####018008973#### FXUS61 KILN 110100 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 800 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong system will move through today bringing with it a transition from rain to snow showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. A couple of systems Thursday night into Friday morning and Saturday into Saturday night are both expected to bring accumulating snow to the region. Very cold air will filter in bringing near or below zero wind chill values both Sunday and Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Evening update (8pm)... Temperatures continue to fall across the area from the mid and upper 30s to the lower 30s. A combination of rain-snow mix is shifting southeastward into northeast Kentucky and southern Ohio this evening, and will eventually result in all-snow precipitation types during the overnight. An SPS for light snowfall accumulations is currently posted area wide for tonight and Thursday morning. While a weak shortwave may provide some periods of light snow to the area, any concentration of snow showers will likely be the main concern for slick travel. At this time, the best corridor is stretching southeastward from Lake Michigan, moving into eastern Indiana and far western Ohio this evening. Depending on the longevity of this band, localized accumulations up to a half inch are occurring, resulting in slick spots to roadways. The area of most concern is currently from Wayne County Indiana through Hamilton County Ohio and as far south as Mason County Kentucky. Will continue to monitor local road conditions through the evening hours there for potential more localized SPS issuances... Updates regarding the winter weather advisory for Thursday evening through Friday morning can be found in the Short Term Section. Previous discussion (133pm)... A gap in precip behind an enhanced band with wind gusts from 30-40kts currently near KCMH to just east of KLUK. Falling temperatures working into the forecast area, with a rain/snow shower mix with wind gusts to 35kts in the cold air advection wrap around moisture. Wind gusts 30-35kts are more likely now behind the main frontal boundary, with a changeover to all snow showers after 4pm working east through the area. Moisture does diminish pretty quickly, but still the potential for a very light coating of a tenth or two of snow especially on elevated surfaces as the evening progresses. Continued the SPS for winds and slick surfaces through 00z for now, as well as expecting to continue mention of these in the HWO. Strong CAA and diminishing wind gusts overnight under cloudy skies as the upper trough pivots through the region. Overnight lows in the lower 20s north to upper 20s south. Moisture becomes more sparse overnight, so snow showers will diminish in coverage. Wind gusts will diminish overnight, but winds remain slightly elevated near 10mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Winter weather advisory update (8pm)... After coordination with surrounding offices, it was decided that confidence is high enough over a specific stretch of the Ohio Valley to issue a winter weather advisory this evening for the snow expected Thursday evening through Friday morning. The latest 19Z NBM outlines an area of >3" of snow accumulation at 60 to 80% from southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Therefore, the advisory issued this evening generally falls within the counties that currently have a 3" forecast. An expansion to the advisory is certainly probable given lower snowfall amounts will still lead to travel impacts Friday morning. Confidence decreases farther north up I-75 and I-71, but that may change in the next 12 hours. For now, this advisory is the "first call" based on the 24 hour onset period for impacts and the highest confidence. Remain updated for changes over the next few forecast cycles. Previous discussion (133pm)... A brief lull in precip expected on Thursday, though per several of the CAMs, continued with at least a slight chance of snow showers in central Ohio in NW flow bringing a fetch off of Lake Michigan. With the continued NW flow/strong CAA, much below normal daytime highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. For Thursday night, chance for snow ramps up especially near/after midnight in eastern Indiana, exiting the area near/after 15z, with the prime accumulation potential time from ~06z-12z. The best area of moisture of 0.2-0.3" is expected generally across SE Indiana through the Cincinnati Tri state and eastward to the lower Scioto valley, which has shifted the probability of exceeding both 1" and 2" of snow a little further south, with prime location extending from near Richmond, IN and southeast toward Hamilton/Cincinnati Ohio and into far northern KY. This remains the prime area with the greatest probability of 2"+ of snow accumulation by 15z. Lesser chances of these thresholds occurring in Central Ohio. The system is fairly progressive, and some slight downward adjustments made from the NBM SLRs to a little closer to the WPC SLRs, generally 11-13:1 across the south, and 13-16:1 closer to I-70. The resulting snow potential will have a pretty tight gradient across the region. Another possibility/uncertainty which could cut a bit into snow totals across the south is a warm air push beginning near 12z, with temperatures rising through the mid 30s across the south in the 12-17z timeframe. So a mix with or complete changeover to rain is possible as the core area of precip is winding down/heading east. Bulk of the accumulating snowfall will shift eastward after 15z Friday, with colder/dry air funneling into the Ohio Valley for the weekend, with high confidence in these bitterly cold temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A brief period of cold and dry weather is expected from Friday night through Saturday morning before the next system arrives later on Saturday. By the second half of Saturday, an arctic front and upper level disturbance will be diving toward the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Just ahead of these features, an area of snow develops and moves across the area starting Saturday afternoon/evening before pulling east by Sunday morning. A widespread 1-3 inches are moderately likely although the heaviest axis of snow has yet to be resolved. There are also some indications that snow rates and ratios could be fairly high north of I-70 with vorticity max moving in along with the arctic boundary. Bitterly cold air settles in from Saturday night through Monday morning. Overnight lows drop into the single digits for many locations along with wind chills below zero Sunday and Monday mornings. High struggle to get out of the teens. Temperatures moderate to start next week. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Precipitation continues to change from rain-snow mix to snow this evening, especially across the Columbus area. Otherwise, temperatures continue to drop and snow chances will persist through the overnight. MVFR CIGs are now more widespread, and that is expected to remain the case for much of the TAF period. Some breaks are possible at times. In heavier snow showers, some IFR/MVFR CIGs and VIS are briefly going to occur. PROB30s have been used to provide that timing late this evening and into the early overnight. Winds remain elevated with regular gusts still in the mid to upper 20s. Occasional 30 knot gusts are also being observed. Have these winds trending downward through the overnight and into the day on Thursday. Attention shifts to the incoming clipper system Thursday evening and into the overnight. Have added mention of low CIGs/VIS and snow in the 30-hour TAF. At this time, the highest confidence for a longer duration period of snow is for CVG/LUK. The farther north, the lower the confidence. ILN/DAY should expect some snow, but there is at least some potential for CMH/LCK to remain mostly dry. Trends will continue to be monitored. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday night through Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for OHZ077>079-081-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR/McGinnis SHORT TERM...JDR/McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...McGinnis ####018008214#### FXHW60 PHFO 110103 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 303 PM HST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will bring a round of showers to Kauai tonight and Oahu early Thursday before stalling over Maui County during the day. Limited rainfall is then expected through Saturday before a stronger front brings heavy rainfall potential to the western end of the state Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Dearth of moisture over the islands this afternoon as evidenced by clear to partly cloudy skies over area waters and very dry soundings out of both Lihue and Hilo. At press time, strongly stable conditions prevail with an inversion around 5kft. Visible satellite indicates a decaying cold front advancing toward Kauai in response to a baroclinic frontal wave deepening well north of the islands. Satellite observations put upstream shower tops around 11kft which closely matches the modeled moisture depth as this shower band moves into the island chain tonight. Tonight. With the parent trough already departing to the northeast, this feature will have no upper support and will instead move into the forecast area against a background of mid-level height rises and general large scale subsidence. A few leeward showers will be possible within southerly flow ahead of the front, but the convergent frontal axis itself and trailing NW winds will serve as the focus for the bulk of rainfall which along exposed slopes late this evening (Kauai) through early tomorrow morning (Oahu). Stout NW flow will rapidly weaken as it veers to NNE during Thursday. Consequently, showers may hang up along the northern slopes of Kauai for a time, but the diminishing gradient combined with crashing post- frontal dewpoints in the 50s should inhibit potential for any stream rises there as shower intensity and coverage behind the front quickly wind down. Thursday through Saturday night. Lack of large scale forcing