####018004729#### FXUS62 KMFL 251706 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 106 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Models show high pressure/mid level ridging dominating the weather pattern across the region. The ridge gradually shifts eastward through the weekend with overall subsidence and dry conditions prevailing. Afternoon temperatures will again range from the lower 80s near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over interior areas. An isolated shower or two can't be totally ruled out over the interior this afternoon, mainly along sea breeze boundaries, but chances remain very low. Given the light flow and dry airmass, another seasonably cool night can be expected tonight with lows generally in the 60s. Reinforcing high pressure is seen in models arriving on Friday, which will increase pressure gradients across Soflo. This will result in increasing easterly winds and thus a weakening of the Gulf breeze circulation. Temperatures will remain similar over the east coast (although dewpoints will slightly increase), but slightly increase over the western half of the area, but should remain seasonable overall. Given the continued influence of mid-lvl ridging, rainfall is once again not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Mid-lvl ridging will establish itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, displacing the storm track well north of the area. At the surface (initially strong) high pressure over the western Atlantic will be the main feature of interest supporting breezy easterly winds through the period, although the high will gradually be weakening into next week. Generally dry conditions will prevail given the influence of the ridge, although some shallow coastal convergence generated showers can't be ruled out over the east coast and Atlantic waters. Temperatures will be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with the warmest highs (generally upper 80s) over the Interior/west coast with cooler highs (generally low to mid 80s) over the east coast. The reverse will be true with overnight lows with milder readings (low 70s) over the east coast and 60s over the Interior/west coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR continues at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Easterly winds become generally light tonight, then becoming breezy with periods of gusts in the 20-23kt range Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Current benign boating conditions will continue tonight as the moderate easterly winds become light and variable. Then on Friday, winds will increase and remain breezy through the weekend as strong high pressure north of the area builds southward. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the Palm Beach coastline, and it is expected to expand into the rest of the Atlantic beaches this afternoon and through the weekend as easterly flow increases. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week over portions of Interior and SW Florida as generally easterly flow continues to prevail. Minimum RHs below 40% can be expected over these portions of the area through Friday, with localized values approaching 35% this afternoon. Although fuels will remain dry (the Significant Fire Potential Forecast remains in the orange category), winds should remain below fire weather headline criteria through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 70 82 73 81 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 65 83 69 82 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 68 83 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 70 82 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 70 80 72 80 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 70 81 72 81 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 69 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 68 81 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 67 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...17 ####018004646#### FXUS63 KILX 251708 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Waves of showers and storms will be seen Friday through Sunday. Storms could be severe at times and also bring heavy rainfall. - Temperatures will climb to near 80 this weekend, with extended outlooks favoring warmer than normal conditions continuing through next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Central Illinois continues to be influenced by ridging extending from high pressure over the lower Great Lakes. Some passing mid and high clouds will be in place today. Temps are on track to warm into the lower to mid 60s. Deubelbeiss && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Light east winds under surface ridging and mostly clear skies has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s early this morning. Cirrus tied to an upper shortwave diving south through Minnesota will spread into the area today, but otherwise dry and somewhat cooler than normal conditions will prevail. A more active weather pattern is in the works for later this week into the weekend as a pair of low pressure systems lift through the Plains states and Midwest. The first will be Friday into Saturday with the second Saturday night into Sunday night. The aforementioned upper ridge will shift into the eastern US and amplify, leaving southwest flow positioned overhead here locally. Temperatures will quickly warm through the weekend, approaching 80 degrees by Saturday. A wide open Gulf will advect higher dewpoints northward through the weekend, approaching 60 on Friday and middle 60s Saturday. A warm front will lift north through the area on Friday, with strong WAA sparking the develop of showers and storms Friday morning. Limited instability with the morning activity should keep the severe threat minimal. The surface low will enter Nebraska Friday evening as the negatively tilted upper wave catches up to it. As the LLJ ramps up Friday evening, convection will blossom along and ahead of a dryline boundary/front near the Kansas/Missouri border where the better instability will be. The LLJ and instability gradient will gradually spill into Illinois late Friday night, allowing storm activity to continue as it approaches. A few severe storms could occur during this time. Morning shower and storm activity could linger into Saturday morning as the surface low enters the Upper Mississippi Valley. A stationary front will stretch south of there into the central Plains with the second surface low spinning up near the Oklahoma panhandle. This second system will take a similar track as the first, but just a bit further east. The latest guidance shows us quickly destabilizing by the afternoon hours with a 50-70% chance for SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg west of I-55 and similar probabilities for bulk shear > 30 kts in that same area. Lack of forcing will likely keep most of the storm activity west of here throughout the day until the low pushes the stationary/cold front into western parts of our area later Saturday night. The threat for severe storms also exists Saturday night, but another concern is the threat for heavy rainfall due to training of storms through Sunday morning. The cold front will track slowly through the area Sunday into Sunday night, bringing yet another day of potential storm activity. Forcing will be the strongest on Sunday with the front in the vicinity, but lingering convection from the night prior could prevent us from fully destabilizing. Total precipitation through the weekend looks to range from 1 to 2 inches, though areas west of I-55 could see amounts higher than that. Temperatures stay mild through the new week with the Climate Prediction Center showing above normal temperatures sticking around through at least next weekend. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide a light east/southeast breeze and VFR conditions through most of the period. A warm front will approach the terminals Friday afternoon with showers and a few storms reaching the western sites late in the period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will also accompany the warm front late. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$