####018003225#### FXUS65 KREV 100941 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 241 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A dry pattern continues through the end of the week with enhanced breezes today, otherwise afternoon zephyr breezes prevail. * Temperatures warm through the weekend, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP analysis of the current upper air pattern shows the CWA with a northwesterly flow aloft being between an upper trough in the Rockies and high pressure in the Eastern Pacific this morning. Going through the day, model guidance has the high moving toward the west coast as a ridge feature develops. This setup allows for dry conditions to prevail underneath sunny skies today across the region. With better exposure to the sun today compared to yesterday, daytime high temperatures will be warmer today with the W NV and NE CA valleys being in the middle to upper 80s range and the Sierra communities being in the upper 70s to lower 80s range. Afternoon breezes gusting up to around 20-25 mph out of the northwest to north are also in the forecast. Tonight's low temperatures expect to be in the 40s and 50s and slightly warmer than those experienced Tuesday night. Going through the remainder of the week and into weekend, the ridge continues to build and moves more over the western CONUS by the weekend. At the beginning of next week, forecast guidance then projects a trough feature moving through AK and causing the ridge to breakdown. This evolution in the upper air pattern will allow for the dry conditions to continue in the region as well as temperatures to rise to above seasonal normals on Thursday and to well above June normals by Friday through the beginning of next week. Daily high temperatures from Friday to at least Tuesday are currently forecast to be in the 90s for NE CA and W NV valleys and in the 80s for the Sierra communities. With this streak of very warm temperatures, the latest NWS HeatRisk product shows widespread Minor to Moderate HeatRisk especially in the valleys on Friday through Tuesday. Please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans through the weekend and into early next week, especially if you are sensitive to heat. Lakes, rivers, and streams are still running cold, so please refrain from entering into them to cool down as hypothermia could set in quickly. Long term model guidance shows potential for the pattern to change in the possibly by the middle or end of next week, but there is good uncertainty this far out. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast today and tonight across the region. Afternoon breezes expect to gust up to around 20-25 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMMH with lesser winds seen for the rest of the TAF sites. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the rest of the week allowing for potential density altitude impacts by the weekend as temperatures warm to 10-15 degrees above June normals. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ ####018005238#### FXUS65 KPSR 100942 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 242 AM MST Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will be common during the next several days, with some lower desert locations approaching 110 degrees over the weekend. - An increase in moisture by the end of the week and weekend will lead to slight chances of showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Current objective analysis depicts longwave troughing in place from the Pacific northwest through the central and northern Rockies, with weak ridging over the Desert Southwest. With the upper-level height fields on the rise as a result of this weak ridging pattern in place, afternoon high temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees warmer compared to yesterday as readings top out in the mid to upper 100s across the lower deserts under mostly clear skies. Heading into the latter half of the week, as the aforementioned longwave trough finally ejects east-northeastward into the upper Midwest and south-central Canada, it will allow the subtropical ridge, currently centered near Gulf Coast region, to expand westward. At the same time a weak upper-level low will move northward off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. These two features will cause the flow aloft to shift out of the south, allowing moisture to gradually increase later Thursday through Friday as PWATs increase above 1.0" across much central and southern AZ. As the moisture advection is ongoing late Thursday into Friday, a lobe of vorticity, providing upper-level ascent, is projected to move through the area. This will result in an area of isolated to widely scattered elevated showers to break out across portions of southwest and south-central AZ Friday morning, where NBM PoPs range between 15-25%. Given the lack of deep moisture in place, most of the showers that do develop will high-based and thus rainfall accumulations will be very minimal. Afternoon high temperatures both Thursday and Friday will remain steady state, in the mid to upper 100s across the lower deserts. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... Moisture levels will remain well-above normal (200-250% of normal), with PWATs hovering between 1.0-1.4", during the weekend. The combination of the moisture and daytime heating will favor afternoon convection across the AZ high terrain. The limited instability with large T/Td spreads and dry sub-cloud layer will favor dry lightning and gusty outflow winds versus heavy rainfall, as is typical with convective activity in June. There are some indications from guidance of some elevated showers and isolated storms materializing and affecting portions of the lower deserts Saturday morning, likely due to another lobe of upper-level vorticity moving through. Heading into early next week, as another longwave trough builds across much of the central CONUS, west to northwest flow will usher in much drier air into the region and scour out most of the moisture. With upper-level heights remaining stagnant throughout the weekend and early next week, temperatures are expected to remain steady state with afternoon highs each day in the upper 100s across most of the lower desert communities, with some areas, especially the western deserts, touching 110 degrees. Overnight lows will be above normal with most locations bottoming out in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No significant weather issues will exist through Wednesday night under clear skies. Confidence is very good that trends in wind directions and speeds will follow a near persistence forecast. In the Phoenix metro, this means a definitive easterly shift overnight, then a few occasional gusts 15-20kt Wednesday afternoon after the transition back to W/SW. In SE California, winds will revert to a S/SE direction overnight, then back to a W/SW component after sunset Wednesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonably hot conditions with temperatures in an above normal category will continue during the next several days. The overall winds through the end of the week will be on the lighter side with limited afternoon upslope gustiness. MinRHs will bottom out in the single digits today and increase into the lower teens on Thursday. MinRHs will increase even further into the 15-20% range beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend as moisture increases. With the increasing moisture will also come increasing chances for at least isolated thunderstorms across the AZ high terrain over the weekend, with gusty outflow winds and dry lightning potentially leading to natural fire starts being the main hazards. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Lojero