####018009809#### FXUS61 KOKX 110334 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1034 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across late tonight into Thursday morning. Associated low pressure will move well north and deepen, eventually tracking into the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. Weak high pressure will follows for Friday. A couple of clipper lows over the Midwest on Saturday will send another shot of Arctic air across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Strong high pressure will then build in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Points: * Light rain across eastern CT/Long Island should end by midnight. * Black ice formation possibility for early Thursday morning, highly dependent on winds. If wind speeds are less than 10 mph, this potential will increase. Otherwise, not expecting much with higher winds helping to dry out surfaces. Updated current forecast for a quicker end time to the precipitation as the back edge is entering the Lower Hudson Valley. Additionally, light snow is still falling well north/west. Increased snow totals to around an inch max, mainly across Western Passaic, Orange, and Putnam counties. Mid level vort max moves through this evening. Upper level jet streak left front quad moves in late this afternoon and then pushes northeast away from the region tonight. A strong cold front will approach heading into this evening. Highest PoP for NYC metro and points east this evening. PoP then trends down late this evening into the overnight as forcing weakens. Forecast low temps will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Windy Thursday into Thursday night with strong cold air advection. Peak wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph. Occasional gust up to 50 mph possible. * Winds trend down late Thursday night into Friday. * Much colder than normal temperatures. Max temperatures forecast mainly in the 30s Thursday and Friday. * Mainly dry but some possible snow showers Thursday and Friday night into early Saturday morning. Overall pattern jet stream south of the region. Mean trough across the Northeast but not a sharp trough, extending from North Central US to Mid-Atlantic. Mid level cutoff low moving into Northern New England Thursday, then moves into Canadian Maritimes Thursday night into Friday. Quasi-zonal mid flow across the area for Friday night. At the surface, a strengthening low moves through Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. Weak high pressure builds into the local region Friday into Friday night. Mid level PVA with strong cold air advection could bring in a few snow showers Thursday into Thursday night across the region. The NAM model guidance indicating more steep lapse rates and some elevated CAPE, with some possibility for snow squalls. However, this is just one model but did increase above NBM POPs after taking much of the CAMs into account. Pressure gradient will be getting more tight between low pressure well northeast of the region and high pressure well to the southwest of the region. A gusty NW flow will be in place during the day and at night. Temperatures much colder than normal Thursday through Friday night. Wind gusts up to near 35 to 40 mph expected with some peak gusts up to 45 mph. This is just under advisory thresholds. NAM Bufkit soundings and HREF showing possibility of some higher wind gusts, up to near 50 mph mixing down to surface. The GFS Bufkit is much less however and the forecast wind gusts already are several kts higher than the NBM 90th percentile so not enough confidence to go with wind advisory at this time. GFS LAMP guidance for some locations also showing gusts closer to 30 kts as opposed to 35 kt for mid to late afternoon Thursday. Another low probability for snow showers late Friday night into early Saturday morning with a weakening low but much of the forecast guidance has trended drier for this, showing more high pressure presence. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Points: * A clipper low may bring in light snow or flurries for Saturday morning. The trend is toward a drier forecast. * Another clipper low and associated Arctic cold front and upper level disturbance will bring a better chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. * A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Weakening low pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys Friday approaches the area, while another weak low Friday night passes over the northern Great Lakes. While the first low generally dissipates with its approach it may induce a weak low off the East Coast Saturday morning along with some weak vorticity in the upper levels, giving eastern areas just a slight chance for snow. The second low passes well north of the area into Saturday night and Sunday morning, weakening as it does so. At the same time, another fast moving vorticity max rounds the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the forecast area. Additionally, and arctic front moves through on Sunday. Miller B type cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through, likely too late to have impact. This gives the region a better chance for snow for the entire area. Though it is too far out to discuss any accumulations, any potential snow accumulations are expected to be light at this time. After the passage of the cold front, colder conditions move in later Sunday through Tue, and it could also become blustery Sunday night into Mon due to the tight pressure gradient between the intensifying low as it heads toward Atlantic Canada and high pressure building to the west. The high should build over the area on Tue and remain in control through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry through then. Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Mon, with lows in the teens and lower 20s, and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills early Mon morning could drop to the single digits throughout. Only slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle 30s) expected for Tue, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front approaching from the west will pass through late tonight. MVFR cigs persisting at KSWF/KHPN/KBDR in the wake of rain which has pulled off to the east, impacting KGON which is also MVFR. Rain there ends before midnight and cond improve to VFR throughout overnight. VFR remains for the rest of the TAF period. While not widespread enough to mention, a brief stray snow shower is possible daytime Thursday. Winds were veering a little more WSW this evening, with still some gusts up to 20 kt in spots. Winds shift to the WNW after cold fropa late tonight/early Thursday. WNW flow daytime Thursday with gusts 30-35 kt. A brief gust to 40 kt is possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional than frequent tonight. Stronger WNW winds with gusts over 30 kt may arrive as early as 11Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds G25kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers at night. W winds G20kt. Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W winds G15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower in any snow. NW winds G20-25kt. Monday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale Warnings on the ocean have been replaced with SCA for the overnight, along with the non ocean waters. For Thursday into Thursday evening, another round of gales is likely for all waters. These gales will then be more over the ocean for late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Wind gusts at SCA levels then are forecast to follow for Friday before dropping below SCA thresholds Friday night. The eastern ocean will probably have some lingering SCA conditions (both wind gusts and seas) Friday evening before dropping below SCA thresholds. Otherwise, below SCA conditions forecast for other waters Friday night. After an upper level disturbance passes by, SCA conditions should return to the ocean waters Sat afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Saturday night, diminishing late Saturday night After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should build to 5-9 ft on the ocean, and around 5 ft on the central/eastern sound. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected attm. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ338-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/JP NEAR TERM...BG/JM/JP SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...BG MARINE...JM/JP HYDROLOGY...JM/JP