####018005539#### FXUS61 KBGM 251756 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 156 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control with dry weather through Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 130 pm update... A large surface remains in control this period as it moves southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday night. With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures rising to around 30. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 2 PM Update No significant changes to the short term with this update. A line of showers still looks to push through the area on Saturday, weakening as it moves east into a drier airmass. Rainfall amounts will be light; less than a tenth of an inch. Any filtered sun in the morning gives way to mainly cloudy skies for the afternoon and evening. Highs are near average in the upper 50s to mid-60s with a steady south wind 8-15 mph. A warm front pushes through Saturday night, and model guidance continues to show elevated instability moving in...this will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast overnight. Milder with lows in the 40s to low 50s as south winds continue 5 to 15 mph. Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday, but there will be weak waves and instability around. The highest MLCAPE values remain confined to areas west of I-81, where up to 500 J/Kg is possible. Therefore, it will be partly sunny with scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms around. Went above the deterministic NBM, closer to the 50th percentile data...which gives highs in the 70s to even around 80 in the deeper valleys of the central southern tier region. The warm front continues to lift north Sunday night, and there could be a few lingering showers along it. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm with lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 PM Update Monday will be the warmest day of the week, and of the spring season so far. The forecast is trending drier, with more upper level ridging and capping on Monday. Therefore, decided to again go closer to the NBM 50th percentile for highs, as we are yet to hit full green up and the increasing sunshine should boost temperatures. Look for highs well into the 80s for most locations...with perhaps some upper 70s in the higher elevations of the Catskills still. Dew points reach the lower 60s, so it will certainly feel quite warm to even hot out there in the afternoon. The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days. Model guidance is showing a zonal to transient ridge pattern over the area for midweek; this will keep things mainly dry, but another frontal passage is possible either Wednesday or Thursday depending on how the timing works out. Temperatures are trending warmer, still well into the 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday...it looks to finally cool back down closer to climo by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 120 pm update... High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds under 10 knots this afternoon become light and variable this evening. Friday around 14z east to southeast winds pick up to 5 kts. Outlook... Friday night...VFR. Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings. Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM/MWG AVIATION...TAC ####018005978#### FXUS66 KMTR 251756 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend Sat-Tue. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A coastal surface trough will continue to weaken and move inland, allowing a low-amplitude ridge to build. This will cause the marine layer to compress to about 1,500 ft. Compared to the 4,000 ft deep marine layer observed Wednesday, the low overcast today will be more limited to the coast and adjacent low valleys. The standard NW flow will also return as the trough weakens. The cool temperatures will continue, with highs generally in the 60s. This ridge pattern will be short lived as a cold front moves through on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Some light rain is possible starting ahead of the cold front Thursday night, with low PoPs lasting though the day Friday. 22/26 members of the SREF have some precipitation falling at SFO between Thursday night and Friday, but only 4 of them are above 0.05" of accumulation, and none of those are above 0.1". Similar results are found throughout the Bay Area, with slightly more bullish results along the Central Coast. As such, I have increased the NBM PoPs to at least 15% to ensure a slight chance of rain is mentioned, but did not increase the QPF from the WPC guidance, which is near zero. There's a decent chance some rain falls late Thursday-Friday, but it will be light. The bigger impact will be from strong NW winds behind the cold front. 24 hours ago, it looked like a slam dunk wind advisory along the coast, but the models have backed off since then. NBM is on the high side of the guidance, but only shows a slight chance of exceeding 40 mph gusts along the coast on Friday night. The timing of the strongest winds has also shifted from Friday afternoon to overnight Friday. Based on this, and the fact that other deterministic models are even less aggressive, we are not hoisting a wind advisory at this time. That being said, there will be plenty of gusts above 30 mph on Friday and Saturday with some minor impacts expected. The weekend will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures, although Saturday will still be breezy. The gradual warm-up will continue through early next week, as the region returns to seasonal temperatures under mostly clear skies. The next threat of rain arrives late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Satellite shows low ceilings shuffling through the region causing MVFR conditions over most of the terminals. Onshore winds will continue to build to breezy and gusty through the afternoon with some terminals seeing relief overnight to moderate winds. SF Bay terminals are expected to remain gusty and breezy through the TAF period. Stratus may lift to VFR for brief moments this afternoon before lower ceilings will return tonight bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions overnight. VFR is expected to return by Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR with W/NW breezy and gusty winds. Models suggest a short brief moment of VFR near the afternoon but had low confidence to include in TAFs. If lifting does occur, expect MVFR conditions to linger near by the terminals. Winds will remain breezy and gusty through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR through most of the TAF period for KMRY but KSNS may see a temporary lift to VFR this afternoon. Winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon, before transitions to moderate overnight. VFR expected to prevail after 12Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with occasional fresh to strong gusts through various portions of the coastal waters, mostly in the southern waters. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018009419#### FXUS63 KGLD 251758 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1158 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather remains forecast for today (Thursday) with very large hail (1" - 3"+) and tornadoes (including the possibility of long-lived or significant tornadoes) as the main threats. The severe weather is forecast to impact the area during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance that a cap or a different environmental factor will prevent severe weather. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday for Kit Carson, Cheyenne [CO], Wallace, and Greeley counties during the afternoon and early evening hours. - Blowing dust chances have lowered, but could still see hazy skies and some degraded air quality this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Severe weather is expected across the Tri-State area this afternoon into the overnight hours. The dryline looks to be setting up near I- 70 and Highway 27. Locations to the southwest of the line are drying out as southerly winds will continue gusting above 25 MPH. Later this afternoon, RH values behind the dryline will drop into the lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for locations behind the dryline. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect for the locations where prolonged critical fire weather conditions are expected. Blowing dust will also be possible (~15% chance) in locations along and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Oakley, KS. Along the Kansas Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust. Visibility reductions down to around 3 miles are possible in plumes of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out near source regions. The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the evening. SPC has kept an Enhanced risk in the southeastern 1/3 CWA for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail hazards. There is still a 10% chance that the cap will prevent any storms from firing, but confidence is lowing due to clearing skies. If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe storms will form and all hazards will be possible becoming a mess of storms later on. The main hazards will be tornadoes and hail. The entire Tri-State area will have potential to see severe weather, but chances increase in the Enhanced risk area. Storms are expected to start firing around 19-21Z with the highlight of the severe storms being 22Z-03Z. The prime location for the severe storms will be in the Enhance risk area and the storms will move to the northeast. After 03Z, the severe weather threat will lower over the following 9 hours. During this time, we will begin to get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system with most of that falling north of highway 36. As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are already expected due to the pressure rises. Temperatures overnight tonight will cool to the upper 40s. High temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and the southern CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, several rounds of precipitation look to impact the region in the extended period. For the upcoming weekend, a cutoff slow-moving 500mb low works off the central Rockies on Saturday. With an amplified ridge over the eastern portion of the country, this system is expected to make a N/NE trek from western Kansas then lift into southwest Nebraska for late Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure moves into southwest Kansas ahead of the upper low, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward towards eastern KS/NE. This low does kick a bit faster eastward than the upper support. This will allow for an easterly upslope flow to shift northerly as the low passes. The result of this surface low/front moving through the area, combined with upper level support, will be chances for showers and thunderstorms to occur. Based on the surface low track from both the GFS/ECMWF, highest pops/QPF chances favor locales along/north of I- 70 as 80-90% chance for precip will occur, tapering to a 40-60% chance south of the Interstate. QPF numbers are widely ranging over this event, from 0.20-0.30" east and south, to 0.70-1.30" in northern/western locales. These higher numbers are aided by the upslope easterly early on. The bulk of the QPF will occur Sat/Sat night. With PW values approaching 0.80-1.00" especially for N/NE zones, hydro concerns could crop up. This will be on top of what areas have already received rain from Thu-Thu night. Looking for the surface gradient Saturday night into Sunday to increase/tighten with gust potential into the 30-40 mph range before tapering late Sunday. Going into next week, zonal flow aloft expected through midweek with some amplification late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a couple weak shortwaves riding through the zonal flow that will help to trigger a few rw/trw especially in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Surface low/front across KS during this time will focus moisture/instability mainly east of the CWA, but eastern zones could see 15-20% chance for convection. ECMWF/GFS do differ on this as strong ridging aloft does occur late for the ECMWF, so will stay close to the latest NBM for precip potential. At most, above normal temperatures are expected as 850 mb temps will range in +14c to +19c range but will be highly dependent on cloud cover especially towards the midweek timeframe. For temps, going into the upcoming weekend, with a frontal boundary over southern portions of the area Saturday a wide range in daytime highs is expected with upper 50s to mid 60s west and upper 60s to the upper 70s east. Warmest areas will be in the extreme E/SE portions of the CWA. On Sunday, cooler with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Going into next week, another warmup begins with highs on Monday reaching into the 70s, upper 70s to mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking Thursday with 80s area-wide. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the mid 30s west into the mid 40s east. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected. Next week, overnight lows will range mainly in the 40s Monday and Tuesday nights, trending warmer for Wednesday and Thursday nights with a range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Strong to significantly severe storms are expected to impact the region tonight and could to reduce categories at both KGLD and KMCK. Stratus will continue to impact both sites over the next few hours, at least. Clearing is occurring at KGLD and approaching KMCK. Around 21Z is when storms are expected to start firing and last into the night, however lingering showers and storms will last throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. A low pressure system will be moving through and cause winds to become northwesterly overnight. Strong winds are expected tomorrow from the northwest and gusty winds will continue today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84- hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend. These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on track and movement and overall coverage. Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington Colorado to McCook Nebraska. Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see more storms over the weekend. There are currently no Flood Watches in effect. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for KSZ027-041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...CA HYDROLOGY... ####018010030#### FXUS65 KPUB 251759 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1159 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds gusting to 55 mph, briefly higher, and high fire danger expected for portions of the area today. - There is a low risk of strong to severe storm or two across the far eastern plains this afternoon. - Cooler and wetter conditions across the area this weekend as a new low pressure system moves across Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Overall, relatively quiet early this morning, though am keeping a close eye on some low level stratus and fog that has developed across eastern El Paso county in an axis of higher dew point air. Lee surface low already in place has helped to usher in 40s to 50s dew points well into Colorado this morning and will help to keep this stratus/fog in place across the eastern plains. Steadier/Stronger winds should help to limit the dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some patchy dense fog this morning. Additionally, forecast soundings in fair agreement with highlighting the drier air and it's push east today, which looks to start rather early this morning. This should also aid in keeping any dense fog limited this morning. Elsewhere, mid/high clouds also in place across southeast Colorado, due to strong WAA ongoing across the region. Despite the WAA this morning and even MUCAPE pushing 1500 j/kg in place, strongest ascent has already begun to push east with this trend continuing this morning. So, don't anticipate any precip this morning. An upper level low/trough lifting across the region today will bring high winds with high fire danger, mountain snow, and a low risk of strong to severe storms across southern Colorado. Of most concern and is still where confidence is highest, is the high fire danger across southern Colorado. Still not expecting areawide extreme conditions, but will be rather close across the far southeast plains. Highest concerns for the high end critical fire weather conditions will be for areas along and south of Highway 50 this afternoon into the evening. Areawide RH values well into the single digits are likely along with west southwest winds gusting up to 50- 55 mph. There still looks to be a medium to high chance for a few gusts to around 60 mph late this afternoon into early south of Highway 50, as the mid/upper jet pushes overhead. In terms of High Wind Warning criteria, don't anticipate any headlines at this time given the limited nature and short duration of these higher gusts. At this point, the forecast of above normal temperatures will into the 70s and 80s and dew points in the teens seems reasonable. As noted in previous forecasts, still think some single digit dew points will be possible. As this trough pushes overhead late today into the evening, will see an uptick in snow development across the Continental Divide, especially the central mountains. This looks to be a small window of development with overall minor amounts, however, would not be surprised to see brief periods of moderate to maybe/briefly heavy snow before this snow winds down during the overnight hours. Additional precip chances this afternoon into early evening will consist of small window for strong to severe storms across the far eastern plains. This potential will be situated along and east/northeast of a deepening surface low and where a ribbon of higher moisture and instability will reside. Latest trends still suggest that a quickly deepening lee surface low and deep mixing will assist with pushing the higher moisture/instability to the east/northeast prior to storm initiation. With this occurring, think the chances for severe storms will be low, and with the severe threat just to the east in Kansas. Given how close the gradient from dry and stable conditions to very moist and unstable will be, won't stray from current messaging of the possibility for strong/severe storms. Lastly, on the back side of this upper trough, will see moisture pivot south across the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide late this evening and then shift east/southeast into early Friday morning. This will allow an additional period of rain across the lower elevations, and with snow across the higher elevations. Amounts should remain low in this area tonight, but think a couple of inches of snow across Teller is possible. As always, think a brief period of snow across the Palmer Divide can't be ruled out, but am fairly confident of little to no snow accums and impacts tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Friday-Sunday... The initial upper-level low will move past us by early Friday morning. Cool, moist air will wrap around the back side of it as it moves further east, allowing showers to linger across our far eastern plains into the morning hours. Looking at the rest of the day, the second upper low will begin to push towards our area from the west. As it comes, more precipitation will move into the mountains during the afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall will pick up across the peaks of the Continental Divide, before moving to our southeast mountains and the Palmer Divide later in the day. High temperatures will be a factor in snow totals, especially across the Pikes Peak Region. For the higher terrain, most of the mountains and adjacent areas will be seeing 30s (at the peaks) to mid-50s. Meanwhile, the eastern plains will see 60s-70s. As the low moves and precipitation spreads eastwards, snow level and snowfall rate are going to be major factors in what kinds of accumulations we see. Right now our main areas of concern for snow- related impacts are the Central Mountains and most of Teller County. The Central Mountains should see upwards of 10 inches of snow or so between Friday and Saturday, though some locally higher amounts are possible. Meanwhile, Teller County will be seeing much less, 2 inches to about 6, but the heavy, wet nature of the snow could result in some travel impacts and pose risks based on how heavy it could be. Meanwhile, the top of Pikes Peak may see over a foot of that same heavy, wet snow. That being said, the track and speed of the incoming low is still in flux between models somewhat, so there is time for amounts to change. A northerly frontal surge will push across the plains Friday evening into Friday night as the upper-low moves through our area, allowing for precipitation to further spread over the Palmer Divide and into eastern Colorado. Thanks to the warm high temperatures from the day, that precipitation will fall as rain showers as opposed to snow. Upslope over the Palmer Divide, coupled with some strong moisture advection from the north thanks to lee cyclone formation at the surface, has really increased QPF estimates over the last few days. As the front pushes south, a low-level convergence axis will move with it, allowing for precipitation to spread south across parts of I-25 and east across parts of the eastern plains. Some of the showers that form could be locally enhanced due to the frontal axis, and while it is still a bit too early to say for sure a few thunderstorms cannot be totally ruled out. At the very least, areas along the front will see locally enhanced precipitation amounts early on Saturday. High temperatures will also be a fair bit cooler behind the front, with 50s-60s across most of the area and low-70s near the CO-KS border. The post-frontal airmass will keep Sunday on the cool, wetter side of things as the upper-low finished moving through Colorado and off to the northeast. Snow will continue across the mountains while rain showers persist over parts of the lower elevations, dwindling sometime Sunday afternoon. The end time for the precipitation will largely depend on the speed and track of the departing low and what kind of wrap-around moisture we get on the back end. Models are still showing some slight differences that far out, but overall late Sunday afternoon is the general consensus for things starting to dry out. Monday Onwards... Zonal flow will set in aloft over the area next week, leading to drier and slowly warming conditions Monday and Tuesday. Some embedded waves in the flow will begin to move in around midweek, meaning that fire weather conditions could return along with some slightly more unsettled conditions closer to the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Upper low pressure system sweeping across CO today will bring a variety of weather to the forecast area, with an increase in mid and high level cloudiness expected through the afternoon as well as increasing south-southwest winds, with gusts up to 30-35 kts expected. Highest wind gusts will likely occur over the southeast corner of CO, where gusts to 45 kts will be possible as well as isolated strong to possibly severe storms right along the eastern border between 20z-23z. KCOS: South winds to 30 kts becoming SW by 22z, then N-NW after 02z with VCSH with borken cloud deck at 090. 5SM and -shra between 04z-09z. KPUB: S-SW winds gusting to 35 kts through 01z, then NW. VCSH by 08z with broken cloud deck at 100. KALS: SW winds gusting to 35 kt through 02z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-225- 232-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOORE ####018009424#### FXUS63 KGLD 251759 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1159 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather remains forecast for today (Thursday) with very large hail (1" - 3"+) and tornadoes (including the possibility of long-lived or significant tornadoes) as the main threats. The severe weather is forecast to impact the area during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 10% chance that a cap or a different environmental factor will prevent severe weather. - A Red Flag Warning remains in effect Thursday for Kit Carson, Cheyenne [CO], Wallace, and Greeley counties during the afternoon and early evening hours. - Blowing dust chances have lowered, but could still see hazy skies and some degraded air quality this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Severe weather is expected across the Tri-State area this afternoon into the overnight hours. The dryline looks to be setting up near I- 70 and Highway 27. Locations to the southwest of the line are drying out as southerly winds will continue gusting above 25 MPH. Later this afternoon, RH values behind the dryline will drop into the lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for locations behind the dryline. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect for the locations where prolonged critical fire weather conditions are expected. Blowing dust will also be possible (~15% chance) in locations along and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Oakley, KS. Along the Kansas Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust. Visibility reductions down to around 3 miles are possible in plumes of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out near source regions. The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the evening. SPC has kept an Enhanced risk in the southeastern 1/3 CWA for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail hazards. There is still a 10% chance that the cap will prevent any storms from firing, but confidence is lowing due to clearing skies. If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe storms will form and all hazards will be possible becoming a mess of storms later on. The main hazards will be tornadoes and hail. The entire Tri-State area will have potential to see severe weather, but chances increase in the Enhanced risk area. Storms are expected to start firing around 19-21Z with the highlight of the severe storms being 22Z-03Z. The prime location for the severe storms will be in the Enhance risk area and the storms will move to the northeast. After 03Z, the severe weather threat will lower over the following 9 hours. During this time, we will begin to get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system with most of that falling north of highway 36. As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are already expected due to the pressure rises. Temperatures overnight tonight will cool to the upper 40s. High temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and the southern CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, several rounds of precipitation look to impact the region in the extended period. For the upcoming weekend, a cutoff slow-moving 500mb low works off the central Rockies on Saturday. With an amplified ridge over the eastern portion of the country, this system is expected to make a N/NE trek from western Kansas then lift into southwest Nebraska for late Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure moves into southwest Kansas ahead of the upper low, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward towards eastern KS/NE. This low does kick a bit faster eastward than the upper support. This will allow for an easterly upslope flow to shift northerly as the low passes. The result of this surface low/front moving through the area, combined with upper level support, will be chances for showers and thunderstorms to occur. Based on the surface low track from both the GFS/ECMWF, highest pops/QPF chances favor locales along/north of I- 70 as 80-90% chance for precip will occur, tapering to a 40-60% chance south of the Interstate. QPF numbers are widely ranging over this event, from 0.20-0.30" east and south, to 0.70-1.30" in northern/western locales. These higher numbers are aided by the upslope easterly early on. The bulk of the QPF will occur Sat/Sat night. With PW values approaching 0.80-1.00" especially for N/NE zones, hydro concerns could crop up. This will be on top of what areas have already received rain from Thu-Thu night. Looking for the surface gradient Saturday night into Sunday to increase/tighten with gust potential into the 30-40 mph range before tapering late Sunday. Going into next week, zonal flow aloft expected through midweek with some amplification late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a couple weak shortwaves riding through the zonal flow that will help to trigger a few rw/trw especially in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Surface low/front across KS during this time will focus moisture/instability mainly east of the CWA, but eastern zones could see 15-20% chance for convection. ECMWF/GFS do differ on this as strong ridging aloft does occur late for the ECMWF, so will stay close to the latest NBM for precip potential. At most, above normal temperatures are expected as 850 mb temps will range in +14c to +19c range but will be highly dependent on cloud cover especially towards the midweek timeframe. For temps, going into the upcoming weekend, with a frontal boundary over southern portions of the area Saturday a wide range in daytime highs is expected with upper 50s to mid 60s west and upper 60s to the upper 70s east. Warmest areas will be in the extreme E/SE portions of the CWA. On Sunday, cooler with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Going into next week, another warmup begins with highs on Monday reaching into the 70s, upper 70s to mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking Thursday with 80s area-wide. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the mid 30s west into the mid 40s east. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected. Next week, overnight lows will range mainly in the 40s Monday and Tuesday nights, trending warmer for Wednesday and Thursday nights with a range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Strong to significantly severe storms are expected to impact the region tonight and could to reduce categories at both KGLD and KMCK. Stratus will continue to impact both sites over the next few hours, at least. Clearing is occurring at KGLD and approaching KMCK. Around 21Z is when storms are expected to start firing and last into the night, however lingering showers and storms will last throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. A low pressure system will be moving through and cause winds to become northwesterly overnight. Strong winds are expected tomorrow from the northwest and gusty winds will continue today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84- hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend. These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on track and movement and overall coverage. Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington Colorado to McCook Nebraska. Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see more storms over the weekend. There are currently no Flood Watches in effect. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for KSZ027-041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...CA HYDROLOGY...JN