####018011926#### FXUS62 KGSP 091811 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 111 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will cross our region from the west through Wednesday then a cold front crosses our area early Wednesday night. High pressure returns Thursday and into the weekend ahead of an arctic cold front which arrives Sunday. Dry and cold high pressure will be in control of our weather early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1215 PM Tue: Key message 1: Low clouds keeping temperatures chilly this afternoon. A low-level inversion will persist this afternoon and evening as a result of subsidence under offshore ridge but also southwesterly WAA in advance of approaching trough. Low stratus layer which developed Mon night is trapped under this inversion. The small amount of diurnal heating which has managed to occur has allowed some lifting of the layer and for some areas to see the stratus turn into shallow stratocu, but only slow scattering is expected thru the rest of the day. Max temps not expected to break out of the lower 40s in most areas, though parts of the Savannah Valley could reach 45-48 owing to earlier scattering. Somewhat surprisingly flurries were reported across the WNC foothills around 9-10 AM under the low clouds, attributed to weak surface convergence and slight lift from the WAA and/or a weak shortwave ripple. With a more distinct shortwave on water vapor imagery yet to cross the area this afternoon, can't entirely rule out a few more such flurries, which could reduce visibility slightly. Questionable whether road temps would be cold enough for any sticking this afternoon. Key message 2: Strong wind gusts developing Wednesday morning. 850mb winds continue to ramp up overnight with LLJ advancing across KY/TN thru daybreak, preceding the axis of the main shortwave concurrently digging in the upper MS Valley. Higher elevations look to see 15-25 mph winds develop by sunrise. Cloud cover will be a bit tricky overnight, with potential for nocturnal cooling to allow a very low fog/stratus layer to form, but drier/warmer air also advecting in as low as 925 mb. Currently favoring clouds to remain scattered enough to allow more rapid warming than we saw Tue morning, which will allow mixing of strong winds to begin early in the day. Most lower elevations look to experience gusts to near 30 mph by late morning, with high elevations exposed to 30-40 mph gusts by that time as core of LLJ passes the mountains/foothills. Compressional warming and expectation of sunshine will bring temps back into the 50s for most locations in the afternoon; warmest areas may prove to be in the immediate lee of major ridges where downsloping also has an effect. The strongest 850mb winds are seen over the Piedmont during peak heating, suggesting frequent 30-35 mph gusts and peak gusts for the afternoon likely near 40 mph. Will add HWO mention with Wind Advisory possibly being needed over the mountains; not confident enough on advisory gusts to warrant mention for the Piedmont at this time. Key message 3: Northwest flow snowfall developing Wednesday afternoon/evening near the Tennessee border. Cold advection will begin following the LLJ passage; base of shortwave progged to pass the Appalachians by around 00z Thu. Winds turn westerly during the afternoon along the TN border, and to the NW near the base of the trough, with accompanying upslope moisture. Surface temps should fall rapidly over the mountains by sunset; top of the moist layer will approach favorable temps for ice nucleation, with cooling overcoming the increasingly shallow moisture overnight. The most favorable locations, isolated peaks nearest the TN border, are expected to see 2-3" snow by 12z Thu. However, farther from the border, lower QPF translates to lower amounts, and zone averages in the border counties are low enough (even in areas above 3500') to warrant a Winter Wx Advisory at this time. Will also add/refine HWO mention for the snow. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1205 PM EST Tuesday... Key Message #1: Breezy conditions linger into early Thursday, especially at higher elevations. Synoptic and regional guidance depict mostly weakening low-level winds by Thursday morning. Though the core of the LLJ will now be well to our east, and most if not all of the forecast area subject to a postfrontal CAA regime...low-level winds may not peak until shortly after daybreak Thursday, before slowly weakening through the day. The result will be a continuation of Wednesday night's breezy conditions into the first part of Thursday. In mountain valleys and at lower elevations, the gusts should mostly be over by Thursday morning; at higher elevations, however, which will protrude directly into the CAA layer, gusts will continue past the overnight and into Thursday morning. Key Message #2: Northwest flow showers and flurries develop Wednesday night along the NC-TN state line. In tandem with the CAA regime, lingering low-level moisture across the Appalachians will produce scattered NW flow snow flurries...continuing past 12z Thursday. Though overall coverage will be lower than during the overnight, operational guidance depicts enough moisture to justify a slight chance PoP across the northern Blue Ridge early Thursday. By the afternoon, moisture should continue to retreat north, and precipitation should come to an end. Little to no accumulation is expected past 12z Thursday. Key Message #3: Cooler-than-normal temperatures on Thursday begin to warm back toward normal on Friday. As postfrontal high pressure slides east across the lower Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon, the initial result will be a decrease in temperatures across the western Carolinas as the cooler air mass slides into place. It should remain fairly progressive, however, approaching the Atlantic coast on Thursday night and Friday. A southwesterly return flow should develop, and operational guidance depicts slow onset of low-level WAA late Thursday night, followed by more vigorous flow on Friday. As a result...generally expect temperatures at least a category below normal on Thursday, with highs in the mid- to upper-40s in most areas, possibly hitting 50 in a few spots across the Savannah River Valley and southern Upstate. Temperatures will crash into the mid-20s Thursday night, before rebounding to the mid-50s, within a category of normal, on Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1153 AM EST Tuesday... Key Message #1: Anomalously warm conditions on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. Friday night and Saturday, probabilistic guidance depicts an ill-defined cold front advancing out of the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas, resulting in a weak round of low-level CAA across the area. Despite some elevated flow aloft - 30-35kt z850 flow according to some operational guidance - the consensus is that most zones will remain decoupled enough so as to prevent any of this wind from mixing down to the surface...and in turn, the low elevations as well as the mountain valleys generally look to have quiet winds Friday night and early Saturday, where only the higher peaks may continue to see breezy winds by virtue of simply being closer to the actual CAA layer. On Saturday, WSW flow will continue, and downsloping will contribute early in the day to warmer temperatures, partially or completely offsetting any cooling due to CAA. By mid-day, winds should toggle more decidedly to the S/SW, resulting in weak WAA and further contributing to warmer temps on Saturday. All told, most of the area can expect to see highs some 1-2 categories warmer than climo...the upper 50s for the low terrain, or even the lower 60s south of I-85. Key Message #2: Scattered showers and some high-elevation snow develops over the region Saturday night. Prefrontal WAA and associated moisture flux will continue into Saturday night as a shortwave axis extending from the NC Appalachians northward into Pennsylvania crosses the region. The better forcing will remain well to our north over Virginia and the Cumberland Plateau, but we can still expect some precipitation to develop after 00z Sunday. For the bulk of the area, confidence is high that this will be all rain; however, for higher elevations across the NC mountains, rain may change over to snow as temperatures cool. Accumulations should be very light, and confined to the highest elevations. It's not entirely out of the question that isolated spots across the NC Foothills, mainly north of I-40, could see brief flurries Sunday morning, but certainly no accumulations are anticipated here. Key Message #3: A cold front arrives Sunday and ushers in a much colder air mass for the start of next week. Any WAA on Saturday will quickly end Saturday night, as a more well-defined frontal boundary swings out of Tennessee. Postfrontal CAA will develop during the wee hours of Sunday morning, but present guidance suggests it will not become maximized until well into the day Sunday, or even Sunday evening. So, highs on Sunday will be closer to normal, but not especially cold. By Sunday night, however, robust CAA will usher in a much colder, largely unmodified continental air mass...and lows will fall into the mid- to lower-20s across most the forecast area, with some higher peaks in the Appalacians even falling into the teens. On Monday, much of the forecast area may only recover into the upper 30s or lower 40s, before falling back into the 20s that night...which should be an excellent one for radiative cooling. However, past this time the air mass should quickly begin to modify. Ensemble guidance suggests temperatures could be back within a category or so of normal again by the end of the seven-day forecast on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Areas of MVFR stratus or stratocu persist over all TAF terminals except KAVL as of 18z, trapped under a persistent inversion. Some drying/mixing is occurring at the top of the PBL such that slow scattering and/or lifting should continue thru the afternoon. Nevertheless, with that process being slow and limited confidence clearing will occur before sunset, allowed cigs to break up at the terminals by 21-22z but kept FEW-SCT mention overnight. Though drying is likely to continue above the PBL overnight, the inversion will be reinforced nocturnally. A shallow moist layer could lead to IFR to LIFR deck forming overnight; increasing winds appear to be the main limiting factor in that occurrence. IFR cig only included at KHKY. LLWS threat increases toward daybreak and is mentioned at KCLT/KGSP/KGMU/KAVL at some point between 08z and 18z. Too intermittent in guidance to warrant inclusion at KHKY or KAND with this set. Strong gusts of 20-25 kt likely with morning warming, assuming cigs do not form overnight. All sites likely to see 25-30 kt winds after noon with a few peak gusts of 35-40 kt possible. Outlook: NW flow snow showers along the NC/TN border Wednesday night and again Thursday night into Friday; MVFR cannot be ruled out at KAVL in those periods. Likely VFR and dry elsewhere through late week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JCW SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JCW ####018010896#### FXUS66 KPQR 091811 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1011 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged atmospheric river continues to influence the Pacific Northwest, sustaining periods of heavy rainfall, breezy winds, and widespread hydrologic concerns through late Wednesday, possibly as late as early Thursday. Widespread river flooding remains likely, along with urban and small stream flooding due to persistent heavy rain. Wind may lead to downed trees and power outages due to saturated soils. && DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...Over the past 24 hours, around 4 to 7 inches of rain has fallen over the north Oregon Cascades, south Washington Cascades, Willapa Hills, north Oregon Coast Range, south Washington coast, and northern and central Oregon coast. About 1.5 to 4.5 inches of rain has fallen over the Lower Columbia, Cowlitz Valley, and Portland/Vancouver metro. Refer to the Hydrology section below for river information. As of 430 AM, precipitation has decreased along the coast but has increased inland. Around 230 AM to 330 AM, a mesoscale band of heavy rain moved southward through the Portland/Vancouver metro. Around 0.20 to 0.40 inch per hour was observed over the area during that time period, increasing urban flooding and prompting the issuance of a Flood Advisory. With this mesoscale band and increasing precipitation inland, the Flood Advisory will be maintained until 10 AM today. Attention now turns to the second moisture surge expected to arrive later this afternoon and persist into Wednesday. IVT values are projected to be around 600 to 700 kg/ms across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, suggesting the strength of the atmospheric river to remain moderate. Given past observations since Monday, we could see a stronger atmospheric river. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected this morning through Thursday afternoon over the interior lowlands to the north of Eugene. Around 3.5 to 6.5 inches of additional rain is expected over the Cascades and coastal mountains, mainly to the north of Lane County. Given the saturated state of the soil across the area, this will maintain an elevated threat for urban, small stream, and river flooding. Landslides in areas of steep terrain will be possible due to saturated soils, as well as debris flows over recently burned areas. The focus once again appears to be northern portions of the forecast area, though the entire region will experience additional rainfall. Snow levels remain high, holding near or above 8000 ft through at least Wednesday, keeping all precipitation as rain in the Cascades as rain, further contributing to elevated runoff and river responses. A gradual downward trend in snow levels is likely late Wednesday night, but too late to influence impacts during the peak of this event. Winds remain a secondary hazard but continue to carry relevance given soil saturation. Overnight gusts generally ranged from 25 to 35 mph across the Advisory area. Similar speeds are expected again later today as the second surge arrives. Even moderate gusts may be capable of uprooting trees due to the extremely saturated ground. Confidence remains moderate to high regarding scattered tree impacts but low regarding exact location. The atmospheric river weakens late Wednesday as moisture transport decreases and the plume begins to dissipate. Showers will persist into Thursday, though rainfall intensity will be much lighter and increasingly confined to higher terrain across southwest Washington and the north Oregon Coast Range. A more stable pattern develops Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds, leading to a notable drying trend. Snow levels gradually lower to around 5500 to 6500 ft through the weekend. Despite the improving weather, hydrologic impacts for slow- responding rivers may linger a bit longer. Soils will remain saturated, particularly across the Coast Range and Cascades, leaving the region sensitive to additional rainfall. ~12 && .HYDROLOGY... A strong atmospheric river remains in place across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon this morning, maintaining an elevated threat of urban, river, and small stream flooding through at least late Wednesday. Significant rainfall has already fallen across much of the region since early Monday, and river responses are now well underway. Additional rainfall today through Wednesday from the second moisture surge will prolong elevated flows, with many rivers already exceeding flood stage, or forecast to exceed flood stage within the next 24-36 hours. Rainfall over the past 24 to 36 hours has already pushed several rivers into flood stage, including record flooding on the Grays River (the old record height was 33.15 ft, which was broken around 10 PM Monday when river levels peaked around 33.4 ft), major flooding on the Naselle River, moderate flooding on the Willapa River, and minor flooding for Nehalem River, Wilson River, Trask River, Beaver Creek, East Fork Lewis River, Miami River, and Washougal River. Elsewhere, many basins continue rising and are expected to respond sharply again as periods of heavy rain continue. While the Siletz River, Cowlitz River (Kelso and Castle Rock), and Johnson Creek are currently not in flood stage or action stage, these rivers are expected to reach minor flood stage late this morning. Expect the Pudding River to reach minor flood stage by late Wednesday. The threat for flooding along small creeks and streams as well as urban flooding, including roadway flooding, will continue through Wednesday. Latest high-resolution guidance favors a band of heavier precipitation lingering over southwestern Washington and far northwestern Oregon this morning, with rates around 0.25 inch per hour or higher. These heavy rainfall rates could make for a hazardous morning commute along the I-5 corridor from Salem north through Portland/Vancouver to Kelso/Longview with abundant water atop area roadways. Ponding of water on roads will increase risk of hydroplaning and car accidents. Periods of heavy rain will also increase the risk for landslides in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over recently burned areas. People, structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides. A Flood Watch remains in effect across all of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon from now until 4 PM Thursday, except for most of Lane County which has been removed from the Flood Watch. && && .AVIATION...A mixed bag of LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs and IFR/MVFR/VFR visibilities continues across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with cigs and visibilities being lowest from KONP to KSLE and points north where a large band of steady stratiform rain continues. Rain will be heavy at times through Tuesday afternoon, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours north of KEUG. Rain should finally begin to taper off from south to north between 06-12z Wednesday as the aforementioned band of stratiform rain lifts northward over western Washington. Although winds have become less gusty, occasional wind gusts up to 20-25 kt are still being observed inland and up to 30 kt at KONP. Winds will increase along the coast through the day, especially at KONP where wind gusts will likely approach 35-40 kt. The remaining TAF sites will see wind gusts increasing late this afternoon into tonight. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect steady stratiform rain to persist through at least 00z Wednesday, heavy at times this morning before rain attempts becoming relatively light this evening. This will result in development of MVFR cigs between 18-21Z, then persisting throughout the TAF period, with occasional dips to IFR possible (20-35% chance) through 00z Wednesday, and then to 60-70% by 01z. Although winds have weakened this morning, expect winds to increase again towards 02-06z Wednesday when southerly to southwesterly wind gusts up to 25-30 kt are likely. && .MARINE...Buoy observations from early Tuesday morning showed seas hovering around 13 to 14 ft with weakening winds. Seas should fall to 12-13 ft by Tuesday afternoon and then remain steady through Wednesday night. Seas likely fall to 10 ft or lower by Thursday afternoon. Gale force wind gusts up to 35-40 kt are expected across the inner waters with the passage of a frontal system late Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 kt over the outer waters. That said, gale force wind gusts are likely already occurring across PZZ253. Gusts will likely peak near 35 kt over the Columbia River Bar beginning around sunset Tuesday. Seas and winds will likely fall below small craft advisory criteria on Friday, with relatively quiet conditions expected over the coastal waters over the weekend. -23 && .BEACH HAZARDS...Buoy observations from early Tuesday morning showed seas hovering around 13 to 14 ft with weakening winds. Seas should fall to 12-13 ft by Tuesday afternoon and then remain steady through Wednesday night. Seas likely fall to 10 ft or lower by Thursday afternoon. Gale force wind gusts up to 35-40 kt are expected across the inner waters with the passage of a frontal system late Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 kt over the outer waters. That said, gale force wind gusts are likely already occurring across PZZ253. Gusts will likely peak near 35 kt over the Columbia River Bar beginning around sunset Tuesday. Seas and winds will likely fall below small craft advisory criteria on Friday, with relatively quiet conditions expected over the coastal waters over the weekend. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ101-102. WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ201. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210- 251-252. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ210-251-252. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland ####018002474#### FXUS62 KTBW 091811 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 111 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday will warm back up later this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 This afternoon's satellite imagery shows conditions clearing for areas north of I4 while mostly cloudy conditions linger to the south where moisture is still available. Cooler and drier air will continue to move over the area along the north northeast winds today and tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s, especially over northern portions of the forecast area where clear skies will allow for some radiational cooling. Another weak cold front will swing through the area Thursday dropping temperatures Friday morning once again. Rain chances remain out of the forecast until Saturday night into Sunday when an upper level disturbance crosses over FL slightly increasing moisture. However, rain chance will still remain minimal during this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail, though a thick layer of clouds remains over South Florida. Another cloud deck is expected to move over the area overnight, but should remain VFR. Conditions clear tomorrow as dry air moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Breezy, exercise caution conditions will continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Another weak cold front will move over the waters Thursday slightly increasing winds once again, however should remain below headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 54 70 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 59 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 54 72 51 70 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 56 71 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 45 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 58 70 60 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle ####018004588#### FXUS62 KCAE 091812 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 112 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and cloudy conditions continue today with below normal temperatures. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period with near to slightly below normal temperatures. A colder air mass may move in behind a dry cold front early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Cool and dry, clouds clearing this afternoon Clouds have held in longer than most models projected leading to temps in the upper 30s to low 40s through mid day. Now that we are beginning to see some clearing, which will continue through the afternoon, those temps should jump up a bit into the mid 40s to upper 40s for highs. With high pressure moving directly over the region, winds will be light and variable through the day. Tonight, expect below normal temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. The HRRR which had a better handle than most models on the low clouds through the morning shows redevelopment late tonight. This could hinder cooling during the early morning hours on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Breezy for Wednesday as a dry front moves, followed by below average temps. As strong low pressure system cuts through the Great Lakes, an associated surface front will drag across the Appalachians on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will notably strengthen by late morning and drive some gusty southwest winds throughout the day, along with completely clearing out any residual low stratus. Gusts to around 35mph are expected in the afternoon and a Lake Wind Advisory is out from late morning into the evening. With PWAT's down below 0.75" and limited forcing, this front will be dry as it moves through in the evening. Dry high pressure will then build in for Thursday behind this front with below average temps returning, despite sunny clear skies; 1000-500mb thicknesses will be around 540- 535dm, so a modest shot of cold air pushing in. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Moderating temps through Saturday before a strong, but dry, front arrives late in the weekend. The trough that digs in Thursday will steadily flatten out as weak surface ridging pushes into the area. Temps will steadily moderate to right around average, in the 50's and low 60's with PWAT's too low for any precip. A strong digging trough is the next notable weather maker which will approach the area Sunday. Strengthening southwest flow and some persistent moisture advection could help pop a few showers across the area Sunday ahead the surface front, but widespread rain looks unlikely. The front will then push through sometime late Sunday with a strong cold advection regime behind it; temps will then run below for the early half of next week. The ensemble guidance however is in a state, with great discrepancies in how far south this cold, shallow airmass can make it. The NBM 25- 75th percentiles for morning lows on Monday ranges from 17-34 F and then similarly again for Tuesday morning. So, it will take some time for the ensembles to come into better agreement on how this cold airmass will progress. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR/IFR ceilings possible early Wednesday morning High pressure over the region will keeps winds light and variable through today. The HRRR, which verified well with stratus over the past 24 hours, is indicating the potential for stratus/strato cu to build back in tonight as SW winds develop. This will likely lead to a period of MVFR or possibly IFR ceilings around 12Z. We are expecting restrictions to be short lived however as the pressure gradient tightens and winds begin gusting around 15Z. SW wind gusts above 20 kts are likely through the afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts possible. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will hinder widespread restrictions through much of the extended, but localized fog along river valleys will be possible some mornings. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$ ####018004926#### FXUS64 KFWD 091813 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1213 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and above average temperatures will close out this work week, with plenty of sun and highs in the 70s Thursday through Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - There is increasing potential for a storm system early next week to bring scattered rain showers to North and Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A mild day is expected across Central and North Texas today with plentiful sun, breezy southwest winds at 10-20 mph and highs in the 60s. Areas east of a line from Bonham to Palestine may struggle to warm out of the 50s due to a stratus deck that kept temperatures cooler this morning. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows dropping into the low and mid 40s. Wednesday morning, a weak front will push through the area bringing gusty northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and much drier air behind it. Temperatures behind the front will still warm into the 60s owing to plentiful sun and the lack of humidity in the post- frontal airmass. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s. For the end of the work-week, longwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure will keep skies clear and bring warmer afternoon temperatures to the region. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range anywhere from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The cooler temperatures are expected across Northeast Texas, and the warmer temperatures are expected across Central Texas. Friday Night, a weak frontal boundary will likely stall out somewhere in proximity to the Red River Valley. Most of us will be south of this boundary, with high temperatures on Saturday expected to remain in the low and mid 70s. However, if you find yourself north of the boundary (will likely need to be north of US-82), high temperatures on Saturday may struggle to make it out of the mid 60s. Weak isentropic ascent and the return of low- level moisture ahead of this boundary will result in considerable cloudiness and isolated rain showers (20-30% chance), particularly Saturday evening into Saturday night east of US-75/I-45. Late Saturday Night/early Sunday morning, a strong cold front looks to push southward across our area. Much cooler temperatures will arrive with the passage of this front, with high temperatures in the 50s along and south of the I-20 corridor, and in the upper 40s closer to the Red River. By the beginning of next work week, an upper-level disturbance will eject out into the Southern Great Plains. The return of moisture from the south in addition to synoptic scale forcing owing to PVA will result in increasing chances (30-40%) for rain showers in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. As subsequent forecast cycles get closer to this next system, rain chances across much of the area will likely increase as confidence grows in the timing of the disturbance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 South winds with periodic gusts up to 20 kts will veer and become southwesterly after 00Z tonight. Despite strong flow at 020 of 35-40 kts, surface winds should remain strong enough to mitigate a higher LLWS threat. This changes with the passage of a cold front around 12Z (DFW), as there will be a 3-4 hour window where surface NNW surface winds will be light (~34005KT) and under very strong NNE winds (03045KT) anywhere between 015 and 020 ft. LLWS concerns will subside after 15Z as diurnal mixing kicks in and stronger winds develop at the surface (this should happen before LLWS concerns develop at KACT). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 44 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 41 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 40 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 42 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 45 64 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 42 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 46 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 42 67 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 42 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah