####018005225#### FXUS61 KCTP 281110 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 710 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the Carolina coast will track northeast and out to sea today. High pressure will briefly build into Pennsylvania tonight and Friday, then a weak area of low pressure approaching from the midwest will pass across the state Saturday. A more significant low is likely to track just north of Pennsylvania through the Eastern Great Lakes early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... The most significant rain associated has shifted east of the forecast area early this morning. However, model soundings and surface obs support the possibility of some lingering very light rain or drizzle across parts of the Lower Susq Valley through late morning. The passage of a cold front and arrival of a drier northwest flow should result in a diminishing chance of measurable rain over the southeast counties by early afternoon. Latest guidance tracks a developing surface low on the front well east of PA later today, keeping rain east of the forecast area this afternoon. A much drier northwest flow behind the cold front will result in brightening skies from west to east today. However, model RH profiles indicate warm advection aloft ahead of the approaching upper trough will result in a lingering veil of high clouds over Central and Eastern PA. GEFS 2m temp anomalies point to near seasonal highs today, ranging from the upper 40s over the Alleghenies, to the low 50s east of the mountains. Forecast soundings over the central and western counties shows a marked dry layer above a weak inversion later today, a signature that usually supports undercutting NBM dewpoints a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair and seasonable weather is anticipated tonight, as the upper trough shifts east of the state. However, a weak area of low pressure diving across the Ohio Valley could potentially come close enough to produce a few snow showers over Southern Somerset County. Large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough should result in sunny, breezy and seasonable weather Friday. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -1C to -4C translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 40s over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. Bufkit soundings also support wgusts several knots above NBM guidance Friday afternoon and dewpoints a few degrees below due to fairly deep mixing. Higher fuel moistures should limit the risk of wildfire spread, despite expected wind gusts near 30kt and RH falling to around 30pct. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of LIFR and brief VLIFR will continue across the Lower Susq Valley and Western Pocono airfields through the mid morning (12-13Z) before slowly improving to MVFR late this monring. MVFR conditions (related to CIG bases) could linger until at least the mid afternoon hours before lifting to bkn VFR Stratocu cloud bases. Current MVFR cigs at KIPT (where the cold front just pushed trough around 08Z) will improve to VFR between 16-17Z. A similar, albeit slightly faster progression from borderline IFR/MVFR cigs (in cooler/moist upslope flow at the KBFD and KJST airfields), to late morning VFR will occur. Elsewhere across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state (that was firmly in the wake of the cold front), mainly VFR will occur, though there could be some periods of high end MVFR CIGS through Noon EDT (16Z). Mainly VFR will follow for later this afternoon into Friday as a weak sfc ridge of high pressure builds over the Commonwealth. The is a low end probability for a few periods of MVFR cigs redeveloping late tonight at KJST and KBFD. As an area of surface low pressure intensifies fairly quickly well east of the NJ Coast tonight, NW wind will increase with likely gusts into the low to mid 20s. Borderline LLWS at all TAF sites tonight with the base of 35KT NW winds between 1.5 and 2 kft AGL. Leaning toward some mixing of the NW wind to smooth out the vertical gradient of the wind profile and create more of a turbulent low-level mechanical mixing profile compared to true LLWS with a +/-20KT change over 200 FT in the verticaL. Outlook... Fri...Patchy MVFR cigs possible early across the Western Mtns of PA, otherwise VFR with a moderately gusty (20-25 mph) NW winds. Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry weather Sunday afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert AVIATION...Lambert ####018006561#### FXUS63 KLOT 281110 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 610 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming temperatures through weeks' end - Periods of showers and storms Friday night through the weekend - Another storm system likely to impact the area early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through Friday: Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the southern Great Lakes today allowing temperatures to warm toward more seasonable readings. However, lingering cold temperatures aloft due to an upper low to our north will limit the amount of warming today with highs expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid-50s. In addition, the colder air aloft will also promote some deeper diurnal mixing today which some guidance suggests may pull down drier air and limit the low-level moist advection. While our current forecast does have humidities this afternoon remaining in the 35 to 40 percent range, if dew points are able to mix down this afternoon RH readings could verify lower to around 30% especially across northern IL. Thankfully, winds today should be somewhat light with gusts generally under 20 mph which should limit any fire weather concerns this afternoon. Heading into tonight, a surface baroclinic zone will begin to lift into the area which will likely generate a bit of a north- south temperature gradient with overnight lows. Guidance also continues to show a weak mid-level impulse pivoting atop this baroclinic zone which looks to be sufficient to generate some isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area (areas south of the Kankakee River Valley). However, forecast soundings continue to show a decent amount of dry air in the sub-cloud layer which may limit the overall coverage. Therefore, despite a large guidance support for higher POPs, I have decided to maintain the advertised 15 to 20 percent chances for showers this evening through about midnight. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to once again prevail through Friday afternoon with warmer temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Though onshore winds along the IL lakeshore will keep temperatures notably cooler in the 40s. Friday night through Wednesday... Several periods of active weather will begin to establish across the central CONUS, including our area, Friday night as a broad upper trough moves onshore over southern California and progresses eastward through the early part of next week. The first period of inclement weather for our area is expected Friday night as a modest shortwave passes through the southern Great Lakes and interacts with the aforementioned baroclinic zone which is expected to be stalled across northern IL. As these features interact a weak surface low will develop across eastern Iowa and propagate eastward along the boundary generating a broad area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms as it does so. Given the non-favorable diurnal time, instability over northern IL and northwest IN looks to be somewhat modest at best but still sufficient for at least scattered embedded thunderstorms particularly in the warm sector south of the boundary. As a result, widespread severe weather is not expected. However, there will be a stout 500 mb jet pivoting into the area Friday night which should develop 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear and possibly allow for some more robust cores to develop. Any storm cores that area able to take advantage of the shear may be able to produce localized instances of small hail and possibly some gusty winds. Additionally, PWATs of 0.75 to 0.90 inches are forecast to advect into the warm sector of this system which may yield some heavier downpours especially with any robust storm cores. Given that soil moistures are above average and the lack of green vegetation yet, runoff from the rain could lead to instances of river and stream rises and result in a concern for localized flooding. Guidance continues to depict that showers and storms should wane Saturday morning as the surface low exits into northern Indiana, but some guidance does redevelop convection in the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Whether or not this warm sector is in our area remains uncertain. A similar story can be told for Sunday as the potential for showers and storms will depend on how far south the baroclinic zone gets shoved in the wake of Saturday morning convection and whether or not it can retreat back into our area prior to storms developing Sunday afternoon. Due to these uncertainties I have decided to maintain the 20 to 30 percent chances for showers in our southern CWA both Saturday and Sunday. Heading into Monday, the aforementioned trough is forecast to be ejecting into the southern plains with a strengthening upper jet aimed at the southern Great Lakes. This broader forcing is expected to be enough to surge the baroclinic zone back north as a new surface low develops somewhere across the Mississippi Valley. However, where this surface low will track once it develops remains very uncertain among guidance members which will play a major role in what impacts we see. While it does appear likely that we will see some additional rainfall from this system, the intensity of said rainfall and whether or not any strong to severe storms develop into our area will be something to monitor over the coming days. Yack && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 There are no significant aviation weather concerns through the TAF period. A deck of VFR cigs (around 050) will prevail across the terminals this morning. No precipitation is expected at the terminals. Light southwesterly winds will become a bit breezy/gusty later this morning and afternoon with occasional gusts around 20 kts, perhaps briefly a bit higher late this afternoon prior to sunset. Winds will then become nearly light and variable before trending northeasterly Friday morning. A weak lake breeze will probably turn GYY's winds northeasterly early this evening. Carlaw && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018005401#### FXUS65 KTFX 281111 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 510 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS... A Pacific cold front will cross the region today spreading rain and snow showers across the area. Little or no snow accumulation is expected at lower elevations but some mountain passes will see minor snow accumulation with several inches of snow likely across the mountains near Yellowstone National Park. A cooler airmass settles across the area through the weekend with some additional snow showers possible at times. A warmer and dry weather pattern returns for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Early morning satellite imagery shows a stacked (co-located surface to upper level) low off the Pacific NW coast with upper level jet moving into CA and surface front pushing east into the Northern Rockies. Layer advected precipitable water imagery shows a fairly cohesive plume of moisture at 850-700MB and broader 700-500MB plume being maintained with the front as it moves from WA/OR east into ID with upstream radar imagery in southern ID showing widespread precipitation. This sets up favorable moist southwest flow for orographically generated precipitation near the ID/WY border already this morning ahead of the front's arrival. Timing of the front is slightly earlier than previous forecasts, crossing the divide this morning, however most short term models also develop a weak wave that slows the front’s progression across central and southwest MT through this afternoon and results in somewhat greater amounts and coverage of precipitation today. Showers should begin to push east into central and southwest MT by mid morning with a fairly wide coverage of showers accompanying the front and additional showers moving across the area this afternoon and evening under cooler and somewhat unstable westerly flow behind the front. Snow levels initially around 6000 ft will drop to 3000-4000 ft with the frontal passage resulting in periods of mixed precipitation or snow at lower elevation locations across central and SW MT today, however temperatures overall at lower elevations (outside of precipitation) will be in the mid 40s this afternoon resulting in little no impact to road surfaces, but travelers should be ready for quickly changing visibility in showers. One area that will see snow accumulation are the mountains near the MT/ID border where a winter weather advisory has been issued with greatest impacts likely near Raynolds and Targhee passes where probabilities for accumulations of 6 inches or more through early this evening are around 70%. A cooler and unsettled weather pattern persists through the upcoming weekend as the offshore upper low tracks well south of the region into the SW US while some weaker disturbances from the NW move through the Northern Rockies and MT. A somewhat colder Canadian airmass also slides south across the north-central MT plains later tonight through Friday keeping temperatures there around 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages through the weekend while temperatures across southwest MT remain closer to 5-10 degrees below seasonal averages. Moisture associated with the disturbances from the NW and on the northern periphery of the SW US low will produce some snow showers at times but no organized or impactful precipitation is anticipated. A warmup is still on tap for early next week with good multi- model ensemble support for ridging with daytime temperatures likely to reach into the 60s for many areas by Tuesday. Beyond that there are some differences in how quickly the ridge is broken down by stronger troughing digging southward from the Gulf of AK with cluster analysis showing around 40% of longer range model ensemble members breaking down the ridge by Wed and 60% delaying the break down until Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION... 510 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 (28/12Z TAF Period) Rain/snow showers begin moving east across central/southwest MT this morning as an eastward moving cold front shifts across the area. Most terminals will see a period of MVFR conditions with some brief IFR possible in heavier showers which may also transition to snow as snow levels lower to around 3000-4000 ft by this afternoon in areas of locally heavier precipitation. Surface winds shift to the west with the frontal passage and a few showers may linger into this evening, especially across southwest MT. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 46 25 42 25 / 70 20 20 40 CTB 45 22 38 20 / 20 0 10 30 HLN 48 27 48 27 / 90 20 20 20 BZN 48 24 47 23 / 80 50 10 20 WYS 39 16 39 12 / 100 60 30 20 DLN 47 25 45 25 / 80 20 10 10 HVR 44 22 36 20 / 40 20 0 20 LWT 48 23 41 22 / 90 40 30 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018006133#### FXUS64 KCRP 281113 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 613 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough exiting off to our east as an upper ridge builds in to our west. At the surface, high pressure remains in control of the region. As we move through the day, the surface high will slide east lead which will allow for onshore flow to return. We will see a gradual increase in low level moisture through the day which may lead to some fog development tonight. However, confidence is low in our fog potential as winds will be increase in response to a deepening low across the Plains. Breezy conditions are in store on Friday as southeasterly winds gust up to 35 MPH at times. This may open up a brief period of elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours (See fire section for more). Temps today will be a bit warmer with highs settling into the mid 70s along the coast to the mid 70s out west. Similar conditions are expected on Friday with highs a couple of degrees warmer. The return of onshore flow will keep our lows tonight 5-10 degrees warmer than what we will see this morning. Lastly, maintained a moderate risk of rip currents through tomorrow for our Gulf-facing beaches. Swells at buoy 19 are hovering around 8s at a height of 5ft. Gerling-Hanson plots suggests this trend will continue. Onshore flow will likely not be strong enough today to nudge us into the high risk category but we will monitor trends. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Key Messages: ▶ High chance (60-85%) of at least 100 degrees max temperatures Monday over the Brush Country ▶ Next cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning South Texas will remain under quasi-zonal flow positioned over the northern ridge centered over Central America. This will lead to rain- free fair weather days with temperatures warming through the weekend into Monday. In fact, there is a high chance (60-85%) that max temperatures will reach or exceed 100 degrees over the Brush Country on Monday; this is thanks to climatological max 850mb temperatures according to the NAEFS and ECENS. Following the hot Monday, a deep upper trough and mid-level low over the SW CONUS will elongate and shift eastward across the Great Plains heading into the middle of next week. This will push a cold front through South Texas Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a very low (10-15%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads and cooler temperatures in its wake. There is also a low chance of elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country late Tuesday morning and afternoon as relative humidity drops below 20 percent and winds exceed 20 mph. A reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Positive mid-level vorticity will hang around as a cut-off mid-level low develops over northern Mexico, moves into South Texas beyond the forecast period. However, at first glance moisture will be below normal in wake of the aforementioned front Wednesday's highs may drop down into the 70s across most of the area with lows Wednesday night dropping into the upper 40s over the northern Coastal Plains and to the mid 50s along the coast and Rio Grande Plains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Light and variable winds this morning will shift to the southeast through the afternoon. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts from 20-25 knots possible. Winds will weaken late this evening. However, CRP/LRD will remain elevated through the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Winds will regain an east-southeasterly component through the day today. Onshore flow will strengthen on Friday in response to a low pressure system across the Plains. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed on Friday. Winds across the nearshore waters will weaken over the evenings hours while remaining elevated offshore as we head into the weekend. Moderate onshore flow Saturday through Sunday will become moderate to strong Monday. A cold front passes through Tuesday morning, shifting winds out of the north. Northerly winds become strong Tuesday night into Wednesday as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through the coastal waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Onshore flow will gradually return to the region today. This will allow for moisture to slowly increase as we head into the weekend. Onshore flow will strengthen on Friday in response to a low pressure over the Plains. As winds increase to 25-30 knots (thanks for a 30- 40 knot LLJ), we may see a brief period of elevated fire concerns Friday across the Brush Country. This is all dependent on how efficient our moisture return is over the next couple of days. At this time, confidence is low in this conditions developing as the latest round of guidance has low probabilities for these stronger winds occurring while RHs are low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 61 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 87 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 84 57 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 76 66 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 86 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 59 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 66 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...TC/95 ####018004144#### FXUS63 KGRR 281113 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 713 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny and warmer - Chance Of Precipitation Friday Night into Saturday - Additional Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 - Sunny and warmer High pressure over the Missouri Valley will nose northward today resulting in plenty of sunshine. Rising heights from ridging aloft will also push surface temperatures a bit higher than yesterday. Highs today will range from the upper 30s near US-10 to mid 40s near I-94. Tack on 10 degrees for Friday's highs. Another cold night expected due to clear skies and light winds; mid 20s expected throughout the cwa. The next low pressure system will affect the region Friday night. However, as warm advection gets underway, clouds will begin moving over the cwa Friday afternoon, dimming the sunshine a bit. At this point, we anticipate precipitation holding off until Friday night. - Chance Of Precipitation Friday Night into Saturday The first round of precipitation in the forecast is associated with a surface low developing ahead of a mid-level wave. Ahead of this low, precipitation develops on the nose of the low-level jet in northern Illinois and moves east into lower Michigan. In general, up to 0.25 inches of precipitation is expected, highest across the southern CWA. Uncertainty exists at how far north precipitation extends, however given northeasterly flow off of a canadian high pressure system, a period of sub-freezing temperatures is possible across our northeastern CWA Saturday morning. Guidance is spread on how low temps get, however if precipitation occurs with temps below freezing a period of light freezing rain is possible. Chances of both measurable precipitation occuring and temperatures being below freezing Saturday morning are around 20-30 percent across all 3 guidance suites. In addition, while the warm front will be south of the area, a period of negative 850mb LIs exists early Saturday near I94 bringing a low thunder chance. Precipitation ends later Saturday as the low pulls away. A brief period of surface ridging then occurs for Sunday bringing dry conditions. - Additional Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Tuesday The approach of another surface low Sunday night brings additional precipitation chances that continue into Tuesday. Notable spread still exists in the strength of the ridging across the area Sunday, the track and tilt of the following wave Tuesday following a period of zonal flow , and by extension the track of the surface low across the region. This lends uncertainty as to the overall evolution of the system which is not uncommon in zonal flow patterns. There are even some signals (not strong at present given elevated spread) for snow for at least part of the area. Overall, confidence is high in precipitation early next week, but evolution of the system, precipitation types, and temperatures are low confidence due to the high degree of spread in solutions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 712 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 High confidence in VFR through the TAF window with SKC predominant with occasional FEW cirrus. Winds will be westerly to around 15 knots with occasional gusts over 20 knots today calming to less than 10 knots after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 No changes to the Small Craft Advisory which runs until 6 pm. Gusty west winds are still expected today through mid afternoon before weakening. Wind and waves should fall below criteria by early evening. No marine issues are anticipated through the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...04 ####018004308#### FXUS65 KBOU 281115 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 515 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow and minor travel impacts across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass tonight. Mainly lighter accumulations across the remainder of the Northern Mountains. - Occasional snow showers in the mountains and scattered showers for the northern plains Friday through Saturday. - Mountain snow, with a mix of rain and snow likely for the plains, late Sunday into Monday. Mostly light but there could be some impact for the mountains and foothills. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 The flow aloft will become more westerly today and then switch to a more WSW component tonight. Mid and high level moisture will be embedded in the flow, however, most mtn areas will stay dry thru the aftn. Only exception would be in the Park Range where a few snow showers may develop by late aftn. Across the plains, it will be dry and warmer as highs rise into the 60's. For tonight, cross-sections show moisture will improve in the mtns overnight. In addition, position of an upper level jet should help enhance snowfall, in the nrn mtns, favored by WSW orographic component. Looks like portions of zn 31 could get close to advisory criteria by 12z Fri. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Model trends today include a continued emphasis on a little wave bringing lift over the northern mountains and northern border areas Friday night, then lifting the frontal zone aloft northward with less moisture across most of the area Saturday through early Sunday. There's also a continuation of Wednesday's trend back towards a slower movement of the larger trough with a circulation center developing in the middle of it, over eastern Colorado or Kansas Monday. There's low confidence in that trend and the details of the development. Ensembles continue to mostly trend slower/weaker with the southern portion of the trough than the operational runs, with only 10-20% showing a stronger/colder and also slower solution that could bring more substantial snow to the foothills and even into Denver Monday night. NBM is reasonable for the most part in smoothing out these trends. We still have scattered showers forecast for the mountains, mainly north, and the northern plains areas with higher coverage in the northwest part of our area late Friday into early Saturday. We bumped up PoPs again on Monday. Part of the issues is timing as there should be some showers and perhaps a period of steadier rain/snow on Monday but since the model timing keeps changing it's hard to generate higher NBM PoPs. Conceptually the main time for this should be with and behind the main trough passage which should be mainly during the day Monday. We did raise PoPs Monday night given the current model trends with some runs threatening rain/snow on the plains into Tuesday morning. That seems a bit much, but continuing chance PoPs overnight seems prudent. Overall there's a trend towards slightly warmer temperatures and a lower chance of snow for the I-25 corridor Monday, but slowing the precipitation into Monday night would bring a better chance of a changeover then. In any event, warm temperatures will limit impacts, especially below 7000 feet. Slower ensemble members are slower with the warmup behind the trough Tuesday and Wednesday. Runs that are more aggressive with the trough moving east and the ridging behind it could have us near 60 Tuesday and near 70 Wednesday. With most runs slower than that, we'll stick with the NBM that's about 5 degrees less than that. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions will continue today thru tonight. SSW winds this morning will eventually shift to a more westerly direction by 20Z. For this evening, winds will gradually become SSW by 07z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...RPK