####018001284#### AXXX82 KWNP 170031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 16 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3628 N05W0* 4 60 2 HSX 1 A 3633 S09W65 323 80 3 CSO 3 B 3634 N26W56 314 310 9 DHI 9 B 3635 N22W28 286 10 5 AXX 3 A 3636 S20E08 250 90 4 CSO 3 B 3637 S13E27 231 20 4 DRO 2 BD 3638 S17E32 226 80 4 CAI 8 B 3639 N29E36 220 310 11 EKI 19 BGD 3641 N12W14 271 110 9 DAO 6 B 3642 N18W25 283 10 4 BXO 5 B 3643 S13E48 210 100 7 DAI 6 BG 3644 N12E72 183 80 4 DSO 2 B ####018002366#### FXXX10 KWNP 170031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19 00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 4.33 3.00 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.00 06-09UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 4.00 2.33 12-15UT 2.33 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 3.67 1.67 2.00 21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.00 Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected early on 17 Apr due to continued CME influences. G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 18 Apr due to an additional enhancement from CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days due to collective potential from numerous active regions. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 16 2024 1802 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on all three days. There is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days. All due to potential from several regions. ####018002703#### FXXX12 KWNP 170031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3643 (S13E48, Dai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1.1/2n (R1-Minor) at 16/1802 UTC. Region 3643 along with Region 3639 (S29E36, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited the most growth on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 3644 (N12E72, Dso/beta) rotated onto the visible disk from the E limb. Additional spots were observed rotating around the E limb near N22. Additional activity included a ~10 degree filament eruption near S50E25 beginning after ~16/1900 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to analyze any CME associated with the event. .Forecast... Solar activity is forecast to be moderate, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong) over 17-19 Apr. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1/Minor) over 17-19 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 19 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced by a passing CME. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 7-13 nT. The Bz component was predominantly southward, with a maximum deflection of -12 nT. Solar wind speeds remained low, ranging between 350-400 km/s for most of the day. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards nominal levels mid-day to late on 17 Apr. Early on 18 Apr, additional enhancements are expected due to the anticipated arrival CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr. Waning CME conditions are likely on 19 Apr. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels under CME influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected continue at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels early on 17 Apr with continued CME influences. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 Apr due to anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 14 and 15 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely over 19 Apr as CME influence wanes.