####018009313#### FXUS61 KPHI 170718 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 318 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The chance for showers were increased some today, mostly this afternoon, for portions of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Above average temperatures continue today into Saturday. Some showers and thunder for parts of the area today into early this evening. 2. Widespread minor tidal flooding is forecast to occur along the Atlantic coasts of NJ and DE, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the Saturday evening/night high tide. 3. A strong cold front will cross through the area Sunday morning, resulting in a period of showers and some thunderstorms along with cooler and breezy conditions. 4. Much cooler, below normal temperatures are expected into early next week. Widespread frost and/or freeze appears likely Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures continue today into Saturday. Some showers and thunder for parts of the area today into early this evening. An upper-level trough axis is forecast to slide across our area during today. This will break down the pattern that has brought record warmth to most of the region. While temperatures today will still be well above average, highs will be about 10 degrees lower than yesterday. The presence of the upper-level trough and its associated cooling aloft will also result in additional clouds developing during daytime heating. In addition, enough instability develops for some showers to occur especially from about the I-95 corridor on eastward especially this afternoon. The model forecast soundings show skinny instability (CAPE) profiles with this being at and below 20,000 feet. This would result in low-topped convection which may produce little or no lightning. The coverage of the showers through the day, especially this afternoon, looks to be isolated to scattered as the overall forcing is not strong. The low- level flow is forecast to become lighter as the afternoon wears on, therefore a sea breeze circulation should develop and once again result in it being cooler along the coast. The warmth continues into Saturday, however a northeast to east low- level flow will become established as a backdoor front pushes southwestward. This will result in much cooler temperatures closest to the coast with the warmest on Saturday across our western zones. Some guidance is rather robust with the marine influence, especially as the boundary layer warms up quite a bit inland, and therefore shoves the cooling farther inland by late afternoon. High temperatures still above average Saturday, however they will continue to step downward as we get much closer to a more significant pattern change. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor tidal flooding is forecast to occur along the Atlantic coasts of NJ and DE, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with the Saturday evening/night high tide. High astronomical tides associated with the new moon occurring today and persistent onshore flow developing tonight and especially Saturday is forecast to result in widespread minor tidal flooding with the Saturday evening/night high tide along the Atlantic coasts of NJ and DE, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. Some spotty minor tidal flooding may occur in some areas with the high tide this evening/tonight, though any impacts will be limited enough to preclude and advisory. As southeast winds persist on Saturday, surge values will increase to near 1 foot above normal, which will put most tidal areas into minor flood stage during high tide Saturday evening/night. This may warrant an advisory with a future update. A modest offshore wind will develop in the wake of a cold front on Sunday, which should limit the threat of any additional flooding for Sunday night's high tide. No tidal flood is forecast for the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay. KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong cold front will cross through the area Sunday morning, resulting in a period of showers and some thunderstorms along with much cooler and breezy conditions. A deep upper trough will approach the region Saturday night. A strong cold front will precede this trough and slide across the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure may also develop along the front in our vicinity. As the main trough axis hangs back farther to the west, much of the shower activity may occur behind the actual front. Given the strength of the incoming upper-level trough, forcing for ascent should be strong enough to result in widespread shower coverage, or even stratiform rain for a time. The thunder risk at this time looks rather low given the timing of the front, however some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. This will be beneficial rain, and it will also usher in a significant cool down into early next week. Rainfall amounts look to be around 0.10-0.25" along and southeast of I-95, and perhaps as much as 0.50" toward I-78 and points north of there. A gusty northwest wind will also occur in the wake of the cold front on Sunday, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible across the area. Highs Sunday will only be in the 50s to low 60s in most areas. Skies will be mostly cloudy. However, if some sun can break through the clouds late in the day, temperatures may warm some before dark. KEY MESSAGE 4...Much cooler, below normal temperatures are expected into early next week. Widespread frost and/or freeze appears likely Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lingering gradient wind and cold advection Sunday night into Monday morning should limit frost formation, despite temperatures dropping into the 30s in many areas. Temperatures will likely fall to near or just below freezing north of I-78, which may warrant freeze headlines for these areas (save for the southern Poconos, where the growing season has not begun). Temperatures Monday will be quite chilly compared to our recent record breaking warmth, with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s. This will be about 10-15 degrees below normal. Breezy northwest winds will continue as well, with gusts up to 30 mph possible under partly cloudy skies. Much lighter winds and a colder airmass with high pressure settling overhead should set the stage for widespread frost and/or freeze conditions Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Forecast low temperatures by Tuesday morning range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures will begin to rebound Tuesday as airmass modification begins with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures Tuesday night should be mild enough to preclude any frost/freeze concerns, with lows mainly in the 40s. Temperatures will rebound slight above normal by the middle to end of the week with limited chances of convection. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR overall with a ceiling between about 5,000-10,000 feet AGL. Northwesterly winds diminish to near 5 knots early this morning then increase to 8-12 knots. Some wind gusts up to 20 knots possible later this morning into this afternoon. A few showers developing through the day with isolated thunder possible (PROB30 included at most terminals). Low confidence on timing/coverage details of showers. Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds. MVFR ceilings should develop overnight from east to west. North-northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming northeast near 5 knots. Low confidence regarding MVFR ceiling details and if any local fog develops. Outlook... Saturday...MVFR ceilings possible to start, then VFR. Saturday night through Sunday night...Restrictions likely at times. Widespread showers developing by early Sunday morning, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Northwest winds will become increasingly gusty by Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Wind gusts up to 25 kt possible on Monday, otherwise no significant weather expected. && .MARINE... The conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. A wind shift to the northwest then north and eventually from the northeast is expected today into tonight. Outlook... Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Saturday night through Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely due to wind gusts around 25-30 kt. Otherwise, no marine headlines are expected. Monday night through Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse/Staarmann AVIATION...Gorse/Staarmann MARINE...Gorse/Staarmann ####018007729#### FXUS62 KMLB 170719 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 319 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Dry and increasingly warm conditions this weekend with interior locations nearing record highs - Cold front Sunday night into Monday brings windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and a limited rain chance - Beach and boating conditions will deteriorate Sunday night into early next week as winds create rough surf and building seas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Today-Sunday...The advertised warming trend heats up today as high pressure continues to build over the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees this morning set the stage for an efficient warmup into the 80s, nearing 90 degrees in several spots this afternoon. GOES-derived PW indicates really dry air anchored over our area, but some 1"+ values are starting to approach the Treasure Coast. Here, a scattered layer of stratocumulus is streaming northwestward and producing light showers (south of Martin County, for now). The forecast, reflecting recent hi-res guidance, carries a 15-20% chance of showers through midday from Vero Beach southward. Elsewhere, dry and mostly sunny conditions will persist as the east coast breeze develops and moves inland. Tonight, lows settle into the 60s to low 70s areawide with no rain forecast. H85 temps warm a bit more Saturday and Sunday, solidifying a medium to high chance (50-80%+ NBM prob.) of locations near/west of I-95 reaching the 90-degree mark. There will be a few more clouds Saturday and especially Sunday as the upper column and 850-750mb layer moistens. Model soundings still show a stout dry layer between 700-400mb, working to suppress any precip chances. The east coast breeze should keep highs a few degrees cooler on Saturday, but perhaps less so on Sunday as light westerlies delay the formation of the breeze later into the day. For those spending time outdoors, especially individuals sensitive to warmer temperatures (low 90s), be sure to take breaks in a cool space and stay adequately hydrated. At area beaches, at least a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast to continue. Swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone! Sunday Night-Thursday...High pressure quickly weakens Sunday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds start to turn northerly just before or around midnight as this front approaches, and breezy conditions look to develop along the coast through daybreak Monday (gusts 20-25 mph, up to 30 mph in Volusia). Lack of forcing and time of day will limit overall precip coverage through sunrise, but with increasing PW along the front on Monday, a 25-40% rain chance is introduced from Cape Canaveral southward. Even across the south where chances are maximized, light QPF is anticipated (generally 0.10" or less). Conditions will be breezy to gusty in the wake of the front on Monday and even into Tuesday. Hazardous beach conditions are likely to start the week as a result, including an increased risk for life-threatening rip currents. Drier conditions return Tuesday, as high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic expands south and west. An onshore breeze continues mid to late week, and some guidance tries to indicate embedded light showers forming in the easterly flow. With low confidence and lack of model-to-model consistencies, rain chances generally remain 15% or less at the coast Wed-Fri. Temperatures cool noticeably for the first half of the week, remaining slightly below normal. By mid to late week, though, temps bounce back closer to normal (upper 70s to mid 80s). && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Sunday afternoon with high pressure established over the local waters. Light southerly flow this morning veers easterly late this afternoon, 8-12 kt, behind the developing sea breeze. SSE winds linger overnight and into Saturday, reaching 10-14 kt and veering SSW late Saturday night. This light offshore wind backs SSE Sunday afternoon, just ahead of an approaching cold front arriving Sunday night. A 2-3 ft swell is forecast to persist through Sunday with only a low chance of isolated showers through midday today, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet. Sunday night into Monday, a cold front is forecast to move south across the waters. Quickly deteriorating conditions result as NNE winds increase 20-30 kt with occasional gusts near or just below gale-force. Seas respond by building rapidly to 7-11 ft Monday and Monday night. Boating conditions gradually improve north to south late Tuesday into Wednesday but may remain poor overall. Small Craft Advisories will be needed beginning Sunday night. Scattered showers and even an isolated lightning storm are possible along/behind the front late Sunday night through Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Light and variable winds persist at the terminals early this morning along with mostly clear skies. While there continues to be some model guidance hinting at a low chance for some patchy fog development, confidence is not high enough in this to include within the forecast. Winds pick up to around 10 knots out of the east after 16Z along the coast and after 19Z across the interior, becoming light and variable once more late tonight. Mostly dry conditions are forecast near the terminals, though there is a low chance for isolated showers near SUA and possible FPR. Did not include any mention of this within the forecast package, but will monitor and amend as necessary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 A dry airmass and high pressure will continue to support lower humidity over interior east-central Florida today and Saturday. Light and variable winds overnight and each morning turn onshore during the day, reaching 10 to 15 mph. Occasional gusts around 20 mph are possible, particularly at the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. By and large, fire sensitive conditions are anticipated. Additionally, an isolated shower or two is possible through midday along the Treasure Coast. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Record Highs for Friday-Sunday (17th-19th): April 17th April 18th April 19th Daytona Beach 89 2022 92 1967 92 1968 Leesburg 92 1991 90 1990 92 2020 Sanford 92 1967 94 1967 94 2020 Orlando 95 1922 93 1922 94 1922 Melbourne 90 2006 91 2015 93 2015 Vero Beach 91 2021 92 2015 93 1969 Fort Pierce 93 1919 94 2015 92 1988 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 89 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 83 66 85 68 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 90 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 90 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 90 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 83 66 86 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Tollefsen