####018002044#### FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class flares were observed during the period. Region 3599 (S13E25, Csi/beta-gamma) and new Region 3604 (N08E71, Hax/alpha) were the only regions to exhibit growth. The remaining regions were mostly stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares, on 06-08 Mar. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 06-08 Mar. Proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels. Total field strength averaged near 6 nT, Bz saw only minor southward deviations, and solar wind speeds were steady at around 400-450 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 06-07 Mar. Weak enhancements are possible late on 08 Mar as a small, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 06-07 Mar. Unsettled levels are likely, with a chance for isolated active periods by late on 08 Mar, as a weak, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. ####018002237#### FXXX10 KWNP 060031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 06-Mar 08 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 06-Mar 08 2024 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.33 1.00 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2024 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 06-Mar 08 2024 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity will persist through 08 Mar as AR 3595 exits the western limb and AR 3599 shows signs of evolution. ####018001168#### AXXX82 KWNP 060031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 05 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3591 S35W66 157 40 1 HSX 1 A 3595 N21W74 165 190 10 DSO 2 B 3596 N20W45 136 10 0 AXX 1 A 3598 S11W88 179 10 4 BXO 1 B 3599 S13E25 66 70 4 DSI 6 BG 3600 S18E33 57 70 2 HSX 1 A 3601 N14W37 128 10 2 BXO 3 B 3602 N20E16 74 50 7 CSO 4 B 3603 N14E40 50 40 3 HSX 1 A 3604 N08E71 20 70 2 HAX 1 A