####018005072#### FXUS63 KTOP 241116 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One final day of quiet weather today before storm chances increase late tonight into Thursday. - Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible beginning Thursday morning. Highest chances for severe weather are on Friday afternoon/evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Weak northwesterly flow observed this morning, with the mid level jet streaming from the western high plains into NE and KS this morning. Weak isentropic ascent has resulted in elevated showers and isolated thunder this morning across central Kansas. Cannot rule out an isolated shower this afternoon over northeast Kansas, but given the high cloud bases (around 12 kft), do not expect much of any QPF today. Highs today are slightly cooler in the lower 70s underneath light winds and high pressure in place. As a southern stream upper trough enters the southwest CONUS tonight, upstream height falls enter into the panhandles amidst increasing southerly flow and warm advection across the state. CAMs are consistent between current and previous runs of widespread showers and thunderstorms developing after 12Z, spreading south and east through northeast Kansas in the morning to early afternoon periods. MUCAPE initially less than 500 J/KG wil continue to improve in upwards of 1500 J/KG by the afternoon while effective shear is favorable around 50 kts. While most of the morning convection should not be severe, we may see isolated stronger updrafts capable of hail to quarter size and damaging wind gusts. With models signaling that the rain and low cloud cover will linger through much of the day, opted to continue lowering highs Thursday, down to the mid and upper 60s. Confidence is low in additional convection impacting the CWA Thursday evening, given the slower trend of the upper trough axis and subsequent position of the dryline towards western Kansas at 00Z Friday. If storms develop in this area in the evening, there is a low possibility that they could impact portions of north central Kansas overnight before dissipating quickly as they enter a more stable environment towards eastern Kansas. By Friday afternoon, concern for more widespread severe weather grows as the the dryline edges into eastern Kansas. Operational mid term guidance is somewhat varied on the upper trough position and track of the system as it lifts into southern NE and western IA by 00Z Sat. There is a good signal for an EML throughout the afternoon while sfc CAPE builds in upwards of 3000 J/KG. Models however still struggle with initiation in the CWA as the better height falls either occur earlier in the day or remain well to our north, overall limiting severe potential. However, given the forecast soundings and long, low level curvature on the hodographs by 21Z...if storms are able to form, they will be severe with all hazards possible, including tornadoes. These storms shift off to the east later in the evening, bringing an end to this round of convection. On another note, a wind advisory will likely be needed Friday afternoon as NBM spread is pretty small in the afternoon with south winds from 25 to 35 mph sustained, gusting to 50 mph. On Saturday the next upper shortwave trough enters the region while a sfc low quickly deepens over western CO, enhancing the warm, moist advection into the CWA. Guidance is persistent in developing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Minimal inhibition and SFC based CAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG suggest the possibility for embedded supercells to form. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes remain on the table for potential hazards with the strongest updrafts. It's also important to note that locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out given the deep moisture within the atmospheric column and PWATs up to 1.6 inches. Any localized flooding however will be dependent upon the amount of rainfall that we receive Thursday and Friday. The system quickly exits the area by Sunday as upper ridge builds east, bringing quieter conditions next week. Temperatures remain mild or slightly above average in the low 80s while overnight lows are mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR at terminals as light and VRB winds veer to the east around 5-8 kts this afternoon. Mid clouds are expected to increase and gradually lower below 10 kft this evening as the next system enters the region. Chances for TSRA increase near or shortly after 12Z Thursday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto ####018007934#### FXUS64 KEPZ 241117 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 517 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Strong winds and blowing dust are likely on Thursday as a low pressure system passes by. The strongest winds will occur during the afternoon across portions of south central New Mexico. Breezy to windy conditions will continue through Saturday before quiet weather returns Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Pacific low pressure system currently off the coast of southern California will drive our spring-like weather pattern over the next few days. Quiet and persistent conditions again today with lowland highs in the upper 80s and southwest winds 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon. Only difference from yesterday will be the increase in high cloud coverage as a band of subtropical moisture moves in from baja. Skies will be mostly overcast this afternoon, which may stagnate temperatures a degree or two. Upper trough progresses over the southern Rockies on Thursday, leading to windy conditions area wide. 500 mb jet streak around 80 knots will cross directly over El Paso mid-afternoon Thursday, with deep boundary layer mixing to 600 mb. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis producing a 987mb low in eastern Colorado will extend a strong surface trough southward across New Mexico and far west Texas. Trough axis passage is timed well with peak mixing, especially right up the US-54 corridor from El Paso up to Tucumcari. Model guidance has increased winds slightly in the past 48 hours. West-southwest winds with sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with peak gusts around 50 mph will be most common across the New Mexico and Texas lowlands. Mountain ridges and east slopes will see slightly higher gusts. Thus, Wind Advisories have been issued for much of the area excluding far western New Mexico (near the Arizona state line where winds will likely be weaker). High Wind Warnings are out for the Sacramento Mtns and San Andres east slope zones, including Cloudcroft, Mayhill, and WSMR. These are the locations most likely to see gusts exceed 60 mph, sometime midday Thursday. Blowing dust and extreme fire danger are also considerations for Thursday afternoon. Very dry conditions will be conducive of high fire danger and dust sources in northern Chihuahua are likely to respond by the noon time hour. Reductions in visibility will be possible all afternoon, especially along the International Border and just east of White Sands. Friday looks to be a lull in the winds, remaining breezy but likely not needing any headlines. Secondary lobe within the prevailing trough pattern across the Western US will reach us on Saturday, leading to more windy conditions and possible blowing dust during the daytime hours. Winds expected to finally settle down Sunday into next week as the polar jet streak shifts northward. No major weather concerns early next week. Continued dry conditions with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees in El Paso again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of the dryline again midweek, but right now any storm chances look to be confined to our east. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VMC through forecast period with dry conditions and increasing southwest flow aloft. Light west flow this morning, picking up slightly this afternoon 230-250 at 08-14 knots with peak gusts to 25 knots across southwest NM. Band of high moisture moving into the region SCT-BKN170 throughout the day, clearing early Thursday morning. Strong winds expected Thursday afternoon along with blowing dust impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Elevated conditions today with warm temperatures and dry air area wide. Min RH 8-15%. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph leading to Very Good smoke ventilation this afternoon. Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected on Thursday, perhaps the most severe of this season so far. Similar low humidity conditions will combine with much stronger west-southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph across much of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. ERCs showing dry and primed fuel conditions across the lowlands, with fuel moisture closer to normal over the high terrain. Red Flag conditions beginning around the noon time hour and continuing to sunset on Thursday, with rapid fire behavior possible in regions of high grassland, brush, or forest coverage. Critical fire conditions are expected to linger into Friday and Saturday afternoons, with subsequent Red Flags being issued for portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas in the coming forecast packages. Thursday certainly looks to be the most severe, with Friday/Saturday being more borderline with winds reaching critical thresholds. Winds subside Sunday into next week, with continued dry weather. No precipitation expected the rest of the month. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 65 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 56 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 88 59 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 85 58 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 45 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 84 55 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 76 49 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 86 55 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 52 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 86 64 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 53 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 90 56 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 80 58 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 60 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 85 60 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 86 63 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 84 55 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 86 56 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 86 60 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 56 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 50 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 50 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 46 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 76 48 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 82 53 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 84 53 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 76 45 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 79 46 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 81 50 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 77 48 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 79 50 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 84 53 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 84 55 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 53 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 77 50 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411- 414-417-426-428-429. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416- 427. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt ####018005486#### FXUS63 KSGF 241117 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog and ground fog early this morning...especially along area lakes and rivers. - Showers and some storms return late today into Thursday. - Risk of severe storms Friday through Sunday night. - Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will accompany the active weather period this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper trough axis over the Ohio valley with a ridge axis over the Rockies into the high plains and an upper low circulation in the Pacific off the California coast. Our area was located in between the trough axis and the upper ridge axis with a northwest flow over the region. This has brought a cold front through the area on Tuesday into Tuesday evening with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. There was a light and variable wind behind the front with some boundary level moisture still remaining which was causing some fog and ground fog, especially along with area rivers and lakes which can be seen nicely with the nighttime microphysics GOES channel. Not widespread enough for a dense fog advisory at this time but will continue to mention the potential for fog, especially in our eastern CWA this morning. Today: Surface high pressure will continue to drift off to the east with mainly an easterly flow over the area at the surface. The front will hang up over Arkansas with the main low level moisture axis to our southwest. Any fog should burn off this morning and we should see highs return to the lower to middle 70s with some mid and upper level cloud cover. Precipitation should remain to our south and west through the day. Tonight into Thursday: A low level jet will set up over the plains tonight in advance of a developing area of low pressure in the high plains. Eastern edges of showers with some embedded thunderstorms should make it into our western CWA during the night. Upper level energy will move into the area on Thursday with the moisture axis shifting into the area (PW values 1.2" to 1.5"). Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread over the area during the day Thursday. The best instability will remain to our west so we are not expecting any severe weather through Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Severe weather, heavy rain and flooding chances Friday through the Weekend: The upper trough should move into the high plains Thursday night into Friday with upper divergence increasing over the area. Very strong low level winds with 850 mb jet of 40-50 kts over the area by Friday morning. Instability will begin to shift eastward into the area on Friday with 1000-1500 j/kg sfc based CAPE values in the western CWA during the day on Friday and 35-60 kts of 0-6km shear. Will start to see our severe weather probabilities increase on Friday. The first upper level low will lift negatively tilted to the northeast into Nebraska by 00z Sat. While the first wave of showers and thunderstorms may end Friday night into Saturday morning, the next wave will begin to lift northeast into the plains late in the day Saturday with additional convection likely developing over the west late Saturday into Saturday night. Sufficient shear and instability will be available as this next wave of convection pushes through Saturday night into Sunday night for another round of severe weather. The main upper level low and surface low will remain north of the area, but a strong cold front will push through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Because of the higher PW values and likely training of storms across the same locations, we will have increased risk of excessive rainfall and flooding across the area this weekend. The main trough axis should push through the area on Monday with mainly dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer than normal conditions are expected with an upper ridge axis over the area and the northern stream jet well to the north of the area. Highs should be in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Some light fog might start out the 12z TAFS, but should rapidly dissipate thereafter. Some mid and high clouds will move in from the west today with an easterly wind developing on the back of a high pressure system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over far western portions of the area overnight and may affect the JLN TAF after 06z. For now will go with VFR conditions outside of any convection with some MVFR at JLN within the prob30 group late tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 26: KSGF: 66/2016 April 27: KSGF: 67/1899 April 28: KSGF: 68/1896 Record Precipitation: April 28: KSGF: 2.19/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Camden ####018004932#### FXUS66 KEKA 241119 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 419 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry weather is expected today with a few showers possible over the interior. A cold front will bring below normal temperatures, widespread rain, and high mountain snow to the area Thursday and into Friday. Additional showers and below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough and associated cold front is dropping down from the north towards the area. The upper level low that brought thunderstorms to the interior yesterday is continuing to drop south and weaken. This may still bring a few showers to the interior this afternoon, but instability is weaker and lapse rates aloft are not as steep. This should limit the threat for thunderstorms. This morning there is also widespread stratus across the coastal areas and near coastal areas. The marine layer is over 3,000 feet deep and therefor cloud bases are higher and there isn't much fog around this morning. Tonight widespread clouds are expected to spread across the area as a cold front approaches the area. Rain is expected to start in Del Norte county Thursday morning and spread south later in the morning and afternoon. The front is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves south. Thursday Del Norte county is expected to see amounts ranging from 0.5 to 0.75 while Humboldt is expected to see around a half inch near Orick to only a tenth of inch in Garberville. This is expected to come mainly in a few hours of steady rain in the morning and early afternoon as it moves south. Farther south and east in Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties less than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected. Thursday is expected to see cool temperatures with highs in the 50s in most valleys although southern Mendocino and Lake counties may see mid 60s. Behind the main front Thursday afternoon through Friday showers are expected to linger and additional rainfall is expected. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light again with amounts ranging from a half inch in Del Norte county to less than a tenth of an inch in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Thursday night widespread cloud cover should keep low temperatures mainly in the 40s, although the mountains could see temperatures drop into the 30s. Friday high temperatures are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s again. For the weekend and into early next week nearly zonal flow will keep temperatures below normal and a mix of sun and clouds. The models are showing some shortwaves moving through the flow and this may bring occasional light rain. At this point it looks like any rain will be light, but it is possible there could be a stronger shortwave that brings some moderate rain. Temperatures will be rebound slightly, but will generally remain in the 60s. Any nights that do manage to clear out will likely see near freezing or freezing temperatures. At this point Tuesday morning looks like the coldest morning, but this will depend a lot on how much cloud cover there is. MKK && .AVIATION...A very deep marine layer has allowed CIGS to lift to nearly 3000 feet at many locations including all three TAF sites. These may drop slightly this morning, but will likely remain in the MVFR category. The cooler air aloft has weakened the marine inversion and this may allow skies to mix out this afternoon. This evening and tonight CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR or possible IFR conditions mainly in Humboldt and Del Norte counties as a cold front moves over the area. It is uncertain if these low clouds will make it down to Ukiah. MKK && .MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through Thursday. A series of mild cold fronts will lightly enhance winds, though gusts are forecasted to be moderate at best with 20 kt gusts restricted right around Cape Mendocino. Such winds will most likely not be strong enough to build short period seas to 6 feet. Though short period seas will dominate the sea state through the week, a series of persistent, mid period northwest swells up to 5 feet will generally compliment the northerly wind waves. Friday morning shows signs of more chaotic seas returning as strong north winds return, maxing out south of Cape Mendocino. DS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png