####018005607#### FXUS63 KBIS 171734 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1234 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms today. Isolated severe storms (level 1 out of 5) are possible in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. - Low to medium chances (20-40%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. Severe weather is not expected. - Low to medium chances (20-40%) for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms continue Tuesday through Wednesday, then only low chances (20%) late in the work week. - Seasonable temperatures are expected this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Embedded mid level impulses in quasi-zonal flow aloft coupled with weak instability will contribute to a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across western and central North Dakota. Uncertainty is high for any given location, so opted to keep POPs on the low side (20-30%). Main update with this forecast iteration was to POPs and cloud cover based on latest trends. All other forecast elements remain on track. UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Main change was to trend SKY and POPs with latest imagery and latest model output. UPDATE Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A small area of thunderstorms has developed just north of Minot, otherwise it was clear to partly cloudy across western and central ND early this morning. Made some minor adjustments to pops and sky cover based on latest radar and satellite imagery. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a little more development through the morning as the cold front pushes farther south and upper level instability increases. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Currently, weak low pressure was located over the area, ahead of an approaching cold front dropping south from Canada. Skies were partly cloudy and last nights evening convection has mostly dissipated except for an isolated shower over northwest ND. We remain within a northwest upper level flow. Although modest at best, elevated instability remains over the area with modest shear as well. Short term guidance has been overdoing the overnight convection and continues so. May take a look and see how the northwest convection is going in a bit and if not much has changed, drop from chance to slight chance early this morning. With that said, think there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms yet this morning, but probably more like mid to late morning as elevated instability and bulk shear aloft continue to increase. Forecast NAM soundings from Dickinson to Bismarck and Jamestown indicate 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCape with 30-40kts of bulk shear and little CIN, late this morning, then instability drop pretty quick this afternoon. If you go down to Ashley, instability increases to around 2000 J/kg with 35 to 40 knots of shear late morning, before also losing instability as drier air moves in this afternoon. SPC has pulled the marginal risk of severe storms (that was east of the forecast area) back west into the far southern James River Valley. Think there is a small window late morning into the early afternoon for a stronger to possibly severe storm here. The main hazards would be quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds. After early this afternoon, the threat for severe storms looks to be over for a while. At the surface high pressure builds over the area tonight, but jet energy over the area may provide enough forcing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday, with another wave bringing low chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected at this time Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper level ridging over the western U.S west amplifies and pushes east Wednesday through Friday. Northwest flow remains over the area so a low threat for a hit or miss thunderstorm will remain, but overall, precipitation chances will remain low for the second half of the work week. Temperatures remain seasonable through the forecast period. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. A little cooler on Tuesday and a little warmer on Thursday. Forecast lows are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Again, a little cooler on Tuesday, and with some upper 50s to lower 60s later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A cold front will drop southeast through the area today. Winds will shift to the northwest 10 to 15 knots behind the front, with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Uncertainty was too high to mention in any most individual TAFs at this time, though did go with a PROB30 for KXWA this afternoon with showers upstream of this terminal now. Any shower or storm that does develop may produce locally gusty and erratic winds. Winds turn north to northeast later today then become light this evening. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly west and south tonight, but again, probabilities too low for even a PROB30. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...NH ####018004732#### FXUS61 KAKQ 171735 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18z aviation update - Updated Discussion and Key Messages - Rain chances have been increased slightly for this evening. - A Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook has been added for central and eastern VA counties, with the exception of southside Hampton Roads. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of northeast NC. Heat indices in the 105-109 range far south, in the low 100s for much of the rest of area. 2) Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. 3) After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1..Hot and humid today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of northeast NC. Hot, humid conditions peak today ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs today still look to reach into the low to mid 90s. In tandem with dew points in the mid-upper 70s, heat indices of 105+ are forecast for NE NC, and in the low 100s over much of central and eastern VA. A Heat Advisory has been maintained for most of our NE NC counties, with the exception of Northampton NC and coastal Currituck County. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. 00z CAMs have maintained scattered showers and storms late in the day into this evening, coincident with the approach of the latest MCS/MCV from the Ohio Valley, and as the lingering frontal boundary crosses into the area late tonight. MLCAPE increases to 1500-2000 J/kg, and though deep layer shear weakens a bit, the added DPVA from the approaching MCV should help to initiate storms, albeit again likely late in the day or even once again in the evening into the late night hours. A Day 1 Marginal ERO has been added by WPC, and a Marginal Severe Weather Outlook from SPC remains in effect for the I-95 corridor west. Localized severe wind and hail will be possible in the strongest storms, again mainly for western/SW portions of the local area. KEY MESSAGE 3...After a brief lull in rain chances, showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive for Tuesday through midweek. A stronger cold front looks to slowly approach the area late in the work week. The front will likely become hung up over the local area, and will become the focus for numerous rounds of showers and storms once again by Thu and Fri. This pattern should also result in cooler temps for the late week period and into the weekend, with a drier airmass eventually (briefly) pushing into the region sometime over the upcoming weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions in place at all terminals this afternoon. Satellite imagery depicts a developing CU field with dry conditions. Isolated to scattered convection is possible this evening into early tonight, but coverage is expected to be markedly lower than yesterday. The chc is only ~30-40% (at most), so will continue mention with PROB30 groups. Remaining VFR outside of any convection with a W-NW wind becoming light and variable tonight. Drier Tuesday with a light N wind. Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR conditions continue into midweek as weak high pressure returns. Potentially turning unsettled by the end of the week. && .MARINE... As of 530 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Marine conditions improve by this afternoon with generally benign conditions expected through the end of the week. Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled. Wind and seas will continue to subside through the morning, with generally light flow/benign conditions taking hold for much of the coming week. SW winds this morning will become W-NW around midday and then light and variable late this afternoon into tonight. N-NW winds expected Tuesday into midday Wednesday, then E-SE Wednesday afternoon. Waves/seas 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017- 030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...JDM ####018003973#### FXUS61 KBUF 171736 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this evening with areas of fog overnight. 2) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast for the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated showers and thunderstorms through early this evening. Cold front slowly pushing across central New York this afternoon. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two expected through this early evening with enough low-level convergence and moist ascent along the cold front. The better coverage of activity will be east of the Genesee valley with a drying trend across far western New York as a surface ridge builds in behind the cold front. Clearing and light winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to areas of fog overnight tonight, especially in the river valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Patchy radiation fog should also form during the same time period, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall. Key Message 2...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast for the midweek period. High pressure will drift east by Tuesday night, allowing a warm front to push into western New York. Cyclonic flow aloft becomes established over our area and with a few embedded shortwave disturbances moving through the region as a cold front makes it way across the region Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday as weak to perhaps moderate instability develops within the warm sector ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT-BKN low-level clouds remain across much of western NY with MVFR conditions continuing at most terminals early this afternoon. Additionally, scattered showers continue across north-central NY near KART. Expecting conditions to gradually improve through the afternoon and early evening with decreasing cloud cover and mostly northerly light winds. With light low-level winds and minimal upper level cloud cover, efficient radiational cooling will allow for fog development in spots, especially those receiving rainfall earlier in the day. KJHW, and terminals in the Southern Tier, are most likely to see fog development with IFR conditions, but HREF and GLAMP guidance all show non-zero probabilities for western and north- central NY terminals between 8-12z. Fog will linger into early Tuesday morning before clearing up. Outlook... Tuesday Afternoon...Dry weather and mainly VFR. Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected. Wednesday Night through Friday...Dry weather and mainly VFR, although localized fog in/near river/lake valleys is possible around daybreak on Thursday and Friday. Saturday...Scattered showers possible with MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... West-northwest winds at 15 knots or less behind the passage of a cold front will continue into this evening before becoming light overnight. High pressure building over the eastern Great lakes Tuesday will allow for mainly onshore breezes to develop. Southwest winds should freshen ahead of a cold front Wednesday, with mainly west-northwest winds developing behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...Brothers MARINE...TMA ####018003317#### FXUS63 KAPX 171736 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather to start the week with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s today. - Shower/storm chances return on Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected. - Slightly cooler temperatures in store through the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A mid/upper-level jet max will continue to punch across far southeast Canada today with zonal flow over the region to start the work week. High pressure will temporarily nose into the Great Lakes today, eventually getting shunted to our south as seasonably-strong troughing digs across the region Tuesday through the middle of the week. Favorable divergence aloft will support the surface cyclone set to trek across Hudson Bay Tuesday and Wednesday with the attendant surface cold front expected to swing across northern Michigan in the late Tuesday/early Wednesday timeframe. Surface high pressure looks to build back into the region behind this during the second half of the week before additional troughing digs in heading into next weekend. Forecast Details: Increasingly dry air will filter into the region with northwest winds behind the frontal passage today, making for mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Rain chances return to the forecast early Tuesday morning for parts of the Northwoods as the aforementioned front approaches from the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, evolution of shower/storm chances Tuesday may bear similarities to yesterday -- current confidence is that this will not be a widespread rainfall event, with periods of scattered showers and perhaps a few storms Tuesday morning and again later Tuesday afternoon/evening as the front moves through. Thus, some areas may see little/no appreciable rainfall. Meager instability and effective deep-layer shear will certainly limit thunderstorm potential and keep severe storm potential very low. Rain chances look to diminish Tuesday night, leaving dry weather in place on Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Northwest flow will advect cooler, drier air into the Great Lakes through the middle of the week and keep afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s for most areas. This could open the door for overnight lows to dip into the 40s for some areas Wednesday night/Thursday night should winds/cloud cover allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight. Looking ahead, rain chances move back in later Friday/Saturday as troughing works back into the Great Lakes for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Current Cu field and northwest flow will subside this evening followed by patchy BR development near KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL. Mainly VFR is expected this Tuesday, but -SHRA and -TSRA and subsequent MVFR will likely be observed after 18Z. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...SJC ####018004512#### FXUS65 KBOU 171736 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1136 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for today and Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. - More active weather day shaping up for Wednesday with scattered severe thunderstorm threat. - Warmer again through the coming weekend with above normal temperatures. Drier Thursday and Friday, but some monsoonal moisture likely returns by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 155 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Flow aloft has turned more zonal, bringing drier air into the area. This, combined with lower dewpoints at the surface, will decrease our precipitable water values to near normal for this afternoon. High res models are showing a dryline forming this afternoon somewhere near or to the east of the I-25 corridor. Dewpoints will be in the 30s on the west side and 50s to low 60s on the east side. Coverage of showers and storms looks much lower for today, but if an isolated shower or storm can get going this afternoon, the location of the dryline will play a role in the potential hazards associated with that activity. To the west of the dryline, we'll be more worried about virga leading to gusty winds. To the east of the dryline, better instability and shear could allow for an isolated strong to severe storm to develop. The main threats will be strong winds and hail, but we could also see some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding where the dewpoints and moisture is the highest. A weak cold front is forecast to move through the plains Tuesday morning and afternoon. The cold front will help to limit warming at the surface for a good portion of our area, even with the expanding thermal ridge. The temperatures will warm the most in our southern counties (especially southern Lincoln) due to the delayed impact of the front. Moisture will be higher behind the front and winds will be breezy from the east/northeast. This could lead to some decent upslope in the mid to late afternoon. Shear will be strong (~40kts at 0-6km) behind the front, but our potential limiting factor when it comes to severe weather will be the lower instability values. MLCAPEs are forecast to generally be below 500 J/kg, with the exception of our far eastern plains counties, where there some potential for an isolated severe storm. A few models are keeping isolated convective activity going into the late evening and potentially even the overnight hours, as residual boundaries lead to surface convergence. So, this is something we'll have to keep an eye on. On Wednesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler and there's potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low level moisture will remain elevated behind the front and easterly surface winds will provide another day of upslope flow. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will move through providing additional lift. Shear will remain high and instability looks to increase slightly, so we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the plains. Upper level ridging will build over the area Thursday into the weekend. Temperatures will go back above normal, into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains. Rain chances will decrease for Thursday and Friday, with a low chance (<30%) for some isolated activity in the afternoons. PWs do start to increase for the weekend, with a little disturbance or two aloft, increasing our rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected today. While there is some instability out there today, ACARS soundings are rather capped and most guidance struggles to develop much more than some scattered mid- level clouds this afternoon. Winds should remain weak and out of the east through most of the afternoon before transitioning back to drainage around 03-05z, which will prevail through the overnight hours. Winds will weaken and start to turn clockwise during the morning hours Tuesday. A wind shift/cold front is expected to arrive near or just after 18z Tuesday with slightly stronger northeast flow following it. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...Hiris ####018007539#### FXUS65 KPSR 171737 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1037 AM MST Mon Aug 17 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES.... - Temperatures will heat up several degrees above normal through at least the middle part of the week, with lower desert highs climb above 110 degrees most days. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect today through Friday with widespread Major HeatRisk. - Thunderstorm activity will be mostly confined to the Arizona high terrain over the next few days, but chances of affecting the lower deserts should increase by Wednesday or Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Despite the subtropical ridge becoming the more dominant weather feature across the Southwestern U.S., we are also contending with a weakening easterly wave currently centered over far western Texas. This disturbance will eventually lose out to the ridge as it is forecast to shift southwestward over the next couple of days, but it is at least expected to clip southeast Arizona later today. As a result, some weak forcing across east-central and southeast Arizona in combination with some modest moisture advection should bring better coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Hi-res CAMs mostly agree the bulk of this convection will move southeast of our CWA, but a few storms may impact southern Gila County. As the disturbance exits to the south southwest into Tuesday, convective potential is likely to shift more to the Mogollon Rim but with little expected impact for our area. Tuesday will also mark the start of low level moisture advection into southeast California and southwest Arizona from the south with even better and more widespread moisture advection occurring on Wednesday. Temperatures have noticeably warmed up over the past couple of days with Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro all reaching 110 degrees on Sunday. The subtropical ridge moving into the region has pushed H5 heights to between 594-596dm or well into the 90th percentile of climatology. Ensemble mean H5 heights are shown to stay fairly stable the rest of the week, but with the center of the ridge reforming over the northern half of Arizona by Wednesday. Given the little change in heights aloft and little if any influence on temperatures from convection through at least Tuesday, we have high confidence in forecast highs rising to 109-113 degrees across the lower deserts. The Extreme Heat Warnings across the bulk of the area go in effect later this morning with the coverage of Major HeatRisk expanding into mid-week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast uncertainty has actually increased for the latter half of the week as guidance is now favoring slightly better moisture than previously shown while also repositioning the expected subtropical ridge center closer to the Four Corners area by Thursday. The forecast strength of the ridge has increased too, but if the ridge center is more removed from southern and central Arizona it will increase the convective potential. Although there is a good amount of ensemble spread for Wednesday and Thursday, the amount of members indicating QPF spreading into the lower deserts has more than doubled. Forecast mean PWATs are now shown to reach 1.3-1.5" Wednesday and 1.4-1.6" Thursday, or right around normal for the latter half of August. If the ridge does in fact end up moving far enough to the north, it should help to decrease the CIN over the area by Thursday. As of now, Wednesday should still involve mostly high terrain convection, but we can't rule out decent outflows pushing into the south-central Arizona lower deserts. Despite the uncertainty, storm chances for Thursday have definitely increased enough to go higher than NBM guidance. There are also indications of shear increasing by Thursday which could result in some stronger storms. However, we can't put a lot of stock in this so far as models have a poor track record with more mesoscale features as of late. Beyond Thursday, guidance mostly keeps with the near normal moisture levels across the area which means day-to-day somewhat low-end monsoon chances are likely to persist into at least next weekend. The temperature forecast for the latter half of the week is also more uncertain, at least for eastern and central Arizona where higher chances for convection may eventually affect temperatures. NBM/WPC forecast temperatures have only slightly started to account for the potential increase in convection with lower desert highs roughly a degree or two cooler for Wednesday-Friday, but still easily high enough to keep the Extreme Heat Warning in place. However, it definitely is plausible the warning could end up being cancelled early across portions of Arizona if convection increases enough later this week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns expected under few mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts. Thunderstorms over the higher terrain areas well east of Phoenix will likely send an outflow into the Phoenix area late this evening, most likely moving in after 03-04Z. The outflow will mostly serve as an easterly wind shift. No significant gusts are anticipated and no slantwise visibility reductions from dust expected with the outflow passage at this time. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under some passing mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, very light westerly/variable winds this morning will shift out of the southeast early this afternoon before shifting back out of the west early this evening. At KBLH, winds will fluctuate out of the south to southwest. Overall wind speeds will remain aob 10 kts, although some modest afternoon/early evening gusts will be possible. A period of light variability will be common during the early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Above normal temperatures with fairly stable moisture levels are expected early this week. Most lower desert communities will reach or eclipse the 110 degree mark over the next several days. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the high terrain through Tuesday with an increase in monsoon activity possible by Wednesday or Thursday. Afternoon MinRHs of 15-25% are expected through Tuesday before increasing to 20-30% starting Wednesday. Outside of thunderstorm winds, overall winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>544-546- 548>551-553>555-559. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Lojero/Benedict FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman ####018006780#### FXUS61 KBTV 171737 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 137 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... 1. Rounds of scattered showers today, with a few thunderstorms possible especially mid afternoon through early evening. 2. Another weak frontal system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday, with mostly dry and seasonable weather otherwise midweek. 3. A quiet second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain overnight/early this morning has proven to be on the light side of possible outcomes, with most of the heavier showers staying in southern Quebec closer to where a subtle trough has been draped. As a result, much of Vermont and northern New York has seen little or no rain with only spotty showers moving across northern areas. The situation will change during the day as the weak frontal system gradually approaches and passes through our region. The primary surface trough/wind shift line will be oriented from northeast to southwest, and showers will tend to organize along it. Poor upper level forcing and abundant dry air aloft nosing in from the west, evident in water vapor satellite imagery, will minimize the potential for showers and thunderstorms in most of northern New York. Farther east, diurnal heating ahead of the boundary will occur with breaks in cloud cover allowing temperatures to rise into the 75 to 80 range with dew points in the middle 60s. This heat will overlap sufficiently deep moisture and instability to support a low risk of a thunderstorm in a swath from eastern Essex County New York northeastward across much of northeastern Vermont and points south. The CAPE and shear balance for thunderstorms with a minimal severe threat remains evident in the HRRR/RAP/RRFS guidance, particularly in southern Champlain Valley in the 4 to 6 PM window when mean mixed layer CAPE reaches the 500-800 J/kg range with effective shear of about 25 knots (0-6 km shear only about 30 knots). Compared to convective guidance 24 hours ago, surface based instability has only ticked up very slightly, and model output statistics driving the NBM are less bullish than the dynamical models for the thunderstorm probabilities today, suggesting most showers will not produce thunder. Given the relatively small footprint of heavier showers, rainfall amounts should be highly variable with localized footprints of upwards of 1" while many areas miss out on substantial rain (0.25") through this event. KEY MESSAGE 2: Aside from a low chance of a few terrain driven showers on Tuesday, the next chance of rain continues to be on Wednesday. Broad consensus remains that a weak cold front will pass through the Northeast during the day and washout somewhere in our vicinity. This scenario leads to much higher chances of showers and thunderstorms in northern New York than Vermont, especially eastern Vermont. The probabilities of thunderstorms remain low with most guidance rather limited in instability consistent poor lapse rates amidst a thick overcast along the frontal zone. Have maintained slight chances of thunder in the St. Lawrence Valley for the afternoon hours per model consensus and no mention of thunder elsewhere. Overall, this event remains unlikely to be impactful. Note timing/location of the front and associated cloud cover will affect forecast temperatures, which currently may be a few degrees too high (upper 70s to low 80s) in western Vermont and points west if clouds overspread our region on the earlier side. Shower chances could linger into Thursday, although chances are much lower than on Wednesday, per ensemble guidance; some deterministic guidance suggests at least some hit or miss showers will develop in cyclonic flow. KEY MESSAGE 3: Broad cyclonic flow slowly migrates eastward during the second half of the week, bringing near normal temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday. Sunday's forecast hasn't fully come into focus at this time, but we have potential for a system to bring in widespread shower activity throughout the day. A consensus forecast will likely emerge over the next few days and we'll be able to hone in on the specifics. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...MVFR conditions currently prevail this afternoon with ceilings generally between 1500-3000 ft AGL and a few showers moving through the region as a cold front slowly moves eastward. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist over the next few hours, before gradually scattering out as high pressure builds overhead with a brief period of VFR possible towards 00Z. With plenty of low level moisture, fog development looks very favorable tonight. The greatest confidence for IFR or lower conditions will be at KSLK, KMPV, and KRUT, but fog/mist may be possible at most other terminals. Guidance suggests that fog could develop earlier than normal, near 04Z or so, and will dissipates after sunrise towards 12Z. Once fog clears, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Southerly winds this afternoon will trend light/calm overnight before light northerly flow develops tomorrow morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for this morning for Lake Champlain as steady south/southeast winds persist. Observed winds overnight have been 20-30kt with gusts as high as 35 knots over the broad lake and northern waters. Observed significant wave heights have averaged in excess of 2 feet in the vicinity of Valcour Island, suggesting wave heights of 3-5 ft have been occurring nearer to Colchester Point. Winds and waves will begin to slacken after sunrise, although they will linger in the 15 to 20 knot range throughout the morning prior to a cold front moving through and winds turn northerly. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Kutikoff AVIATION...Kremer MARINE...Kutikoff ####018004937#### FXUS63 KOAX 171737 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Monday evening/night with hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and a few isolated tornadoes possible. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, a few isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding will be possible with any storms that develop. - Cooler temperatures return to the forecast Wednesday, with a gradual warming trend expected heading into the weekend. Periodic chances for showers/storms are expected Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The forecast period begins with a mid-level ridge over the Rockies and northwest flow over the Great Plains. Clouds have cleared out over most of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa this evening. With calm to fairly light winds and cooling temperatures, fog development will be possible, particularly for areas along the Missouri River and the Iowa/Missouri border. A few models have been trying to bring some fog as far west as Lancaster and Gage counties for a few hours Monday morning. A few areas may have visibility reductions to 1 mile or less for a few hours around sunrise. A few isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern South Dakota overnight, dropping into eastern Nebraska by sunrise Monday morning. A few areas may wake up to some showers or weak storms moving through. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to upper 80s across the region. A shortwave trough will move into the region Monday afternoon, bringing some chances for showers and storms. Moving into a decent environment, this first potential wave of storms will have the potential of becoming strong to severe. The main hazards with any storms that are able to strengthen would be large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding, particularly for areas that have already had decent rainfall over the past few days. An isolated tornado risk cannot be entirely ruled out. A second wave of thunderstorm activity will be possible after midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the earlier convection and a more stable environment, the possibility for severe weather will go down some with this later wave of storms. Surface low pressure develops over the Central High Plains on Tuesday and a slow moving cold front arrives in northern Nebraska and Iowa. Expect some slightly cooler temperatures near the NE/SD border, ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s for highs. Areas further south will top out in the low to mid-80s. Moisture will be moving into the region and destabilization is expected over southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa during the afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the entire Omaha CWA, with large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes all possible. Precipitable water values of 1.5- 2.0" are expected as well. Heavy rainfall with any storms may result in some localized flash flooding. Several areas across the region have already received quite a bit of rainfall over the past few days and may therefore be more prone to flooding with any additional heavy rainfall. An amplifying ridge over the western CONUS will send a series of weak shortwaves through the Great Plains Wednesday through Friday. This will bring periodic chances (30-60% Wednesday; 20-30% Thursday and Friday) for showers and storms to the region. Wednesday high temperatures will be fairly nice for August standards, reaching the mid-70s to low 80s. Typical highs for eastern Nebraska/western Iowa are in the mid-80s. Expect a gradual warming through Friday with highs returning to the low to mid-80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions are set through the next 12 hours, with southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies holding. A few gusts have neared 20 kts near KOFK, while KLNK and KOMA stay around or just under 10 kts. Clouds increase late this evening into the overnight, where a few clusters of storms will develop and move through the area into much of the morning. As of now, the earlier initial round should only affect KOFK, while the later ones affect KOMA and KLNK. The current TAFs reflect the timing for the primary storm chances for each location, with potential that activity could extend by an hour or two on either side. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...Petersen ####018004956#### FXUS64 KEWX 171738 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Hot and rain free conditions persist. The humidity and heat risk to uptick slightly for the second half of the week into weekend. Practice heat safety. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Hot and sunny conditions prevail today with the likely lowest dew points of the week during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The highs will again climb into the 100 to 103 degree range for most except for the cooler favored areas across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. The peak heat indices with the drier air maintain near or slightly above the ambient temperature. The dew points will recover overnight, as it does most nights, but are not forecast to mix down as well on Tuesday afternoon as compared to this afternoon. The dew points are actually forecast to mix out better for Wednesday afternoon than Tuesday afternoon for most. It is difficult to discern the main difference but when looking at the 850-700 mb layer, Tuesday afternoon does seems to favor a more southeasterly oriented flow across that layer while today is more easterly across that layer and Wednesday afternoon then turns more southerly to south-southwesterly within that layer. Overall as a result, while the ambient temperatures look to remain of within a degree or so of the highs today, Tuesday afternoon will likely see the highest heat indices out of the next three days. The coastal plains could see some locations in the 106 to 109 degree range. Outside from some scattered low clouds and perhaps a little bit of patchy fog in the coastal plains tonight into Tuesday morning, a mostly to completely clear sky prevails. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The weather regime remains similar for the second half of the week through the weekend. The region remains under the influence of the sub-tropical ridge, which will begin to amplify across the Four Corners region before gradually sliding back southeastward towards Texas this weekend. Surface high pressure also maintains over the Gulf and yields a persistent light to modest south-southeasterly flow across the region. Hot daytime high temperatures, most in the 100 to 103 degree range outside of the cooler terrain influenced regions, will continue with little day to day fluctuation. However, with the subtle day to day increase in the low-level moisture and humidity beyond Wednesday, expect for the peak heat indices and overall heat risk to slowly rise. We'll closely analyze values towards the short term, as the NBM has been a little too high with dew points beyond the day 4 period regarding mixing through the afternoon periods, but enough of the region may see the heat risk climb with combination of the temperature/heat indices for the possible need of heat advisories at some point. Conditions look to remain rain free otherwise with development of morning low clouds eroding to mostly sunny skies each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all forecast terminals. Southerly winds today will eventually turn light and variable overnight before picking back up from the south generally around or under 10 knots. There is the potential for MVFR CIGS overnight at KSAT and KSSF however confidence is quite low as most model ensembles keep VFR CIGS. Decided to keep mention out of this forecast package for now but future packages may need to add this in based on newer model guidance. We will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...CJM ####018005730#### FXUS65 KRIW 171739 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY Issued by National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1139 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and storms increase today, and peak on Tuesday. The best chance for showers and storms will be across northern Wyoming. - Drier air returns starting Wednesday and lasts through Friday, with only isolated convection, mainly in and near the mountains. - Above normal temperatures return by Wednesday and last through at least Saturday, with widespread highs in the 90s East of the Divide Thursday, Friday and possibly through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The monsoon continues today and, like last night, the models did another horrible job with the night time convection. There are less than last night though with the air mass being drier. But, what I wouldn't give for a nice, strong cold front to push through and vanquish the monsoon until next summer. But, we have to play the hand we are dealt so here we go. Moisture will increase across the area today, but not dramatically. Precipitable water values today look to generally run anywhere from 100 to 140 percent of normal, not excessively high. The result will be a somewhat greater coverage of showers and storms that yesterday. Most guidance is also fairly consistent in keeping the most numerous storms across the northern half of the area, with mainly dry conditions persisting in southern Wyoming. Not saying there won't be any there, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. The best chance looks to be across the northern border where the chance is around 1 out of 3. As for hazards, dew point depressions are over 40 degrees so there could be some strong wind gusts. There could also be some locally heavy rain but there is steering flow today and that should help mitigate the flooding threat; it is not zero but it is low. With somewhat higher thicknesses, temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, fairly close to what is normal for mid August. Some convection lingers into as well, but placement is uncertain given the poor model performance with the monsoon. Tuesday looks like the most active day for this round of the monsoon. The highest precipitable water values are not the highest, again topping out around 140 percent of normal. However, it is the most widespread. As a result, just about all locations will have at least a 1 in 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Just about everything else looks similar to today, the main threat would be strong wind gusts, with a lesser chance of minor flooding with decent steering flow mitigating that threat somewhat. A few showers may linger into Tuesday night as well, but probably fewer than on Monday night. Temperatures should also run fairly similar to Tuesday. Drier air will then overspread most of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitable water values fall back to below normal levels for most of the area on Wednesday and even into Thursday as the moisture gets suppressed to the south. The chance of convection on these days is very small, less than 1 out 10 for all locations. There is a slightly better chance of a shower or storm on Thursday, but it would likely be restricted to the mountains. With the associated ridge building northward, temperatures will be on the rise as well. The forecasted temperatures may be a few degrees too cool as well. Most of the lower elevations East of the Divide will probably see high temperatures into the 90s possibly as early as Wednesday and almost definitely from Thursday through at least Saturday. Some of the warmer spots could be in the upper 90s Friday or Saturday. The chance of showers and storms also begins to rise on Friday as monsoonal moisture moves back into the area. Most activity would be confined to in and near the mountains on Friday though. Saturday may be a day that needs to be watched. Some guidance shows precipitable water values climbing to over 150 percent of normal, possibly approaching 200 percent of normal. There is steering flow, so this should mitigate the flooding threat somewhat. I would not be surprised to some sort of Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this day though. Above normal moisture also looks to persist into Sunday and early next week, keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (15 to 40 percent) at most terminals this afternoon, from about 19z until 03z. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph are possible near any shower or storm, and brief MVFR conditions are possible if a storm passes directly over. Increasing moisture overnight may keep low shower chances over the area, namely across western and northern Wyoming, so have included some PROB30 groups to cover the chances for now, as confidence is fairly low. Otherwise, winds follow typical diurnal trends, with decreasing speeds this evening, and increasing clouds overnight associated with the incoming moisture. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann ####018005386#### FXUS62 KMFL 171739 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 139 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Near record temperatures expected today and Tuesday. - Unseasonably low RH values are expected over interior South FL today and Tuesday which may result in an elevated fire risk. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Surface high pressure will remain in control early this week, with upper level ridging across the region. Latest models show Saharan dust will linger across South FL, which will also help aid in the suppression of convection today and Tuesday. Outside of a few mid to late day showers and storms along the sea breeze in SE FL, most of the area will remain dry again today. High temps will near record territory today, with middle 90s across the metro, to upper 90s over the interior. Combine those temps with dewpoints in the 70s, and max heat indices will again be in the 105-110 range this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening. Mostly clear and mild overnight, with low temps ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 closer to the coasts. On Tuesday a frontal boundary will slide from the TN valley to near the SE US coast. This will push some moisture further south down the peninsula by later in the day. Forecast soundings show PWAT values increasing to around 1.9 inches around the lake region, while remaining 1.6-1.7 inches over the far southern peninsula. With Saharan dust continuing to linger, expect another mostly dry day, however some scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the early evening around the lake region. With winds likely to remain westerly across the east coast metro throughout much of the afternoon, temps will likely be several degrees higher on Tuesday, with mid to upper 90s in the metro. Record high temps will again be in jeopardy. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110, so additional heat headlines will likely be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Upper level ridging starts to break down across the region mid to late week as a trough starts to dig into the eastern US, and remains there through next weekend. Meanwhile, the higher Saharan dust concentrations will get shunted to our south. Low level moisture increases across the area with near normal PoPs (40-60%) returning to the forecast during the extended period. Convection will be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each day favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, with isolated coastal showers and storms overnight. Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with max heat indices each day continuing to flirt with advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR expected for the period. SE winds today decrease to around 5 kts overnight while becoming more variable in direction. At KAPF, winds will be out of a westerly direction. For tomorrow, similar winds will occur for each respective site. && .MARINE... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic waters today, with west to northwesterly winds across the Gulf waters. Mostly flat seas around a foot or less. A brief period of cautionary winds are possible over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Hot and dry conditions will continue early this week across South FL. Min RH values over the Everglades will fall to around 40 percent today and some locations may fall into the upper 30 percent range on Tuesday. Despite light westerly winds, the seasonably low RH values combined with ongoing drought conditions may result in an elevated fire risk today and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Record high temperatures are possible early this week. Here are the current records for Monday and Tuesday: MON(YEAR) TUE(YEAR) MIA 96 (2022) 96 (2022) FLL 98 (1924) 98 (1921) DJT 97 (1938) 96 (2022) APF 97 (2001) 97 (2001) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 98 80 96 / 0 10 0 50 West Kendall 76 98 78 96 / 0 10 0 50 Opa-Locka 80 99 80 97 / 0 10 0 50 Homestead 77 97 77 96 / 0 10 0 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 97 80 95 / 0 10 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 98 81 96 / 0 10 10 50 Pembroke Pines 80 98 80 96 / 0 10 10 50 West Palm Beach 79 97 79 95 / 0 10 10 60 Boca Raton 79 95 79 94 / 0 10 10 50 Naples 78 91 80 92 / 0 0 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...Redman ####018005986#### FXUS62 KTAE 171740 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 140 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Long-duration hazardous heat wave continues for much of this week. Heat products will keep being issued accordingly. Very warm nighttime temperatures offer little relief. Please exercise heat safety: www.weather.gov/safety/heat. - Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Strong- gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain are the main threats. - Somewhat of a break in the heat wave appears to occur late this week, which likely opens the door for convectively active weather. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 We're still firmly locked into this unrelenting heat wave for much of this week. The main highlight for today is the Extreme Heat Warning for parts of the FL Panhandle and Central FL Big Bend where heat indices near or above 113 degrees are expected. A Heat Advisory is in place everywhere else for heat indices between 108 & 112 degrees. These hazards go into effect from 11AM EDT/10AM CDT to 8PM EDT/7PM CDT. Actual high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s (isolated 100 is possible). Upper 70s to around 80 degrees for overnight lows are hardly an improvement. The only relief has to come from thunderstorms, for which coverage looks scattered at best, primarily focusing across the afternoon seabreeze around the I-10 corridor. Convection will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Expect additional heat products to be issued through before this weekend consisting of a likely mix between Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for widespread dangerously high heat indices in the 110s. High temperatures well above 90 degrees and lows no lower than mid 70s will continue to be common with readings around 100 degrees on Thursday. The latter appears to be accompanied by relatively lower dew points from drier NW flow which may confine hazardous heat mainly our FL counties. By Friday, SW flow becomes re-established, which would allow dew points to rebound in SE AL & SW GA, and raise heat indices closer to advisory levels once again for perhaps the final time of this prolonged stretch. Overall, the large-scale pattern shifts in the second half of the long-term period as the heat wave ridge retrogrades westward in response to a digging northern stream upper trough across the Eastern US. This feature sends a frontal boundary our way this weekend and serve as a catch-22 by offering some heat relief, but also likely enhancing convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will develop this afternoon into early evening. Highest probs for TSRA will be TLH and VLD with lower probs elsewhere. VFR outside of convection and tempo MVFR in and near convection. Winds will generally be from the southwest, gusty near storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Persistent high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions the next several days outside of thunderstorms and potentially fair- weather morning waterspouts. Prevailing gentle to moderate west winds are forecast with daily afternoon seabreezes across the immediate nearshore legs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The main fire concerns continue to be hazardous heat conditions persisting through at least mid week, daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms, and high dispersions in SE AL and parts of SW GA both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures well into the 90s will be common with heat indices of 108 to 115+ degrees. Thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, and locally wetting rains are additional threats. Prevailing west to NW winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. All area rivers are currently running well below action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 78 98 78 / 50 10 60 10 Panama City 93 82 94 82 / 20 10 40 10 Dothan 98 77 97 75 / 30 10 20 10 Albany 99 77 98 75 / 20 10 10 10 Valdosta 97 77 98 76 / 30 10 40 10 Cross City 95 78 94 78 / 30 10 50 20 Apalachicola 93 81 93 82 / 20 10 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>011-018-019-028-029-034-128-134. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>017-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3