####018006046#### FXUS62 KMFL 091805 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Hazardous boating conditions expected today as winds surge behind the frontal passages. - Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms could develop this afternoon across southeast Florida and the Atlantic waters. - Drier conditions return on Thursday. .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 A stalled cold front over the Florida Straits will continue to influence conditions across the region over the next couple of days. While northerly flow behind the boundary will usher in a noticeable cooler and drier airmass aloft today, lingering low-level moisture and modest instability over the local waters and southeast FL will support periods of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Coverage should remain generally isolated to scattered in nature, and focused over the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. Given the drier air aloft, any convection that develops is expected to remain low-topped and weak. Temperatures will remain comfortable through the period, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s, and overnight lows dropping to the upper 50s across the interior and down to the mid 60s along the coasts. Comfortable temperatures will also be likely on Tuesday, with highs topping off in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 A stalled cold front over the Florida Straits will continue to influence conditions across the region over the next couple of days. While northerly flow behind the boundary will usher in a noticeable cooler and drier airmass aloft today, lingering low-level moisture and modest instability over the local waters and southeast FL will support periods of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Coverage should remain generally isolated to scattered in nature, and focused over the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro. Given the drier air aloft, any convection that develops is expected to remain low-topped and weak. Temperatures will remain comfortable through the period, with afternoon highs in the low-mid 70s, and overnight lows dropping to the upper 50s across the interior and down to the mid 60s along the coasts. Comfortable temperatures will also be likely on Tuesday, with highs topping off in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 A reinforcing dry cold front is forecast to sweep south across the area on Thursday, finally pushing the stationary front over the FL Straits south, and driving another surge of dry air across the region. This dry front corresponds to a faster and weaker solution that ensemble guidance has begun to lock onto for the late-week upper trough moving across the Eastern US. This will result in generally quiet and seasonable weather through the end of the work week and into the first half of the weekend. Expect highs each day in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s over the interior, and mid 60s along the coasts. Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease late in the weekend and into next week. Some ensemble members hint at a developing upper- level disturbance over the Gulf that could slide eastward over the peninsula, potentially increasing moisture along the column and leading to a slight uptick in rain chances. While uncertainty remains regarding timing and intensity, went with the prevailing NBM guidance for the end of the period, with PoPs in the 20-30% range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period, although some bouts of MVFR ceilings are possible, particularly Wednesday morning. A few isolated showers could move across the east coast, but confidence remains low regarding any potential impacts to terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northerly winds between 15-20 kts will prevail across all local waters today, resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will also build today, reaching the 7-9 ft range across the Atlantic waters, and 3-5 ft range across the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening. Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Wednesday as winds relax. A few thunderstorms could be likely over the Atlantic waters today and on Wednesday, with locally higher winds and seas possible. && .BEACHES... Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 High risk of rip currents will be possible for all East Coast beaches today as breezy winds and swell develop across the local atlantic waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 68 79 57 75 / 30 10 0 0 West Kendall 65 82 54 77 / 30 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 67 81 56 77 / 30 10 0 0 Homestead 67 82 57 77 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 79 57 74 / 30 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 79 57 74 / 30 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 67 82 56 77 / 30 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 79 55 74 / 20 10 0 0 Boca Raton 67 80 56 76 / 30 10 0 0 Naples 62 76 57 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...99 ####018003341#### FXUS64 KMRX 091806 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 106 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold front late Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible behind the system Thursday. - Colder morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend and early next week possibly dropping into the low 20's or teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Currently the sky is clear and blue for most of the eastern Tennessee Valley as, go check it out if you haven't seen it recently. We're expecting to see some breaks from the clouds today and, to some extent, tomorrow with southerly surface winds and higher pressure we'll see temperatures warmer than we've seen for several days, back into the 50's for many on Wednesday. These temperatures won't last for very long as our next system will move into the region heading into Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region and drags along with it a cold front into the southeast US. Precipitation with this system looks to move in late Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a very classic northwest flow set up. We'll likely see light rain in the valley at times, with temperatures cold enough that the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the east Tennessee Mountains pick up snow... Especially the northwest facing sides. Currently have the snow mostly falling between 00z Thursday through 12z Thursday, but we could see the peaks of the mountains get flurries throughout Thursday. Expect snow accumulations to remain mainly above 2,500 feet, with the peaks of the mountains topping out around the 2-4 inch mark. Eventually behind the precipitation upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Things get a bit murkier at the end of the weekend and next week due to potential southern and northern stream systems merging, but the one thing models agree on is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Coldest temperatures of the forecast (and season so far) will likely occur Monday morning with low 20's across the southern Valley and dipping into the teens in southwest Virginia. Kids will want to bundle up for the bus ride to school Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 SCT clouds expected to linger in the are the rest of the day. Biggest impacts will likely be from the low level jet increasing overnight, so have included LLWS in the TAFs during the peak strength. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 35 56 29 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 36 52 30 / 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 46 35 52 29 / 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 48 28 / 0 0 40 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 ####018008902#### FXUS62 KJAX 091806 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 106 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Overnight & Early Wednesday Morning. Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost Advisory Areas: Portions of Coastal Southeast GA and Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread Frost Expected in the Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas. - Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Offshore Waters on Wednesday Night. - Light Freeze and Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thursday Night. - High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches This Afternoon. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... MVFR ceilings will prevail through around 20Z at VQQ, JAX, and SGJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 04Z tonight. Fog and low stratus ceilings will likely develop at VQQ towards 05Z, with LIFR conditions expected overnight through around sunrise on Wednesday. Fog may expand to the JAX and CRG terminals after 08Z, but confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR visibilities through around 13Z at this time. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals before 14Z Wednesday. Breezy northeasterly surface winds, sustained at 10-15 knots, will prevail at the regional terminals through around 22Z. Surface winds will then shift to north northwesterly overnight while gradually diminishing, followed by westerly surface winds developing by 14Z and then increasing to around 10 knots towards 17Z Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1027 millibars) centered over the Delmarva peninsula and extending its axis southwestward across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...broad troughing remains in place across the eastern half of the nation, with a moisture-starved shortwave embedded within this longwave trough currently traversing the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys. Surface ridging wedging down the southeastern seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over our near shore Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low stratus clouds southwestward across southeast GA and portions of northeast FL this morning. Fair skies prevail elsewhere across most of the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. The seasonably low sun angle was only allowing for a slow erosion of this stratus deck, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover being generated by weak coastal troughing also advecting onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures beneath the stratus deck were still in the lower to mid 40s across inland southeast GA as of 16Z, with upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere inland. Breezy onshore winds have kept temperatures in the 50s at coastal locations, with plenty of sunshine allowing values to climb to 55-60 across north central FL. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 30s across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 40s elsewhere. High pressure centered to the north of our region will slowly weaken this afternoon as it continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. This feature will keep a tight local pressure gradient in place along the I-95 corridor through mid-afternoon, keeping breezy north-northeasterly winds in place at coastal locations. The low stratus deck extending from inland southeast GA to portions of inland northeast FL will gradually lift and erode, with marine stratocumulus continuing to advect onshore over the coastal counties and southern portions of the St. Johns River basin this afternoon. Highs will only reach the low and mid 50s this afternoon across southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and northeast FL, ranging to the lower 60s across north central FL. High pressure will continue to weaken and will settle directly over our area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland locations. A light freeze is expected across inland southeast GA, with frost extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and along the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL. Frost advisories have been issued for these locations, with a freeze warning maintained for all of inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Weakening coastal troughing over our local waters will likely maintain a weak northwesterly breeze along the I-95 corridor, keeping lows in the 40s at coastal locations in northeast FL as well as for most of north central FL. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure overhead Wednesday, and a weak cold front moving through the area by Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny skies and westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s for inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not quite cold enough for frost. Thursday will be cooler after the frontal passage, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland southeast Georgia, to mid 60s for north central Florida with northwest winds continuing to bring in cooler and drier air. Lows Thursday night will flirt with touching freezing in southeast Georgia, with patchy frost likely. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front moving through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s again Friday, before a nice warmup this weekend. Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the low 70s for southeast Georgia and mid to upper 70s for northeast Florida with mostly sunny skies. Monday will be much cooler following the dry cold frontal passage on Sunday, leaving temperatures in the 50s for southeast Georgia and 60s for northeast Florida with breezy northeasterly winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the mid 30s over inland southeast Georgia, but likely too windy overnight for frost formation at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure centered near the Delmarva region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through this afternoon, creating breezy north northeasterly winds and elevated seas across our local waters. This high pressure center will weaken as it shifts southward over our local waters tonight and Wednesday morning, allowing for winds to briefly subside. Westerly winds will then strengthen on Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry frontal boundary, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible offshore on Wednesday night. This front will cross our region late Wednesday night, followed by another high pressure center building over our region on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday afternoon and evening. Rip Currents: Southeast GA: Moderate through Wednesday. Northeast FL: High this Afternoon, Moderate on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds will shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good dispersion forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into the 30s, with values improving this weekend. Light and variable winds Friday will leave poor dispersion with patchy low values near north central FL and the Atlantic coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 29 61 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 39 64 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 37 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 47 68 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 39 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 44 68 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-120-220-322-422-522. High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018003912#### FXUS64 KCRP 091807 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1207 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Warming trend through the week ahead of the next cold front. - Dense morning fog expected by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Stable conditions will prevail through much of of the work week, with little change from the previous forecast cycle. A weak front and a reinforcing surge of high pressure are forecast to slide across the region late Wednesday into Thursday, though its local influence will be limited to an onshore wind shift and a brief hindrance to warming temperatures. Given the very limited available moisture, no precipitation is expected with the boundary. Moisture return increases late in the week as the aforementioned surface high shifts east and southerly surface flow strengthens. As humidity increases, highs will moderate out into upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows trending milder beginning Thursday night, rising to the mid-50s to low 60s. The uptick in boundary layer moisture may also promote fog development beginning early tomorrow morning and continuing through late week. By this weekend, attention turns to our next cold front, through model guidance continues to differ slightly regarding timing and strength. Timing has shifted later in the forecast period to late Sunday into early Monday. Nonetheless, the weekend into early next week appears to be the next meaningful opportunity for rain, with low chances (20-30%) for coastal showers as early as Friday night into Saturday and broader chances (20-50%) increasing into late weekend or early next week depending on the frontal progression and moisture return. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of this forecast period. South-southwesterly winds will remain below 10 knots under clear skies. Probabilities of fog developing over the inland Coastal Plains and portions of the southern Brush Country have increased this cycle, primarily impacting VCT/ALI/LRD from 10-14Z Wednesday morning. Included TEMPO groups this forecast to denote this. && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Onshore flow returns this afternoon, remaining at gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) levels through late week. There is a low chance for patchy sea fog overnight tonight before a disturbance moves through late Wednesday. A better potential for sea fog may come over the weekend ahead of the next front. Confidence remains low at this time. A low to medium chance (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the aforementioned weekend front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% through Wednesday across portions of the Brush Country. However, due to generally low ERCs in the 50-70th percentile and weak winds of 5-10 mph, elevated fire weather conditions remain negligible at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 51 77 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 46 76 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 51 80 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 47 79 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 55 73 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 45 79 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 49 80 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 59 73 59 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...KRS/98 ####018010838#### FXUS63 KDLH 091807 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1207 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow and freezing drizzle will taper off this morning. - The next clipper will arrive late this morning through the afternoon and will bring heavy snow to areas generally south of US-2. - Winter Weather Headlines were extended north in Minnesota and the Winter Storm Warning in NW WI was expanded. End times from the I-35 corridor east were extended. - A period of several hours of heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour is expected late this afternoon through this evening. - Freezing drizzle may follow the snow early Wednesday morning. - Cold temperatures and additional chances of precipitation are expected later this week into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 SUMMARY OF HEADLINE CHANGES - Winter Weather Advisory for portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota remains in effect until 6 AM today. - Winter Weather Advisory for this afternoon and tonight was adjusted north to include Itasca, central St. Louis, and southern Lake county areas. - Winter Storm Warning was expanded north in northeast Minnesota to include northern Cass, northern Aitkin, Carlton/South St. Louis counties. - Winter Storm Warning timing for Pine and Carlton/South St. Louis counties was adjusted. Starts at 20Z today and ends at 12Z Wednesday. - Winter Storm Warning for Burnett County was extended until 15Z Wednesday. - Winter Storm Warning in northwest Wisconsin was expanded to include Douglas, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties. Time was extended to 15Z Wednesday. - Winter Weather Advisory for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties was extended to 18Z Wednesday. ---------- The first of two clippers is departing the Northland this morning. As the higher altitude clouds depart, the lower altitude liquid droplet clouds remain. Therefore freezing drizzle has been observed after snow ended across much of the Northland. GOES-East night microphysics product reveals clear skies northeast of a line from near International Falls to near Two Harbors. Another area of low stratus was moving southeastward toward the Arrowhead and may provide another burst of freezing drizzle. Minor ice accumulations are possible from the freezing drizzle which may make roads, sidewalks, bridges, and elevated surfaces slippery. Otherwise look for conditions to improve for a time this morning before the second clipper arrives. The big story with this forecast package is the second clipper system which will arrive from the west this afternoon and tonight. The system is fast moving with complicated dynamics and abundant moisture available from an atmospheric river which is impacting the Pacific Northwest. This forecast is definitely not easy and has a high potential to bust both to the low side of forecast snow amounts north of US-2 and to the high side south of US-2. The NAM solution is farther north today than yesterday morning while the global models have come into better alignment. Thaler QG omega is quite strong from all the models with an area of 20 to 30 mb/hr ascent this afternoon and tonight. Frontogenesis will be aligned generally along the same axis. NAM and GFS cross sections reveal an area of 8 to 12 microbar per second omega co-located with the strongest FGEN and ample moisture. Very efficient snow crystal growth is expected where those parameters intersect. Look for several hours of 0.5 to 1.5 inch per hour snow rates generally near and south of US-2. Those rates should move across central Minnesota between 3 and 6 pm and over northwest Wisconsin between 6 and 10 pm. On the other hand, the global models are bringing in strong dry air advection on the north side of the low track which will likely eat into snow totals. The greatest impact to snow totals should be north of the zone of strongest ascent, mainly along and north of US-2. Snow amounts in those areas may end up several inches too high if there's enough dry air to limit snowfall to only a few hours. Grand Rapids to Duluth are right in the zone where there may be a tight gradient in snow amounts. If the strongest forcing develops just a little farther south (20 to 40 miles) the higher snow amounts will be in MPX's area. High-res CAMs are pointing to a convergent band of snow developing over the western arm of Lake Superior early Wednesday morning. The convergence is subtle. As we saw this morning and a few weeks ago, the CAMs do an OK job catching onto these narrow and usually transient bands of convergence and subsequent snowfall. The consensus is for the band of snow to impact the Twin Ports from around 2 am until 4 or 5 am Wednesday. That would be after the main synoptic snow had ended. The additional snow accumulation from that band has the potential to boost the event snow totals at Duluth. The convergent band will continue to sweep southeastward during the morning adding to snow totals in northwest Wisconsin. Lake-effect snow may develop as winds turn northwesterly Wednesday morning which would allow light snow to persist over Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties through the morning. There is also a potential to see a period of freezing drizzle Wednesday morning as the upper-level moisture advects east faster than the low-level moisture, a scenario similar to this morning. If the freezing drizzle develops and persists, headlines may need additional extensions tomorrow morning. In the end snow amounts have ticked up a little bit with this forecast. We now have a swath of 5-7 inches from Cass County to Price County. For the Twin Ports, Cloquet and areas south along I-35 have the greatest potential for higher end amounts. Duluth may only see 4-6 inches. There are some challenges in where the enhanced upward vertical motion will develop. One of the models keeps Duluth largely out of the snow! We extended the headlines for this afternoon and Wednesday north one tier of counties in Minnesota and extended the Winter Storm Warning east into Wisconsin. Since Ashland, Bayfield, and Iron counties have higher snow thresholds for a warning, we left them in an advisory. We also added a few hours to the Carlton/South St. Louis, Pine, Burnett warning. The I-35 corridor is now until 6 AM Wednesday and Burnett is 15Z along with the rest of the NW WI counties in the warning. We extended the Advisory for NW WI until 18Z to account for additional light snow and lake effect Wednesday morning. Attention then turns to the latter portion of the week. Another clipper is forecast to pass to our south Thursday and early Friday. The passage of that low pressure system will reinvigorate the cold air advection over the Northland for Friday into the weekend. By Saturday we may see highs straddling zero. Cold weather headlines may be needed later this week into the weekend. The cold air will bring another chance of light snow Friday. The clipper parade persists into next week with another shot of snow Sunday night and Monday. Some models are indicating a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday which would see temps above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A strong clipper will impact the Northland beginning this afternoon with snowfall arriving at BRD by 20Z, and spreading eastward through the late afternoon/early evening. For the next few hours, light flurries are possible, mainly where cigs are below 1kft with winds gradually increasing from the east to southeast. Some fluctuation in cigs are possible before the arrival of snow, with a mix of VFR down to IFR heights. Heaviest snowfall is expected in a band, south of US-2, mainly impacting BRD to south of HYR. At times, snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr are possible, reducing vis to less than 1 mile. Outside of this heavy snow band, snow chances reduce from south to north, with no mentionable snow chances at INL. Cigs will settle to MVFR at most terminals through the afternoon, and falling to IFR tonight at BRD, DLH, and HYR. Breezy easterly winds will back to the northeast as the surface low moves to our south, with gusts of 22-28kts, and back further to the north early Wednesday morning. Snowfall will end early Wednesday morning, with gusty north winds continuing through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 428 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back northeasterly and strengthen Tuesday evening and will become hazardous for small craft once again. Gales of 35 to 40 knots are forecast from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where a Gale Warning is in effect. Small Craft Advisories go into effect at 10 pm tonight for the remainder of the waters. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. Waves will build to 3 to 10 feet over the southwest arm and along the waters of the South Shore. As the clipper departs on Wednesday winds will back northwesterly and diminish. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the North Shore from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Cold air moving over the high terrain will likely lead to katabatic winds from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Wind and waves will then relax for Thursday before increasing again on Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ018>020-026. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025- 033>036. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ037-038. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-142>148-150. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140-141. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...HA MARINE...Huyck ####018008362#### FXUS61 KOKX 091808 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 108 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the area this morning shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the north tonight. A stronger low approaching on Wednesday will pass to the north and send a cold front through the area Wednesday night. High pressure will then build southeast from the northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon. A series of clipper lows will pass close by Friday night into Saturday night. An Arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * Warmer today, but still around 10 degrees below normal. * A slight chance (20 percent) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast Connecticut and eastern LI tonight. Any precipitation will be brief. No accumulation expected. Weakening high pressure slides across the area this morning and then offshore this afternoon. A weakening clipper low over the Great Lakes today will pass well north of the area tonight. Weak warm advection ahead of the system and limited moisture will combine for a slight chance (20%) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast CT and eastern LI. While warmer today, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 20s inland to the lower and and mid 30s along the coast. The highest temperatures will likely come this evening into the overnight with a strengthening southerly flow between low pressure and the offshore high. Coastal locations may even see gust up to around 20 mph overnight, which will push temperatures above freezing. The interior will rise, but remain below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Much warmer on Wednesday with highs getting into the 40s with the exception of locations well north and west of NYC. * Deepening low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix across inland locations. A changeover to rain is expected. Best chance for a minor accumulation will be across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Western Passaic in NJ. * A return to below normal temperatures Thursday. A progressive southern branch of the polar jet will send Pac jet energy into the Midwest, while additional shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex over eastern Canada allows some phasing of the two streams. The result will be a deepening low that tracks across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday, passing well north and west into eastern Canada Wednesday night. Warm advection and upper jet dynamics will produce a light precipitation event across the area, with liquid equivalent amount of 1-2 tenths. Thus, any snow accumulation inland is expected to be minor with the highest amounts across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and western Passaic in NJ. These locations could see up to an inch in spots. A complete changeover to rain is still expected but there has been a slight cooling trend over the last 24h. Coastal locations will see all rain from the start. Temperatures are also forecast to get above freezing everywhere. SW winds will continue ahead of the system and remain gusty at the coast. Weighed in some NBM90th for stronger winds based on 00Z vertical wind profiles from the GFS and NAM (which have been consistent with this). Conditions then dry out Wednesday night with some light precipitation possibly lingering into the evening. Following a cold frontal passage, lows will drop into the upper 20s inland and the lower 30s at the coast by daybreak. Below normal temperatures and gusty WNW flow will follow on Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph likely. Once again, leaned toward the NBM90 as the NBM in cold advection and westerly flow is often deficient. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s with lows Thursday night in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Points: * Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week. * A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries to the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another system will bring a chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the 00Z guidance is showing the potential for a more substantial system. * Another shot of Arctic air arriving behind low pressure Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure pushes offshore this afternoon. Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday. VFR Wednesday morning, except for KSWF where MVFR conditions move in between 15Z and 18Z Wednesday in association with precipitation moving in here with the low. It will start off as snow, with a transition to rain/snow mix by mid to late Wednesday afternoon. Light southerly winds this afternoon before shifting more SW tonight and increasing. Occasional gusts for the city terminals to around 15 kt overnight, except KJFK (and other coastal terminals such as KISP, KBDR, and KGON) where gusts of around 20 kt are expected (gusts may die off at KBDR or become more occasional there after 06Z, before starting up again Wednesday afternoon). Winds strengthen a bit after 14Z Wednesday, becoming 15 to 20 kt sustained for most terminals, with gusts 25 to around 30 kt (lower for KSWF). There is a low chance for wind shear of 40-45 kt at around 2 kft across the city terminals and the Lower Hudson Valley between 12-18Z Wednesday, but the potential is too low to include at this time ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected through this evening. Amendments possible for start time of gusts overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley, rain elsewhere. S-SW 10-15 G25-30 KT possible. Thursday: VFR. W gusts 25- to around 30 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late at night. W gusts around 20 kt. Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower in snow. NW flow with guts to around 20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch has been posted for all waters Wednesday in a strengthening S/SW flow. This will be preceded by SCA tonight. There is even a possibility for occasional gale force gusts on the ocean waters tonight. Gust potential Wednesday looks to be around 40 kt on the ocean waters and around 35 kt on the Sound and Bays. During this time, leaned toward the NBM90, which may be underdone still. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings show potential for a period where gusts may get up to 45 kt on the ocean waters. Seas are forecast to get as high on 8-13 ft on the ocean waters Wednesday. SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force. Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JP MARINE...BG/DW HYDROLOGY...DW