####018011080#### FXUS61 KBTV 091851 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 151 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread snowfall will move through tomorrow into tomorrow night, with accumulations generally expected to be in the two to seven inch range. Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly during the Wednesday morning and evening commutes, as well as between 10 AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is anticipated. The colder and active pattern will continue into next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EST Tuesday... **Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for St. Lawrence, Franklin, and western Essex counties of New York as well as Rutland, Washington, Orange, Caledonia, Lamoille, Essex, eastern Addison, and western Windsor counties of Vermont. **In New York, the Advisory runs from 7 AM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday, while in Vermont, the Advisory runs from 7 AM Wednesday through 1 AM Thursday. **Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly during the Wednesday morning and evening commutes, as well as between 10 AM and 3 PM Wednesday, when heavy snow is anticipated. High pressure centered over southern New England will shift off into the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches northern New York from the Great Lakes. This will enhance warm air advection across the forecast area and commence a period of light snow showers. Dry air at the surface will make it difficult for snow to reach the ground, so any snow accumulations will generally be only a couple tenths of an inch throughout the night, though higher elevations in the Adirondacks and northern Greens could pick up an inch or two. This warm air advection will also keep lows milder than we saw last night, though still a few degrees below seasonal normals in the teens to lower 20s. A southwesterly low level jet with winds 40-45 knots will accompany the warm air advection, bringing gusty winds on mountaintops and ridges and efficient atmospheric mixing will also produce gusts up to 30-35 knots at the lower elevations, highest in north to south oriented valleys like the Champlain Valley due to efficient channeling. Any new snow will likely be light and fluffy and blow around easily, lowering visibilities. Tomorrow, a quick-moving clipper type system will cross the region, its surface low tracking through the St. Lawrence Valley tomorrow afternoon into the overnight period. Snow will be steadiest throughout the daytime hours tomorrow with warm air advection in the morning enhancing snowfall intensity and higher snow ratios on the front end allowing snow to pile up quickly. Snowfall rates in the morning could briefly reach around an inch per hour, then turn lighter in the afternoon. Downsloping and shadowing will overall limit snowfall in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. We'll also continue to see southerly to even southeasterly gusts tomorrow up to 25-30 knots, again strongest in north to south oriented valleys. Warm air advection and southerly flow will help make tomorrow the mildest day of the week with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, near seasonable for this time of year. In locations like the wider valleys where we'll have temperatures rising slightly above freezing in the late afternoon, we could see some rain mixing in briefly, but generally steep lapse rates will keep snow the dominant precipitation type for this entire event. As the center of the low passes to the east, northwest flow develops and it should cause a brief period of upslope snow Wednesday night with lows in the single digits to lower 20s. Overall, totals in the three to seven inch range are generally expected in areas we've issued a Winter Weather Advisory and up to three or four inches possible elsewhere. The lake effect band should stay to the south of our northern New York zones, though the moisture will still enhance totals in the central and southern Greens. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...Upslope snow showers are expected Thursday and Thursday night as temperatures dive back down in cold air advection following the system discussed in the near term discussion. Gusty winds will continue out of the west and southwest during this period as well. Highest snow accumulations will be focused across the northwestern Adirondacks and the northern Greens with up to 3 to 6 inches possible. In the southern wider valleys and eastern slopes, we'll see minimal to no snow with even some clearing possible late Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday will be in the teens and 20s during the day, falling to the single digits and teens Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Primary highlights for the long term include upslope snow showers on Thurs night into Friday, another light snow event on the weekend, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early next week. First item wl be a classic upslope fluff event on Thurs night into Friday, as progged 850mb temps fall btwn -12F and -20F with lingering 925mb to 500mb rh >70%. Latest GFS/ECMWF show the closed 700/500mb circulation becoming vertically stacked just north of the International Border, which should promote favorable 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 40 knots, resulting in additional upslope accumulating snowfall thru Thurs night. Have bumped pops into the high likely range for Thurs night with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of fluff, but localized 4 to 6 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. We will continue to monitor depth of moisture to fine tune snowfall amounts, but moderately strong caa should help squeeze out remaining moisture in the mtns. Next fast moving clipper like system associated with positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof arrives late Sat into Sun. Did note the 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with sharpening trof and develops a slightly stronger area of sfc low pres along the mid Atlantic into southern New England. The GFS/UKMET and CMC show more of a clipper like system with a period of light snow late Sat into Sunday, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early next week. This airmass looks to be associated with bitterly cold wind chill values as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -22F and -25F with gusty northwest winds. Cold headlines are likely needed for Sunday night into Monday. This wl be an advection type of cold on Sunday night, followed by radiational cooling on Monday night into Tues with building sfc high pres. Given latest trends additional lowering of temps is likely on Sunday through Tuesday of next week, where highs may struggle to reach 10F in many spots on Monday, with values well below zero again on both Sunday and Monday nights. Cold air wl help to squeeze out a few upslope snow showers on Sunday into Sunday night, before column becomes too dry. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...It is a quiet forecast over the next six hours with a layer of altostratus present ahead of a warm front, then active conditions including LLWS and snow will follow. Bulk of steady snow will be between 12Z and 18Z, with visibilities likely as low as 1/2SM at most sites towards the end of the period. Character of snow initially will be dry and very light with the first showers that arrive in the 00Z-12Z period. In fact, at PBG and BTV, precipitation may be virga with little or no operational impact. Widespread snow then arrives towards 12Z and become much heavier, trending wet, especially at KRUT where snow to liquid ratios could be near 10:1. Other sites will see snowfall with mainly moderate snow to liquid ratios closer to 12:1. Flight conditions will be driven by visibilities, as ceilings lower to mainly 2 to 5 thousand feet outside of the steady snow. Southwesterly winds aloft will greatly increase tonight, leading to LLWS as surface winds remain southerly and relatively light (around 10 knots). Greatest risk of LLWS is at RUT, MPV, and SLK and during the predawn hours. After a lull, LLWS will return towards the end of the TAF period. Other sites will tend to see turbulence but less shear, with wind gusts as high as 25 knots at BTV, especially prior to 12Z and arrival of snow. Outlook... Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. && .MARINE... We have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain as south winds 15 to 25 knots are anticipated this afternoon. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet this afternoon, building 3 to 5 feet this evening. We anticipate the need for an expansion of the Lake Wind Advisory to all other zones of the lake this evening with south winds 15 to 30 knots and gusts as high as 30-40 knots possible. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ004-006>008-010-011-017>020. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Storm SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kutikoff MARINE...Storm EQUIPMENT...Team BTV ####018004103#### FXUS62 KTAE 091852 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 152 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - A quiet weather pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts. Impactful cold weather is forecast to remain north of the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 High pressure centered over the area tonight will slide eastward on Wednesday in advance of a dry cold front. Overnight lows tonight will generally range from the low to mid 30s across inland areas to around 40 for the beaches. Areas of frost are expected inland. On Wednesday, a southwest breeze will pick up ahead of the front with gusts of 15 to 20 mph at times during the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s with dry conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Briefly cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday in the wake of the dry cold front with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area. A warming trend will commence on Friday, and by the weekend, high temperatures are expected to be back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area. Another cold front is expected for early next week with cooler conditions again in its wake for Monday. Rain chances continue to look low with WNW flow aloft and a lack of moisture return from the Gulf. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are present this afternoon. This stubborn stratus deck will slowly persist through the afternoon affecting mainly DHN/VLD/ABY through the late afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail this evening and into early parts of Wednesday. By 08z areas of MVFR/IFR cigs could redevelop, especially across DHN/ABY/VLD, and persist briefly after sunrise. However, confidence remains quite low in the placement and it's possible some terminals don't see restrictions Wednesday morning so these conditions were represented in TEMPO groups. In areas where MVFR/IFR conditions develop, VFR should return by 15z Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Westerly winds will increase on Wednesday in association with a cold front and remain elevated into Thursday morning. Small craft should exercise caution. Tranquil boating conditions will return Thursday night through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 There are no major fire weather concerns. A dry period of weather is on tap for at least the next week. Transport winds will increase on Wednesday, yielding good dispersion, then become northwest after a dry cold frontal passage with fair dispersion on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 149 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Dry weather is expected for the next several day with no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 34 65 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 41 67 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 32 64 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 31 62 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 31 64 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 37 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 65 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD ####018011199#### FXUS61 KBUF 091854 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will bring some light snow to the region this afternoon with minor accumulations. Lake effect snow will briefly develop northeast of the lakes this evening, with a few inches of accumulation locally across the Niagara Frontier off Lake Erie and Thousand Islands region off Lake Ontario. Low pressure will then pass just north of the area Wednesday. Widespread snow will develop ahead of the system late tonight and continue Wednesday, with the lower elevations of Western and Central NY likely changing to rain during the day as temperatures warm above freezing. Much colder air will then move back into the region Wednesday night through Thursday night, with accumulating lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A weakening trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with a brief period of light snow crossing the area from west to east. The low levels are quite dry, so sub-cloud evaporation should keep this snow light and brief, with accumulations less than an inch. Following the trough, there will be a brief window of marginally favorable lake effect setup northeast of the lakes this evening. Off Lake Erie, a band of snow will develop mainly across Niagara County and some of the Buffalo Northtowns with 1-3" of accumulation possible. This will be short lived, with falling inversion heights and warm advection shutting down the lake effect by around midnight. Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow will develop mainly in Canada, although it may occasionally clip the Thousand Islands region with a few inches of snow overnight. A strong clipper low will then move from southern lower Michigan Wednesday morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley Wednesday night. Widespread warm advection/isentropic upglide driven snow will break out ahead of the system late tonight and continue through Wednesday morning. Precipitation type will stay all snow across the high terrain and the North Country, but lower elevations will mix with, or change to rain from mid morning through mid to late afternoon Wednesday as the boundary layer warms above freezing and surface temps rise into the mid to upper 30s. Wednesday night, precip will change back to all snow and evolve into more of an upslope, lake enhanced regime overnight behind the system. As far as accumulations go, from this evening through late Wednesday night expect 8-14" across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks, with 3-6" across the surrounding lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. Across Western NY, expect 4-8" for the higher terrain of the Boston Hills and western Southern Tier, with 2-5" across the Niagara Frontier. Winds, there will be two periods of gusty winds. The first will be later this afternoon and evening northeast of Lake Erie, with peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range. The second period of strong winds will be Wednesday afternoon, again gusting in the 30-40 mph range northeast of Lake Erie. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A deepening closed low will have its 700-500mb core centered just north of the forecast area over the southern ON/QC border Thursday morning. Through Thursday night this system will slowly translate east to the Canadian Maritimes, leaving broad cyclonic WNW flow across the eastern Great Lakes. Post-frontal CAA will bring 850H temps back down to either side of -16C as deeper synoptic moisture circulates back around the low. This will allow moderate to heavy lake effect snow to continue southeast of both lakes, with breezy winds creating areas of blowing and drifting snow. Outside the main lake effect/upslope areas, occasional passing snow showers will bring very minor snowfall to the rest of the area, generally an inch or less. Off Lake Erie...A subtle backing of the low/mid level flow will direct the heaviest additional snowfall though Thursday night along or just south of the Erie/Cattaraugus border. An upstream connection to Lake Huron may support an additional localized 7-9" in this area, while upslope flow may add 4-6" to the totals across the Chautauqua Ridge. Small ripples in the flow will cause the main band to occasionally clip surrounding areas though overall totals should be comparatively lower. Snows should diminish in intensity Thursday night as drier air and (to a lesser degree) shear increase ahead of an approaching ridge off to the west. Off Lake Ontario...The main focus for heavier snow in this timeframe for our CWA is expected to be in the corridor from eastern Wayne to extreme southern Oswego across Northern Cayuga. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay should yield similar magnitude snows in this area with an additional 7-9" forecast. Could see this upper end of this range increase depending on how much moisture lingers across the eastern end of the lake Thursday night; the GFS/NAM indicate an intrusion of dry air which strips the DGZ of moisture, as opposed to the Canadian models which keep the edge of the deeper synoptic moisture hanging over the lake for longer. Have hedged above continuity but below the bullish CMCReg for QPF/SnowAmts until the picture comes into better focus. Otherwise, the edge of the lake snows with added orographic lift will add up to 4-6" up on and around the eastern Tug Hill south of Watertown. As a surface-850mb ridge continues to encroach on the area from the central Great Lakes Friday, diminishing lake snows will likely climb a bit further northward. These may reach the Buffalo and Watertown metros by the afternoon and bring some nuisance snow for the evening commute, though there remains uncertainty in band strength by this point. Otherwise...In contrast to Wednesday's brief warmup, temperatures this period will return to running some 10-15 degrees below average. The blustery winds on Thursday will create wind chills in the teens and single digits, with widespread single digits Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little in terms of reprieve from the active pattern this weekend and early next week. A flattening ridge of high pressure cresting east of the Great Lakes Friday night will be quickly followed by the next deep upper level trough which will dig southeast and become increasingly negatively tilted over the Northeast through the weekend. This will result in at least one more round of synoptic snow for the area sometime between late Friday night and Saturday, with a very deep cold airmass wrapping around the main low causing additional lake effect snow to continue downwind of the lakes into at least early next week. Sfc temps will in all likelihood continue to run well below normal, especially Sunday and Monday, though long range guidance is in fairly good agreement on some degree of warming with the lake response weakening Tuesday onwards. Still a high amount of uncertainty in the details and plenty of weather to sort out between now and this weekend, though long range ensembles favor an initial westerly flow becoming increasingly northwesterly in the second half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weakening trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, producing a brief period of light snow crossing the region from west to east with a few hours of occasional IFR VSBY. Lake effect snow will then develop this evening northeast of Lake Erie near KIAG, and northeast of Lake Ontario north of KART with local IFR conditions. The lake effect will not last long, ending overnight. A strong clipper low will then pass just north of the area Wednesday. Widespread snow will develop from west to east across the region late tonight through early Wednesday morning, with widespread IFR VSBY and MVFR/IFR CIGS. The snow will mix with, or change to rain for lower elevations from late morning through the afternoon, while staying all snow across higher terrain. IFR VSBY will continue in the snow, with improvement to MVFR/VFR in areas that change to rain. Widespread MVFR CIGS will continue, with IFR across higher terrain. Gusty winds will develop northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon and evening, and again Wednesday afternoon, with gusts in the 30-35 knot range during both periods at KBUF and KIAG. Outlook... Wednesday night...Lower elevation rain/snow changing back to all snow, with lake effect snow developing southeast of the lakes overnight. IFR in areas of snow. Thursday through Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers. Areas of heavier lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR southeast of the lakes. Terminals most likely impacted will be KJHW and KROC. Friday and Saturday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers likely. MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with widespread snow likely. && .MARINE... The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly this afternoon as high pressure exits to the east and a weak system moves through the eastern Great Lakes, which will then be followed by a more potent area of low pressure on Wednesday. A deepening area of low pressure will pass by just north of Lake Erie, though very close to Lake Ontario such that the strongest wind fields with this second storm system will maintain gales to just Lake Erie. Behind this second low, a persistent west to northwesterly flow below gale force will ensue Wednesday night and through much of the remainder of the week with small craft conditions on both Lakes right through the week...if not through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001-002-010-011. Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday morning for NYZ004-005. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019>021-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Thomas