####018001226#### AXXX82 KWNP 290031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Sep 28 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4224 S14W0* 206 60 4 DSO 2 B 4225 N09W78 176 90 2 HSX 1 A 4226 S11W35 133 130 4 CAO 5 B 4227 S17W41 139 30 10 CAO 5 B 4228 N05W26 124 10 3 AXX 2 A 4229 S04W0* 202 30 2 DSO 2 B 4230 S11W10 108 70 12 EAO 7 BG 4232 N04E48 50 180 5 DSO 5 BG 4233 N18E50 48 60 6 DAO 6 B 4235 N30E51 47 20 2 CSO 3 B 4236 N11E42 56 30 4 DAI 7 B ####018003208#### FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels following an impulsive M6.4/1b flare (R2-Moderate) at 28/0843 UTC from Region 4232 (N04E48, Dso/beta-gamma). This region also added a C7.4 flare at 28/1956 UTC. Region 4232 experienced slight growth, developing a gamma signature as well. Region 4233 (N18E50, Dao/beta) also had slight growth, and added a few strong C-class flares during the period. The first was a C9.0 at 28/1324 UTC followed immediately by a C9.9 flare at 28/1331 UTC. The third was a C9.6 flare that occurred at 28/2034 UTC. Both Regions 4232 and 4233 added several low level C-class flares during the period as well. Regions 4230 (S11W10, Eao/beta-gamma) and 4235 (N30E51, Cso/beta) exhibited minor growth, but were mostly inactive. New Region 4236 (N11E42, Dai/beta) developed quickly, was numbered, and has already produced low-level C-class flares. The remaining active regions experienced slight decay or remained mostly unchanged. Analysis and modeling of the CME associated with the M6.4 flare resulted in a likely miss behind Earth. At this time, no Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) through 01 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels through 01 Oct as CH HSS influences persist, but begin to diminish on 29 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected weak influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength continued to gradually increase from ~4 nT to a peak of 14 nT. The Bz component had isolated southward deflections to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~375 km/s to ~450 km/s. Phi angle was solidly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely to continue on 29 Sep as influence from a negative polarity CH HSS persists. Waning CH HSS influences are expected by 30 Sep into 01 Oct, with decreasing enhancements reflected in the solar wind parameters. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected, with a decreasing chance for isolated G1 (Minor) conditions on 29 Sep due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return by 30 Sep into 01 Oct as CH HSS influence gradually declines. ####018002115#### FXXX10 KWNP 290031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Sep 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2025 Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 4.00 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 12-15UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 2.67 2.00 1.00 18-21UT 1.67 2.00 1.33 21-00UT 1.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2025 Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2025 Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 29-30 Sep and 01 Oct.