####018002296#### FXUS63 KTOP 092200 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 500 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable temperatures in the 70s. - Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A very nice afternoon is underway across northeastern Kansas as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s area-wide. Zooming out a bit, a retrograding mid-level low is beginning to separate from the positively-tilted wave entering the northeastern US, taking on a Rex blocking pattern over the western US. This should help to mitigate moisture advection into the area over the next few days and keep the area dry. By Friday, expect similar conditions to this afternoon with temperatures topping out around the mid 70s. By Saturday night, the blocking pattern will begin to break down and push the upper low into the central Plains, increasing rain chances Sunday and into early next week. Instability and shear needed for strong to severe weather will stay south of the area, so mainly expecting widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder through Monday evening. Long range ensemble guidance depicts a wide area of 0.5-1 inch precipitation totals through Tuesday morning with the highest totals in southern and central Kansas and lesser totals further north. Precipitation moves out Tuesday with moisture and shear increasing through the remainder of the week. With some waves passing over the central Plains Wednesday through the end of the week, chances for rain and storms will return to the area once again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected. Minor gusts and a few cumulus around FL050 should diminish very early with sunset. Despite light winds and little cloud cover, crossover temperatures are a few degrees below even the coldest low temperature guidance so no diurnal BR/FG is anticipated. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Poage ####018006135#### FXUS64 KMAF 092201 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 501 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over southeast Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front lies menacingly just north of KMAF, hung up due to increasing westerlies and diurnal heating. This will allow pleasant temperatures this afternoon before the front resumes its southwesterly intrusion with loss of diurnal heating. The Latest NAM puts it down near the border by 12Z Friday. Despite this, overnight minimums should remain a couple of degrees above normal. The more pronounced cooling sets in Friday as CAA continues in the wake of the front, and clouds increase. Highs look to come in ~ 8- 10F below normal. Models are persistent in developing convection early in the lower Trans Pecos, spreading north and west during the day in upslope flow and along the front. This, along with cooler temperatures, will bring a respite to critical fire weather. Friday night, the dryline will retreat beyond KELP. The upper trough will begin approaching from the west, and large-scale ascent will expand convection westward, hopefully bringing much-=needed relief to the drought-stricken higher terrain. Lows should come in 2-4F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 We find ourselves still in the post-frontal setup on Saturday with persistent east-southeasterly flow supplying ample moisture (Td ~55- 60 CWA-wide) and shoving the dryline back near El Paso's longitude. Meanwhile, the upper low left freely spinning across the Great Basin finally gets picked up by the jet stream and ejects towards AZ/NM. While this trough doesn't provide much in the form of synoptic ascent, some steeping of the lapse rates could lead to some instability to work with. The stationary front draped just south/west of the Pecos Valley along with easterly upslope surface flow and southwesterly flow aloft should help get some showers and storms going as early as Saturday morning. The ensembles and NBM maintain the thinking in achieving appreciable rainfall with a 60- 80% chance of seeing at least 0.1" and 50-60% of seeing over an inch. With some steeping of the lapse rates with the approaching trough, some severe weather is possible, especially south of the stalled boundary. Surfaced based storms here could see isolated instances of large hail and strong winds. North of the stalled front, convection will still be possible but with it being elevated nature, severe weather chances will be very low (but still possible). It seems there will be 2 main round of rain this weekend associated with the ejecting trough- the first round comes Saturday morning into the early afternoon with a second round of rain for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Per usual, the highest precipitation chances and greatest rainfall totals will likely set up across the eastern Permian Basin, though areas of convective rainfall could lead to local maxima in precip. As the trough swings through Sunday, subsidence and drier air brings an end to the rain chances late Sunday with quieter conditions following on Monday and Tuesday with weak ridging. Temperatures on Saturday will be largely driven by the expectation of thick cloud cover and the rainfall chances which will likely lead to a pleasantly cool day. High temperatures likely are limited to the 60s and low 70s in areas of clouds and rain with 80s and 90s focused along the Rio Grande. A rapid rebound come son Thursday with clearing skies in the afternoon allowing for highs in the 80s for most. Conditions stay seasonably warm on Monday and Tuesday with the upper ridge before the next cold front looks to arrive sometime in the middle part of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Surface analysis shows the cold front still stalled just northeast of the terminals at 22Z. This will resume surging southwest w/loss of daytime heating, w/the latest NAM pegging fropa at KMAF at 00Z, and clearing the other terminals by 06Z. Latest NBM brings in a bit more MVFR stratus for a longer period Friday morning, but cigs should lift to VFR mid-afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Near-critical conditions have developed this afternoon primarily across the western high terrain where very dry and breezy conditions linger. Fortunately, a cold front sweeps into the region this evening, brining much better moisture into the area and some relief to fire weather conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, with the hope that wetting rains can bring some much-needed relief to the ERCs which are exceeding the 75th percentile for a majority of the area. Dry air and elevated fire weather may return out west for Sunday. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 58 78 59 68 / 0 20 20 80 Carlsbad 56 75 58 71 / 0 10 40 70 Dryden 66 80 64 77 / 10 40 40 60 Fort Stockton 61 76 62 75 / 10 30 40 80 Guadalupe Pass 54 69 55 69 / 0 10 40 70 Hobbs 54 75 55 66 / 0 10 30 80 Marfa 50 80 54 81 / 0 20 40 70 Midland Intl Airport 59 77 59 68 / 0 20 30 80 Odessa 60 77 60 68 / 0 20 30 80 Wink 60 76 61 73 / 0 10 40 80 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44 ####018006260#### FXUS66 KPQR 092201 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 301 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A large eastward tilted ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through early this weekend, bringing dry weather and rapidly warming temperatures. Inland valley temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s Friday and Saturday - could see some record breaking highs in urban areas. Saturday night into Sunday, winds will shift from offshore to onshore flow, bringing cool yet still above seasonal norm temperatures into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday...Ridge continues to build and tilt eastward into our region, maintaining clear skies. Today and tomorrow, as the ridge further tilts and moves inland, offshore flow will increase over the PNW. Temperatures begin to warm today (up to low 80s inland), with a rapid increase into tomorrow as offshore flow and ridge strengthening continues. As a result, Friday and Saturday are expected to be the warmest days this week. With these aforementioned favorable conditions, there is high confidence (90-95%) that inland valley temperatures will exceed 85 degrees F on Friday and Saturday. There is a 50-60% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees F on Friday and Saturday, however it looks to be mostly focused on the Portland/Vancouver Metro and areas surrounding. Other inland urban areas, such as Salem/Corvallis/Eugene, have a 10-20% chance to exceed 90 degrees F on Friday and Saturday. There is more uncertainty for temperatures at the coast, as some model guidance is suggesting that the ridge will shift inland Saturday, leading to onshore flow moderating and cooling temperatures. As a result, expect upper 70s to low 80s Friday with a 50-70% chance to exceed 80 degrees F, decreasing to upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday. With such unseasonably warm temperatures for early Spring and coming out of cold weather, there is no doubt people will visit rivers, lakes, and the ocean for SW Washington and NW Oregon this weekend. It is important to remember that rivers and lakes remain dangerously cold with water temperatures mainly in the 40s. Such temperatures can easily cause cold water shock for those without proper cold water gear, resulting in an involuntary gasp of air that can lead to drowning. Be sure to bring a life vest and be extremely cautious around rivers, especially with snowmelt causing cold and swift currents! -JH .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...Widespread cooling is expected Sunday as the upper-level shortwave trough moves towards the coast, weakening the inverted thermal trough overhead and pushing it eastward. As this trough gets pushed eastward over the Cascades, widespread westerly onshore flow will return, bringing more widespread cooling (cooling to low 70s by Monday). The marine layer will likely remain too shallow for much in the way of morning cloudiness inland through Sunday, but the upper ridge may weaken enough for some low clouds to push into the inland valleys for a few hours Monday morning. Cannot rule out patchy light drizzle at the north coast Monday morning as well, especially given the weak upper-level shortwave progressing overhead providing some added support just north of our CWA. WPC cluster analysis is beginning to move more towards a solution favoring ridging re-developing by the middle of next week. Around 80% of ensemble members display relatively strong ridging by Wednesday next week, allowing temperatures to climb back into the low to mid 70s. Still around a 20% chance of another trough developing, which would bring more seasonable temperatures and light rain showers back to the area. -JH/Schuldt && .AVIATION...High pressure will remain over the region, with dry northerly flow aloft. This will maintain VFR under mostly clear skies. North winds gusting 15 to 25 kt, except east winds out of the Columbia River Gorge gusting up to 30 kt through this evening. Winds ease tonight, with VFR continuing. PDX AND APPROACHES...High pressure will maintain VFR with mostly clear skies. East to northeast winds with gusts 15-20 kt for the afternoon into early evening. && .MARINE...No big changes, as strong high pressure remains anchored offshore. Meanwhile, thermal trough will hug the south Oregon coast, building northward later today into tonight. With this pattern, will maintain gusty northerly winds on the waters, with gusts 20 to 25 kt today north of Cascade Head, and gusts 25 to 30 kt to the south. As thermal trough builds north later today into tonight, will see winds near shore relax back below 20 kt. Gusty winds will continue offshore well into overnight hours. Thermal trough will push the tighter pressure gradient farther offshore later tonight and Fri, as the thermal trough expands northward along the north Oregon coast. This will push the gusty north winds farther offshore, with lighter east to northeast winds on most of the coast waters, especially nearshore. But, with the thermal trough shifting back to the Coast Range Fri evening, will see wind flip back to north or northwest Fri evening. Seas mostly 5 to 8 ft today into tonight, with the higher seas more choppy as being dominated by the gusty winds. Seas stay at 5 to 6 ft into Sat. Thermal trough will shift much farther inland on Sat and Sun, with north to northwest winds returning to the coastal waters. Will not be as strong, but generally gusts 20 to 25 kt at times in the afternoons and early evenings. Seas mostly 6 to 8 ft. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253- 271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland