####018010084#### FXUS61 KLWX 070141 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 841 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine gradually returns to the region this afternoon as high pressure builds nearby. A cold front will cross the area Sunday with an upper level low pressure system passing to the south late Sunday night into Monday. Both of these systems could bring some light snow showers to the mountains and to extreme southern portions of the forecast region. Brief high pressure builds again Tuesday before another area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Where moisture is still trapped at the surface this evening, some fog has developed across portions of central and much of eastern VA. This is gradually lifting northward, and becoming dense in spots. Pair this with temperatures already around freezing, and expected to drop well into the 20s, and you have recipe for freezing fog. A Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for several in the central and eastern VA Piedmont region, but these could spread even further north as the night progresses. Where fog becomes dense, with sub-freezing temperatures, expect surface to become slick, especially if untreated. Elsewhere, dry tonight with very cold temperatures well into the low 20s. Any lingering upslope snow showers should be coming to an end if they haven't already. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mostly dry and chilly conditions continue into Sunday. Cloud cover will gradually return as weak high pressure departs the region and a Arctic cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. This front will usher in a much colder airmass for the start of the new workweek. Highs Sunday will push back into the upper 30s and mid 40s outside the mountains. Lows Sunday night will fall into the teens and 20s in the wake of the arctic frontal boundary. The main energy source with this front looks to stay north of the area with a trailing low pressure system and upper level trough working to south across the central/southern Appalachians down into the Gulf Coast states. This in turn will keep any precipitation chances confined to the Alleghenies Sunday and locations along and south of I-64 Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Moisture will increase ahead of the Arctic front Sunday late morning into Sunday afternoon. This will lead to the return of abundant cloud cover across the region with light snow shower activity along the western slopes of the Alleghenies. Froude numbers remain less 0.50 which means no spillover is expected. Looking at a coating to perhaps 2 inches of fluffy accumulation in the western favored upslope zones given meager moisture with the front. This could create some minor travel delays late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night when the bulk of the snow fall (especially on elevated/untreated surfaces). A flurry or sprinkle may be possible further east as the front crosses although moisture will be limited. The bigger story will be the cold post-frontal west to northwest winds Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph can be expected with locally higher gusts along the terrain. The cold wind will send wind chills into the single digits over the mountains early Monday morning with teens and 20s, elsewhere across the region. Wedging high pressure sets up over New England Monday with shortwave energy passing to the south across the Mid-Tennessee River Valley and toward the Virginia Tidewater region. This system may touch off a brief period of light snow mainly along and south of I-64. Confidence remains low in regards to the coverage/magnitude of the system and it's overall track. The GEM/ECMWF/EPS bring probabilities of 1" or less as far north US-33 corridor while the GFS and GEFS remain suppressed a little further south. With that said, a brief period of light snow remains possible late Sunday night into Monday afternoon across portions of the southern Shenandoah Valley eastward into the VA Piedmont/Tidewater region. Continue to monitor weather.gov/lwx/winter for updated timing and totals for this system as we get more model data in. Wedging high pressure centers itself overhead Monday night dropping lows into the teens with 20s in the immediate Baltimore/DC urban centers. Single digit numbers are possible over the mountains with wind chills near 0. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure on Tuesday will linger into Tuesday night, keeping the area dry. Temperatures during the day will be cold with highs only in the lower to middle 30s. Temperatures Tuesday night won't be as chilly as Monday night due to the southerly wind that is expected on the backside. Lows in the middle 20s for the most part. The high moves east Wednesday and Wednesday night to allow for a warm front to wiggle northward into the region, followed by a low pressure system and its associated cold front. This trifecta will bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the northern two-thirds of the region with an increasing likelihood for snow showers to lead to light to modest upslope accumulations in the mountains of the Appalachians. Temperatures won't be as cold with highs in the middle 40s. Through the day on Thursday, brief high pressure will move into the region to bring dry and chilly conditions. Another low pressure system will push across the region Thursday night, followed by its associated cold front. This system seems to want to take a more southerly track than the one expected on Wednesday. There is a better opportunity with this system and front to bring measurable snowfall to parts of the area and some light rain in the southern areas Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple of degrees below average with highs in the middle to upper 40s, colder in the mountains. By late Friday into Friday night, a secondary cold surge will push across the region as a disturbance sags into the mid-Atlantic. This surge could enhance the possibility of moderate snow accumulation in the mountains and perhaps some spill over into the eastern valleys. Temperatures will also take a plunge across the region with highs only in the 30s and perhaps 20s in the northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A strotocu deck has developed across eastern WV into northern VA, but is largely stalled west of IAD at this time. Recent trends in satellite imagery suggest this will gradually dissipate in the next couple hours. Further south, IFR CIGs and dense fog have developed at CHO. With temperatures at or below freezing, that fog could cause surfaces to become slick overnight, so a Freezing Fog Advisory was issued through 14z Sunday morning. VFR conditions return Sunday and continue into Monday with weak wedging high pressure remaining nearby. Sub-VFR conditions will return for a period of time Sunday afternoon and evening mainly west of KCBE with light snow over the mountains. Wind will be the main impact to aviators late Sunday afternoon and evening as an Arctic cold front crosses the region. Gusts of 15 to 25 kts can be expected out of the west and northwest Sunday before switching to the north Monday. Winds will ease Monday afternoon before ramping back up Tuesday as a wave of low pressure passes to the south. Meanwhile, low pressure will pass to the south Monday bringing sub-VFR conditions as far north as KCHO/KRIC. Confidence is low at the time with light snow being the primary concern pending the track and coverage of the system. VFR conditions quickly return Monday night into Tuesday as weak high pressure returns. Winds will turn to the south at 5 to 10 knots, gusting to 20 knots at times. VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday. Some scattered rain or snow showers mainly near MRB could drop conditions to MVFR briefly Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Winds southerly 5 to 10 knots gusts 15 knots. Winds southwest Wednesday 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots. && .MARINE... Light winds continue tonight. However, some dense fog is developing across central and eastern VA, quickly lifting north into portions of the middle and lower tidal Potomac. Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued as a result, meaning the visibility will be reduced to one nautical mile or less tonight. Use extreme caution if out on the waters tonight. This should remain confined to the Potomac, but will reassess if needed to expand further north and/or east. Sub-SCA level winds look to continue through Sunday afternoon with weak high pressure nearby. SCA level winds return Sunday evening into Sunday night as a strong Arctic cold front pushes through. West to northwest winds will change to north Monday while remaining at SCA levels. Some gales are even possible over the open waters of the bay Sunday night into Monday morning as the front crosses. Winds drop below SCA levels Monday night before ramping back up again Tuesday into Wednesday. This is in association with another wave of energy passing through. As of this system, winds will turn to the south leading to southerly channeling late Tuesday into Wednesday. A few showers are also possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for VAZ036-037-050- 056. WV...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for ANZ536-537. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...CJL/EST SHORT TERM...EST LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...KLW/CJL/EST MARINE...KLW/CJL/EST