantic over the past few hrs, and this should help lift a frontal boundary N of the MD eastern shore over through midnight. Little in the way of any shower activity over the FA (some spotty light showers are pushing through the MD ern shore),. Well upstream, a broken line of showers and tstms is moving across western PA/ to SE OH and northern WV. The main shortwave aloft associated with these shower/tstms is forecast to move east across NY/PA and the northern mid Atlantic overnight with the sfc cold front progged to weaken as it crosses the Appalachians. Will maintain slight chc PoPs for most of the CWA, primarily from about 03-07Z, with a small area of higher PoPs (30-40%) across the far NE zones closer to the front and slight better forcing. While some elevated tstms will be possible, sfc based CAPE is basically zero overnight so no strong storms are expected. Rain chances come to an end during the early morning hours, and the sky will tend to become partly cloudy to mostly clear prior to sunrise, with the exception of perhaps the Eastern Shore. Lows tonight remain mild, mostly ranging from the the upper 50s W (and on the ern shore) to the lower 60s elsewhere. With a mostly sunny sky Thursday, along with W to NW winds through most of the morning, expect temperatures to rebound rapidly, with aftn highs expected to range from the low-mid 80s well inland over VA/NC, to the mid 70s to around 80F closer to the coast (except locally cooler on the eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid- late aftn period as the flow turns onshore from the NE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front will move through on Thursday giving way to a mostly dry day. Western areas will be mostly sunny with eastern areas seeing partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be well-above normal with highs reaching the mid 80s inland and mid 70s closer to the coast. A backdoor cold front will attempt to push into part of the area Thursday night into early Friday. This will bring in more cloud cover across the east. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 40s across the Eastern Shore and northern locations, with lower 50s elsewhere. The backdoor front will retreat as a stronger cold front approaches from the northwest during the day on Friday. Rain chances will return with this front, though not until later Friday afternoon. Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are showing barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. High temperatures Friday will be in the 60s across the Eastern Shore and far northeast behind the backdoor front, with upper 70s to near 80s inland. Lingering showers will be likely into Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday... A secondary front will push in on Saturday. There could be some lingering shower activity across the far east during the first half of the day before the boundary moves through. Drier air will rush in behind the front resulting in a mostly clear end to the day, except for the far SE CWA. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 70s inland. The stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. The change will be most noticeable in the high temperatures starting Sunday though as the current forecast has mid 60s inland with lower 60s along the coast both Sunday and Monday. Models agree slightly better about a southern stream low pressure system moving out of the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Sunday into Monday. This means that rain chances will return, potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into Monday. Exact details will be worked out closer to time, but the best chance for rain currently looks to be south of Richmond. Temperatures may start to warm back up behind this system. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through this evening before deteriorating tonight. Today will be dry despite a weak cold front crossing the area during the morning-midday. Expect clear skies outside of FEW-SCT cumulus during the late morning-aftn. Winds will become NW at 5-10 kt by late morning-midday. Then, a backdoor cold front crosses the terminals from NE to SW between 21-03z. Winds become NE at ~10 kt (could see a brief period of 20 kt gusts near the coast) following the FROPA. In addition, MVFR- IFR stratus likely overspreads the entire area tonight/early Fri AM as the front moves well SW of the terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely at all of the terminals after 06z Fri. Outlook: Conditions slowly improve Friday (although restrictions may persist at SBY through much of the day) as the backdoor front retreats to the NE. A stronger cold front arrives from the NW and crosses the area late Friday/Friday night with scattered showers. Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sunday into early Monday as low pressure passes through the Carolinas. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday... Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over Wisconsin with an associated cold front extending SE then S across the Ohio Valley. High pressure has moved well off the Southeast coast. A warm front has lifted NE across the waters today with winds generally from the S or SE 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. Generally quiet marine conditions continue late this afternoon into the first half of Thursday. A back door cold front is forecast to drop from NE to SW Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds become N then NW behind the front but are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. A series of fronts will move through the region Friday into Saturday. The back door front returns north ahead of a stronger cold front set to cross the waters early Saturday. N winds will follow the second front but still below SCA levels. Seas may build to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island Thursday night into early Friday but with low confidence regarding the magnitude and exact timing. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JKP NEAR TERM...LKB/JKP SHORT TERM...JKP LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...ERI MARINE...RHR ####018005813#### FXUS64 KAMA 180539 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 A brief ridge is passing across the southern plains today continuing the dry and fair weather. Under this ridge the winds are on the lighter side with southwesterly gusts in the 20s mph. The temperatures are on the warm side with highs in the 80s across the panhandles. These elevated highs wont last as Thursday will see the ridge depart and a strong cold front passing across the panhandles. This front look to pass through the panhandles starting in the north during early morning hours before it departs south of the panhandles by the late morning hours. This front will bring a quick wind shift to the north and cause winds to become breezy and gusty. This will see the sustained winds mainly in the 20s mph and gusts in the 30s to 40s mph. These winds will push in much cooler air across the panhandles leading to a sharp decrease in the temperatures. This will see the highs drop roughly 15 to 25 degrees with 50s to 60s being common across the panhandles for Thursday. This front looks to be fairly dry and should lead to only clouds during the morning hours before this dissipate by the afternoon. What this front should bring is some blowing dust carried along those gusty winds. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Cooler temperatures are likely late this week through this weekend for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s to mid 60s from Friday through Sunday. Early next week temperatures will rebound to near or above average. Rain chances return to the region this weekend where some locations may receive beneficial rainfall once again. The cooler airmass will remain in place over the Panhandles Friday through Sunday. For Friday, southwest surface winds will usher in slightly warmer air for portions of the west so temperatures may be a few degrees warmer for some on Friday when compared to Thursday. The next upper level disturbance is forecast to move across the Southern High Plains starting Friday night and continuing through Sunday morning. Ample H700 theta-e advection out ahead of the leading edge of the wave should provide enough moisture for precipitation to develop once the better lift moves over the area. Most of the precipitation should be rain showers, but model guidance does have a few hundred joules of CAPE so isolated thunderstorms are certainly possible. Model spread in the higher area of rainfall totals continues to be quite high, but in general the southern TX Panhandle is the favored area for rain with this event. The 17/13z NBM gives an area from interstate 40 and further south a 60 to 90 percent chance at receiving 0.25 inches of rainfall. Will continue to monitor trends as we get closer to this weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be the coolest of this forecast period, with highs struggling to reach 50 for most, if not all locations due to persistent cloud cover and rain showers. The system will exit off to the east early on Sunday and cloud cover will decrease during the daytime. Highs should generally return to the upper 50s to upper 60s. For early next week, temperatures should increase back to near or above average with broad ridging settling in across the central and western CONUS. Weak waves embedded in the upper level flow may move across the area during the early parts of next week which may be enough to trigger some showers and/or storms if there is sufficient moisture throughout the column. Muscha && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 As of midnight, latest observations to our north were showing the expected cold frontal passage moving much faster than most model were anticipating with latest estimates expecting the front at KGUY within the hour. This front is expected to bring breezy to gusty northerly winds capable of gust near 35 to 40 mph for at least a majority of the overnight time frame. Secondary, is that this front is also creating a low stratus deck behind its passage that can create a delayed low cloud deck for all terminals. Based off the observations from the north this deck could drop site down IFR levels till the late morning. Have adjusted TAFs for a rough timing of the conditions but a 1 hour window of uncertainly on either side is present with this timing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 41 62 40 49 / 0 0 70 80 Beaver OK 37 63 36 52 / 0 0 50 60 Boise City OK 35 66 35 47 / 0 0 50 50 Borger TX 42 67 41 52 / 0 0 60 80 Boys Ranch TX 41 68 40 49 / 0 0 70 80 Canyon TX 40 63 40 49 / 0 0 70 90 Clarendon TX 43 62 42 49 / 0 0 70 90 Dalhart TX 35 67 35 46 / 0 0 60 60 Guymon OK 35 63 36 49 / 0 0 50 60 Hereford TX 41 66 40 51 / 0 0 70 90 Lipscomb TX 40 63 40 51 / 0 0 60 70 Pampa TX 41 63 40 49 / 0 0 60 80 Shamrock TX 42 63 42 50 / 0 0 70 90 Wellington TX 43 62 42 51 / 0 10 70 90 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...11