####018005330#### FXUS63 KLBF 040545 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow ends across southwest Nebraska by this evening, with dry conditions persisting through the end of the workweek. - Temperatures moderate into tomorrow and Friday, with highs in the 40s returning for much of western and southwest Nebraska. - A system crosses the area this weekend, and could bring light snow to portions of northern Nebraska. Any accumulations look to remain light at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Area observations in tandem with 511 Road Cameras depict a localized area of fog/freezing drizzle across portions of southwest Nebraska into northeast Colorado. This is occurring on the forward edge of some modest warm air/moisture advection where dew points have managed to climb into the middle 20s. This plume of richer low- level moisture, coincident with weak isentropic lift around the 275-280K surfaces, should allow activity to continue and lift north and east through southwest Nebraska and into the western Sandhills over the next few hours. Folks should be aware of the potential for slick roads in these areas early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Currently, light snow is gradually waning near and just north of I- 80, with the threat for even light accumulations quickly ending. An arctic front has moved into far southwest Nebraska this afternoon, with temperatures falling into the upper teens to 20s in its wake. As strong surface high pressure continues to spill southwards into western Iowa by tonight, skies will clear from north to south tonight. This, combined with weakening winds with the approach of the surface high will lead to efficient radiation cooling across much of the area. Lows tonight look to fall into the single digits for all, with areas across north central Nebraska approaching 0 by daybreak. Light southerly flow returns tonight across the area, on the western periphery of the surface high. This likely saves the area from widespread lows near/just below zero, with the weak warm advection boosting lows slightly. Still, the combination of cold temperatures and light south winds will lead to wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero east of HWY 83 tomorrow morning. By tomorrow, an upper level shortwave will eject across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with an associated surface low approaching International Falls by tomorrow evening. A trailing surface trough will eject east into the Sandhills tomorrow afternoon, with westerly downslope flow developing in its wake. This will shunt the shallow, cold arctic airmass into eastern Nebraska, with highs returning to the low to middle 40s across western Nebraska. Any light snow accumulations north of I-80 from today should melt amid the increasing warm advection tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Similar conditions prevail Friday, as dry northwest flow establishes aloft across the Plains. Persistent west-nortwest winds again promotes highs climbing into the middle to upper 40s for much of the area. By Saturday, upper troughing crosses the northern Rockies and into the Plains. Associated surface low pressure will eject southeast out of eastern WY/CO and into the southern Plains with time. As this low ejects southeast, this could lead to a threat for light snow, mainly across portions of northern Nebraska. Guidance remains at odds with respect to the track of surface features, and where snow would be favored. Still, ensemble means point towards at least light snow (~0.5-1.0") for areas north of HWY 2 Saturday into Sunday. This will need to be monitored, though confidence in accumulating snow remains low for now. Broad and persistent northwest flow then establishes across much of the central CONUS into early next week, suggesting a return of drier conditions to the area. Signals also exist for much warmer low level air to be in place, and bring a return of above average temperatures to western and north central Nebraska. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A brief period of freezing drizzle may be possible tonight across far southwest Nebraska, including the KIML airport, but confidence is low in how far north this will expand and at this time it should remain south of KLBF terminal. The rest of the area will see lower cigs with MVFR conditions possible through early to mid morning. Then cigs will lift and VFR conditions will return. Winds will increase by late morning/early afternoon out of the southwest with 10 to 15 kts sustained and gust up to 25 kts. Winds will diminish by evening with winds shifting to the west around 5 to 10 kts through the remainder of the forecast period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NMJ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Gomez ####018004241#### FXUS64 KAMA 040545 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Bands of snow showers are expected to continue through the overnight period with all activity looking to taper off by Thursday afternoon. - A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place over the Panhandles till noon as localized heavy snowfall can be present from these snow bands, which can lead to accumulation 1 to 4 inches over small areas. - Drier weather is expected to return for the weekend with temperatures looking to warm back into the 50s and 60s by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 As of late tonight, latest radar has indicated that the upper- level trough is making its way into the Panhandles with multiple bands of shower currently moving across the area. The heaviest of these band is currently shifting southeast out of Dalhart, TX where local reports have already seen 1 to 2 inches of snowfall for tonight. Meanwhile to the south, multiple smaller bands have brought flurries to even a brief period of graupel. Present CAMs expect this activity to continue to push southeast with a new band looking to once again set up somewhere in or around the I-40 corridor during the overnight hours. Depending on where this band ends up an extra 2 to 4 inches of snow could be add to isolated places across the Southern and Eastern Panhandles overnight. Given the now possible placement of this higher snowfall rate and the still ongoing snow in our north, we have decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to all counties through noon Thursday. By this time most models are in agreement that all snowfall will have pushed eastward out of the Panhandles with the exiting trough. Regardless this delayed exit will keep temperatures on the colder side for Thursday, with afternoon highs only reaching into the 30s to low 40s at best. By Friday, model agreement sees the Panhandles much drier as upper-level flow shifts more northwesterly. Temperatures for the day will also be much warmer with afternoon highs closer to the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Model agreement looks to see closed upper-level low settle over Hudson Bay in Canada, which in turn will set up northwesterly upper-level flow for the Panhandles as we move into the weekend. This flow alongside weak ridging does look to put an end to the Panhandles chances of active weather, with most ensembles keeping precipitation chances less than 10% through the middle of next week. These drier conditions will also prompt a bit of a warm up for the Panhandles with afternoon highs this weekend quickly returning to the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, next week could see high temperatures back into the 60s should this dry trend continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 As of late tonight, latest radar was seeing present snow showers progress southeast across Panhandles with still present impacts being seen at all terminals. For KDHT and KGUY, impacts from snow are likely to cease by around 3 to 4 am with present CAMS not expecting much back building over the area. However, clouds ceilings will likely stay IFR to LIFR through the overnight hours. As for KAMA, potential is still present to see snow clear through the overnight with both visibility and ceilings staying IFR to LIFR through the late morning hours of Thursday. Regardless conditions do look to dry out and clear up by the Thursday afternoon, with models seeing the system exit by then. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for TXZ001>020- 317. OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11 ####018007569#### FXUS66 KMTR 040545 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 945 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 818 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Cold Weather Advisory for southern Monterey and San Benito counties midnight to 8 am Thursday - Offshore winds relaxing through the day across the higher elevations - Benign conditions and no precipitation expected through the next seven days - Slight warming trend begins Friday through the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 Downsloping northerly winds resulted in a quickly clearing sky and warmer temperatures over the North Bay where it reached the 60s to lower 70s today. Highs across the rest of the Bay Area were generally in the 60s except in the mid 40s to 50s over the highest terrain. Highs were in the 50s to mid 60s over the north Central Coast. A Cold Weather Advisory was issued for southern interior Monterey and San Benito counties for midnight to 8 am Thursday. The air mass is dry which can radiate out at night fairly easily like in the desert with exception of cirrus clouds possibly slowing some of the outgoing radiative cooling. Dry weather continues with high pressure continuing through late week and the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows extensive high clouds across the Central Coast, medium-level clouds across the Bay Area south of the Golden Gate, and a thinner layer of high clouds across the North Bay. Across the higher elevations, strong northeasterly winds continue to gust up to 45 to 50 mph across favored locations, more generally around 25 to 35 mph. These are being driven by the interaction between a positively tilted trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Desert Southwest and an upper level ridge off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. The combination results in northerly flow over the region and a offshore pressure gradient, although with the trough starting to move eastwards, the gradient is gradually relaxing. The SFO-WMC gradient, which peaked at -8.9 mb as of 7 AM this morning, has slackened to -6.3 as of Noon. Model guidance shows the gradient continuing to gradually relax over the next 24 hours. Another push of offshore flow is expected tonight, but the gusts will not be as strong and the winds should return to a more northwesterly onshore flow tomorrow. High temperatures today and tomorrow will hover in the upper 50s to the middle 60s for the lower elevations, down to the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. Lows will reach the upper 30s to the lower 40s in the inland valleys, and into the middle to upper 40s along the coast. Chilly lows in the lower to middle 30s are expected in the southern reaches of Monterey County, but the coverage is not widespread enough, especially across the southern Salinas Valley, to issue a Cold Weather Advisory. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The forecast conditions remain remarkably stable with the conditions remaining generally dry and benign through the 7 day outlook. Although a couple of storm systems will impact the West Coast, the upper level flow will divert them to the north. As a result, while the Pacific Northwest and the North Coast see a couple shots of rain, the current forecast depicts the rain chances for our part of the state remaining offshore, sometimes tantalizing close to the shoreline. The eastern Pacific ridge will build into the southwestern US during this time, allowing a gradual warming trend to begin on Friday and last through the weekend. By the early part of next week, temperatures in the inland valleys could rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the coast remaining in the lower to middle 60s. The next chance for substantial rainfall across the region lie closer to the middle of the month, and at this point in the forecast, the uncertainty can be best described as "Here be dragons". Considering that the moisture to power such a system currently lies in the western Pacific and the parent low pressure system has yet to form over Asia, this is not surprising. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR through the TAF period. Light offshore flow will help to keep drier air over the region and mitigate fog potential. If fog is able to redevelop in the northern Central Valley there may be some potential for fog to extend up the delta and reach APC. Winds generally stay light and offshore through the TAF period but may become lightly onshore during the afternoon/evening as a weak sea breeze tries to develop. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light, generally offshore winds persist through tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is that a weak sea breeze will develop late tomorrow afternoon/evening with winds peaking around 8-10 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light winds continue at MRY and SNS through the TAF period. Moderate SE drainage winds are possible early Thursday morning at Salinas before winds become NNW during the afternoon/evening hours. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 818 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 Moderate NW winds will persist through the afternoon and decrease to a gentle breeze by Thursday. Rough seas in the outer waters will gradually diminish overnight as the winds ease and westerly swell abates. After a brief favorable weather window on Thursday, northerly winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze on Friday, rebuilding moderate seas up to 8 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Thursday for CAZ516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018004895#### FXUS64 KOHX 040546 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1146 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10". - Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN this evening from roughly 6PM-2AM. Some slick spots may develop tonight. Be cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state. - Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An active 24 to 36 hours is ahead of us as a system stemming from the gulf brings a variety of precip types to Middle TN. There was some concern earlier for a brief bout of wintry precip before sunrise, but profiles don't look like they'll be saturated enough for that to occur. For the main system, CAMs have almost unanimously brought the onset of precip earlier over Middle TN tomorrow. Here's the deal: freezing air from the north will collide with this incoming rain, likely resulting in a mixed bag of winter precip types as the system moves east-northeast and surface temps hover right around freezing. What will initially start as a cool rain as it enters southwest middle TN around 6PM will eventually transition to a mix. IMPACTS: Ice- The area of greatest concern for ice impacts is along the Cumberland Plateau. There is currently a 60% chance of 0.10" of ice accumulation over portions of the plateau. Elsewhere in Middle TN, with there being varied types of precip possible with below-freezing temperatures, slick spots may develop Thursday night/Friday morning, especially over bridges, overpasses, and any sheltered roads. With surface temperatures hovering right around the freezing mark, soundings favor episodes of both sleet and freezing rain along and south of I-40. Snow- Accumulating snowfall probabilities are low overall, with a 30-40% chance of a half-inch falling over portions of northwest middle TN. The HREF paints a large swath of a medium 40-50% chance of a tenth of an inch of snow over the northern half of middle TN. Precip will come to an end by early Friday morning and temperatures will make a run at 40-45 degrees by the afternoon. That's good news if any impacts are felt as that will help melt things off. The whole area will drop near or below freezing again Friday night, but much warmer temperatures on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer are in store Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Saturday will be dry and cloudy as our next system approaches by Sunday. Widespread low rain chances will return with rain chances between 20-30% Sunday evening. Another invasion of cold air will be left in the wake of this system's exit Monday, and as rain moves off to the east, lingering wraparound moisture could squeeze out a few snowflakes across the plateau Monday morning. Chances of that right now are very low, but will be something to monitor. We will dry out and enjoy a slight warming trend for the first half of next week as temperatures return back to near normal values by Wednesday (mid 50s). Our next system is slated to move through next Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions continue as clouds increase across the area. Still watching for the potential for MVFR cigs to move into northwest Middle TN tonight and moving as far east as BNA and MQY. Guidance has backed off on this, reducing forecaster confidence. However, maintained MVFR cigs overnight and into early Thursday morning for CKV, BNA, and MQY. The main aviation impact thereafter will be precipitation moving into the area starting around 00Z. A wintry mix is expected at BNA, MQY, CSV, and SRB with all snow at CKV. This will bring MVFR to IFR cigs and vis to all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 30 41 33 47 / 0 20 60 0 Clarksville 26 36 27 44 / 0 10 30 0 Crossville 26 41 31 43 / 10 10 80 40 Columbia 28 40 32 47 / 10 30 80 0 Cookeville 27 40 32 44 / 0 10 70 30 Jamestown 26 39 30 43 / 0 10 70 40 Lawrenceburg 28 41 32 46 / 10 30 80 10 Murfreesboro 27 42 32 46 / 10 20 70 10 Waverly 28 37 28 44 / 10 30 50 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Clements ####018005699#### FXUS61 KRLX 040546 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1246 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Front crosses Thursday morning, with light snow shower activity. Additional systems possible late this week and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 845 PM Wednesday... A special weather statement will remain in effect into Thursday morning for the anticipated burst of snowfall expected with a cold front. Models currently project this snow to arrive to our Ohio counties between 4am-6am, then moving WNW to ESE across our area. Currently, SE Ohio, northern WV and the northeastern mountains have the highest probabilities for seeing accumulations associated with this wave of snowfall. Amounts will be light, generally less than an inch, but most of this will be falling in a short amount of time and during the morning commute. As of 1230 PM Wednesday... High pressure in control across the area today will provide dry conditions. Widespread low cloud cover across the area is much slower to erode than the models have been indicating, but it is finally showing some signs across the south. Extended the period of mostly cloudy sky conditions from previous forecast, with the possibility that not everywhere will totally clear, before additional clouds filter in from the north again with the approach of a cold front. This will spread light snow showers back into the area for Thursday, primarily across northern zones, but possible much of the CWA. Generally less than half an inch of accumulation is anticipated at this time. This could cause some impacts on untreated roadways Thursday morning, and have elected to issue a special weather statement to highlight this potential. Temperatures will remain near to or slightly below average for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1238 PM Wednesday... Friday morning will be quite cold behind Thursdays frontal passage, with lows in the teens, to possibly the single digits across the north. Focus on Friday then shifts to a system that will move east across the Gulf States. Still uncertainty in how far north the precipitation shield will make it, with continued run to run inconsistencies in the models. In addition, precipitation type is also a bit uncertain at times/in spots, depending on moisture profile/depth, and whether there will be much in the way of crystal growth. Models still overall continue the drier trend, with greater chances mainly along our extreme southern/mountain zones. In fact, much of the area may remain mostly dry. However, the blend of models continues to paint much of the CWA with a chance of pops, with liklies across the south on Friday, and will maintain, as there continues to be uncertainty. System will depart to the east Friday evening into Saturday, with drier conditions taking hold. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... The weekend still looks to be rather uncertain, but appears to be trending drier. Another system may affect the area early next week, providing another round of wintry weather to the area, but even this is highly variable between the different model solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... Ceilings will lower to MVFR or worse as a cold front approaches from the northwest and then sweeps across the area this morning. Snow showers accompanying the front may also produce a period of IFR visibilities, mainly at PKB, CKB, and EKN. Ceilings slowly improve from northwest to southeast behind the front late afternoon into the night. Light winds strengthen across the area during the day, with 15 to 25 kt gusts expected to materialize along the mountains by afternoon. The wind direction is expected to pivot from southwest to northwest behind the front, then winds shift to northeasterly after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of snow showers and associated restrictions this morning may vary from forecast. timing of improvement to VFR may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/04/25 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M L H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M L M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H L H L H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in a wintry mix Friday and Friday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...SL/LTC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...20 ####018005300#### FXUS64 KMOB 040547 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents Thursday night through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Low clouds have finally cleared out of the area as of midday. The extended period of cloud cover this morning has delayed our warming with most areas still in the mid to upper 40s as of noon. We nudged down the previous forecast high temperatures a few degrees and most locations should top out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Upper level flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow over the next 24 hours and persist through the weekend. A series of embedded shortwaves will move across the region in this pattern, setting the stage for a very wet end of the week. The first shortwave will begin to impact us overnight tonight into Thursday. Rain will develop and spread in from west to east after midnight through Thursday in response to increasing southwest flow above the surface and strengthening isentropic lift. This combined with an impressive return of deep layer moisture (PWATs increasing to 1.5-1.75") will mean that periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected. After this first round of rain, we may see periods of less coverage and intensity in the rain Thursday night through Friday night, but details are uncertain and hinge on the timing of the subtle embedded shortwaves. Bottom line is that that high rain chances will persist. We will also be monitoring a surface low that is forecast to develop over SE LA late Friday night and move toward the Florida Panhandle Friday morning. As the low develops, a warm front will move north toward the coast. At this point, it appears that the best instability will remain offshore, thus limiting the threat for strong to severe storms along the immediate coast. However, we will continue to monitor this closely. There is no concern for severe weather further inland. By Saturday and Saturday night, it appears the best focus for additional rain will be along and southeast of the I-65 corridor as a stronger shortwave approaches from the west. Rain chances are expected to diminish in earnest from west to east by Sunday as a longwave upper level trough amplifies over the eastern half of the country. We should then see dry weather as we head into early next week. Rainfall totals of 2-4" are increasingly likely over parts of the area and we cannot rule out isolated totals as high as 6". Guidance continues to differ on exactly where the band of heaviest rain will occur, so there is some uncertainty there. However, the latest probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities of seeing 4" of rain currently resides along and southeast of the I-65 corridor (30-50% chance). Did we mention it's going to be a cold rain? It definitely will be, especially on Thursday with highs only topping out in the upper 40s well inland to mid/upper 50s on the immediate coast. We may get temperatures to briefly reach the upper 60s to near 70 along the immediate coast on Friday with the warm front, but that will be short lived. High temperatures will likely be at or below normal for the weekend through early next week with lows in the 30s returning by Monday night. 34/JFB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight, followed by increasing clouds and lower ceilings moving into the area from the west late tonight through Thursday morning along with increasing rain chances. IFR conditions can be expected for much of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the area. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A brief period of moderate onshore flow is likely over the Gulf waters Friday morning as a surface low and warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle. We cannot rule out a few strong storms over the open Gulf waters Friday morning. A general light offshore over the weekend will likely strengthen by Monday as a strong surface high builds in from the north. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 42 54 46 56 / 60 100 80 70 Pensacola 47 58 51 61 / 40 90 80 90 Destin 47 59 52 66 / 20 80 80 90 Evergreen 36 52 43 56 / 40 90 90 80 Waynesboro 36 47 40 52 / 50 100 90 60 Camden 34 47 40 52 / 30 90 90 70 Crestview 39 53 45 60 / 20 90 90 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ ####018006403#### FXUS61 KALY 040548 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions through this evening across eastern New York and western New England. An arctic cold front moves through tomorrow bringing scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and isolated snow squalls during the late morning and early afternoon hours. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: - Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty winds tomorrow associated with an Arctic cold front. - In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will take hold tomorrow night into Friday. Discussion: For the rest of today, dry conditions continue with increasing cloudiness from the west as surface high pressure heads east. A quick moving upper level trough from our north moves through tonight and tomorrow bringing chances for lake effect snow showers and snow squalls. Ahead of an approaching arctic cold front tomorrow, lake effect snow showers reach into Herkimer and Hamilton counties bringing light snowfall accumulations between 1 to 2 inches. Confidence continues to increase for the potential of snow squalls to develop to our west and move eastward into the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga region late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. How far east these snow squalls could reach is still fluctuating with high resolution forecast model guidances. Nevertheless, be prepared tomorrow for quickly changing traveling conditions due to these gusty snow showers. Winds will be breezy tomorrow as the front moves through and behind it for the late afternoon and early evening hours with the current forecast supporting 25-35 mph. Similar to the previous forecast, there could be stronger gusts as winds aloft are stronger and if they mix down from above the surface it could contribute to over 35 mph. Winds decrease as the upper level trough quickly heads east late tomorrow afternoon and evening with dry conditions returning. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow before the arctic cold front range in the teens and 20s. There won't be too much fluctuation with the temperatures ahead of this front due to the clouds overhead helping keep them from becoming colder. Behind the front is a different story due to clearing skies and recent snowpack, temperatures are forecasted to decrease significantly from the teens/20s to the single digits and teens. With the breezy winds too, it's going to feel even colder outside with feels-like temperatures in the single digits and negative 5 to 15 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week. As of 1:45 PM...The forecast for the long term is still on track from the previous shift, see the discussion below for more details. Discussion: High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to 5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high pressure shifts east off the coast. A storm system is expected to track well south of the region across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but not as cold as Thu night. Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper system may bring some snow on Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...An Arctic cold front will move southeast across the area this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and squalls will accompany the front. Will continue to mention PROB30 for any snow squalls which should be brief lasting around 20 minutes or less. Time frame looks to be between 16z-21z from KGFL to KALB to KPSF. The squalls should weaken prior to reaching KPOU. Mainly VFR conditions will occur through the 24 hour TAF period, but brief IFR/LIFR vsby and MVFR cigs are possible within the snow squalls. Also a few hour period of MVFR cigs may occur at KGFL after 12z this morning. Skies will clear later this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt developing. Gusts of 30-40 kt are also likely with any snow squalls. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt this evening. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05/07 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...07 ####018010688#### FXUS65 KABQ 040548 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1048 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1044 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Accumulating snow will impact northern and central New Mexico through early Thursday morning, making for difficult travel and low visibility. Snow amounts will be heaviest in the northern mountains, Sandia/Manzanos, and near the Colorado border. - Strong northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across east central New Mexico Saturday, especially for large and high- profile vehicles. && .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 A winter storm moving east across northern and central NM this evening is showing signs of trending toward the higher end of the probabilistic guidance envelope. The Sandia/Manzano Mts were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning and may end up the epicenter of this system. The Moriarty area was added to the Winter Weather Advisory and a larger Special Weather Statement was issued for eastern NM. A 130kt H3 jet slicing northeast across central NM is interacting with a well-defined baroclinic zone and backdoor cold front. Two lesser defined mid-level waves over western NM will move east in this pattern and continue to provide additional lift thru late tonight within central NM. The thermodynamic profile is just shy of optimal dendritic snow growth as well. Nonetheless, spotters have reported snowfall rates of 1"/hr in the Sandia/ Manzano Mts with similar rates likely in the Jemez and parts of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The latest hi-res model guidance and higher NBM snow probabilities support additional snow thru the predawn hours before tapering off around sunrise. Additional upgrades are possible as new information becomes available. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 The upper low is moving east across north central AZ per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is near 553dam at 500mb per some 18Z upper air data across the region. At the same time, a backdoor cold front is plodding west into the central mountain chain and will result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon through the overnight hours. Precipitation associated with the approaching upper low is already bringing snow-covered roadways and difficult driving conditions to the higher elevations of northern NM, but further deterioration is expected as precipitation increases in coverage and intensity then shifts east across NM through the evening hours. Our forecast snow amounts didn't change much from the previous forecast cycle and justify the winter highlights that are either already in effect or will go into effect later today. Light snow accumulations of around 0.5" are possible in the ABQ Metro, with higher amounts of 1-2" possible east of Tramway. Morning commutes will be impacted by snow-covered and icy roadways Thursday, including but not limited to the Santa Fe Metro, Los Alamos, Taos and Albuquerque's East Mountain Communities. Cold conditions will prevail Thursday behind the departing upper low, with high temperatures forecast to be generally 10-15 degrees below average. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday night, which will be one of the coldest nights so far this season for many locales with low temperatures generally 0-10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft continues Friday with some warming, although with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. The jetstream will dive southeast from the Pacific NW toward the southern Rockies and northern NM Friday night into Saturday, bringing strong northwest winds to the peaks of the northern mountains and eventually down to the highlands of eastern NM Saturday morning. 700mb winds speeds are forecast to reach up to between 40-50kts early Saturday morning from near Clines Corners north along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to the CO border. Wind highlights may be required for this area late Friday night through mid day Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft will then persist through the middle of next week, but with a warming trend as pressure heights increase in response to an expanding ridge of high pressure across SoCal and the Desert SW. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Widespread aviation impacts continue late this evening as a winter storm moves east across the airspace. Areas of snow with IFR cigs/vsbys will continue around the central and northern high terrain with mt obscurations, icing, and turbulence expected. Large areas of IFR will also develop over eastern NM thru sunrise Thursday. Snow will then taper off over the entire area with a few flurries lingering along the central mt chain. Slow clearing will take place from west to east Thursday morning. A few area of far eastern NM may not clear out until late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. An upper low and backdoor cold front combo will impact northern and central NM today through early Thursday with increasing humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. Mostly poor vent rates with continued higher humidity and colder conditions will prevail Thursday in the wake of the departing upper low. Strengthening northwest flow aloft will bring windy to very windy conditions to the higher terrain of northern NM Friday night into Saturday, including the eastern highlands. A notable warming and drying trend is forecast from early through the middle of next week, with temperatures trending above average. Vent rates will be mostly poor from early to mid next week as pressure heights increase and temperature inversions are the rule in the lower atmosphere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 25 37 19 39 / 30 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 20 36 10 39 / 70 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 20 36 13 38 / 80 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 18 40 13 45 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 21 39 16 43 / 50 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 19 44 13 47 / 50 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 23 39 14 43 / 50 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 26 43 22 47 / 40 0 0 0 Datil........................... 22 41 18 44 / 40 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 21 51 16 54 / 40 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 24 55 20 57 / 40 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 31 8 35 / 80 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 22 35 18 38 / 90 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 18 36 18 42 / 90 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 19 32 13 36 / 90 10 0 0 Red River....................... 11 32 9 35 / 90 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 11 30 3 36 / 100 10 0 0 Taos............................ 20 34 9 36 / 90 10 0 0 Mora............................ 13 38 14 43 / 100 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 41 16 44 / 80 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 23 36 21 39 / 80 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 38 17 39 / 80 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 28 41 25 43 / 80 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 30 44 21 45 / 70 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 47 20 47 / 70 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 44 22 46 / 70 0 0 0 Belen........................... 30 46 17 47 / 70 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 44 21 46 / 70 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 29 45 17 46 / 70 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 45 20 47 / 70 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 46 18 47 / 70 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 26 39 23 41 / 80 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 44 22 46 / 70 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 31 51 23 53 / 40 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 21 35 18 37 / 80 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 24 38 18 40 / 80 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 21 38 15 40 / 90 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 21 38 14 40 / 80 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 17 33 17 36 / 90 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 23 39 18 42 / 80 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 41 20 43 / 80 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 30 47 25 49 / 70 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 24 42 26 45 / 70 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 16 34 13 42 / 80 0 0 0 Raton........................... 18 36 13 46 / 90 0 0 0 Springer........................ 19 39 11 45 / 90 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 16 36 14 43 / 90 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 21 37 20 46 / 80 0 0 0 Roy............................. 20 34 15 44 / 90 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 24 42 17 49 / 90 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 24 40 25 47 / 90 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 23 44 20 51 / 80 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 26 43 26 54 / 70 20 0 0 Portales........................ 26 44 27 55 / 60 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 44 25 53 / 80 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 31 47 23 60 / 40 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 27 44 25 56 / 50 0 0 0 Elk............................. 24 47 22 56 / 40 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ203- 210>212-214-216-218-222-223-228-229. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ213-215-221- 227. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42