####018007780#### FXUS61 KALY 131815 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 115 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers today, especially near and north of I-90 before a a disturbance developing off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to light snow accumulations and slippery travel mainly for the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hill, western MA, and the central and southern Taconics tonight before exiting early Sunday. Then, an Arctic cold front will push through on Sunday, resulting in cold and blustery conditions Sunday night into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through the weekend. - A disturbance will bring light snow to areas mainly south of Albany tonight into early Sunday. There is a 40-70% chance of at least 2" of snow. Discussion: As of 200 AM, radar and webcams indicating a few leftover lake effect flurries over the NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions in place with satellite imagery showing plenty of clouds from around I-90 north. Water vapor shows a potent lead short wave (associated with a larger upper low/though over the upper Great Lakes) moving through Michigan/Lake Huron at this time. This system will continue to track east across our area today, bringing snow showers from around mid morning into the afternoon. Snow showers will be scattered around the I-90 corridor, but more widespread in the W. Mohawk Valley and SW. Adirondacks where S-SW upslope flow aloft will enhance lift. Most of the area will have < 1" of snow, with 1-2" in the SW. Adirondacks. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal today, with highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A southerly breeze will gust around 10-20 mph at times. Some brief lake effect snow showers will move across parts of the W/SW Adirondacks early this evening as westerly flow briefly aligns. Then, as the upstream positively tilted upper low/trough over the Great Lakes starts to shift SE, a potent short wave rounding the base of the trough tracks into the Ohio Valley. Forcing ahead of this disturbance along with limited cyclogenesis off the mid Atlantic coast will bring a period of steady light snow to areas mainly south of Albany from late this evening to early Sun morning. Not much change from the prior forecast, with 1-2" snow for areas south/east of Albany and < 1" from Albany north/west. NBM probs for > 3" are only 20-40% for SE areas, so there is high confidence this will be a minor event. The snow will be dry/fluffy too with snow-liquid ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. Lows will range from the single digits in the mountains to 10s/lower 20s in the valleys. The steady light snow SE of Albany should taper off an hour or two after sunrise, with mainly dry conditions thereafter. The only exception will be scattered snow showers developing along an Arctic cold front that will push southward across the area during the afternoon. The snow showers should mainly be tied to areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs will range from the 10s to upper 20s. Temperatures will drop considerably as an Arctic air mass filters in Sun night. Lows expected to range from around 0F to around 10F, but a persistent NW breeze will result in wind chills or feels-like temperatures as cold as -15F in higher terrain areas and -5F to +5F in lower elevations. Some mountain areas could get close to Cold Weather Advisory. Will continue to monitor trends. With the NW flow, any lake effect snow should be limited to central NY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message: - Cold temperatures persist through early next week, with a warmup expected mid to late week. - A storm system may bring widespread precipitation, including mainly rain, later next week. Discussion: A cold air mass will remain entrenched across the region through early next week, resulting in below normal temperature continuing. The next chance of snow showers arrives late Mon P.M. into Mon night, as another disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes tracks SE across our area. Will mention scattered snow showers for most, but more widespread activity expected west of the Hudson Valley due to lake effect/upslope enhancement. Some spots in the W. Adirondacks could get 1-2" of snow, with < 1" elsewhere. Some brief lake effect may occur behind this system into early Tue, then dry conditions take hold with surface ridging moving in, although it will remain cold. A more zonal flow regime aloft develops by Wed, with a developing SW flow expected to result in milder temperatures at least getting back to normal levels Wed afternoon (lower 30s to lower 40s). Even warmer temperatures could occur on Thu as southerly flow strengthens ahead of a potentially strong cold front approaching from the west. NBM maintaining highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, which seems reasonable at this time. Precip chances also rise considerably Thu into Thu night. At this time temperatures look warm enough for rain at lower elevations, but there could be some sort of wintry mix or snow in some higher terrain areas. Will mention rain/snow for now due to uncertainty and refine forecast details as we get closer. Temperatures look to cool back down by Fri in wake of the cold front. Depending on eventual strength of winds aloft, winds could get quite gusty in the westerly cold advection regime. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z/Sun...A period of snow showers this afternoon remains focused near and just north of I-90 which can lead to MVFR cigs/vsby at GFL, ALB and PSF through 21 UTC. POU has dropped to MVFR cigs and will likely remain low through the same time period. Then, snow showers should diminish and we improve back to VFR. However, a clipper passing through the mid-Atlantic will result in a widespread period of snow for POU and PSF starting 02 to 05 UTC resulting in IFR and MVFR cigs/vis at POU and PSF, respectively. Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible at PSF should a steadier period of snow develop mainly from 05 - 09 UTC so included a TEMPO group. Higher confidence for a persistent period of IFR conditions at POU where snow will likely be steadier. ALB and especially GFL will likely be just north of the steadiest snow so continue to show VFR conditions overnight. However, should the steady snow extend further north than current expectations, ALB could see a brief period of MVFR vis/cigs mainly 05 - 09 UTC tonight. Widespread snow exits from northwest to southeast by 11 to 14 UTC but lingering snow showers and low cigs looks to continue at PSF through the end of the TAF period. POU should improve back to VFR once the snow exits. Winds will become northwesterly by 14-15 UTC with sustained winds 5-10kts and gusts up to 20kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...31 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...31 ####018003495#### FXUS64 KSJT 131819 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1219 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be well-above normal this afternoon. - Stronger Cold frontal passage tonight with gusty winds and colder temperatures Sunday. - Another week of warm weather will follow cool temperatures on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 124 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Low clouds with patchy areas of fog, from Junction to Mason to San Saba early this morning, were advecting northwestward into a dissipating cold front. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 AM for the I-10 corridor and NW Hill Country, and depending on the extent of the fog, may need to add Mcculloch and San Saba counties. Fog should dissipate mid morning. Highs are expected in the lower to mid 70s. A strong cold front will move in tonight. North winds initially won't be strong, but become breezy a few hours after passage. Winds at Abilene for example will shift north at 5 to 10 mph around 7 PM, then become breezy 15 to 25 mph after 10 PM. Breezy north winds continue Sunday morning, with wind chills in the teens and 20s in the Big Country Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 After a sharp, but brief cool-down on Sunday and a cold morning Monday, we will rebound back up into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area Monday afternoon. Through the middle of the week, a weak upper level trough will move across the area, potentially resulting in some mid and upper level clouds. However, no precipitation is expected with this feature. And at the surface, flow will remain southerly, so temperatures are expected to warm through mid-week. A strong trough will move through the central plains region later in the week, pushing a weak cold front through west central Texas Thursday, but temperatures will remain above normal. Southerly winds will quickly return Friday into Saturday, with highs approaching 80 degrees by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Improving conditions late this morning as the fog and low clouds break up and dissipate. Will use the latest satellite imagery to determine the exact timing but all areas should be VFR by mid afternoon. Stronger cold front still set to move across the area late tonight and bring gusty north winds in its wake. Gusts at or above 25 kts likely at most locations. Models have their differences in cloud cover behind the front, generally on how low the cigs are and how long they persist. Will lean towards a NAM solution on much of this simply because it usually does better in these situations, but fully expect updates to be needed as additional data comes in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 29 43 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 34 44 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 36 46 32 63 / 20 0 0 0 Brownwood 31 43 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 29 42 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 36 43 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 35 43 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07 ####018005727#### FXUS61 KBGM 131821 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 121 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly pushes through the region tonight with light snow across northeast Pennsylvania and into the Central NY. A cold Canadian air moves in behind the front with lake effect snow showers Sunday through Monday. A weak wave of low pressure drops out of Canada on Monday evening with with more widespread snow showers. Warm conditions develop by midweek with chances for rain increasing on Thursday with an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will slowly push through the region later this evening through tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary to our south tonight and exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday morning. There will be an area of deep layer lift extending into NE PA and possibly as far north as the Southern Tier. Latest model runs show the upper trough is tilting a little more neutral and nice jet streak will be positioned around or just south and east of the Poconos Region which is in the vicinity of the right entrance of this jet streak, which will enhance vertical ascent than with just the shortwave and front itself. Thus, the strong diffluence aloft will help extend the precipitation shield further northward, so QPF amounts have been bumped slightly with this update. This brings snowfall totals close to advisory criteria across the Poconos, but widespread amounts across the area should average 1-2 inches with possibly only a few localized amounts to 3" possible. It should also be noted the forecast model soundings should fairly weak omega through the DGZ, so decided to bump down snow ratio amounts from previous forecast, this is why the increase in QPF did not push snowfall amounts over the advisory threshold. Being this event is over the weekend, it was decided to not issue an advisory because amounts will mostly be below 3 inches, and also because the impacts will be less due to it not being a week day. Strong cold air advection will take hold behind the exiting frontal system on Sunday. Lake effect snow develops under the NW flow region. Several inches in accumulation will be possible from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening across the Finger Lakes Region and portions of central NY. However, at this time it doesn't appear there will be organization of any particular band of snow and these lake effect showers should be more cellular in nature, so likely no winter weather advisory will be needed. Finally, temperatures Sunday night into Monday will be colder than what NBM was advertising, so blended in some of the NBM 25th percentile for overnight lows. Temperatures will likely drop below zero in some of the colder spots across the north and with winds still gusting 15 to 20 mph overnight, it is possible that a cold weather advisory may be needed. At this time, confidence on the coverage of apparent temperature below the advisory threshold is uncertain, and after discussing with surrounding offices, it was decided to hold off on any cold weather headlines for now and will take another look at this with the next forecast update. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Lake effect snow showers will continue Monday. A shortwave is expected to track across Ontario on Monday and into western NY late in the day, with more light snow likely developing during the afternoon and evening. Moisture with this clipper system appears limited outside of lake effect regions, however, an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall remains possible by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The pattern begins to transition on Tuesday as flow becomes more zonal with a developing southwesterly component. This shift will support relief from the cold with a warming trend through the end of the week. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the zonal flow will periodically move through the region. Precipitation type during this period will be rain or snow earlier in the week. However, Thursday is looking very warm out ahead of a strong cold front, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s. With the warm air in place, the initial phase of this system is expected to bring rain showers, and possibly even some gusty showers as LLJ increases to near 70 knots at 850 mb. Behind the cold front, precipitation will transition to snow by Friday morning. Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain active through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal system will push through the region tonight with snow across NE PA and into Central NY. The snow may bring IFR restrictions at times during the overnight hours. Snow exits NE PA tomorrow morning, however, lake effect snow will develop behind the front. This could then bring snow showers across portions of Central NY and associated restrictions. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of lake effect snow showers. Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. Thursday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and minor restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MPK NEAR TERM...ES/MPK SHORT TERM...ES/MPK LONG TERM...ES/MPK AVIATION...MPK