causes the front to stall over Maui County on Thursday while the rapidly diminishing pressure gradient allows potential for a transition from windward showers to interior showers as afternoon sea breezes develop, mainly over interior Maui. A few afternoon showers will also be possible over Oahu since the punch of dry air will struggle to push that far east. Overnight land breezes bring drying to all islands on Thursday night. The remainder of this time period will generally be dry, though moderate southerlies threaten to push the occasional shower over leeward zones of Kauai through Maui. By Saturday night, isentropic ascent associated with the approach of a much deeper upper trough will gradually saturate the mid-levels, though soundings are modeled to be initially disjointed courtesy of a stable dry layer anchored around 10kft. This will favor limited shallow leeward showers coupled with a developing layer of stratiform rain aloft, most likely centered between Kauai and Maui. Any rainfall through Saturday night is forecast to be modest. Sunday through Tuesday. This period represents a transition to a more dynamic pattern. A second remnant front, not dissimilar from the current one, will advance into the western portion of the state during Sunday providing a boost to low-level moisture and possibly allowing for some coupling with the aforementioned layer of deepening mid-level moisture by Sunday afternoon. Outstanding right entrance jet support associated with a SWly 135kt jet then spreads over the area late Sunday as the upper trough approaches. This in turn deepens the existing cold front as healthy fgen develops through the column. The resulting mature jet-front system will be accompanied by a narrow corridor of strong uplift that will support a band of heavy rain somewhere over the western end of the state Sunday night through Monday night. The parent trough remains rather progressive suggesting a 24-36 hour type of event. Upon the departure of supporting upper dynamics on Tuesday, the orphaned frontal moisture band will once again stall over the area through mid-week in maintenance of lingering showers over the area. Southerly winds prevail throughout this time keeping leeward zones in the game for rainfall for at least the next week. Forecast reasoning for the extended remains unchanged. Blocking high pressure over the Aleutian Island chain maintains a southward- displaced Pacific jet stream that is modeled by the EC, GFS, and machine learning guidance to settle into the low latitudes (20-25N) by the end of the forecast period. This ensures at least some potential for more active weather continuing for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... South to southwest winds have strengthened across the state this afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. VFR conditions will continue to prevail into the early evening hours as limited clouds and showers move in with the southerly flow. The cold front is expected to reach Kauai early this evening, Oahu early Thursday morning, and then slowly diminish over Maui County. Along the front, showers will bring periods of MVFR and even brief IFR conditions will be possible. Behind the front, light to moderate northerly winds and VFR conditions are expected. No AIRMETs are in effect, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed this evening through tomorrow morning as the front moves from west to east over the smaller islands. && .MARINE... Light south southwesterly winds will be in place this afternoon for all islands ahead of an approaching front from the northwest. The front will enter the Kauai waters late tonight and move east across the state through Thursday before stalling and dissipating around Maui County Thursday night. An increase of showers are expected along and ahead of the front with moderate northerly winds following behind it. Another stronger front looks to approach the islands from the northwest on Saturday afternoon through Sunday and bring moderate to fresh south southwesterly winds and increased rainfall over the western islands. Current guidance suggests this front could stall near Kauai and linger through next week. A moderate, long period northwest swell (320 degree) will hold before reinforcing north- northwest swell (330 degree) fills in tonight and peaks Thursday morning. These swells will keep surf elevated, therefore a High Surf Advisory for select north and west facing shores remains in effect through Thursday. These overlapping swells will slowly decline Thursday night into the weekend. Another moderate, long period northwest swell (320 degree) should gradually fill in on Sunday and could produce surf near the advisory threshold by Sunday afternoon. A combination of small north swells and small west-northwest swells then look to arrive next week. East shore surf will remain small through the forecast period due to the absence of trade winds. Expect minimal background surf for south facing shores, with a minor south- southwest pulse expected today into Thursday. South facing shores could receive small to moderate choppy windswell Saturday through next week from the southwest winds. This would depend on the location and strength of the front, likely largest for southwest shores of Kauai. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions will remain below critical fire thresholds through the week with light winds and elevated RH. The inversion will hold around 5-6kft through tomorrow. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Tsamous FIRE WEATHER...JVC ####018005054#### FXUS63 KGRB 110104 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 704 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40 to 60 percent chance of light snow on Friday. While any accumulations generally should be under an inch, a light coating of snow may result in locally slick travel. - A period of hazardous cold air will impact the area Friday night through the weekend with wind chills of 15 to 30 below zero likely at times, lowest over central Wisconsin. - Temperatures will begin to trend back towards mid-December averages by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Tonight-Friday: Cold, Light Snow Friday Low-level stratus remained prevalent along with some flurries this afternoon as colder air continues to work across the region. Broad troughing will remain anchored across the eastern US through Friday keeping our area in cold northwest flow aloft. Although colder air arrives for the weekend, the next few days will still be well below average with highs in the teens and 20s and lows mainly in the single digits on either side of zero, modulated by cloud trends. Snow with a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the northern plains on Thursday will largely skirt southwest of the area, but some flurries or light snow may graze central Wisconsin on Thursday. There is higher confidence for light snow on Friday with synoptic forcing ahead of the push of Arctic Air. NBM snow chances have increased into the 40 to 70% range on Friday, while raw global ensemble probabilities are in the 60 to 90% range. Precipitation chances often are underdone with very light precip events, such as this. Although probabilities for an inch of snow are generally low (<25%) outside of perhaps far north-central Wisconsin with some influence from Lake Superior, soundings show a deep dendritic growth zone ahead of the dry, Arctic airmass, so a light, fluffy coating of snow may occur on Friday. Saturday-Sunday: Hazardous Cold The most significant hazards and impacts through the next week will be related to a bitterly cold airmass impacting the region for a relatively short period of time over the weekend. Synoptically, a deep upper trough will settle over the Great Lakes through the weekend while strong Arctic high pressure builds south across the plains. The low-level thermal fields will crash behind the Arctic front with strong-level cold advection and gusty winds Friday night, while some low-level cold advection and wind persist into the weekend with the ridge axis passing to the west. The core of the coldest air will settle over the region on Saturday with 925 mb temperature percentiles in the 1-5th percentiles relative to climo along with a very dry, Canadian airmass. Probabilities for wind chills lower than 25 below zero are in the 50-80% range Friday night, lowest across central Wisconsin while probabilities only decrease into the 50% range across central Wisconsin during the day on Saturday. Although winds may be a bit lighter on Saturday night, it will remain bitterly cold with the higher chances (40-80%) for wind chills at least 25 below zero across central Wisconsin. Cloud trends may impact temperatures, but regardless, very cold air will impact the region this weekend. It is likely that cold weather headlines will be needed for portions of the area for some time periods Friday night through Sunday, with central Wisconsin likely to be coldest. Monday-Wednesday: Rebounding Temps This bout of cold weather will be short-lived as warm advection kicks in on the backside of the high. A more zonal flow pattern will develop through the work week ushering in a milder Pacific airmass. Although there continues to be notable spread in temps, the trend points towards more seasonable temps by the middle of next week. There is a signal for a mid-week trough/frontal passage, but no significant precipitation is expected through the first half of next week at this time. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 703 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Low clouds have broken up a bit faster than previously thought at issuance time, though some MVFR ceilings were still being observed in central and parts of north central WI. While stratus could fill back in over north central WI tonight due to northwest flow off Lake Superior, current trends are less supportive of this scenario. Otherwise, expect a gradual increase in high/mid clouds across the area on Thursday. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kts are expected tonight, and these should become light from the west to southwest Wednesday afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch