####018007860#### FXUS66 KMTR 070016 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 416 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Benign conditions through the next seven days with no precipitation expected and a gradual warming trend - Impacts from Tule Fog continue in the North Bay and interior East Bay valleys, with potential for expansion across the rest of the Bay Area tonight - Next chance for rain towards the middle of the month && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 (This evening through Sunday) The current satellite image shows dissipating stratus across the Santa Clara Valley and the San Francisco Bay Shoreline, while the City and the valleys of the North Bay and interior East Bay remain socked in the spillover from the Tule Fog across the Central Valley. Towards the western parts of Sonoma and Marin counties, the Tule Fog spillover merges with marine layer stratus. The trend of the last couple of days has been the models struggling to accurately reflect the evolution of the Tule Fog in the North and East bay valleys. Model output shows the stratus deck beginning to dissipate over the North Bay valleys now, but that does not appear to be happening. I have tamped down the highs for today and tomorrow across the Bay Area in response to the model's struggles. The current forecast has today's highs in the upper 50s across the Bay Area valleys, with central and eastern Contra Costa County and far eastern Alameda County seeing highs in the lower to middle 50s. This does assume that the stratus does eventually mix out this afternoon, and if the stratus lingers through the day, the North and East bay valleys might not get out of the 40s. Tomorrow's forecast currently has the highs warming by a couple of degrees, within a couple degrees of 60 for most of the area, but this is highly dependent on how the Tule Fog evolves tonight into Sunday morning, and could also need to be dropped if the stratus sticks around long enough tomorrow. Meanwhile, over in the Central Coast the skies are clear, have remained generally clear this morning, and will remain clear during the afternoon and evening hours. Model output is showing some possibility for stratus to develop in the Monterey Bay region and northern Salinas Valley tonight. While is some reason to second- guess the model output, for the reasons stated above, those reasons lean towards more stratus being present than the current forecast. However, any influence from the Tule Fog will be limited to the far eastern reaches of San Benito and southern Monterey Counties, where the Gabilan Range abuts the Central Valley. Highs in the Central Coast reach the middle to upper 60s in the inland valleys, to the lower to middle 60s closer to Monterey Bay, perhaps into the lower 70s in some of the sheltered valleys within the Santa Lucia and Gabilan ranges. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) Ridging will dominate the weather patterns through the rest of the 7- day outlook, enabling a gradual warming trend across the region. The highs will peak around the later part of the upcoming work week with highs in the inland valleys reaching the middle 60s to middle 70s, around 8 to 13 degrees above the seasonal average. As with the short term forecast, the biggest source of uncertainty will be how the Tule Fog develops every night and morning, impacting the temperatures across the North and East Bay valleys. The deterministic forecast has the East Bay interior valleys remaining in the lower to middle 60s, but depending on how the Tule Fog evolves the temperatures could easily vary by around 10 degrees on either side of the current forecast. A couple of storm systems will approach the West Coast during the 7- day outlook, but the ridging pattern will deflect the brunt of the storms to the Pacific Northwest and leave us with a chance of drizzle in the coastal waters while land areas remain dry. Longer range model guidance suggests a possible change in the weather pattern towards the middle of the month. Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show some of the model members (somewhere around 30-40% of the ensemble members) depicting a breakdown of the ridge. however, most of the ensemble members and the ensemble means point to the ridge persisting over the western United States, or flattening out into a zonal flow pattern. Uncertainty remains rather high in this part of the forecast and we will keep an eye on what the trend from later model runs turns out to be. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 416 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds and fog continue in the North Bay and interior East Bay. Expect cloud cover in these areas to lower further into the night and the fog to become thicker. The SF Bay terminals as well as SJC see CIGs arrive overnight with some slight reductions in visibilities. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the morning, with wind directions determined by more localized affects. Cloud cover and fog will be slow to erode into Sunday, but conditions look to improve into the afternoon. However, the North and East Bay will continue to struggle with low clouds and fog, causing some doubt for clearing at STS and LVK, while APC doesn't look to clear for Sunday afternoon. While over sites see less chances for low clouds and fog into that afternoon, pockets of haze will affect much of the region. Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into early Sunday morning. Moderate northerly winds become lighter and more westerly into the night before becoming more variable into early Sunday morning as IFR CIGs fill over the terminal. CIGs scatter in the mid morning, and moderate northwest winds arrive that afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light for MRY through the TAF period, while SNS sees moderate northwest winds become light into the early night. Expect winds to turn southeast overnight. Northwest winds return Sunday afternoon with the potential for haze along the coast. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 416 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 Strong to near gale force gusts will be possible through the end of the weekend, with breezy northwest winds lasting into the middle of next work week. Moderate seas with wave heights 6 to 8 feet across the outer waters this weekend. A new, long period northwesterly swell is anticipated by Wednesday of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018006771#### FXUS62 KMHX 070016 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 716 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas this weekend, as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will move through early next week with low pressure developing along it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 645 PM Saturday... Based on the latest guidance, and current temperature trends, the mention of freezing fog was expanded to include more of the coastal plain later this evening into early Sunday morning. The back edge of the cirrus shield has now reached central NC, and guidance suggests it will reach ENC around 10pm this evening. It's after this point that the probability of fog is expected to increase, and short-term guidance continues to show a decent signal for this. We'll continue to closely monitor trends to determine if fog headlines are needed, including the potential for any freezing fog headlines. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Area of isentropically driven -RA cont to sweep eastward through ENC, with most widespread south of Hwy 70 and little to no rain to the north. This band of lift and associated rain will shift eastward and weaken by evening, with a quiet and cool night ensuing. Some patchy to areas of fog again tonight, with the potential for some patches of fzfg acrs the nwrd coastal plain counties. Lows in the low 30s away from the beaches, and in the 30s to near 40 beachfront. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...High pres dominates with temps warming back into the 50s, still below climo but closer to where we should be for early Dec. Skies will be partly cloudy to the north, to mostly cloudy south where an active subtropical jet cont to stream mid/high clouds through the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...Small precip chances Mon, with dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end. Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end. There may be some overlap where rain mixes with and changes over to some snow, but very limited to no impacts expected even if this low end scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the 40s and a 'warm' ground would be in place. Mon night lows will be the coldest of the period, with 20-25 on the mainland, and 30-35 on the beaches and immediate coast. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board return as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind Monday's front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning. Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low chc (30%) or lower for now. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Moderate to high confidence in FG formation tonight, including a risk of FZFG Widespread IFR CIGs are ongoing across ENC this evening, including all TAF sites. The IFR conditions are holding on longer than previously forecast, and the TAFs have been updated to reflect this trend. The question, then, is when do low clouds clear out (if at all), and how quickly will BR/FG form after that point. There appears to be 2 possible scenarios. 1) Low CIGS continue to linger longer than expected, then gradually lower through the night with modest reductions to VIS. 2) Low CIGs clear out, and widespread FG develops shortly after with significant reductions to VIS. The latest guidance appears to be leaning towards scenario #2, and the TAFs will reflect this as well. In either scenario, a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions are expected, and confidence in IFR/LIFR is now high. The biggest difference between the 2 scenarios appears to be whether or not VIS drops to LIFR, and whether or not temperatures fall below freezing, allowing a period of FZFG to develop. At this point, the probability of FZFG is 20-40% for KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV, and <20% for KEWN. Given only modest probabilities, I've opted to keep FZFG out of the TAFs for now, but this potential will be closely monitored. CIGs and VIS should gradually improve Sunday morning, but in this type of pattern, improvement tends to be slower. I expect all sites to be back to VFR by Sunday afternoon. Outlook: By Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR flight cats likely as the developing low pressure makes it closest point of approach. VFR conditions are then once again expected Tue into Wed across ENC. && .MARINE... As of 3 PM...Latest obs show light nwrly winds in the 5-15 kt range, and seas of 3-5 ft, highest outer waters. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend with stalled front offshore. Winds become N-NE tonight and Sunday but remain light. Seas will subside to mainly 2-4 ft tonight, occasionally up to 5 ft across the outer central waters. Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in nrly winds. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of Cape Hatteras. A gale watch has been issued where probs for gales exceed 80%. Seas will quickly inc to 6-10 ft during the day Mon and remain there through early Tue. Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RM/SGK MARINE...TL ####018006900#### FXUS61 KBGM 070018 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 718 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers expected along and north of the Mohawk Valley this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The weather pattern will remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for light snow over the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A weak shortwave moving has kicked off scattered snow showers across the region. Most of the radar returns over our area are not reaching the ground as dewpoint depressions are 10-15 degrees across the area. A few heavier showers have allowed quick bursts of snow to fall across the northern counties. This will continue through the afternoon. The shortwave trough axis will pass through the area this evening, bringing more of a westerly wind across the area and generating some light lake effect snow showers along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Snow amounts will be light, with a trace to a few tenths of an inch of snow falling for most of the area. Northern Oneida county could see up to 1.5 inches of snow if we can get a few hours of steady lake effect showers tonight. Lake effect showers will dissipate tonight as winds shift to more SWerly as another trough approaches from the west. A shortwave and associated weak surface low will pass over the region Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered snow showers mostly along and north of the Southern Tier. The highest chances for snow looks to be over the northern counties of our CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be a quick hitter with weak moisture availability so snowfall amounts will be light. The northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county should see around 1-2 inches of snow, with areas south to the Southern Tier seeing a trace to an inch of snow. Temperatures today and Sunday will top out in the low to mid 30s, with today being slightly warmer. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s in the valleys with mid to upper teens across higher elevations. Sunday night will see a sharp drop in temps behind the departing low pressure system with lows falling into the low to mid teens across NEPA and stretching NW into the the Finger Lakes. The rest of the area will see temps in the mid to upper single digits with northern Oneida county falling to near 0. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will slowly transit the area Monday into Tuesday. This will keep us dry but very cold as the mid level ridge and surface high push cold arctic air overhead. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach 20 across CNY, with NEPA in the low 20s. Overnight will be the coldest of the week as temps will bottom out in the low to mid single digits across the entire area. The northern Finger Lakes will be in the upper single digits and higher elevations in the Catskills and northern Oneida county will be a few degrees below 0. Tuesday will see a warm up as winds shift to SWerly ahead of another approaching shortwave. Highs east of I-81 will remain in the mid to upper 20s while west of I-81 will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will be non diurnal and not expected to cool much Tuesday night as continued SW flow pushes warm air into the region. Temps Tuesday night should remain about as warm as they were in the afternoon. Snow showers will return Tuesday afternoon as a weak open wave pushes through the region. Isentropic uplift will drive these showers, with the bulk of the showers expected to be north of the Southern Tier Tuesday afternoon and overnight. 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The overall pattern does not change much this week, with a ridge off the west coast of Canada and a trough over the eastern portion of Canada. This pattern allows Alberta clippers to push into the region with cold air usually in trail. This pattern will produce the periods of snow discussed above, and this will continue to drive clippers across the region through the end of the week. The first clipper of this period looks to push through Wed. Precip currently looks to be a mix of rain and snow thanks to the warm air advection that took place before this system arrived. Lake effect showers should develop behind the system Wednesday night as it exits to the east. Another clipper will be fast on its heals, moving into the area Thursday night/Friday morning. This one could be a little more interesting as guidance wants to dig the trough farther south through the Ohio River Valley, allowing the surface low to pass us to the S and E and tap into the jet stream which will be over the eastern seaboard. With the expected colder air in place from the clipper that went through on Thursday, an all snow event could develop. We will be monitoring this development over the next several days. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low stratus has been more widespread and a little lower than expected this evening so the MVFR cigs have been expanded to cover more terminals and a greater time period tonight. Still looks like some dry air may try to work into the Finger Lakes and lift ITH to VFR and scatter out cigs at BGM. SYR and RME look to remain under the stratus deck with lower chances of dry air working in thanks to proximity to Lake Ontario. Models show moisture from Lake Erie moving through ELM all night into tomorrow so decided to keep MVFR cigs in through the next 24 hours. AVP will likely hold onto VFR cigs with more drying farther from the Great Lakes until late tomorrow when a cold front moves in. Some light snow is possible tomorrow afternoon mainly in CNY so SYR and RME may see some IFR vis tomorrow afternoon and evening. Lower confidence south for ITH, ELM, and BGM so no snow has been added to the TAFs yet. Outlook... Sunday Night...Scattered snow showers, mainly in NY. Monday...Becoming mainly VFR, but lingering restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and/or light snow showers in the morning. Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially in the afternoon and overnight. Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system approaches the region with snow and rain showers. Thursday...Restrictions possible with snow showers possible in the area. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG