####018009894#### FXUS61 KALY 040708 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 208 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Today, scattered snow showers and snow squalls are expected ahead of an arctic cold front. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far, with temperatures below zero for most high terrain areas, and even some northern valley areas. After a dry and cold day Friday, there will be a few chances for some light snow showers through the long term, with continued below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered snow squalls expected ahead of an arctic front today, especially for areas north and west of the Capital District. - Wind gusts this afternoon and evening are expected to approach but fall just short of advisory criteria (46+ mph) for portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and Berkshires. - In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures are expected tonight. Discussion: As of 2:10 AM EST...Current sfc analysis shows a 992 mb sfc low located over the eastern portion of Hudson Bay, with a trailing cold front located back over the Great Lakes. Ahead of the cold front, skies are mostly cloudy, which has helped to hold temperatures a few to several degrees above latest NBM guidance, with 20s to around 30 for most areas. We are also seeing light snow showers moving into the western ADKs and western Mohawk Valley with a corridor of enhanced low to mid-level moisture ahead of the cold front and associated upper troughing. These snow showers should continue to expand eastwards as we head through the rest of the night and the first half of this morning. Portions of the southern ADKs could pick up an inch or two of new snow, with a coating to less than an inch possible in the Western Mohawk Valley and in the southern Greens. Today...Main focus will be potential for snow squalls ahead of/with the arctic cold front as it tracks through our region from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Latest guidance is in good agreement that the best chance for snow squalls will be mainly for areas along and north of I-90, which is were the snow squall parameter is >1 in the hi-res guidance. This makes sense, as this is where the best low-level convergence/FGEN and SBCAPE values of up to around 75 J/kg will be located. Any snow squalls could put down a quick coating to an inch of snow and lead to significantly reduced visibilities. With high temperatures near or below freezing for this area, roads could therefore become slippery in any snow squalls. With 850 mb temperatures dropping to -18C or below, NW flow trajectories, and inversion heights around 700 mb, we may also see a band of lake effect/lake enhanced snow down the Mohawk Valley and into the Capital District for a couple hours this afternoon/early evening. Have gone with a RGEM/NAM blend for QPF and snow amounts here show the potential for up to a few inches of snow in the Mohawk Valley and Berkshires (where there will be upslope enhancement from NW flow), and up to an inch or so in the Capital District. While the timing of this band looks to be around the PM commute, snowfall amounts were not high enough to warrant advisory issuance. This band should shift south into the Schoharie Valley after sunset briefly before dissipating as sfc high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Other main focus this afternoon and evening is gusty winds. BUFKIT model forecast soundings show deep mixing within the cold advection regime behind the arctic front and 40-50 kt at the top of the BL. 4-6 mb pressure rises in 3 hrs behind the front also supports wind gusts potentially getting close to advisory criteria, especially where the NW flow tends to be channeled down the Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into the Berkshires. We increased wind gusts substantially from the NBM and even above the NBM 90th percentile in some areas, but per coordination with neighboring offices decided to hold off on the wind advisory given that it looks rather borderline. Tonight, 1030 mb sfc high pressure builds eastwards from the Great Lakes, eventually sliding over eastern NY by 12z Friday. This will allow for winds to become light and will put an end to any lingering lake effect snow showers. However, with clearing skies and most areas having a fresh snowpack on the ground, we will see nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will likely range from the single digits in the Hudson Valley south of Albany to 10-15 below zero in the ADKs, which could be near record daily lows for some locations. Please see climate section below for more details. We collaborated with neighboring WFOs to lower temperatures tonight several degrees below the NBM, and would not be surprised to see temperatures even colder than our deterministic forecast for western areas that will have the longest time spent under the sfc high. While a few high-terrain areas could hit cold weather advisory criteria, we did not have enough areal coverage to warrant advisory issuance. Partly to mostly clear skies and dry conditions persist through Friday. It will also be quite chilly with daytime highs only in the 10s (high terrain) to 20s (valleys). Friday night and Saturday...Temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset Friday, but the sfc high will be moving off to the east and high clouds increasing as a southern stream disturbance slides to the south of our region and a northern stream disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. Our southern/southeastern-most towns could see some light snow showers or flurries Friday night from the southern system, with a few snow showers in the ADKs Saturday from the northern stream shortwave. Any accumulations look minimal at this time. Lows Friday night will be in the single digits (high elevations) to 10s (valleys) with highs Saturday climbing back into the 20s to 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week. Discussion: Long term period looks to feature continued below normal temperatures, with a series of northern stream disturbances expected to track across our area. Lingering snow showers Saturday evening should diminish overnight as heights rise aloft and the upper forcing tracks off to our east. Lows Saturday night mainly in the 10s to 20s. Sunday starts off dry, but another upper shortwave and strong cold frontal passage will bring additional chances for snow showers Sunday evening and night. Sunday highs will be in the 20s to 30s, but drop back into the 10s to single digits for lows, with some below zero readings possible in the ADKs. Winds will likely also become gusty on Sunday night and Monday behind the arctic front. Monday will be dry but quite chilly with highs only in the 10s to 20s. Sfc high pressure builds overhead Monday night, which could lead to another very cold night. The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows EFI values for minimum temps of -0.8 to -0.9 across the region Monday night, giving us fairly high confidence in the potential for unusually cold temperatures. Lows will likely end up lower than the current NBM forecast, with below zero readings once again possible for high terrain areas. Temperatures remain below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with another northern stream/clipper system potentially bring additional chances for snow showers towards the tail end of the long term period. Cold temperatures look to persist into the 8-14 day period per latest CPC guidance, with the CPC also expecting near to above normal precip for days 8-14. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...An Arctic cold front will move southeast across the area this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and squalls will accompany the front. Will continue to mention PROB30 for any snow squalls which should be brief lasting around 20 minutes or less. Time frame looks to be between 16z-21z from KGFL to KALB to KPSF. The squalls should weaken prior to reaching KPOU. Mainly VFR conditions will occur through the 24 hour TAF period, but brief IFR/LIFR vsby and MVFR cigs are possible within the snow squalls. Also a few hour period of MVFR cigs may occur at KGFL after 12z this morning. Skies will clear later this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt developing. Gusts of 30-40 kt are also likely with any snow squalls. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt this evening. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record lows for December 5th: Site: Record Low (Year) Forecast Low tonight KGFL -6F (1989) -7F KALB 2F (1989) 1F KPOU 7F (1966, 1989) 5F KPSF 0F (1926) -2F && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...35 SHORT TERM...35 LONG TERM...35 AVIATION...07 CLIMATE...35 ####018005879#### FXUS61 KBGM 040708 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 208 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic front will push through the region today, producing snow showers and possibly a few snow squalls. Behind the front, cold conditions are expected with wind chill temperatures dropping below zero by early Friday morning. There will plenty of chances for light snow over the next week as several fast moving clipper systems push through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front or arctic front will push through the region today, bringing the potential for snow squalls. Instability is modest with NAM showing 25-50 J/kg of MUCAPE across central NY. Forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates, but one thing to note from the soundings are lowering equilibrium levels starting late morning through the afternoon. If the model soundings are correct, then the best chance for squalls will be mid to late morning through early afternoon, otherwise, away from the lakes, the DGZ will shrink as drier air filters down and unzips the column. Forecast sounding are also showing the potential for strong gusts, causing drifting snow and further reduced visibility at times in the heavier snow showers/squalls. The best chance to see heavier snow showers or squalls will mainly be over central NY, but a few snow showers could make it down into northeast PA. Behind the front, flow will turn from westerly to northwesterly. Strong cold air advection will occur with T850 dropping to -15C to -18C. This will allow a transition to lake effect snow bands this afternoon into this evening. Overall snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over north central NY. Localized higher totals are possible within the snow bands, otherwise mainly expecting 1 to 2 inches areas south of the advisory. A winter weather advisory remains for Onondaga and Madison counties. There was some consideration for including Oneida County in an advisory as well, with amounts possibly topping 4", but confidence is not quite there and if a band does set up over Oneida, then a short fuse winter weather advisory can always be posted at a later time. The lake effect showers will taper off late tonight into early Friday morning as ridging builds in. The low temperatures tonight will be the coldest of the season so far as the arctic air mass settles overhead. Lows will range from 5 below zero to 10 above with wind chill values dipping below -10F in some areas across central NY. High pressure slides east on Friday and this will allow warmer return flow to take hold by Friday afternoon, increasing temperatures some. However, highs Friday afternoon will still be about 10 degrees below normal for early December. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Overnight temperatures will not be as cold as the previous night, but still chilly. Lows will range from the low to upper teens across much of the region, but a few spots in northern Oneida will likely hit single digits. A weak short wave approaches the region on Saturday bringing another chance of show showers mainly over central NY. Otherwise southerly flow will help temperatures rebound to the low to mid 30s. Temperatures Saturday night will range in the upper teens to low 20s. Light snowfall accumulations across the northern CWA should be less than an inch through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Zonal flow will continue through at least mid week. Several fast moving clipper systems will have the potential to impact through region through the period, bringing multiple rounds of snow showers to the area. Uncertainty in the timing of these systems is to be expected this far out and therefore NBM PoPs were used straight up. Despite the multiple chances for nuisance snow in the long term, no significant storm systems are expected at this time and any snow accumulations will likely be minor. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions remain in place early this morning with some light snow moving across CNY that occasionally can produce MVFR visibility over the next couple of hours. An arctic front is expected to pass through the region between 13Z and 18Z with snow showers along the front. Some of the showers along the front could become squalls with LIFR vis due to the falling snow and winds. Given the scattered nature of the snow showers and isolated squalls, Prob30 groups remain in the TAFs highlighting the best timing of precipitation. Confidence is highest for SYR and RME. Lake effect snow showers develop behind the front and continue into the early evening hours, mainly for the CNY terminals. A heavier lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario looks to set up near SYR around 19Z and linger around there for 3 to 4 hours before shifting south and weakening. This band is expected to produce LIFR restrictions. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, mainly during the afternoon and especially at the Central NY terminals. Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches the region. Monday...High pressure trying to build in, mainly VFR outside of CNY where lake effect snow showers may persist. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ018-036. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MPK NEAR TERM...ES/MPK SHORT TERM...ES/MPK LONG TERM...BJG/MPK AVIATION...AJG/DK ####018006863#### FXUS62 KILM 040709 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 209 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will hold through today before a weak backdoor cold front drops through late Thursday. Rain chances will increase substantially Friday as a storm system takes shape to our south along the lingering front. Additional disturbances will likely maintain rain chances through the weekend into early next week. Mostly dry conditions may return by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clearing skies have lead to fog development across the area. Thus far not seeing much in the way of significant visibility restrictions and it could turn out visibility bounces around a lot tonight and dense fog remains limited. While the lower portion of the boundary layer is very moist given recent rains, the upper half of the boundary layer may be dry enough to thwart the development of dense fog. Will continue to monitor in the event an advisory is needed. Also worth noting that with temperatures right around or even below freezing tonight, dense fog could result in freezing fog. Complex pattern setting up with a weak cold front dropping in from the north while a southern stream system coalesces along the western Gulf Coast. The front arrives in the area this evening, stalling as it ends up parallel to the flow aloft. The mid-level pattern remains static through tonight, keeping the front in the area while the low along the Gulf Coast slowly marches east. Given the volume of dry air presently over the region think it will take a while before any rainfall arrives. Today will be dry across the region although with clouds gradually increasing through the day. Light drizzle/rain will slowly spread over the area from southwest to northeast starting this evening and by daybreak Fri rain should cover the entire forecast area. Isentropic lift is pretty weak this evening and the first batch of rain may struggle to measure, especially given the amount of low level dry air. Through about 06Z or so rainfall looks spotty and light. After 06Z and closer to daybreak lift ramps up, especially across northeast SC. Rainfall bordering on moderate intensity is possible across SC just as the near term comes to an end. Temperatures end up a few degrees below normal today, but cloud cover will help keep tonight's lows near to slightly above normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Temps Friday will take a bit of a hit behind a backdoor cold front that will stall offshore as waves of low pressure move along them bringing Gulf moisture. High pressure moving offshore to our NE through Friday will also put us in return flow, however a wedge will exist at the surface preventing much warming. This will make for a cold, rainy Friday and Friday night. The majority of the area should see another inch or so of rain, with lesser totals possible west of I95. The wedge will erode into Saturday with slightly warmer conditions but still near 50. Rain will continue but with a slight decrease in coverage inland as the front (and low pressure along it) moves further away through the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A chance of rain could linger through Sunday as the front moves out to sea but we still have some return flow. The cold front to end rain chances look to move through by Monday with high pressure building in for Tuesday, dry conditions returning. We have that setup where cold air will be chasing the moisture Sunday night into Monday morning so we'll need to keep an eye on how the temperatures shake out to see if wintry precip is possible, but for now they look to miss each other, dry air where the colder temperatures are. High pressure will hold with cold, dry weather through the rest of the period though another front may be approaching. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds linger along the coast, although showing signs of breaking up. Inland skies are mostly clear with only patches of high cloud passing at times. Calm winds coupled with recent heavy rains should allow for fog development, possibly even freezing fog given forecast and observed temperatures at inland terminals. Some uncertainty given the dryness of the air at the top of the boundary layer. Instead of prolonged dense fog, it could be fog develops then dissipates with the cycle repeating. Confidence in development of IFR visibility is low. Widespread VFR returns shortly after sunrise and continues through 06Z. Winds will be light to calm with skies clouding up during the day as cirrus spreads north. Cloud bases will gradually lower during the day. Potential for some brief MVFR conditions late tonight at FLO as next system starts to spread drizzle/light rain north, but currently it appears deteriorating flight conditions are more likely to arrive after 06Z and not before. Extended Outlook...Widespread and prolonged MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility likely through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light offshore flow for much of today into tonight as a weak cold front drops into the area. Surface high to the northwest shifts east this evening and northeast flow sets up by midnight. Gradient tightens up a bit, leading to a slight increase in northeast flow, especially across NC waters. Nothing approaching headline criteria, but speeds will be on the high end of the 10-15 kt range. Seas 2 ft into tonight before some 3 ft seas start to creep in from the north and east. A southeast swell will be dominant today and tonight with a southerly wind wave becoming northerly later tonight. Friday through Tuesday...We'll start with a NE surge behind a backdoor cold front, NE flow increasing to ~15 kts in the morning. Flow will become more offshore and ~10 kts through the day where they'll stay through Saturday. Sunday marine conditions will start to deteriorate due to a wave of low pressure and approaching cold front, NE winds will increase to 15-20 kts with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through the rest of the period due to wind gusts and seas. Seas 2-3 ft with the aforementioned worsening conditions starting Sunday/Sunday night, seas increasing to 4-6 ft through Monday. Conditions may start to improve through Tuesday due to building high pressure. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW