####018008440#### FXUS61 KALY 060550 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 150 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain cloudy and damp overnight, with some patchy drizzle or isolated showers possible. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 100 AM EDT, showers have ended across the region, with overcast skies remaining. Warm front has reached western NY, with cold front approaching from SW Ontario/Lake Erie region. These fronts should merge into a weak occluded front overnight, and as it approaches from the west, isolated to scattered showers should redevelop across the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak. Otherwise, skies should remain overcast, and with a light southeast to south wind persisting, temps will hold steady, or even rise slightly from current levels through daybreak. Despite a very moist boundary layer, the persistent wind and cloud cover may tend to limit fog formation in many areas. Should winds decrease and/or any small breaks in the clouds develop, then patchy/areas of fog could quickly develop, and will monitor trends closely. .PREV DISCUSSION [0745 PM EDT]...A slow moving frontal boundary is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south- southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the mid Hudson Valley northeast through the eastern Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the the early evening hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward into New England. As the steadiest rain starts to exit off to the east this evening, precip will start to become more showery in nature, thanks to the best isentropic lift shifting northeast of the area. Still, additional showers are expected for late this evening and into the overnight, as our area will be still downstream of the slow moving frontal boundary to the west, as the moist southerly low level flow, aided by the cyclonic flow aloft, will continue to allow for additional showers. In addition, some patchy fog may start to develop, especially for sheltered areas for the overnight hours. In total, some areas will have seen over an inch of rain in total (especially within the Capital Region, parts of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks), although no hydro impacts expected to recent dry weather and rainfall rates being manageable. Temps have been steady all day in the mid 40s to low 50s. These temps will continue into the overnight, with not much variation expected due to the widespread cloud cover. Although winds have been gusty from the south through the day, they will gradually start to come down through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface front will finally be crossing the area from west to east during the day on Monday. A few additional spotty showers can't be ruled out with the front (mainly eastern and southern areas), but moisture will become limited, as the high PWAT air will have shifted off to the east. While all areas will start the day cloudy, increasing sun is expected by afternoon as the front crosses through and winds switch to the west. It may take until later in the day for the sun to finally break out for southeastern areas. Temps should rise fairly quickly once the sun breaks out, as warm temps should still allow for a mild afternoon, with highs in valley areas back into the low to mid 70s (60s for the high terrain). Better clearing is expected for Monday night with quiet weather. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s with the fairly clear skies and light winds thanks to nearby surface high pressure. A warm and sunny day in expected on Tuesday thanks to high pressure. With plenty of sun expected and 850 hpa temps of +5 to +8 C, highs should reach into the 70s once again for many valley areas. While Tuesday evening will start off dry, clouds will be increasing and a threat for showers will arrive by the late night hours, as the next shortwave starts to approach from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period. Area of low pressure will be tracking close to the area on Wednesday. Recent model runs have speed the timing of this feature up slightly, so the best chance of rain may be from Tuesday night into the first half of the day on Wednesday. Some instability may still be present (especially southern areas), so can't rule out some thunder, but still unclear if there will be a threat for stronger storms, especially considering the earlier timing of this system. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and more humid for Wednesday with the showers and possible t-storms. Temps still look to reach the 60s and 70s. There should be a brief dry stretch behind this initial system, so much of Wed night looks dry into start of Thursday, but another system will be impacting the region for the late week. Have gone with high chc to likely POPs for Thurs/Fri as another slow moving shortwave moves across the area with some additional showers. Instability looks lower than Wednesday, but a stray rumble can't be ruled out. Highs look mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s for Thursday into Friday. Over the weekend, there are some differences in the models regarding the next approaching storm trough. There could be a period of ridging allowing for some dry and quiet weather before another round of showers heads towards the area. The timing is still uncertain, so will keep the chance for showers for both Saturday and Sunday, although it's possible some dry weather could occur. Temps could be a little below normal with highs in the lower 60s, although it will depend on the exact coverage of clouds/sun. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...A warm front remains south of the forecast area over PA and NJ. The showers/stratiform rain has ended but plenty of low IFR/low MVFR stratus and patchy MVFR mist remains over KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. IFR cigs will continue at KALB/KGFL/KPSF with some periods of LIFR cigs prior to 14Z/TUE. Some patchy IFR mist may also form. We expect some patchy drizzle to develop near KPOU with the cigs falling into the IFR range prior to 10Z/TUE. Widespread IFR cigs will likely continue at all the TAF sites through 12Z/TUE and persist until 15Z-18Z/TUE with some increase to MVFR cigs in the 1.0-2.5 kft AGL range. An isolated shower can not be ruled out with the approaching cold front. Drier air in the wake of a cold front moves in during the mid to late afternoon and expect conditions to rise to VFR levels between 20Z/TUE and 00Z/WED with the skies become partly cloudy to clear. The winds will be light from the south at 5 KT or less to calm this morning. They will increase from the south to southwest at less than 10 KT in the late morning into the early pm and then veer to the west to northwest at 5-10 KT in the mid pm into the early evening. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/Picard SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Wasula ####018007106#### FXUS61 KCLE 060550 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 150 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM Update... All showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the area leaving dry, but cloudy conditions across the CWA. These conditions will continue overnight with patchy fog still possible in far NE OH and NW PA. Earlier this evening, NW PA had visibilities drop to less than 1/4SM briefly, but they have since recovered to have visibilities of 4SM. This general area will need to be monitored for any headline potential. Motorists should use caution overnight and during the Monday morning commute as visibilities may quickly be reduced. 630 PM Update... With the evening update, there are a couple hazards across the area worth keeping an eye on. The first are the few isolated thunderstorms that continue to linger in the Mahoning Valley, but these will continue to move east out of the CWA over the next few hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. The second hazard is the development of fog along the Ashtabula and Erie County lakeshore zones that has resulted in visibilities dropping as low as 1/2SM. Will keep an eye on conditions, but confidence is growing that far NE OH and NW PA will experience fog development overnight as winds weaken, which may warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. The only question that lingers is if temperatures will cool enough due to widespread cloud cover that is expected. Aside from these features, the bulk of the forecast is unchanged with this update. Previous Discussion... A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any stronger storm. High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight temps. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the location of the stalled frontal boundary. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main surface low will finally track east across the north half of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under generally mostly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Fog has developed in portions of far NE OH at this hour at YNG where rain fell previously yesterday afternoon. Also have some lingering low level MVFR stratus across as well, but for the most part, drier is air is beginning to move in from the north as high pressure builds into the region. Expect all of the restrictions currently being observed to become VFR after 15Z or so once the low level moisture exits to the south. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another system. && .MARINE... A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds, and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...FZ AVIATION...26 MARINE...FZ ####018004363#### FXUS64 KLZK 060551 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1251 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Showers and storms will linger across the area through the evening hours before activity starts to exit in the wake of the H500 wave lifting to the northeast. Some FG development is possible around daybreak. Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with highs climbing above 80 F in many locations. Little to no precip is expected earlier in the day and if the sun makes an appearance, it will feel quite uncomfortable outside given recent rain and Td values around 70 F. A weak disturbance in the SW flow aloft will help provide increased chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. More widespread severe activity is expected to be focused across portions of OK/KS from Monday afternoon through the evening hours. This activity will likely persist in intensity eastward through the overnight hours and could provide some severe potential early Tuesday morning across W/NW parts of the state. Behind the storms, the front will sink south toward Arkansas. Additional thunderstorms could develop throughout the day Tuesday ahead of the front as well as along any lingering boundaries in place over the area. POPs on Tuesday are highest during the morning hours with lower POPs in place later in the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to move out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This storm system will drag a cold front across the state bringing the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be somewhat of a two prong event. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The main event will come Wednesday evening and night as the front moves into the state. Instability and wind shear will be much higher on Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas. Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 SHRA/TSRA activity was departing the state to the E with skies beginning to clear in its wake from the S and SW. Expecting a low-level stratus deck to develop in addition to FG where clearing takes place. Widespread IFR/LIFR conds are expected overnight with conds improving between 14z/16z on Mon. Winds will be Srly at around 10-15 knts on Mon with conds improving to MVFR/VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 69 86 68 / 30 60 30 20 Camden AR 83 68 87 69 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 80 64 83 62 / 20 70 10 10 Hot Springs AR 82 67 85 67 / 40 50 10 20 Little Rock AR 84 70 87 71 / 40 50 20 20 Monticello AR 84 71 88 72 / 30 20 20 10 Mount Ida AR 81 67 85 67 / 50 50 20 20 Mountain Home AR 81 65 84 63 / 30 60 20 10 Newport AR 82 69 84 68 / 30 50 30 30 Pine Bluff AR 84 70 87 70 / 30 30 20 20 Russellville AR 83 67 86 66 / 30 60 10 20 Searcy AR 83 68 85 67 / 30 50 20 20 Stuttgart AR 83 70 85 71 / 30 40 30 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...70 ####018007223#### FXUS61 KAKQ 060551 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 805 PM EDT Sunday... Shower activity continues to diminish this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. However, light showers will continue to be possible through tonight and into early Mon morning (along the coast). CAMs are doing a poor job resolving the current convection and therefore have lower than normal confidence in the PoP forecast tonight. That being said, the greatest chance for redeveloping showers is across S portions of the FA S of US-460 due to a shortwave lingering across NC overnight. These showers gradually move E overnight with a decrease in coverage expected as time progresses. Temps as of 750 PM ranged from the upper 60s to around 70F for most. Given widespread cloud cover and WAA, expect lows to remain mild in the low-mid 60s for most. Additionally, given the recent rainfall today, patchy to widespread fog is expected to develop inland (mainly after midnight) with lowest VIS across the Piedmont. Locally dense fog is possible. A secondary area of fog is possible across the Atlantic side of the MD Eastern Shore overnight as CAMs show the potential for marine layer fog to move onshore. Any fog should burn off by mid morning Mon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday through Wednesday - A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Warm and humid conditions will continue for Wed into Thu evening, then drier air and closer to normal temps will return for Fri through Sun. Stronger 500 mb flow combined with shortwave energy/sfc trough will likely result in the potential for strong or severe storms Thu into Thu evening. A cold front and upper trough will then push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing more showers and possibly tstms. Except for slight or small chances for showers Sat through Sun, near or slightly below normal temps and more comfortable humidity will prevail. Highs will range through the 80s Thu, in the mid to upper 70s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat and Sun. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Monday... Shower activity continues to continues to decrease in coverage and intensity. However, light showers will continue to be possible through the rest of tonight and into the early morning (along the coast) at all terminals. BKN/OVC sky cover lingers through Mon night with CIGs initially VFR/MVFR (intermittent IFR at RIC). CIGs gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR/LIFR from W to E through the rest of the night with IFR CIGs at SBY/RIC/PHF likely before sunrise. RIC is starting to see some IFR CIGs already, but SBY and ORF should hold off until ~8-10z. CIGs improve to MVFR by mid- late morning and to VFR Mon afternoon. Additionally, given the rain today, patchy to widespread fog is expected to develop inland early this morning with IFR/MVFR VIS. The lowest VIS is expected to be across the Piedmont, however, it may reach as far as RIC. Any fog quickly lifts by Mon morning. More rounds of scattered showers and storms are likely Mon afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight (S/SE), becoming SW/SSW 5-10 kt Mon (highest along the coast). Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... 1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late tonight/early Monday for minor flooding. Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24 hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ075>078. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...AM/RMM MARINE...AJZ/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018005765#### FXUS65 KPSR 060551 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1050 PM MST Sun May 5 2024 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... A dry weather system currently moving just north of the region will promote breezy to windy conditions along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures today. The weather pattern heading into the upcoming week will feature seasonably dry conditions and temperatures gradually rebounding to near normal range as well as breezy conditions each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor satellite imagery depicts a potent upper-level low pressure system moving across the northern Great Basin with its base extending into the Desert Southwest. This is leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient and thus enhanced winds through this afternoon into the early evening hours. Peak wind gusts upwards of 30 to 35 mph are likely across most of the lower desert communities, with localized gusts upwards of 40-45 mph across portions of southeast CA, especially Imperial County, as well as the higher terrain areas to the north and east of Phoenix. The strong winds will result in some elevated fire weather concerns as well as areas of blowing dust, especially across the western deserts. In addition to the gusty winds, high temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably cooler with highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s across the western deserts to mid to upper 80s across the south- central AZ lower deserts, including the Phoenix metro area. The upper-level low pressure system by Monday will have quickly moved east-northeastward into the Plains states. Winds will be noticeably lighter compared to today and temperatures will be noticeably warmer across the western deserts with highs rebounding in the middle 80s while remaining steady state across the south- central AZ lower deserts in the mid to upper 80s. The weather pattern heading through the middle of the week will feature a broad trough extending from the Plains states through the Pacific northwest with the southern fringes clipping the Desert Southwest. Under this pattern, our region will be situated in mostly zonal flow with temperatures only gradually rising into the lower 90s while at the same time the flow aloft will be strong enough to produce breezy conditions with afternoon and early evening gusts in excess of 20-25 mph. Both the deterministic and ensemble model suite by the latter half of the week are indicating that as an upper-level ridge begins to build near the Pacific northwest coast, a piece of energy from the aforementioned trough is expected to break off and retrograde close to our region heading into Thursday and Friday. Not much in the way of sensible weather impacts are expected from this feature other than continuing the breezy conditions as well keep the upper-level heights suppressed to maintain temperatures from rising even further. Eventually, as the upper-level ridge axis builds further east and displaces the shortwave trough eastward sometime next weekend, heights aloft will rise accordingly. This will lead to temperatures rising further, with latest NBM guidance showing widespread highs in the upper 90s across the lower deserts with a 20- 40% of approaching 100 degrees. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Westerly winds prevailing well into the overnight hours will be the greatest weather issue under clear skies. Forecast confidence is very good that winds will continue to weaken with a west component persisting much later into the overnight than is typical. Some locations (such as KPHX) potentially may never truly switch to the traditional morning easterly wind forcing runway configurations to remain the same throughout the period. Regardless, widespread westerly winds will prevail over the entire metro again by late morning with only limited afternoon gusts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns should exist through Monday evening under clear skies. Any lingering wind gusts should quickly weaken overnight with trends in directions veering to a more N/NW direction. Wind speeds should weaken even further during the day with moderate confidence of becoming more variable in direction by the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system moving just to the north of the region today will bring breezy to windy conditions areawide. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are likely in many areas this afternoon with upwards of 40-45 mph possible across portions of southeast California and over the high terrain north and east of Phoenix. The strong winds and dry conditions with humidities as low as 20% today could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Lighter winds are expected by Monday with MinRHs lowering to around 10%, with overnight recoveries of 20-50%. Weak high pressure will then remain over the region through much of the coming week as temperatures return to slightly above normal by late week. Seasonably dry conditions are expected this week with MinRHs dropping to around 10% each day starting Monday. Winds this week will be fairly light most days, except for Tuesday and Wednesday when winds will be more elevated with afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph in some areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lojero AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman ####018004377#### FXUS61 KILN 060551 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region through at least midweek, leading to periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Drier air will return by the end of the week as below normal temperatures settle in for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Arching band of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting up the Ohio Valley in advance of a well developed short wave will push into northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and the Cincinnati metro before daybreak Monday. Otherwise, there will be thickening cloud cover through the overnight. Forecast lows look reasonable ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A pivoting axis of SHRA/TSRA will overspread the srn 2/3 of the ILN FA during the daytime Monday, with the greatest coverage focusing S of I-70. The front will also pivot back N, allowing for richer LL moisture to expand back N, with PWATs once again exceeding 1.5 inches (175% of seasonal norms). This, combined with slowing/erratic cell motions (owing to a developing W-E oriented LL convergence zone with stretching along it), may once again create isolated heavy rain/flooding concerns, especially in a tier or two of counties either side of the OH Rvr. Have added mention in the HWO for the areas of greatest potential for flooding concerns Monday afternoon/evening. With quite a bit of cloud cover and precipitation, forecast highs were trimmed several degrees, with highs generally in the lower/mid 70s and sfc DPs nudging back into the mid 60s for most spots. SHRA/TSRA activity should become more ISO in coverage toward the evening, but may not shut off completely through Monday night as the weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to the N. An unseasonably warm night is on tap for Monday as lows only dip into the lower/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A persistent southwest flow aloft will allow deep moisture advection through much of the period. Coupled with a parade of disturbances, the moisture advection will lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, producing the chance for hazardous weather during parts of the long term. For Tuesday, thunderstorms will be triggered by a couple of disturbances settling into the Ohio Valley. Ample instability will allow the deep convection, which will be organized by a potent mid level wind flow. Downbursts will be favored by dry air in the mid levels, suggesting a threat for severe thunderstorms. After a relative lull Tuesday night to early Wednesday, more strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night when a more potent disturbance triggers a surface low tracking to the Great Lakes. For Thursday through Sunday, while stronger disturbances may allow the bulk of severe weather to shift south and east, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day in persistent moisture and instability. Warm weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Cooler air working in on a northwesterly breeze will result in highs mainly in the 60s for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Increasing deep moisture along with coverage of showers will lower ceilings and visibility starting around daybreak at the Cincinnati terminals, with an expansion north through the morning hours. Some guidance lowers ceilings into the IFR range by late afternoon... though consensus (in addition to this TAF update) holds off until tonight. This solution is favored by climatology as well. There is also a possibility that visibility lowers below three miles for brief periods during increased shower intensity. Winds will generally be out of the east at less than 10 knots through the period. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION... ####018006000#### FXUS66 KMTR 060553 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1053 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 Conditions clearing out today in the wake of yesterday's front. Cool weather to kick off the week, but a notable warm up is on the way for the latter half of the week into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024 The inherited forecast appears to be in good shape with no changes needed to the forecast. Across land areas, a thin veil of cirrus will invade from the northwest, with some pockets of marine stratus likely to slip ashore across coastal Marin and Sonoma counties after midnight. While recent rainfall and relatively clearer skies would normally support a radiation fog potential, the increased 925mb flow of 15 to 20 knots will likely curtail this threat-- though it cannot be completely discounted where low level winds subside and/or near interior rivers/reservoirs/lakes. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 Visible satellite showing ample clearing across much of the area in the wake of the cold front yesterday. Some isolated cumulus continue to form over complex terrain areas as a result of daytime heating and a hint of lingering low level instability. However, don't expect much in the way of additional precip in these areas. There is still a bit of a hindrance in the form of some capping stability in the low to mid levels. Some areas in the highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mtns can't rule out a sprinkle or two this afternoon, but anything outside of that seems to be a very low chance. The weather remains quiet into Monday with clear and dry conditions. Overnight temperatures into Monday morning will be on the chilly side once again, similar to last night, but we will warm up from here. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 Beyond Monday, the pattern shifts to become dominated by a longwave ridge settling in over the Western US. The region will remain dry through the rest of the week with temperatures gradually heating up into the weekend. As it stands, Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest as afternoon highs are forecast to rise into the mid-80s across inland valleys and 70s elsewhere. Once again, with temps above seasonal averages by the end of the week and coming off the heels of an anomalously cold system, it is important to remind ourselves that these quick changes in temperatures can still result in heat-related illness, even with highs in the 80s. As a result, much of our area below about 3500 feet and off the immediate coast will be under a minor Heat Risk Wednesday into the weekend. This primarily affects individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective means of cooling or adequate hydration. In the longer term, any chance for rain is dismal as we inch closer to our typical summertime pattern, and a there is a slight chance that above normal temperatures persist into the following week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will become light overnight before building again tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected at all terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. These conditions will prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected at the terminal tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with breezy southwesterly flow at both terminals. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will become light and variable overnight before becoming breezy out of the northwest tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected at both terminals. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1052 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024 Moderate northwesterly winds tonight into Monday. Dry weather prevails through the forecast period as high pressure builds by Monday night and moves eastward. Beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday, winds will become more northerly and strengthen to gale force winds, mostly over the outer waters. Significant wave heights will build beginning Tuesday with wave heights between 12 to 15 feet by mid-week. The combination of strong winds and elevated seas will pose hazardous conditions from Tuesday through the end of the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Sarment/SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea