####018007133#### FXUS62 KRAH 091922 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 222 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will migrate across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low pressure system that will swing across the Great Lakes later tonight and Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low will move across NC Wednesday night. Another area of high pressure will follow and build across the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... * Sub-freezing temperatures will allow any snow or moisture on area roads and sidewalks to freeze, producing hazardous travel through mid to late morning. * Cold today with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal In the wake of exiting shortwave trough, a migratory Arctic high pressure will weaken while building over the area today before shifting offshore tonight. Light snow/flurries have ended across the area, leaving behind widespread low clouds early this morning. However, dry low-level air advection from the north, combined with increasing subsidence aloft, should lead to NE to SW clearing/partial clearing through mid to late morning. Across the area that received 1-2 inches of snow across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, morning lows in the lower to mid 20s will support slick spots and patchy black ice, especially on shaded secondary roads, bridges and overpasses. Temperatures rising above freezing by late morning, combined with increasing solar radiation, will reduce the risk of slippery conditions. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold for early December, with highs ranging from mid/upper 30s north to lower 40s south --about 15 to 20 degrees below normal. After the low stratus scatters out, expect periods of broken/overcast cirrus and cirrostratus, some of which may become orographically-enhanced, through tonight. Lows tonight will fall into the 20s area-wide. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 221 PM Tuesday... A potent mid-level short wave will dive southeast through the Ohio Valley early Wednesday before pushing across the Southeast US Wednesday evening. While mid-level height falls will accompany this feature, mid to upper flow should be relatively wly, and as such, most moisture associated with the feature should ring out on the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. At the sfc, pre-frontal swly flow will pick up early to mid Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal (highs in the lower to mid 50s. Forecast soundings from various models continue to depict the potential for strong momentum transfer if we can mix deep enough. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph may be possible late Wednesday morning through sunset. Otherwise, a dry cold front will pass through central NC Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer though as winds stay stirred behind the front and we only radiate down into the upper 20s/lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 PM Tuesday... * Temperature roller coaster, below normal Thursday and Friday, moderating to near/above normal Friday night through Sunday, then falling back to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. * Highest chance (slight) for precipitation will be Saturday night into Sunday. Aloft, a s/w traversing the base of the longwave trough will move across the region on Thu, while the parent low tracks ewd across the Northeast US/srn Quebec. In the wake of the s/w, the flow will become gradually more zonal Thu night through Sat. A weak s/w disturbance may track across the mid-Atlantic late Fri/Fri night. The longwave trough will again amplify over the central CONUS Sat/Sat night as a low tracks esewd across Ontario and a nrn stream s/w tracks esewd from the nrn Rockies to the mid MS/OH Valley. As the low continues its ewd progression toward the Northeast US, the s/w will continue ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic on Sun, then offshore Sun night. The longwave trough will linger over the ern US on Mon, with another nrn stream s/w swinging through it and across the region Mon night/Tue. At the surface, high pressure will modify as it builds ewd across the region in the wake of the front Thu and Fri. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop off the central Rockies and move ewd across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley Thu and Fri. As the low moves east across the region, a warm front may lift across the area. A trailing, secondary low may track ewd or newd across the region along the front late Sat/Sat night, though the track and strength varies between the available guidance. Regardless, as the low moves out, the attendant cold front will quickly move across the area, with Arctic high pressure building in behind it. The center of the high will track east from the mid/upper MS Valley and across the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sun night-Tue. Precipitation: There is a non-zero chance of rain perhaps clipping central NC counties along the VA border, but for now will keep the forecast dry. The better chance for rain will be Sat night/Sun, however chances are slight given the model variability, with a chance the rain could split central NC entirely (GFS). Temperatures: Highs mainly in the 40s on Thu, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Some moderation could start Fri, with the potential for highs to reach low/mid 50s across the south. Sat and Sun will be the warmest days, with temps near to above normal. Temperatures will drop in the wake of the cold front, with a return to below normal for Sun night through Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM Tuesday... Lingering MVFR ceilings over the wrn Piedmont this afternoon may scatter, at least temporarily, to VFR late this afternoon and evening. However, the associated moisture will likely remain trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion based in MVFR range and favor a redevelopment or filling in of associated stratocumulus ceilings Wed morning, in a zone of frontal lift parallel to the Appalachians and across the Foothills and wrn Piedmont. That lift may be augmented by an intense low-level jet that will overspread the region Wed morning and favor the development of low-level wind shear and/or strong mechanical turbulence. Momentum from that low-level jet will increasingly mix to the surface and manifest as a strong and gusty swly surface wind with heating/mixing Wed afternoon. Outlook: VFR. Another episode of low-level wind shear will be possible Fri night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...MWS ####018007420#### FXUS63 KFGF 091924 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very difficult travel conditions are expected today, with heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and ice. The line between freezing rain and snow is expected to be sharp, with 3 to 6 inches or more snow to the northeast of the line, and up to a tenth of an inch of ice to the south. - Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher. Areas with snow on the ground, or actively falling, will see visibility reductions. The highest winds are expected in southeast North Dakota. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70 percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .UPDATE... Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The southerly low track has prompted additional adjustments as the strongest winds/speed max should remain to the south, and the high wind warning was cancelled except for Barnes, Sargent, Ransom, and Richland counties (better chances for 60 mph are now near the SD border region) in our CWA. Mixed precipitation is also ending farther northeast/quicker while moderate to heavy snow is over the Fargo/Moorhead metro. The heaviest snow on radar shows a more defined back edge with the pivot favoring this transitioning east Cass but more likely to linger in Clay. This places the best chance of 6" just west of the metro, though I can't be ruled out.All winter products remain in effect now through the night to cover CAA/HCR type shower impacts after the main period of snow banding ends. Winds are not as high now due to the low track and the potential for widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions are much lower as a result. Any whiteout conditions would instead will be tied to snow rates and where any lingering showers occur. UPDATE Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The surface track of the low is lining up towards a slightly more southern track and latest short range guidance is showing a consensus towards this solution. This results in several adjustments/trends in the short term evolution of this system as the baroclinic zone is stalling just south of Devils Lake and Fargo. This track (along with the location of current pressure falls) will place higher winds a little farther south lowering the chances for blizzard impacts farther north, though blowing snow and heavy rates will still create periods of white out conditions. This also shortens the window for freezing rain farther north and northeast, while placing the heavier snow band potential about a county to the west in the northern RRV (Langdon to Grand Forks To Detroit Lakes and Hubbard County) where rates of 1"+ are more likely to occur this afternoon. Fargo still remains on the edge of the Baroclinic zone, though these trends do allow for a shorter duration/window of freezing rain impacts in the metro. The big picture remains the same though, with slick travel in areas where an advisory remains in effect and difficult travel in areas where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect (some expansion of the warnings were made in west central MN to align with the axis of potential heavier snow). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Synopsis... A strong clipper system moves into the area today, bringing mixed precipitation, including freezing rain and moderately heavy snow. Travel impacts are expected due to accumulations ranging from 2-7 inches of snow and up to 0.10 inch of ice. Winds increase this afternoon, with some areas in southeast North Dakota seeing the potential for near 60 mph gusts. Further north and east, gust potential will be slightly lower; however, with falling snow, visibility is likely to be reduced, sometimes sharply. Much colder temperatures follow this system heading into Wednesday with highs expected to only reach the teens. Another clipper brings additional cold air and light snow to the area on Thursday and Friday, with the coldest air of the season thus far for most areas. Dangerously cold wind chills are possible each morning Friday through Sunday. ...Winter Storm and High Winds Today... Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate today as a strong clipper impacts the area. A strong thermal gradient, along with favorable moisture advection, will interact along a sharp baroclinic zone stretching from northwest to southeast. H5 low pressure traverses this region today, with warm air and moisture overrunning much colder air. Areas to the south of a line from about Devils Lake to Mayville, to Detroit Lakes could see ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. To the north, most areas should see snow, which could be heavy at times. Looking at snowfall accumulations, the 25th percentile comes in around 2 inches, with 75th percentile totals upwards of 6 inches. Additionally, a band of higher totals is possible, representing the 90th percentile values of roughly 8 inches. For areas in southeast North Dakota, rain and freezing rain will be the primary ptypes through late afternoon, with a change over to snow this evening. Strong cold air advection, however, will bring the risk of rapid freezing on surfaces, which could lead to travel impacts. Winds increase rapidly as the system pushes east, with northwest to north winds increasing this afternoon and evening, producing gusts up to 60 mph in parts of southeast North Dakota. ...Very Cold Temperatures Friday into the Weekend... A reinforcing surge of Arctic air pours into the area Thursday, with sharply colder temperatures expected Friday through Sunday. Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the single digits either side of zero, with highs on Saturday remaining below zero. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 20s below zero Friday night and Saturday night, with wind chills as low as 40 below zero. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Aviation impacts continue as a result of a winter storm moving across eastern ND and northwest MN, with IFR conditions prevailing into the evening and brief VLIFR conditions where heavy snow occurs. Blowing snow and lingering snow showers could keep MVFR conditions lingering into Wednesday morning, though there should be gradual improving trends in visibility as winds decrease and shower coverage diminishes. MVFR ceilings are more likely to linger though after snow ends. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008- 015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006- 014-024-028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ038-049-052-053. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004- 007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005- 006-009-029-030-040. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR