####018014057#### FXUS61 KCLE 241315 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 915 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Ontario will build over the area by tonight and continue to influence the weather through Friday before drifting east off the New England coast. A warm front will lift across the local area Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 915 AM Update... Light showers and/or drizzle chances will persist across NE OH/NW PA through the remainder of the morning, but precip will likely be hit and miss so decreased PoPs across NW PA/NE OH for the next few hours. Otherwise, no changes needed with this update. Still expecting a cloudy, chilly day today. Previous discussion... The surface analysis early this morning shows the cold front is just approaching Lake Erie with an abrupt wind shift to the northwest behind it. The front will cross Lake Erie this morning but cold advection will continue to increase into this afternoon as temperatures at 925mb cool by 7-10C. Northerly winds will be breezy behind the cold front with winds gusting to around 20 mph at times. High temperatures will occur this morning ahead of the front with temperatures settling into the low to mid 40s this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. When you take the wind into effect, wind chills will be in the mid 30s from North Central Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania making for a chilly late April day. Showers continue to spread east across Lake Erie and eastern portions of the forecast area ahead of a shortwave and cold pool aloft. While the deeper moisture and better coverage of showers shifts east through 10 AM, scattered showers remain possible off eastern Lake Erie with lingering low level convergence before the ridge starts to build in this afternoon. Not quite cold enough for pure lake effect rain showers but some enhancement with scattered showers off the lake is expected. Moisture depth really decreases through the afternoon and expect the last of the light showers or sprinkles to be done by this evening. Have slowed down the clearing a little more with some breaks starting to develop downwind of the lake in NW Ohio by mid afternoon, then gradually scattering out through midnight as subsidence associated with the building high pressure wins out. With that said, some patches of cloud could remain tonight and complicate where Freeze Warnings/Frost Advisories may be needed. Decided to let the day shift monitor moisture and clearing trends and make the final call today. The forecast still supports a widespread freeze with much of the area dropping below 30 degrees and potentially a hard freeze with cooler spots into the mid to upper 20s. Winds will also be light which is conducive to widespread frost. Thursday will be mostly sunny, although a shallow cu field may develop inland from Lake Erie. With a continued cool northeast flow off the lake, lakeshore areas will remain near 50 degrees while southern areas should warm into the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be departing to the east Thursday night into Friday, though will still be close enough Thursday night to allow for one more mostly clear night with fairly light winds. There will be a bit more of a gradient than tonight and the airmass will be starting to warm a bit, so not expecting quite as much of a frost / freeze threat. However, with lows mainly ranging from the mid 30s to near 40 (locally near freezing from interior Northeast OH into interior Northwest PA) there should be some frost, though on a somewhat patchier basis than what's expected where skies clear tonight. Frost will favor locations away from the immediate lakeshore where winds are able to decouple. Much of Friday will be dry, though mid and high-level clouds will be on the increase with some potential for showers ahead of a warm front to approach I-75 by the early evening hours. Highs on Friday will respond nicely to the southeasterly flow and 850mb temperatures warming to 8-10C...most of the area should get into the low to mid 70s. Low pressure will develop over the Plains Thursday night into Friday and lift through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This low will lift a warm front across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. As mentioned above, modest shower chances may begin encroaching on I-75 before sunset Friday, though otherwise activity will hold off until Friday night into Saturday morning from west to east. This won't be a big rain maker and with very modest amounts of elevated instability, severe weather isn't a concern either. However, a combination of the lifting warm front, support from the right-entrance quadrant of an upper-level jet streak Friday night into early Saturday, a fairly strong and moist low-level jet ascending into the upper-level jet support, and a flat mid-level shortwave supports most of the area seeing at least some measurable rain Friday night into Saturday morning. Given models are generally consistent on timing, maintain a period of likely to categorical POPs (60-80%) for nearly all of forecast area Friday night or early Saturday, save for the Mount Vernon area where POPs decrease into the chance (~50%) range. Have a slight chance of thunder mentioned as that's generally a good practice with warm fronts in the spring, but the amount of instability to work with will be limited so it should be more "showers" than "thunderstorms". Rain potential will diminish west of I-77 by early Saturday morning and will exit east of there by midday as the warm front and accompanying jet support continue lifting away from the area. This will leave a mainly dry Saturday behind the warm front, with just low chances for a stray shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the afternoon as weak instability tries developing. With some continued warm air/moisture advection continuing off and on through Saturday night keep some very low (20-30%) POPs in the forecast, especially over Northeast OH and Northwest PA...however, the forcing will be weak and instability limited, so still suspect that the general flavor for Saturday and Saturday night will be mainly dry once the warm front and associated showers are able to exit the area. Lows Friday night will range significantly from the mid 40s east of Meadville to the upper 50s to near 60 west of I-77 in Ohio. Fairly deep mixing into strong deep-layer southwest flow, the strong late April sun, and 850mb temperatures climbing to 12-14C will support highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 Saturday...perhaps a bit cooler in Northwest PA if clouds/showers linger longer. Lows Saturday night will be very mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s in PA to the low to mid 60s across much of Ohio. It will be breezy to windy on Saturday, especially from mid-morning through early afternoon as the combination of a weakening (but still 40-45 knot) low-level jet and deepening mixing allows stronger gusts to mix down. Generally think much of the area will see 30-35 MPH gusts, though locations along the eastern lakeshore and generally northwest of I-71 may see a few hours of 40-45 MPH gusts. This is reflected by the NBM depicting modest probabilities (generally 20-40%) of gusts actually exceeding advisory-criteria (46 MPH) in a small chunk of Northwest and North Central OH. Ultimately do not think we'll need a headline anywhere but the wind will be noticeable on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A stout ridge will be in place over the eastern US Sunday and into Monday, with the ridge beginning to shift east and flatten later Monday into Monday night as a trough and associated cold front progress east out of the central US. Expect warm and mainly dry conditions (save for an isolated shower or storm) Sunday through a good portion of Monday. At some point late Monday or Monday night, expect greater rain chances to arrive along or just ahead of the advancing cold front. Models disagree somewhat on the frontal timing, with the GFS and Euro suggesting a passage Monday night into early Tuesday while the Canadian model is more solidly during the day Tuesday. If anything, timing has trended slightly slower in recent runs, which isn't unreasonable given the approaching trough will be flattening out as it approaches with a stout ridge only slowly giving way to the east ahead of the trough and cold front. Regardless, all models have a sufficient combination of moisture, modest instability, and forcing with the cold front and upper-level diffluence ahead of the approaching trough to suggest that much of the area should get wet with the cold frontal passage. Felt model agreement on timing was enough to hit everyone with at least one period of likely (60%) POPs at some point between late Monday and early Tuesday. POPs diminish west to east into Tuesday as high pressure will build in behind the front, though given some disagreement on the front's timing do hold onto at least a bit of a rain mention Tuesday east of a Sandusky to Upper Sandusky line. Temperatures will remain well above normal for Sunday and Monday, quite possibly approaching or reaching the low 80s across parts of the area, before cooling at least somewhat behind the front on Tuesday. Not looking at much of a severe weather or heavy rain threat with this front. Some models have a moderate amount of shear with enough instability late Monday into Monday evening that there could be a few stronger storms if frontal timing isn't too slow from the west, though overall am only seeing the ingredients in place for a rather low-end / run-of-the-mill severe threat, if even that. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... At 11Z, a cold front extends from eastern Lake Erie to Cleveland to Findlay and will continue to move southeast through the rest of the area through 15Z. Showers are still ongoing ahead of the front and will taper off across far NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania through early afternoon. MVFR clouds are filling in across the area and will persist through the afternoon. Patches of IFR are possible behind the front but are not expected to be widespread and will generally only last a couple hours at any point. Clouds will scatter out from north to south between 22-06Z. Southwest to west winds ahead of the front will shift to the northwest and eventually north for most of the day. Winds may occasionally gust to around 20 knots, at TOL/FDY/CLE during the late morning/afternoon on Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday. && .MARINE... Another day, another Small Craft Advisory for most of the nearshore waters between the Islands and Conneaut, OH as north-northwest winds freshen to 15-25 knots behind a cold front this morning. This will build 3 to occasionally 6 foot waves between the Islands and Conneaut. Winds and waves will be a bit weaker and smaller farther west towards Toledo and east of Conneaut, so did not include nearshore waters off of Lucas County OH or Erie County PA in the advisory. The headline runs 8 AM to 8 PM today, with some potential to be canceled a couple hours early if winds and waves can come down quickly enough later this afternoon. High pressure will move over the lake tonight before departing to the east/southeast Thursday into Friday. Tranquil marine conditions are expected tonight and Thursday morning. A period of 10-15 knot east-northeast winds may be just enough to build some chop between the Islands and Willowick, OH Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds will remain east-northeast through Friday afternoon before shifting more south-southeast Friday night and southwest Saturday through Monday. Speeds of around 15 knots will be common Friday into Friday evening, which will build waves across the western and central basins...though the current wind/wave forecast does remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for that period. The strongest winds are expected late Friday night into Saturday, as winds turn south and southwest at 20 to 25 knots. This will build 4 to 7 footers in the open waters, especially across the central basin, and will likely necessitate a period of wind-driven Small Craft Advisories for most or all nearshore zones late Friday night through a good chunk of Saturday. Strong offshore flow and cold waters could catch inexperienced mariners in smaller craft off guard, so don't want to downplay the potential need for advisories even with a purely offshore wind. Winds diminish into a 15-20 knot range for Sunday and Monday, which is still somewhat brisk but will allow marine conditions to improve somewhat. There is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms over the lake from Friday night through Monday afternoon. There is greater potential for thunderstorms over the lake Monday evening and night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ143>148. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/Maines SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Sullivan ####018005467#### FXUS62 KJAX 241318 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 918 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 No significant updates to the forecast. Warming trend continues after a seasonably cool morning. Highs are projected to push toward the lower 80s this afternoon, except at the coast where the sea breeze will work inland this afternoon keeping highs in the mid/upper 70s. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will dominate the pattern today with clear to partly cloudy skies. Some very patchy light ground fog is possible in inland areas through sunrise. A weak sea breeze will develop near shore and will move inland 20 to 40 miles through the evening hours. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s inland and the lower to mid 70s at the coast. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and the lower to mid 60s coastal. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Weak cold front will move into our southeast GA zones Thursday morning and afternoon while tending to become more diffuse. High pressure will build to the north of the front Thu night helping to drag it further southward into Friday. Any progged isolated shower activity with the front is only likely to be over the coastal waters during this time frame. High pressure continues to build in across the east coast Friday while the west-east oriented front is diffuse near the FL/GA state line. Low level flow turns more east to southeast and enough moisture and sfc convergence are available to spark a couple of showers. Upper levels are too stable and suppressed for any t-storm activity. For now, will increase the chances a bit to around 10-20 percent area-wide with support from latest MOS and blended guidance. Temps will be near normal during this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Fairly quiet conditions this period with a mid/upper level ridge over the region. A strong mid/upper level trough across the southwest U.S. lifts to the northeast while an associated front moves to the Ohio and TN valleys by Mon night. It will tend to be breezy from easterly flow Saturday and possibly Sunday during the daytime with a decent pressure gradient in place with center of the high just off the New England coast. The high moves into the region by Sunday night and into early next week. We could see some isolated showers on Saturday but few and far between for most areas with limited mid/upper level moisture, and maybe even less chances on Sunday. A shower or two still possible across the coastal waters. High pressure ridge will be over the area on Monday and most of Tuesday, though the tail end of a weak cold front may move into the area by Tuesday night, but little moisture appears available for much of any precip. Temps will be close to normal values through the weekend with a trend towards above normal temps early next week as the ridge axis slides southward. These high temps will generally be in the mid/upper 80s over far inland areas, with lower 80s along the I-95 corridor and around 80 each day along the Atlantic Coastal areas. More widespread mid to upper 80s anticipated for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions and light winds under the influence of high pressure. An afternoon sea breeze will push an ESE wind into the coastal terminals this afternoon, around 8-11 kts. Potential for localized vsby reduction at KVQQ but otherwise VFR expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure will dominate the waters through tonight with a sea breeze developing near shore during the afternoon and evening hours. A weak trough/front will approach the waters on Thursday with high pressure building back in through the remainder of the forecast period. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Low RH values into mainly the mid 30 percent range expected today and Thursday, though some pockets to near 30 percent are possible inland areas. Sfc winds and transport winds are slightly higher today just to the northeast of Alma GA may lead to high dispersion values. By Friday, high dispersion looks more probable for many areas as sfc and transport winds will be higher. This is headlined in the latest FWF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 59 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 77 62 81 65 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 81 59 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 SGJ 78 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 81 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018005608#### FXUS61 KCAR 241318 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 918 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will cross the area today then continue into the Maritimes this evening as a cold front following the low pushes offshore. High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Saturday. A warm front will approach Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 918AM Update...The rain is lighter with the initial band coming in, so adjusted the QPF forecast to show this. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good. Previous discussion... Low pressure will push east into our area today ahead of a small but vigorous upper trough pushing across Quebec. Rain, supported by lift out ahead of the upper trough and surface convergence with the surface low, will push into western areas early this morning then reach the east by late morning. This will be a light rain with amounts ranging from a third of an inch over the north to less than a tenth of an inch Downeast. As the low continues east into New Brunswick late this afternoon, colder air will surge in behind the low changing the rain over to snow around early afternoon in the northwest and late afternoon in the northeast. The snow will taper off early this evening. Snow amounts up to an inch are possible over the north, mainly on grassy surfaces, with a little over an inch possible over higher elevations. Low pressure will continue away through the Maritimes tonight as a quick surge of cold air rushes in behind the low on gusty northwesterly winds. Lows by morning will range from near 20 over the north to 30 along the coast. A gusty northwesterly wind will continue all night keeping the air well mixed as the sky becomes clear over central and southern areas and partly cloudy across the northeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes Thursday. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will clip the region early Thursday. The disturbance could bring the slight chance of a snow shower to northern Aroostook county early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward the region Thursday with partly/mostly sunny skies north with mostly sunny skies Downeast. The pressure gradient between the exiting Maritimes low and building high pressure will support gusty northwest winds Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected into early Thursday afternoon, then decreasing late. High pressure builds across the region Thursday night through Friday night with mostly clear skies. Below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will begin to slowly exit east Saturday, with a warm front approaching Saturday night. Expect mostly sunny skies Saturday morning, then partly sunny during the afternoon. Clouds then increase Saturday night in advance of the approaching warm front. Could also have a slight chance/chance of rain showers late. The warm front stalls across the region Sunday. Expect a chance of showers with the stalling front Sunday. However, slowly exiting high pressure should help to limit the shower coverage. The boundary should begin to lift back north Monday, while high pressure remains ridged across the Maritimes. A chance of showers will persist Monday. Low pressure will begin to approach, from the west, later Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday, with a steadier rain possible. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will drop to MVFR late this morning then IFR this afternoon in rain, and some snow north. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR then VFR tonight, first Downeast then across the north. Winds will be light southerly today then strong gusty northwesterly tonight. SHORT TERM: Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night, then around 10 knots Friday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night through Saturday. Saturday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance to chance of rain showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today then increase to a strong SCA tonight in gusty NW winds following a cold frontal passage. Seas will build up to 5 ft today then 6 ft tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions expected into Thursday. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory levels Thursday night into Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/Norcross ####018006706#### FXUS66 KLOX 241318 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 618 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...24/233 AM. Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will maintain much cooler than normal temperatures across much of Southwest California through at least Friday. Areas of night through morning low clouds with patchy fog and drizzle are expected across the coast, valleys, and foothills, with only partial afternoon clearing. Warmer weather is expected by the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...24/311 AM. The next three days will be all about how the marine layer low cloud pattern develops and dissipates each night and morning. Synoptically a broad upper trof will move over the area today followed by fast NW flow Thursday and then a fast moving inside slider on Friday. The onshore flow will weaken each day with diurnal afternoon maxes to the east about 8 mb today, 7 tomorrow and 6 on Friday. The corresponding push to the north will be 2, then 1 with Friday's gradient switching to about a mb offshore. The one thing to watch today is the trof that the mdls are not impressed with. Satellite shows a slightly stronger looking system that has even produced a lightning strike in the last two hours. That said it looks like the bulk of this trof's energy is going to pass to the south. Low clouds currently cover most of the csts/vlys with a notable exception of the SBA south coast and the VTA coast. The low clouds will likely move over the VTA coast but expect the SBA south cst to remain clear. The capping inversion is very weak and this combined with the deep marine layer should result in decent coastal clearing for the coasts and partly cloudy skies due to strata cu formation in the vlys. With similar cloud condition as ydy the lower hgts from the approaching trof should bring a few degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps today across the csts/vlys will be in the 60s or 6 to 12 degrees blo normal. The trof moving over the area late this afternoon and evening should deepen the marine layer again there will be enough lift to produce some patchy evening drizzle. With the offshore trends esp from the north there should be decent clearing Thursday afternoon. The csts/vlys will respond to the additional sunshine and weaker sea breeze with 1 to 3 degrees of warming but residual cool air from the trof will cool the interior 3 to 5 degrees. On Thursday evening/Friday morning the lift from the inside slider should somewhat counter act the offshore trends in the sfc gradients and bring low clouds to much of the csts/vlys but it does look like the the VTA and South SBA csts will be clear. Some north flow will bring clouds to the north slopes near the Kern County line. The NW-N flow from the inside slider will bring near advisory level winds to the northern LA mtns and portions of the Antelope Vly. The developing offshore flow from the north should bring total clearing. The offshore flow form the north, plenty of sunshine will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas. Max temps will still mostly be 4 to 8 degrees blo normal. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/319 AM. Xtnd mdls and ensembles are all in good agreement that weather will take decidedly clearer and warmer turn for the weekend and Monday. A ridge will move into and over the state hgts will reach about 578 dam Sunday and might hit 580 dam on Monday. There will only be weak onshore flow to the east and 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow from the N. Skies should be clear through the period. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees each day. Monday's Max temps will be in the 70s and lower 80s or a few degrees above normal. The ridge is forceast to break down on Tuesday and onshore flow will increase. There might be some patchy low clouds in the morning. Max temps will cool a few degrees. && .AVIATION...24/1316Z. At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 11 C. There were areas of low clouds from the coastal slopes to the beaches, but with a weakening inversion, clouds were breaking up. In general, cigs were mostly high MVFR to VFR, except IFR to VLIFR in the foothills/mtns. Skies should clear in most areas by late morning, but there may be some stratocu in the valleys/foothills in the afternoon. Expect widespread clouds tonight from the coastal slopes southward/westward, with generally high MVFR to VFR cigs, except IFR to VLIFR conds in the foothills/mtns. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conds should be mostly VFR thru the period, though there should be some cigs at VFR levels this morning, and again this eve thru Thu morning. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs 08Z-16Z Thu. No east wind component expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conds should be mostly VFR thru the period, though there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs thru 18Z this morning, and after 08Z tonight. && .MARINE...24/607 AM. In the Outer Waters, good confidence that winds will reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676) this afternoon thru late tonight, with a 30% chance in the northern zone. SCA conds are expected Thu afternoon thru Sun. There is a 50-60% chance of gales late Thu afternoon thru Sat. For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. There is a 20% chance of SCA level NW winds this afternoon/eve. SCA level winds are likely in the afternoon/eve hours Thu-Sun. There is a 30% chance of gales Fri afternoon/eve. In the Inner Waters S Pt Conception, moderate confidence. SCA conds are likely in western portions of the SBA Channel during the afternoon/eve hours today and Thu, with a 30% chance of SCA conds from Anacapa Island to Malibu. SCA conds are likely in the SBA Channel and much of the southern inner waters during the afternoon thru late night hours Fri-Sun. There is a 30% chance of gales in the western SBA Channel and near Anacapa Island Fri afternoon/eve. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...DB MARINE...DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018003960#### FXUS62 KRAH 241319 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drift southeast into central NC today, then shift to our south tonight. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 919 AM EDT Wednesday... Sfc analysis this morning depicted a pre-frontal trough draped across the NC/VA foothills. This feature has been generating mostly elevated stratiform rain, little of which has reached the sfc along the NC/VA border. A narrow band of clouds and elevated stratiform rain will continue to slide sse through the day. Most of this should evaporate aloft, but some reports of trace to maybe a few hundreds seem plausible today. Have lowered high temps a bit to account for some evaporative cooling potential (low 70s central/north areas, mid to upper 70s across the south). The synoptic cold front currently draped west of the Appalachian Mountains will traverse central NC later tonight. This front will be dry. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 AM Wednesday... Mainly sunny and about 5 degrees cooler Thursday. 1030 mb high pressure will be over PA/NY at 12z Thursday with a cold front offshore of the Carolina coast. The high pressure will gradually shift east and off the New England and mid-Atlantic coast by 00z/Friday. The low level flow from the NE will gradually turn to the E-SE late Thursday and Thursday night. This flow will be a bit more moist, especially in the Piedmont west into the Blue Ridge. Expect increasing cloudiness, especially in the Piedmont late Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the 65-70 range north and northeast ranging into the mid 70s over the Sandhills and Southern Piedmont. Lows Thursday night are favored to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... A mid/upr-level anticyclone will build across and offshore the South Atlantic states through Monday. A weak shortwave trough will then briefly weaken the ridge as it migrates across the ern US Tue-Wed. At the surface, cP high pressure over ON this morning will build sewd and across New England by 12Z Fri, then swd along and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will direct across cntl NC seasonably cool/mild ely flow Fri-Sat and much warmer sswly flow Sun-Tue. A pre-frontal/lee trough and following cold front will accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough over the ern US late Tue-Wed. Associated probability of showers/storms should be diurnally-maximized with the pre-frontal/lee trough, which will likely move across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal Plain Tue afternoon and evening, with dry conditions in cntl NC until that time. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 635 AM Wednesday... A band of mid and high clouds (VFR) will pass over central NC today. This will be associated with a surface cold front. This front will push through today then offshore tonight. Skies will then clear out by late in the TAF valid period. Surface winds from the SW will shift to be from the W gradually through the next 24 hours as a cold front moves through the area. Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions are expected to hold through Sun, under high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Badgett