####018005321#### FXUS64 KLZK 241139 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 639 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A weak frontal bndry was aligned acrs north AR early this mrng, with a few light showers noted along it. Predawn temps were in the 50s to the north of the front, with 60s noted elsewhere. Seeing locally dense fog form over the far north, mainly in the vcnty of the area lakes and rivers. Model solutions this mrng are in overall good agreement, taking the fnt into southwest AR later today and tngt before stalling out. Rain chcs today wl be confined mainly to locations along and south of the front, albeit mainly in the 20-30% range. The aforementioned front wl eventually return to the north as a warm fnt Thu into Thu night in response to a deepening low pres system over the eastern Rockies. Convection wl incrs in coverage Thu as a weak upper SWT apchs fm the west. The highest rain chcs (60-80%) wl be focused along and north of the warm fnt. Cannot rule out a few strong storms, but the main concern wl be the potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some localized flooding. The bndry is expected to lift north of AR Thu ngt, with warm and humid conds returning to the FA. The focus for any lingering convection wl be acrs parts of north and western AR by early Fri mrng. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont beyond this fcst period. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will overshadow the entire period of Friday through Tuesday. In the upper lvls, a series of closed lows and SWTs will approach the region. In tandem at the sfc, a series of low pressure systems will remain in the Central Plains region of the CONUS with their attendant southward extending cold front and dryline in cohesion with a warm front that will lift through the region and allow for a large warm sector to open up across the Southern Plains into the Mid-South regions of the CONUS. At the current time, a slight risk of severe weather will be possible across portions of Arkansas on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as all modes of severe weather will be possible. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the CWA through Monday when the trof axis finally pushes over the Mid-South region of the CONUS and the sfc cold front finally moves across the state of Arkansas and in the wake of the cold front a sfc high pressure will move into the region of the Ohio River Valley of the CONUS by Tuesday bringing an end to the unsettled period of weather across Arkansas and the CWA. A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of excessive rainfall over the period of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state and CWA. The threat itself needs to be treated in the same capacity of the threat of the traditional all modes of severe weather associated with a few tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and large hail. Details will continue to become more clear in the next 12 to 24 hours. However, confidence continues to build that severe weather will be likely across portions of the state and CWA on Friday and Saturday with more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday along with the threat of flash flooding, especially in locations vulnerable to flooding. Temperatures over this period will be slightly above normal with respect to both low and high temperatures over this period compared to climatological normals. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Poorly defined frontal bndry was situated acrs central AR this mrng, with mainly VFR ceilings noted over much of the FA. Localized IFR conds ovr north AR due to patchy dense fog, but conds wl improve in the next few hrs. The front wl cont to sag to the south before stalling out later today. The bndry is expected to lift back north tngt as a warm fnt. CAMS are showing some sctd showers/few storms forming along and north of the bndry late today and tngt. Included PROB30 groups at some sites, but confidence rmns low regarding areal coverage attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 54 64 61 / 10 50 80 20 Camden AR 76 61 80 65 / 30 20 20 0 Harrison AR 72 53 62 58 / 10 70 80 40 Hot Springs AR 77 58 72 65 / 30 50 60 10 Little Rock AR 77 59 72 65 / 20 50 70 10 Monticello AR 77 61 79 67 / 30 20 30 0 Mount Ida AR 76 58 73 65 / 40 60 60 10 Mountain Home AR 73 53 62 58 / 10 50 80 40 Newport AR 74 55 66 61 / 0 30 70 20 Pine Bluff AR 77 59 75 65 / 20 40 50 0 Russellville AR 77 56 67 62 / 20 60 70 20 Searcy AR 75 54 67 61 / 10 50 80 10 Stuttgart AR 77 59 70 66 / 10 40 60 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...44 ####018006925#### FXUS63 KBIS 241140 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures today and Thursday, with widespread highs in the 70s on Thursday. - Strong southeast winds are likely across the south and central on Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-90%) Thursday evening through Friday, with the highest probabilities across the southern half of the state. - Cooler temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, with low to medium chances of rain showers. The highest chances are across the south. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Quiet weather continues this morning, with many locations across the south and central seeing current temps in the mid 20s with calm winds. Satellite imagery shows some high clouds beginning to drift in from Montana, with more widespread cloud cover upstream associated with an impulse embedded in mean zonal flow. No major changes needed with this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 This morning, a shallow ridge aloft was beginning to build over the northern Rockies, while at the surface a broad high pressure was centered to our east across Ontario into the Great Lakes region. Quiet weather will continue through the morning, with light winds, clear skies, and temperatures in our normal cool spots dropping into the mid to upper 20s. Expecting warmer temperatures today, with highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Southeasterly return flow will be increasing, with breezy winds forecast across the southwest and south central. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwest and south central North Dakota this afternoon, with minimum relative humidity in the lower to mid 20 percent range and breezy southeasterly winds. Humidity values are forecast to be lower across northern North Dakota, but winds will be lighter in this area. A mid-level wave moving through midday will bring an increase in cloud cover, but a dry near-surface layer will prevent any precipitation. High-res guidance is beginning to pick up on another weak wave moving up from South Dakota tonight, so we are carrying 20% POPs across the southern James River Valley. Thursday is still the primary day to watch for potential strong thunderstorms. As the upper ridge breaks down, a surface low and attendant warm front will be in the vicinity of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Flow aloft is expected to turn southwesterly through the day, with a leading shortwave moving through and increasing precipitation chances through the afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area. Deterministic guidance is still advertising up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE Thursday afternoon and evening as mid-level height falls overspread the area, with modestly steep lapse rates (around 7 degrees C/km). Shear continues to look like the limiting factor in any substantial convective development, with forecast bulk shear only around 20-25 knots in the area of highest instability. CSU machine learning is advertising low probabilities of severe hail to include most of western and parts of south central North Dakota, which is an expansion since the previous run. The latest SPC Day 2 outlook does have a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending across much of western South Dakota, so approaching the southwest corner of our forecast area. Thursday will also be the warmest day of the next week, with widespread highs in the 70s, and wouldn't be surprised if a few spots out west hit 80 degrees. Southeast winds will also be strong across the south and central, with forecast soundings showing 35 to 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Chances for showers and thunderstorms from this initial system don't have a chance to end before another system approaches the area. GEFS and EC ensemble members are starting to agree more on the track of a warm-season Colorado Low progged to move through the region this weekend, with members advertising the low progressing from southwest Nebraska late Thursday night, to southeast South Dakota Friday night, into central Minnesota on Saturday. Blended POPs have increased further with this update, producing the highest chances through the day Friday. Areas from Bowman to Garrison to Harvey and south/east have an 80-95% chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday, with decreasing chances to the northwest. Through Friday night and into Saturday, rain chances very slowly decrease, with the spatial pattern of highest POPs not changing (highest southeast / lowest northwest). During the 24-hour period covering Friday and Friday night, there is a medium chance (40-60%) for at least 0.50" of rain across the south central and southeast, with a low probability of exceeding 1" of rain. While the deep low is circulating to our south, a cold front is forecast to drop south from a separate, weaker low pressure. This will lead to seasonably chilly temperatures this weekend, with highs dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances linger across the south (20-40%) on Saturday as the Colorado Low exits to our east, but a second trough is likely to quickly follow, with ensemble cluster scenarios all advertising this solution. NBM POPs increase on Sunday with higher chances again in the southeast while the northwest is favored to stay mostly dry. Ensemble member MSLP values are not as deep as the first system, with QPF probabilities subsequently lower (only low chances of exceeding 0.50" Sunday and Sunday night). Upper level flow is favored to rebound quickly from these systems, becoming much more zonal to start the work week. NBM temperature percentiles respond accordingly, with a warmup back to near normal highs on Monday with precipitation chances ending early. The active period continues, however, with broad, 20 to 30% POPs returning midweek, although with continued warmer than normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will be turning southerly through the morning, with breezy southeast winds expected across the west and south central through the day. Winds will stay elevated at 10 to 15 knots through the night tonight. High clouds will be increasing through the day before clearing tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones ####018006852#### FXUS65 KGJT 241140 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezing conditions continue today with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and gusty winds 20 to 30 mph creating elevated fire concerns this afternoon. - Precipitation chances increase Thursday with widespread rainshowers expected across the mountains with some light snow showers expected on the higher terrain Thursday night and beyond. - Cooler and unsettled conditions expected through the weekend with an increasing probability of significant high elevation snow accumulations and travel impacts through early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The split flow pattern over the Pacific Coastline will be breaking down over the next 24 hours but for now the southern stream has taken hold of Intermountain West to the Rockies. This has pushed the main plume of moisture to the North of our border as seen in the ALPW plots. Surface dew points indicate some low level moisture has pooled across our northern CWA however and will likely lead to some afternoon build ups and perhaps a few isolated showers with more wind than rainfall expected. The main storm system in southern stream will reach the SoCal coast by this evening move over Vegas by sunrise and then invade our CWA through Thursday brining wetter and cooler conditions back into the picture. Today however looks to be another very warm day with high still running some 10 to 15 degrees above normal in most areas. The current windy and dry period has created large vapor pressure deficits and when combined with another breezy afternoon fire weather concerns remain quite elevated...especially where fuels are susceptible to burning. So again this cannot be stressed enough...in parts of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah outdoor burning will be a high risk venture. A fairly mild night is expected as winds strengthen aloft with the downstream height falls and keep things well mixed. The bulk of the precipitation should hold off until after sunrise on Thursday. However moisture entrained in the stronger flow aloft will likely lead to showers over at least the higher portions of eastern Utah in the early morning hours as ascent increases with the emergence of the jet core around the base of the upstream trough. The core of the ascent then lift across the remainder of the CWA Thursday as the trough arrives and the cooler air aloft helps trigger more convection. Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Thursday as we settle back toward normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The low that moved up through SoCal will open into a wave passing over eastern Colorado by Thursday evening. As the trough moves out onto the Plains, the northerly flow on the backside pulls a cooler airmass down over the region dropping temps aloft about 4C. This instability will keep showers going overnight into Friday morning mostly over the higher terrain of the northern and central Colorado mountains with snow levels around 8500 feet. The flow aloft behind the trough is weak and won't scrub out the moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere that saturated from the showers Thursday and Thursday night. The next trough, the second of the one-two punch, drops in through the Pacific Northwest Friday, cutting off over Utah Friday night and tracking east across the southern areas of the region Saturday before moving out onto the plains Saturday night. This second system is a bit stronger, pulling deeper moisture out of the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest with pwats of 0.6 to 0.7 inches and colder air aloft dropping temps another 4C. This system has a fairly clear cold frontal boundary that passes west to east across the region overnight Friday leading the trough. Look for a round of widespread moderate showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon with snow levels around 9,000 feet ahead of the front as the deeper moisture moves into the region. These storms will continue overnight with the frontal boundary and Saturday as the upper-level low passes overhead. Convective activity will decrease Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves east out over the Plains and ridging starts to build in from the west. Wrap-around moisture and orographics will keep light showers going mostly across the northern and central mountains with thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon with diurnal heating. Skies clear out by Monday as ridging moves into the region. Models are in remarkable agreement through Sunday with these systems and even the ensembles show little dispersion. The one outlier seems to be the GEFS that digs the second trough farther west along the California-Nevada Border and deeper south over southern New Mexico, yet it still show little dispersion among its members. Guidance is bullish on the moisture with this system, especially in the lower valleys though pwats aren't all that impressive. Wouldn't be surprised if QPF drops in these areas when all is said and done, but the MJO does seems to be getting more active over the Pacific and it may be this that guidance is picking up. We'll just have to wait and see. For planning purposes, the higher elevations in the central and northern Colorado mountains could see over a foot of heavy snow between Friday morning and Saturday night with this system that may impact Vail and Rabbit Ears Passes Friday night and Saturday. Much like the system last week, conditions look to be worse to the east of our area in Summit and Grand Counties. Be sure to check for updates on this forecast and prepare accordingly if you'll be travelling in these areas this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions will hold at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours as mainly clear and breezy conditions are expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will drift over far northern Utah and Colorado at times but confidence low on timing and coverage so not placed in this forecast. Afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph can be expected at most TAF sites again this afternoon and early evening. Moisture increases overnight and will be a precursor to expanding showers and flight impacts beyond 12Z on Thursday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT ####018004513#### FXUS63 KPAH 241140 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog across the Quad State early in the day, will burn off quickly after sunrise. - A stormier pattern emerges for the end of the week into the weekend with a warmup expected. The best chance of strong to severe storms is late Sunday into Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Rain that fell across the area last night has led to at least patchy dense fog this morning; however, this should burn off quickly after sunrise. Visibilities may drop to one-quarter mile or less until it does burn off. A surface ridge is expected to build across the Quad State area today through tonight as it gradually shifts east overnight. This will lead to fairly quiet conditions. Aloft, a broad trough axis will shift eastward through tonight as heights begin to rise from the west, leading to more a ridged pattern later tonight. The lack of moisture today through this evening will lead to partly cloudy skies; however, there will be a gradual increase in cloud cover late tonight as warm air and moisture advection increases on the back side of the departing surface ridge. A surface low is expected to develop and shift into the central Plains Thursday into Thursday night as the aformentioned surface ridge drifts gradually to the northeast. The pressure gradient between the two will allow wind speeds to increase from the south. Flow off the Gulf will allow for moisture return along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as isentropic upglide increases on solid moisture transport. Their may be just enough instability to produce some thunder, but not expecting severe weather through Thursday night. The next, perhaps better, chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday into Friday night. Showers and storms are expected to develop across the Plains and then shift eastward across Missouri Friday afternoon and evening before reaching the Quad State area Friday night. The convection looks like it would race well out ahead of the forcing/frontal boundary, which would tend to support a weakening trend as it reaches the Quad State area. Instability is fairly low across the Quad State; however, it is best over portions of SEMO, closer to lower heights. Still not that great though, models painting out a few hundred J/kg. The western quarter of the CWA (portions of SEMO/southern IL) are in a marginal risk for severe with general thunder for much of the rest of the area. The main threat would be damaging wind before the storms diminish east of the Mississippi River. The next in the series of low pressure systems will develop over the central Plains, then lift northeastward toward the western Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. As this happens, a frontal boundary will shift through the Quad State overnight into Monday morning. Along and ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be fairly widespread. Shear and instability may be enough to lead to an increased risk for severe storms Sunday night; however, there are some differences in the guidance so details will be ironed out over the next few days. Western portions of the Quad State are outlooked for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday night. Again, current thinking is a damaging wind risk, but details are a little murky at this time. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s for much of the area! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Patchy dense fog this morning will quickly dissipate just after sunrise. The rest of the TAF issuance will remain VFR. Winds will be failry light, generally at 10kts or less. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ003>005- 007-010-011-013>016-018>021. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC ####018008702#### FXUS64 KAMA 241143 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 643 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite imagery were watching low-level cloud decks and isolated showers move across the Panhandles. These clouds as well as showers are expected to be a continued possibility for today as models see the easterly surface flow and supporting 850mb WWA funnel low-level moisture into the Panhandles. By this afternoon it is possible that dewpoint temperatures will reach into the 50s to low 60s with actual temperatures sitting around mid 60s to low 70s thanks to the cloud cover. On another note, the presence of all this moisture does call into question our chances of thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. At this time, thunderstorm development is going to be very conditional thanks to drier air moving in at the mid-levels and capping the area. Should something be able to break said cap, however, there is quite a bit to work with as a few CAMs are seeing MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the southeast portion of the Panhandles. Shear is also present enough to help something stay sustain long enough for hail to reach golf ball sized. However, confidence is not the greatest that we will be able to break the present cap with your best chance possibly falling during the overnight as the incoming system begins to move in and disrupt the upper-levels. Getting more into this system and its impacts, currently models are expecting the system to ride in on upper-level trough moving through just to our north. This trough will help set-up our classic dryline scenario for the Panhandles, in which everything west of the line will see dry and windy conditions while to the east will be chances of severe thunderstorms. Currently, majority of the high resolution and global models continue see the dryline split the Panhandles roughly around the Amarillo to Guymon line, which would see the eastern half of the Panhandles under severe weather and the western half under critical fire weather conditions. Of course, this positioning still has the potential to change as even the slightest changes to mesoscale could see the line move one direction or the other. Alongside any unexpected changes to the final positioning, there is also a very real possibility that the now developing cloud cover could refuse to break down Thursday and kill any chances for any impacts, which is with out mentioning any negative effects overnight thunderstorms could have to chances Thursday afternoon. Despite the activity for Thursday still being conditional, the potential impacts are not something to be ignored. Starting on the fire weather side, strong southwesterly winds will likely follow behind the line with potential to see winds reach the 25 to 35 mph range and gusts near the 50 mph mark. Added to this will be RH values dropping down to 10% for most of the afternoon. As for the severe side, the short and sweet of it would be to simply to say that all hazards would be possible should anything break the present cap and develop. Getting more into it, most models are see very good MLCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg) meets very good shear at all levels. The support is present for a storm to produce hail up to baseball size with isolated strong tornadoes not out of the question. One area that does have me concerned when seeing these values, is the northeast portion of the Panhandles. Looking through the model soundings that area has the best chances of breaking out of the cloud cover the earliest which would give it plenty of time to heat up and produce thunderstorms. Should that trend continue to hold, then I would put best chances of initial convection up there. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The active weather pattern will continue through the weekend for the southern plains. Friday will see the weather system that impacted the region on Thursday depart to the NE. As this occurs another potent system will rapidly deepen and push into the desert southwest. This pattern will keep a tight pressure gradient across the panhandles leading to gusty winds through the day. Dry air will already been pushed across the southern plains by the departed thursday system. The dry air coupled with the gusty winds will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the panhandles. These conditions will generally be worse in the SW panhandles where the winds are strongest and better in the NE where the winds are a little weaker. For Saturday the weather system in the desert SW will rapidly eject eastward into the southern plains. This will likely bring substantial dynamics and instability to the region. The big question for the panhandles will be, is there enough moisture. Dry air will more likely than not remain entrenched over the panhandles as the winds ahead of this system will be from a dry SW and not a moist S to SE. Some moisture may make it way into the panhandles if the dryline retreats westward out of OK proper but this is far from certain. So there will be a threat of severe weather for Saturday IF and only IF moisture manages to make it way back across the panhandles. What is more likely to occur is fire weather as conditions will still be very dry for areas that dont see moisture return which could be most if not all the panhandles. This will once again be coupled with gusty winds caused this time by the passing weather system. So another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected with better odds of occurrence in the southern panhandles where the winds are likely to be the strongest. Sunday looks to wrap up the active weekend weather with a weak cold front passing across the panhandles. This should lead to a slight reduction in temperatures but also cause a slight increase in moisture. This front should cause gusty winds but no where near as strong as Friday and Saturday. So the weaker winds and higher moisture should put to rest the fire weather conditions. For next work week a ridge seems to be the most probable feature to form across the souther plains. This would lead to warm up and generally dry and fair weather. Highs in the 80s are the most likely warmth however 90s cannot be ruled out just yet. Even with conditions becoming a bit drier the winds are more likely to be on the weaker side under the ridge so fire weather doesn't look to be a concern for now. SH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Cloud cover continues to build across the Panhandles with all terminals expected to see terminals transition MVFR to occasional IFR level CIGs. Expect these conditions to hold over the terminals for most of the day with KAMA and KDHT potentially return to VFR CIGs later this evening. Chances of brief showers or drizzle can still occur at the terminals but confidence is not high enough to include mention in the current package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 56 87 52 / 10 10 20 10 Beaver OK 66 48 87 51 / 30 20 40 30 Boise City OK 66 49 85 47 / 10 0 10 0 Borger TX 70 56 90 53 / 10 10 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 73 55 90 52 / 10 10 10 0 Canyon TX 72 56 87 50 / 0 10 10 10 Clarendon TX 68 56 82 53 / 10 10 30 30 Dalhart TX 71 50 86 44 / 10 0 10 0 Guymon OK 65 49 87 48 / 10 10 30 10 Hereford TX 77 56 88 50 / 0 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 66 52 83 53 / 30 20 40 40 Pampa TX 66 55 84 53 / 20 10 30 20 Shamrock TX 67 55 79 53 / 30 20 40 40 Wellington TX 70 57 79 54 / 20 20 40 50 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...11 ####018003610#### FXUS64 KSJT 241144 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Isolated thunderstorms developing off the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and South Plains this afternoon, may move east into the Big Country and northern Concho Valley this evening. With GFS MUCAPES of 2000 to 2500 J/KG and 0-6 bulk shears of 40 KTS, some storms could be severe. With fewer short range CAMS models indicating convection, however, confidence in storm development is less than Tuesday. Hail up to 2 inches and winds up to 70 mph possible. It will be otherwise another warm day with highs in the 80s. Areas from the Concho Valley could hit 90 degrees. Southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into the region with redevelopment of low clouds again tonight. Mild tonight with lows in the mid an upper 60...as clouds and south winds of 10 to 20 mph keep the atmosphere mixed and temperatures up. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night... A negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift northeast from the Desert Southwest Thursday morning and into the central/southern Plains by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area along the dryline Thursday evening, as lift increases ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across West Central Texas mainly after midnight, as the dryline/Pacific front advance eastward. Ample low level moisture, coupled with strong deep layer shear will support some severe storms well into the overnight hours, with the greatest threat expected from the Concho Valley northward into the Big Country. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, although a couple of tornadoes will be possible as low level shear increases with a strengthening low level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to end early Friday morning, as storms move off to the east. Another upper level trough will develop over the Desert Southwest early Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast into the central/southern Plains late Saturday night and early Sunday. This system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area Saturday into early Sunday, along with another threat for some severe storms. Still looks like mainly quiet weather for the area early next week, with thunderstorms possible again by mid week as yet another shortwave develops southwest of the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 MVFR stratus (and likely IFR status at KSOA) this morning will scatter out early afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near KABI this evening, but will not include due to low chances. MVFR stratus otherwise returns late evening and overnight across the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 67 84 63 / 0 20 10 80 San Angelo 89 68 85 63 / 0 0 10 60 Junction 88 68 88 67 / 0 0 10 30 Brownwood 82 67 82 64 / 0 10 10 70 Sweetwater 83 67 82 62 / 10 20 20 70 Ozona 86 67 82 63 / 0 0 10 40 Brady 83 68 83 66 / 0 0 10 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...04 ####018004494#### FXUS64 KCRP 241145 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Deterministic models predict a slowly progressive pattern over the CONUS during the period, with an upper level ridge (with N-S axis) is expected to move eastward across the central CONUS (including TX) today, while an upper level disturbance enters the west coast tonight then approaches the Four Corners region Thursday. Although above normal PWAT values are expected to persist over the CWA during the period, no significant precipitation expected owing to significant CIN/subsidence today, and greater CIN Thursday. In response to the foregoing upper disturbance to the west, breezy/windy conditions are expected over the CWA Thursday afternoon. Yet, Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected due to elevated relative humidity values. The nearness to the full moon and increasing onshore wind speeds will contribute to a Moderate risk of rip currents Thursday. Will retain the NBM maximum temperatures today/Thursday over the CWA, which are slightly warmer than both the HREF and SREF ensemble mean values. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Key Messages: - Medium to high chance of patches of Wind Advisory conditions Thursday night into Friday. - Very warm on Saturday with highs nearing the triple digits out west. Not much of a change from previous Extended forecast package. A series of mid to upper level disturbances will combine with pockets of above normal moisture to provide a slight chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms Friday and again Sunday through Tuesday. A few frontal boundaries will also accompany the upper level systems Friday and Sunday, but these will generally only make it into portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Aside from this, the main hazard through the long-term range is a strong southeasterly flow developing and leading to brief periods of Wind Advisory conditions over portions of the Brush Country Thursday night and across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads on Friday. Winds are also forecast to be elevated across the coastal waters through the entire cycle leading to SCEC to SCA conditions. Otherwise, expect increasingly warmer temperatures into the weekend with a medium chance (50%) of maximums exceeding 100 degrees across the west on Saturday, or 95 degrees or above daily through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Expect a mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning through early afternoon, followed by prevailing VFR conditions. Expect an approximately 03-06z Thursday transition to predominate MVFR ceilings. Weak to moderate onshore flow this morning/early afternoon followed by breezy conditions during the late afternoon/early evening hours. A transition to weak to moderate flow expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow expected today and tonight. Generally moderate onshore flow will develop Thursday afternoon, as an upper level disturbance approaches the southwestern United States. Onshore flow is forecast to strengthen to moderate to strong levels Thursday night, with periods of Small Craft Advisory or Caution conditions persisting through Sunday. Winds will weaken into more moderate levels Sunday night and into weak to moderate by Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 85 70 84 72 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 93 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 83 72 82 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 92 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 87 72 87 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 74 83 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WC LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...WC/87 ####018005292#### FXUS63 KGRR 241145 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 745 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Thursday morning - Rounds of Precipitation in the Forecast Friday Night through Monday - Warmer Weather Expected This Weekend into Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 - Widespread Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Thursday morning Bottom line up front: In coordination with Detroit have decided to upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Gusty Northwesterly flow continues with cloudy skies and strong cold air advection behind the cold front. Downsloping flow will continue today into tomorrow as dry, cold air settles over the region as the day progresses. Dewpoints will drop today and overnight into Thursday. Clearing skies follow from north to south today as cold dry air mass pours in, with sunny skies emerging by early afternoon as sfc dew pts drop into the teens north and 20s south. Guidance has been consistently showing high probabilities for sub freezing temperatures early Thursday morning as sfc high settles overhead with sfc dew pts of 15 to 20 in place. While some questions of cloud cover remain, latest CAMS and ensemble guidance have very few if any low to mid clouds with any high clouds predominately in the far southwest. Winds are expected to drop shortly after sunset so the calm winds will only aid in lowering temperatures. Latest NBM has dropped temps even colder. Coldest temps look to be in the low 20s along the US 10 corridor with the mid to upper 20s through most of the area. The warmest temps will be west of US 131 near the lakeshore. for these reasons have gone with a warning. As the upper level ridge builds over the region expect clear and dry conditions to continue through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound with highs on Thursday in the upper 50s. - Rounds of Precipitation in the Forecast Friday Night through Monday An active spring time pattern is shaping up in the longer term of this weekend into next week. A trough aloft will be replaced by deep southwest flow as we head into the weekend...which means rounds of precipitation. The first upper wave will swing through the region Friday night into Saturday. At the surface a warm front will surge through as well. Given a deep southwest flow plenty of moisture will be available making both showers and thunderstorms likely. GFS and ECMWF most unstable CAPE progs indicate values in excess of 1,000 j/kg. Rainfall amounts with this first event will likely be above a half inch. Another rain event looks likely for Sunday into Monday as we will be in the warm sector initially followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. Some shower activity may linger into Monday night. We look mainly dry for Tuesday into Wednesday. - Warmer Weather Expected This Weekend into Early Next Week The deep southwest flow will bring much warmer air into the region. 850mb temperatures will largely be in the +10C to +14C range this weekend into next week. Highs in the 60s and 70s are expected which is well above normal highs which are around 60. In the warm sector on Sunday its not out of the realm of possibilities to make a run at 80. The ECMWF MOS guidance actually has a high of 80 on Sunday at GRR. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 744 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 MVFR ceilings are widespread across the area at 12Z. The back edge of the clouds is currently across far Northern Lower Michigan, but the clearing line will make steady progress southward today. Look for clearing skies to take place across the Southwest Lower Michigan TAF sites between 15Z and 20Z. VFR weather is expected with mainly clear skies this evening and tonight. North winds of 5 to 15 knots can be expected today. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Wednesday. Strong, downsloping northerly flow will continue through the daytime. Winds will begin to have a northeasterly off shore component this afternoon and will slacken late this afternoon. Winds and waves should subside quickly Wednesday night into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the area. Southerly flow should prevail over Lk MI through most of the upcoming weekend as a warmer/more humid air mass arrives. It's quite possible the southerly winds will be strong enough to require small craft advisories, at least at times. Other marine threats over the weekend could include occasional thunderstorms and areas of fog as dew points above 50 arrive atop chilly water temps in the mid 40s. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke/Ceru AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Ceru ####018004255#### FXUS64 KTSA 241145 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Today starts an extended period of very active weather which will likely continue through the weekend as a series of strong storm system moves through the region. Multiple rounds of severe weather appear likely, at least in some areas, with the potential for heavy rainfall and eventually flash flooding. patchy dense valley fog will continue to expand in coverage across portions of far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas through sunrise near cold front currently extending southwest into east central Oklahoma. A mid level disturbance will approach into stronger west- northwest flow today with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely developing near and north of the front this morning into the afternoon hours. The extensive cloud cover and expected precipitation should keep temperatures on the cool side north of boundary. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 As stronger warm advection/low level jet develops tonight, a few clusters of strong to marginally severe storms are likely across portions of northeast Oklahoma, especially after midnight into Thursday morning. With some spread in the CAM solutions, exact locations and coverage is still somewhat uncertain, however a few swaths of heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that train over the same areas into Thursday morning. Additional storms are likely Thursday night, especially along/north of I-44 as strong mid level low lifts into the central Plains. Again at least some severe threat is expected including the potential for heavy rainfall. Forecast remains challenging regarding storm evolution into Friday and will likely depend on timing and how much destabilization occurs ahead of main convective development. Very strong wind profiles in association with mid level speed max are expected during the day Friday and any pockets of greater instability would likely have a more enhanced threat for rotating storms. Dry line stalls Friday night west of area with a very moist/unstable air-mass expected into Saturday ahead of another robust upper low lifting northeast into Kansas. Again severe weather appears likely, which could transition to a heavy rain/flash flooding threat into Saturday night, which both GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest. Another round of strong/severe storms could redevelop across SE OK/NW AR Sunday before cold front finally pushes southeast of the area Monday morning. Specific severe threats will continue to be refined over the next few days, including areas that have the greatest threat for heavy rainfall. Flooding could become a concern, especially Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds along with easterly winds are forecast across the CWA today. Chances for showers/storms increase late morning through this afternoon as precip out west moves into/through the CWA. Will add Tempo groups and Prob30 groups for timing. This evening into the overnight hours scattered to broken mid clouds are forecast for the CWA with the potential to become MVFR late tonight as additional showers/storms look to move into the region. Winds tonight should remain in an east to southeasterly direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 59 72 64 / 50 60 90 80 FSM 75 59 72 64 / 50 60 80 40 MLC 74 63 77 65 / 60 60 60 70 BVO 72 54 71 61 / 50 80 90 90 FYV 75 54 69 60 / 30 60 90 50 BYV 73 54 64 57 / 10 70 90 50 MKO 71 59 72 63 / 50 60 80 70 MIO 72 55 67 61 / 20 80 90 80 F10 71 59 75 65 / 60 60 70 80 HHW 75 64 77 66 / 50 30 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...20