####018005971#### FXUS63 KAPX 091840 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 140 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday. Lake effect snow likely in its wake late Wednesday through Thursday. - Another clipper Friday with additional lake effect snow chances through the weekend, along with cold temperatures.&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains over the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough crossed northern MI this morning, now situated just downstream. Focus quickly shifts upstream to a wave dropping into the Dakotas. Attendant surface low following suit. This system waves southeast to southern WI by 06z tonight and into southern Ontario by mid- Wednesday morning. Colder air gets pulled in on the heels of renewed northwest winds on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon/ evening. Forecast Details: Most widespread snow associated with this morning's clipper now off to our east, but a mix of lighter snow showers and freezing drizzle linger across parts of northern MI. Additional snow accumulation through the early evening likely under a half inch with a coating to 0.05" of ice where freezing drizzle falls/mixes in. By mid-late evening, next round of snow expected to be spreading into northwest lower, continuing to progress east/southeast through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Somewhat better agreement coming into line with this morning's suite of global and hi-res guidance with the swath of heaviest snow likely falling across parts of central and southern MI. Should be a pretty impressive embedded FGEN band that sets up across part of this area, but again, highest probabilities for this lie to our south. That said, still some impactful snow accum. expected across southern parts of APX's footprint -- namely south M-32 and to a further extent, south of M-72. Expecting a fairly sharp cut off on the northern edge of the snow shield. This is the least confident part of the forecast at this time with exactly where that northern edge cut off is, but current trends support accums tapering quickly as you head near and north of M-32. No changes planned to the inherited winter weather advisories -- those advised areas still forecast to receive 2-5". A more general 1-2" toward the M-32 corridor. Largely an inch or less north of there. Widespread snow expected to be exiting through Wednesday morning, clearing far southern areas near Saginaw Bay towards midday. Renewed northwest winds on the backside of this system, gusty as times up to 25-30 mph. This will bring a return of lake effect snow showers to the typically favored snow belts of eastern upper and northwest lower afternoon, and more so Wednesday evening/night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Wednesday night - Thursday night: Northwest / west-northwest winds expected to prevail Wednesday night through Thursday with lake effect snow showers being the rule, favoring the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Eye-popping snow amounts may be hard to come by, however, as latest trends point toward little in the way of synoptic help above a gradually shrinking inversion below 5-6 kft. None the less, it'll remain wintry in the snowbelts with some localized advisory-level snow amounts not out of the question. Thursday evening/night, low-level winds expected to gradually back more west or west-southwesterly, likely pushing what lingering lake effect snow showers remain toward the tip of the mitt. Friday into the weekend: Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend. H8 temps progged as low as around -21C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range ENS trends continue to favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced event that'd favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI through this time frame. Given such cold temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited, resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an extent, but also yield lower visibilities. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Accumulating snow continues to move across northern Michigan the next couple hours with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as snow moves over terminals. A brief lull in precipitation is expected this afternoon, potentially improving and/or holding conditions at MVFR with low VFR on the table by late this evening, especially APN. However, most sites look to hold MVFR CIGs for most of the issuance period as another round of widespread accumulating snow moves in tonight and Wednesday. An additional several inches of snow is expected across much of northern lower Michigan, including TVC and MBL. Otherwise, gusty south winds will continue to gradually turn west and weaken this evening, then strengthen Wednesday with occasional gusts 20-25 knots possible across all terminals. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...NSC ####018007241#### FXUS61 KCAR 091841 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 141 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weather disturbance will cross the area tonight. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday...cross the area Wednesday night...then continue into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High pressure will build south of the region Friday into Saturday. A new low may approach on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A weak ripple in the upper flow will cross the area tonight. Enough moisture is expected to pull north from this system to bring an inch or two of light snow to Coastal Downeast areas tonight. However, moisture will likely not make it north to produce anything more than a chance for patchy light snow. The disturbance will quickly continue on into the Maritimes early Wednesday morning. Our focus on Wednesday turns to a more substantial low approaching from the Great supported by a trough sliding through the Midwest. Snow ahead of this system, with rain along the coast, will push into Downeast areas around midday and reach the north around mid afternoon. The rain/snow line will migrate north changing precipitation over to all rain for the rest of Downeast and the lower Penobscot Valley by the end of the day with snow continuing across the north. There will be a slight chance for some light patchy freezing rain in the transition zone. There is some uncertainty how for north the change-over to rain will progress, but it could reach just north of Houlton Wednesday evening. This is a fast moving system and snow, with rain Downeast, will begin to taper off by mid evening Wednesday. A light to moderate snowfall of 4 to 6 inches seems likely across Eastern Aroostook and northern Penobscot Counties with around three inches to the west, and little or none Downeast. The greatest uncertainty in amounts may be over Southeastern Aroostook County where a mix or change to rain may limit amounts to around 2 to 4 inches. Low pressure will lift away to the northeast late Wednesday night as the upper trough approaches from the west. Some divergence aloft and lingering moisture may result in continued snow showers over the north toward Thursday morning. Otherwise, Wednesday night will remain mostly cloudy and milder than recent nights with lows from near 20 north to 30 Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... *Key Messages -Cloudy with Snow Showers Thursday -Cold and Breezy Friday Discussion... A deep 500mb trof will be pivoting overhead during the day Thursday with scattered snow showers and cloudy skies. Westerly winds increase throughout the day with temperatures barely budging and will fall in the afternoon as cold air advection increases. Highs top out in the mid 30s for the Downeast coast, low 30s for the Bangor region and 20s for the rest of Northern & North-Central Maine. Westerly winds begin to get gusty 15-25mph by sunset in the late afternoon. Thursday night opted to increase winds with the NBM90th percentile and increased gusts 3-8mph given increased confidence in a deepening low over the Maritime. This will result in an increased pressure gradient than previously seen operational model runs. Winds gusting 20-30mph with isolated higher gusts up to 40mph across the higher terrain near Greenville. Any fluffy 20-25:1 ratio snow that falls will blow around in the open fields of Northern Maine and opted to add patchy blowing snow. Friday snow showers will come to an end and temperatures start out in the 9-12F range north and 12-16F range south. Wind chills will bottom out in the -9F to 0F range for most locations. Friday westerly winds gusting 20-30mph with temperatures topping out around 20F across the north and mid to upper 20s for central and Downeast regions. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... *Key Messages: -Unsettled weather pattern, chance for snow this weekend Discussion... Low continues to move northeast away from Maine on Friday night. Wind gusts relax through the evening and overnight hours into Saturday AM. Weak ridging builds in Saturday morning, as another low to the west begins to move towards Maine. Generally highs in the 20s and teens, and lows in the teens to single digits. Significant differences with a potent northern stream trof working into the area Sunday into Monday. Increasing jet streak and upper level divergence will give way to surface cyclogenesis. There is a ton of differences in the operational, ensemble members and AI modeling. There is a potential for a coastal storm system but nothing to latch onto right now with numerous operational solutions varying with storm types. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will lower to MVFR around midnight over the south tonight and after midnight across the north late tonight. Conditions may lower to IFR over the south late tonight. MVFR conditions north and IFR to MVFR conditions south Wednesday morning will lower to LIFR conditions across the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Conditions may improve to MVFR late Wednesday night. Winds south around 5 kt tonight, southeast 5 to 10 kt Wednesday, then light and variable across the north and southwest around 5 to 10 kt Downeast Wednesday night. SHORT TERM: Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning in snow showers in the north, and rain showers Downeast. VFR south and MVFR north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30kt. Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 30 kt. Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10-15 kt. Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Sunday...VFR/MVFR, potentially lowering to IFR by late day. W-NW 5-15 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up tonight into Wednesday followed by a gale late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Seas building up to 5 ft tonight, 7 ft Wednesday and 8 ft Wednesday night. SHORT TERM: SCA winds Thursday increasing back to westerly Gales from Thursday late day into Friday night. Gusts up to 40kt possible. Waves 7-10ft through much of this period. Winds/seas fall below SCA late Friday night into Sunday AM before potentially another set of SCA to Gales by early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM EST Thursday for MEZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ005-006-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...MB Short Term...JS Long Term...JS Aviation...MB/JS Marine...MB/JS ####018002293#### FXUS64 KMOB 091841 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1241 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Breezy conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next front. - Warmer temperatures expected for the middle to end of the week followed by a cool down early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A cold and dry airmass will continue across the area through tonight. Southerly flow ramps up with breezy conditions expected in the afternoon on Wednesday, especially across the northern half of our area ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures quickly rebound on Wednesday with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s. The front will move through the area late Wednesday with another shot of cool and dry air for Thursday. No rain is expected with the front due to the very dry airmass in place. Temps will quickly rebound for the end of the week as sfc high pressure quickly moves east and a southerly flow develops. Highs will be in the upper 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday. Another front moves through late in the weekend, with cool temps expected for the start of next week. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected in the middle to end of the week. Southerly winds develop on Friday and Saturday ahead of another cold front that slides through late in the weekend with strong northerly flow in the wake of the front. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 39 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 45 65 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 46 66 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 32 66 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 34 64 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 33 63 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 32 66 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ ####018003504#### FXUS64 KSJT 091842 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, cooler Wednesday, then warmer than normal Thursday through Saturday. - Cold frontal passage Saturday night with cooler temperatures Sunday. - Dry forecast this week and during the weekend but a low chance (<20%) for early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Expect warmer, dry and breezy conditions today across the area. Strong low pressure developing over the Northern Plains(pressure trough extending south into the Southern High Plains) will result in a tighter pressure gradient and southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts to 30 possible across the Concho Valley And Big Country this afternoon. Highs will be above normal, with upper 60s to mid 70s. Expect mild and dry weather tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A predominantly northwest-flow pattern should continue at the upper- levels for west central Texas Thursday through Saturday. A warm airmass in the low levels should also continue during this time. Temperatures at 850mb will be 10-12 deg C on Thursday, warming to 12- 16 for Friday and Saturday. This should lend to highs around 70 on Thursday, warming to the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday. Nights will continue to have plenty of radiational cooling with clear skies and fairly light winds, so lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Looking ahead to Saturday night into Sunday, model consensus brings a stronger cold front through Texas, driven by a 1040mb high over the Midwest. Currently, our forecast shows high temperatures reaching the 50s for Sunday behind the front. However, there is potential for this front to get into Texas earlier Saturday evening. This could result in colder temperatures for Sunday as model spreads show potentially colder temperatures. For example, the 25th percentile shows highs in the 40s, and 10th percentile in the 30s. Regardless, given the mostly cloudy skies and cold advection expected behind the front, conditions will likely feel cooler than the forecast temperatures. High temperatures look to rebound into the 60s for Monday and Tuesday as southerly return flow is expected ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. For now, rain chances with this trough look low, but this will be monitored with subsequent models runs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest this afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kt. Winds will remain out of the south overnight at 10-15 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 46 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 42 65 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 40 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 40 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 46 62 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 39 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 44 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...42 ####018003953#### FXUS62 KILM 091843 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 143 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Wednesday will wind up seasonable but a late day cold front will usher in chilly air once again. Friday begins a warmup where weekend highs wind up in the 60s before another cold front later Sunday. Neither of these boundaries will bring any significant rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stratus has been slow to erode through the morning, but dry air has finally cleared out most of SE NC and is thinning the cloud deck across NE SC early this afternoon. Clearing will allow temps to fall into the mid/upper 20s overnight, at least away from the immediate coast, as winds go calm under high pressure. SW flow and moderating temperatures return on Wednesday as low pressure swings across the Great Lakes. Mixing to about 2000-2200 ft Wednesday afternoon will tap into a low-level jet, allowing gusts of 30-35 mph. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Channeled vorticity streaks across northern NC Wednesday night under the southern periphery of cutoff low north of the Great Lakes. This shoves a rain-free cold front through the area and well offshore. Low level wind fields will weaken in the ensuing CAA regime Thursday afternoon so much less breezy than Wed night. The high builds in Thursday night while weakening but some high, thin clouds will be building in from the northwest along a very long and expansive upper jet running from the DelMarva to British Columbia, Canada. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front lifts through early Friday, though the WAA only looks strong enough for a return of near-seasonable temperatures by afternoon. WAA continues over the weekend but in a very weak and disorganized manner. As such some of the operational guidance showing both afternoons warming well into the 60s seems a bit ambitious and the more tempered highs of the NBM were retained. Cold front arriving Sunday not only ends the warmth but could also offer a shot of modified Arctic air. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR ceilings eroding from north to south this afternoon, and should allow clearing at KMYR/KCRE/KFLO over the next few hours. VFR expected overnight and Wednesday, with SW gusts developing late morning Wednesday. LLWS may develop for a few hours Wednesday evening. VFR expected Wednesday afternoon through Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Light winds expected overnight as high pressure pushes across the waters. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, resulting in SW flow developing across the waters. A low-level just will push over the waters Wednesday afternoon, and although mixing will be somewhat limited by a stable marine layer, gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt at times during the afternoon, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory starting at 18Z. Wednesday night through Sunday... Period initializes with advisory- worthy wind and seas following moderately strong cold front. What weak swell components, if any, will be much over shadowed by the wind driven 4-5 second waves. Both abate as Thursday progresses but the real improvement comes Friday as the center of the high sinks south and east and a weak warm front turns our flow back to southerly. W to SW winds over the weekend will increase albeit gradually as the next front approaches. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...CRM MARINE...ILM