####018003603#### FXUS64 KOUN 091800 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by this weekend. - No chance for precipitation through at least Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 An unusually warm and pleasant day of weather is beginning across Oklahoma and north Texas. With a southwesterly surface wind, mostly clear skies and modest downsloped warming, temperatures this afternoon will climb into the low-70s across far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. While slightly "cooler", temperatures across central and eastern Oklahoma will still run 10-15 degrees above normal (low-60s) for early December. A weak surface front remains poised to advance southeastward across the forecast area this evening into early Wednesday, as a 90kt+ jet core dives across the Northern Plains. It still appears as though the main sensible impact with the front will be a wind shift (southwest-to-north/northeasterly direction) into Wednesday morning. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 While cooler than today, temperatures during the day on Wednesday still look to run several degrees above average (low-60s south to mid-50s north) across the area. Greater influence from an upstream ridge will be noted with time, as a deep upper system accelerates towards the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, breezy southwest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening amidst a locally notable pressure gradient. Combined with at least filtered insolation and weak downsloping, another warm December day is currently anticipated. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 NW flow is expected to continue through the weekend with another cold front moving across the area Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday with highs in the mid 40s in north central OK to around 60 in western north TX. Models show a secondary cold front moving across the area over the weekend bringing a re-enforcing shot of cool air which will lead to even cooler temperatures Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. These colder temperatures currently look short lived with highs returning to the 50s maybe low 60s early next week. Despite several cold front passages, the forecast continues to be dry into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A cold front will shift winds to the north with winds becoming gusty late tonight into Wednesday morning. The main concern is LLWS of 40 to 50 knots expected tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 42 57 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 38 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 42 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 56 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 40 55 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...01 ####018005616#### FXUS63 KILX 091801 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds gusting 40-50mph will accompany scattered rain and snow showers Wednesday morning. - A clipper system will bring a round of light snow by Thursday night into Friday morning...with the 00z LREF suggesting a 40-60% chance of greater than 1 inch of snow along and north of a Macomb to Robinson line. - Another surge of very cold air is expected by the end of the week...resulting in sub-zero apparent temperatures Friday night through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 As the pressure gradient tightens between a sprawling ridge over the E/SE CONUS and an approaching Alberta clipper, S/SW winds will increase and bring much milder air into central Illinois today. Despite the lingering snow cover, strong WAA and partial sunshine will result in afternoon high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s...with warmer readings in the middle 40s along/south of a Jacksonville to Effingham line. SW winds will continue to increase tonight, with numeric guidance and HRRR/RAP output indicating widespread gusts of 30-35mph from late evening through the overnight hours. Given the continued WAA, temperatures will slowly rise after dark...reaching the lower to middle 40s across the board by midnight. Meanwhile a band of rain showers will skirt through central Illinois as the main surface low passes well to the north across southern Wisconsin. The showers will be most numerous along/north of I-72 where 60-80 PoPs are warranted and will quickly push into Indiana before dawn Wednesday. As the low tracks further east, it will pull a cold front through the area Wednesday morning. 00z Dec 9 CAMs are showing a band of convective rain/snow-showers immediately behind the front. Given the tight pressure gradient and very strong winds aloft, the NAM/HRRR are suggesting NW wind gusts with the showers will likely reach 40-50mph. Motorists may need to keep an eye on the radar if traveling Wednesday morning, as the snow-showers will have the potential to significantly cut visibility for a time as they quickly traverse the area. The most significant showers will depart the KILX CWA by midday, with only a few lighter showers during the afternoon into the evening. Morning high temperatures will range from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River around Galesburg to the middle 40s south of I-70...with readings dropping into the lower to middle 30s everywhere by mid to late afternoon. Barnes .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Models continue to struggle with the next in a series of clipper systems slated to impact parts of the region late this week into the weekend. The 00z Dec 9 suite is beginning to hone in on the Thursday night into Friday morning time frame: however, the exact track is still in question. Have therefore kept PoPs quite low (20%) during the day Thursday, but have increased them into the 30-50% range for Thursday night. While the system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, a light accumulation of snow is likely. The 00z LREF shows a 40-60% chance of greater than 1 inch along/northeast of a Macomb...to Springfield...to Robinson line...with just a 10% chance of over 3 inches along/north of I-74. A second clipper will come into the picture by Saturday...with most guidance suggesting the highest probability of accumulating snow across Iowa into northern Illinois. Once this system exits, a bitterly cold airmass will settle into the Midwest through early next week. High temperatures will drop from the 30s on Friday into the teens for Saturday and Sunday. While wind-chill values will drop below zero across parts of the area by late Friday night, the coldest period will be Saturday night into Sunday when apparent temperatures will approach or exceed the -15F advisory criteria along/north of I-72. The extreme cold will begin to ease by Monday as boundary layer flow becomes S/SW and afternoon temperatures rise back well into the 20s and perhaps lower 30s in some spots. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A strong low pressure system in the Dakotas will track southeast across southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and into southwest Lower Michigan tonight, bringing active weather to central Illinois. Conditions will remain VFR through most or all of the overnight period, though scattered showers may impact the terminals this evening (highest chances at PIA, BMI, and CMI). Southwest winds will gust sporadically over 25 kt this evening into the overnight period, but when they will become much stronger when they switch over to a west-northwesterly direction between 09 and 12z; frequent 30-40 kt gusts are expected, with localized gusts to 50 kt with any snow showers that form along the secondary cold front during the 10-15z time frame. Those winds will veer to a north- northwesterly direction and gradually ease after roughly 16-17z, but MVFR ceilings (arriving with the cold front between 09 and 12z) should persist through the afternoon. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018003225#### FXUS64 KSHV 091801 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Cold High pressure has finally moved eastward across the MS River with southerly winds lifting in warmer air off the Gulf. - A warming trend will continue into Wednesday with another shift to NW with a dry passage of a bubble high of 1022mb. - Seasonal temps for the short term and above average 70s back in for Friday and to kick off the weekend, followed by another big 1040+ mb surface high gusting NE winds overnight into Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fog continues to improve with advisory allowed to expire at 11 a.m. Zones updated for This Afternoon, and will be issued again without discussion for Tonight at 4 p.m. /24/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 11 a.m. obs have all improved with visibility, but temps will take another hour or two at least. A mix of chilly upper 30s and lower 40s are set to add another 10 to 15 degrees for highs this mid afternoon. The cold air mass will scour slightly out our local river vallies for a warmer day on Wednesday, which should preclude much fog for low clouds instead, breaking late morning again. A range of 40s to start for most with some above average 60s for highs. However, the winds will be shifting from SW to NW again to round out the with slightly cooler readings briefly on Thursday, before resuming a move toward "room temperatures" for Friday and Saturday. Moisture return on the back side of the weak bubble high should translate into some light showers on Saturday and Saturday night before the next big cold front for Sunday. Our winds will be backing (back dooring) to NE overnight, setting us up for more clouds and eventually some light rainfall, less than a tenth per WPC days 4 & 5. Meanwhile, our high temps will tumble back to below average for the end of our long term here with more ascent over the shallow chill from a 1042mb sprawling air mass pouring down the MS River Valley, This will likely be bringing soil wetting showers back in earnest during early next week, especially if you like the ECMWF. For now, our QPF is from the WPC with expectations for around a half inch widespread in their days 6 & 7. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 45 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 40 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 36 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 43 62 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 40 61 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 46 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 44 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 44 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...53 ####018007336#### FXUS63 KGRR 091801 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 101 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick Round of Snow, Freezing Drizzle Possible This Morning - Another Round of Snow and Rain Tonight into Wednesday - Reinforcing short of Arctic Air and Snow Showers Fri-Sun && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Quick Round of Snow, Freezing Drizzle Possible This Morning A quick round of snow will move through this morning bringing around an inch of snow for most of the area with 2 to 5 inches north of Grand Haven with the highest amounts north of Muskegon. As snow tapers off freezing drizzle/light rain could develop between 8am- 1pm. This is due to moisture profile flirting with -8C temperatures. One factor that could help is dry air toward the surface with breezy winds. Soundings are not persistent in keeping the low levels saturated, however the NAM is more aggressive. If freezing drizzle/light rain develops it will be along and south of the I-96 corridor and bring with it a light glaze of ice creating slick conditions. - Another Round of Snow and Rain Tonight into Wednesday A brief break in wintry weather is expected this afternoon but it will be short lived as another clipper system swings through the region tonight into Wednesday. This low will be stronger as seen in the 250mb upper level divergence and warming temperatures along with strong warm air advection near the surface with the low level jet. Positive vorticity advection moves in around 10pm along with the better moisture. Precipitation is expected to start out as snow, but strong warm air advection on the south side of the low is expected to transition the snow to rain. We'll need to monitor surface temperatures to see if a brief period of freezing rain will occur. How far north the rain spreads will depend on the overall low track. Additionally the track will also impact snowfall amounts. A slight shift of 50 miles can make a huge difference in this set up. At this time there is higher confidence in snowfall amounts of 4 inches or more along and north of the M-20 corridor with probabilities in the 60 to 90 percent range. Therefore have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Oceana to Isabella County and northward for tonight into Wednesday afternoon. The 25th to 75th percentile highlight amounts of 3 to 7 inches in this area. If the low tracks further south the advisory may need to be extended southward. Any rain is expected to transition back to snow Wednesday morning with snow showers continuing into the afternoon. Winds will be quite breezy with this system with gusts from the southwest around 30 mph expanding from south to north overnight into Wednesday morning then shifting to the northwest behind the low late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. This will aid in reducing visibilities with the snowfall. The northwest flow off of the lake will also keep some snow shower in the area Wednesday afternoon and night, however moisture is limited so not expected much in the way of additional accumulations. - Reinforcing short of Arctic Air and Snow Showers Fri-Sun The coldest air of the season so far is showing up in some of the ensemble guidance over the weekend as another reinforcing clipper system may impact Michigan by Friday, bringing 850mb temperatures behind it into the -15C to -20C range Saturday and Sunday. This would yield high temperatures mainly in the teens to around 20F away from the lake. Upper low formation around or just north of Lake Superior is a possibility, with some vort maxes pivoting over the region which would help with synoptic lift and lake enhanced snowfall to areas along and west of US 131. This snow will likely be quite powdery and finer grain. Almost all ECE ensemble members show accumulating snow for the lakeshore region this weekend. There are a few interesting takeaways from a global teleconnections standpoint this month. The weak La Nina pattern continues, and the Madden Julian Oscillation just moved out of a strong Phase 7 and decent strength Phase 8, which correlate to colder than normal temperatures across the northern U.S. Additionally, as we ended November and moved into December, a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred which is most easily tracked via a weakening and reversal of winds at 10mb across 60N latitude. The winds did not really reverse as they do during major SSW events, but still this had the effect of weakening the polar vortex and shifting it off the pole. While we haven't gotten the full brunt of the polar vortex here in Michigan, it likely has played some sort of role in modifying the tropospheric weather pattern across our broader region. All this to say is that one of the coldest starts to December on record (top 10 for all climate sites through the first week) is attributable to some of these factors. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 MVFR dominates the pattern this afternoon with gust southeasterly winds. Winds have gusted upwards of 33kts. Expect this gusty winds to continue with a lull in the winds between 22Z to 03Z. Snow is still expected to move in from the southwest between 00Z to 03Z tonight with a transition to a rain/snow mix to rain along and south of the I-96 corridor into Wednesday morning. Freezing rain remains possible during the transitions. Snow is expected again early Wednesday morning with a transition from rain to snow. IFR cigs are expected after 00Z with ceilings improving slowly tomorrow. Ceilings will improves from the Northwest to southeast behind the front late tomorrow morning, early afternoon. Vsbys will remain MVFR and lower with periods of IFR vsbys possible with Fog/mist due to the rain/snow transition around 14Z Wednesday. LLWS is expected after 07Z until around 12Z due to the approaching front at GRR, AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Gales will taper off after sunrise with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing through the day. Strong southwest winds then move in tonight into Wednesday bringing another period of gales. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday afternoon as the strong low pressure system shifts east. Wave heights during this time are expected to be in the 7 to 12 foot range. Gales subside Wednesday evening with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely through at least Thursday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ037>040-043>046. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ844>847. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>847. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ848-849. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving/RAH AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...RAH ####018004009#### FXUS64 KMEG 091801 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Breezy and mild conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday. A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of the Midsouth on Wednesday. - Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night through Monday night. Wind chills will drop to as low as 10 degrees over northwest Tennessee and Missouri Bootheel Sunday morning. Monday morning will likely bring the coldest temperatures of the week, as calm winds settle in. - Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week, approaching near normal by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Other than breezy conditions tonight and Wednesday, benign weather will continue over the Midsouth the next few days. Arctic air remains on track for a Saturday night arrival. Little has changed in the forecast with respect to temperature trends through Friday. Southerly low level flow will likely intensify early Wednesday in advance of an upper trough dropping into the upper Midwest. A Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday, at least until the passage of a Pacific cold front Wednesday afternoon. Under continued northwest flow aloft, another cold front will drop into the Midsouth Friday night. This front will be backed by a colder airmass, primarily taking an easterly trajectory toward the Ohio River Valley. 07Z NBM MaxT are in the upper quartile range for Saturday and appear too warm, given northeasterly surface winds and broken cloud cover. Official MaxT grids for Saturday have been lowered closer to the NBM mean. Friday night's cold front will be followed by an Arctic cold frontal passage roughly 24 hours later. The core of this Arctic air isn't quite as impressive as guidance depicted several days ago, but it takes a more direct path toward the Midsouth and is backed by a 1042mb pressure ridge. Wind chills will likely dip to around 10 degrees over far northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN Sunday morning. Coldest temps are expected for Monday morning, as the surface ridge axis settles in and brings light winds. At this time, no wintry precipitation is forecast, as precipitation ends Saturday night prior to arrival of the colder air. We will need to watch for possible overlap of subfreezing temps and QPF in future guidance. Temperatures look to rebound toward the middle of next week, as an upstream ridge over the southern Great Plains lifts to the lower MS River Valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Ceilings are scattering out as of 18Z. There may be a brief period of BKN MVFR in the near term, but things are mixing out fairly quickly and VFR is expected to prevail within the next hour. The biggest impact will be wind in this forecast period. Pre-frontal gradient winds will induce some southwesterly LLWS around 50 kts starting just before midnight tonight, lasting through at least sunrise Wednesday. After the front passes (likely a dry cold front), gradient winds shift to northwesterly and remain quite elevated with gusts up to 30 kts by Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Strong southwesterly winds will continue through the middle part of the afternoon on Wednesday. These strong winds will be accompanied by minimum relative humidity 40 to 55 percent. An Arctic cold front will bring dry and cold dry conditions for the second half the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CAD ####018004611#### FXUS63 KLBF 091802 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1202 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds this afternoon of 25 to 35 mph gusting up to 55 mph mainly near and west of Highway 83. - A fast moving cold front moves through this evening, with northwest winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. The strongest winds tonight are expected near and east of a line from Valentine through Broken Bow. - Light precipitation, mainly in the form of light snow will be possible at times Wednesday night through Saturday morning. Little to no impacts are expected. - Much colder temperatures arrive Friday through Sunday with values as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Wind chill values below zero each morning, mainly across north central Nebraska. Above normal temperatures expected to return Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A strong clipper system will track from North Dakota today, into southern Minnesota this evening. This will bring strong westerly winds this afternoon from 25 to 35 mph with gusts up top 55 mph to areas mainly west of Highway 83. The GFS bufkit sounding shows the strongest winds aloft of 55 kts at 800mb. Mixing down winds as strong as this support wind gusts up to 55 mph across the western Sandhills. Very warm H85 temperatures of 10 to 13C also support mild high temperatures from the upper 50s to mid 60s (20 to 25 degrees above normal). Will see increasing mid and high clouds into the afternoon as a cold front moves into northern NE late afternoon. Tonight, a cold front will move quickly through the forecast area this evening. Windy across the west 20 to 35 mph, while very windy for areas near and east of a Valentine through Broken Bow line tonight. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. The HREF ensemble does show a 50 to 60 percent probability of gusts up to 55 mph, so will continue to monitor. A High Wind Warning is not expected this afternoon into tonight, as most gusts should range from 40 to 50 mph, with a few gust up to 55 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northwest winds quickly diminish Wednesday morning, with a weak pressure gradient and surface high pressure over the area. A glancing blow of cooler air with highs from the mid 30s far northeast zones to the upper 40s far southwest. A disturbance moving from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in northwest flow aloft to bring a slight chance for a rain/snow mix to the northwest Sandhills in the afternoon. Low chance POPs for light snow Wednesday night north central. Little accumulation expected. A strong push of warmer air into the area Thursday as surface low pressure deepens from eastern WY into western NE. Highs return to 55 to 65 across the west to the 40s northeast. A cold front moves through Thursday night with colder highs Friday from the low to mid 20s north, to 30s southwest. Just a slight chance for light snow northern NE during this time. A reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday with only teens in the northeast and 30s southwest. Confidence for even colder temperatures Saturday, as the operational ECMWF shows temperatures as cold as the single digits and teens! Still a slight chance for light snow northern Nebraska Friday night into Saturday morning. Warmer air poised to return Sunday as strong arctic high pressure moves into the Mississippi Valley. High may warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s west, with 40s to low 50s by Monday as a large upper ridge over the Rockies builds into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Strong northwest winds are expected this afternoon and tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska. Low-level wind shear will be of concern much of tonight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with broken mid and high level cloudiness. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ004-022. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ005-006-008-009-024>027-094. High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ007-010-028-029-037-038. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor ####018005908#### FXUS63 KOAX 091803 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1203 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief warmup is expected into Tuesday, with highs warming into the mid 40s to mid 50s. - Strong winds likely (80%) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with gusts 40 to 50 mph. - Snow chances late Wednesday into Thursday (20-30%), followed by a return of colder temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The upper pattern has changed very little this week and is expected to remain much the same over the next seven days. A standing wave's ridge axis has set up along the West Coast with northwest flow over the High Plains streaking toward the eastern CONUS's general trofing. At the surface, we continue to experience a wide range of temps with mid 30s across most of Nebraska and mid-20s across eastern Iowa where the warm front has yet to pass. Westerly winds of only about 5 knots are trying to scour out the arctic air in place over the Corn Belt. It's tedious work. Valley's low of 20F on Monday was set at 12:14am. It took persistent southwesterly winds and most of twenty-four hours to drive temps up to 33 degrees by 11:56pm... which was the day's zenith. The drier westerly flow should be enough to preclude widespread fog, hopefully holding it off for all but sheltered low-lying spots. Temps will continue to improve today with the a mix of sun and clouds and continued westerly flow. MaxT's should range from near 40 in the Harlan, IA area to just shy of 60 at Fairbury, NE and Jefferson County. The warm temps are usually welcomed this time of year, but they're especially appreciated with the strong winds anticipated overnight. The sun and seasonal and super- seasonal temperatures should put a nice crust on any remaining snowfall and prevent blowing and lofting of snow cover. .TONIGHT... A shortwave zipping through the quick H5 flow brings likely PoPs to Minnesota, the Dakotas, and parts of central and eastern Iowa. Biggest impacts for this forecast area will be associated with the attendant cold front. NBM continues to struggle with the wind speeds. Believe the CAA associated with the front won't have trouble busting up the progged shallow inversion and should mix to almost 5kft. Mean values of momentum transfer suggest gust speeds of 50 mph in northeast Nebraska with some guidance pushing well over 60 mph. In collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued wind advisory from 9pm tonight to 9am Wednesday morning. Considered a high wind warning in far northeast Nebraska, but it is borderline. Wouldn't be surprised to see the day shift upgrade that advisory when we see the whites of the wind's eyes. The advisory may be a bit too long as confidence is best in the heart of the period when the CAA is maximized and the shortwave axis passes through the area. I woulnd't be surprised if the winds tapered quickly Wednesday morning with the redevelopment of the surface temp inversion. This could happen before the sun comes up... ending those winds 'prematurely'. Have also added a 10-15% chance of post-frontal sprinkles this evening. They won't last long enough to see them turn to snow. Eventually, though, we will fall into the twenties and low 30s. .THE REST OF THE WEEK... Temps will be notably cooler on Wednesday (30s) under the continued northwesterly upper (and surface) flow. A 20-30% chance of snow develops Wednesday night with the area in a baroclinic zone and warm air trying to make inroads from the west. Fewer ensemble members have been bringing snow this far south with the past two global model runs. (PoPs peak in the 30%s now instead of the 40%s). Current guidance keeps this upper pattern mostly unchanged through the work week with occasionally sharp temperature gradients draped directly across eastern Nebraska or at least within an afternoon's drive. This pattern leaves the forecast with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. An undetected wiggle in the jet stream or a stronger lee cyclone, etc could have a 20 degree impact. The area could be subject to snow on any of these days with this baroclinicity in the vicinity. Let's hope this pattern resolves itself in a clearer way. Nobody likes an ambiguous forecast. Right now, snow chances look best (15-25%) over the northern tier of counties on Wednesday night and Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. There is a 30-40% chance that MVFR ceilings will move into the KOMA area Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles are possible (10-15% chance) this afternoon into evening, but nothing heavy enough to affect visibilities. The primary aviation impact this period is strong northwest winds that will develop tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusts up to 40-50 kt appear likely (greater than 70% chance of occurrence), mainly in the 10/06z-10/13z timeframe. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ033-034-042>045-050>053. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ065>068-078-088>093. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>032. IA...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ043-055-056-069. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Mead ####018002185#### FXUS63 KICT 091804 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1204 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably mild temperatures return on Wednesday with another unseasonably mild day expected on Thursday. - Another shot of cold air will arrive on Friday, with a reinforcing surge of cold air over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A shortwave trough moving over the Upper Mississippi Valley area this evening will help drive a cold front south over the Central Plains tonight. This front will usher more seasonable air on Wednesday although values are still expected to be above average for mid December with highs topping out in the lower 50s for most areas. As high pressure at the surface builds south and east over the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley area on Thursday, southwest low level flow will return to the Central Plains. This will allow above average temperatures to return over the area with highs climbing into the 60s once again. A progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime is progged to persist with another fropa anticipated on Friday. This front will pack a bigger punch with seasonably cool temperatures on Fri-Sat (40s) although as the cold air continues to settle over the area this weekend, values may struggle to rise above freezing in some areas as we move into Sunday. Dry weather conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week although temperatures are expected to moderate as we move into Mon-Tue with above average values returning to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A cold front will arrive tonight allowing winds to the veer to the northwest. Meanwhile, a developing LLJ will also result in low level wind shear after 04-05Z. The LLWS will persist into the early morning hours on Wed while VFR prevails through the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM