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FXAK67 PAJK 191331

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

531 AM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024



.SHORT TERM...With the high pressure persisting over the panhandle

Friday, the weather will once again remain clear and dry. Inside

waters will see winds of 15 kts or less aside from some locally

stronger winds out of interior passes. Aside from brisk sea 

breezes developing during the afternoon hours, winds over land are

expected to be light. Only changes made to inherited forecast was

to further bump up temperatures in some areas based on

observations as well as accounting for turbulent mixing overnight

offsetting some radiational cooling.



.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...Dry weather for 

SE AK lasts a bit longer into Saturday as the approaching front has 

slowed down. As high pressure ridge shifts east a trough from a 500 

mb low over the Western AK Gulf extends over the SE Gulf then 

rotates over the Panhandle from S to N Saturday night into Sunday. 

Cloud cover increases and temps return to seasonable normals with a 

narrower diurnal range. The front will shear apart as it loses upper 

level support so not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts. 

Operational models still have some spread on if this front will 

produce widespread precip but ensembles have been consistent keeping 

in some light precip over entire area. GFS/NAM/Canadian show good 

agreement so leaned towards those. As the front rides over the ridge 

another short break in precip looks to occur Monday as another low 

moves in from the west. "Active" weather continues into next week 

but again ensembles show higher probability of precip than the 

operational models, mainly due to uncertainty from blocking ridge 

break down, large model spread, and likely leaning on climatology. 

Northerly winds diminish as pressure gradient weakens with a 

directional shift occurring through Saturday into Sunday. Marine 

winds generally less than 20 kts. So overall lower confidence in 

forecast details for the mid range.



&&



.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...The weather will remain benign

with widespread conditions within the VFR CIG and VIS flight 

category over all of Southeast Alaska through the entirety of the

24-hour TAF period as our weather remains dominated by a ridge of

high pressure. As far as SFC winds, some minor sea breezes and 

land breezes will occur through the period. LLWS values remain 

insignificant through the period.



&&



.MARINE...High pressure over the region keeps a stalled front over the 

gulf through Saturday. Strong to near gale southeasterly winds 

will persist over the central gulf through Saturday night before 

high pressure moves E of the region. Over the inner channels, 

generally light to gentle winds prevail with moderate to fresh NE 

to E outflow winds out of Taku Inlet, back side of Douglas Island 

and S Lynn through Cross Sound.



&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...STJ

LONG TERM....PRB

AVIATION...JLC



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