####018001458#### AXXX82 KWNP 200031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 19 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3633 S08W0* 324 80 4 CSO 3 B 3635 N22W70 288 10 4 CRO 2 B 3636 S21W31 249 30 3 CAO 3 B 3637 S15W13 231 10 1 AXX 1 A 3638 S18W08 226 60 4 CAI 13 B 3639 N29W02 220 300 12 EKC 19 BG 3641 N09W59 277 10 1 AXX 1 A 3643 S13E05 213 130 10 DAI 18 B 3644 N13E37 181 120 5 DSO 2 B 3645 S09W04 222 210 8 DAI 16 B 3646 N21E38 180 20 8 BXO 5 B 3647 S13W00 218 160 5 DAC 9 BD 3649 N16W24 242 20 5 BXI 8 B 3650 S11E21 197 30 3 CRO 4 B 3651 N13E25 192 10 2 BXO 2 B ####018003020#### FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 3647 (S13W00, Dac/beta-delta) produced two M-flares (R1/Minor), the largest of which was an M2.1 flare at 19/0453 UTC. Region 3647 began to show signs of separation of the shared penumbra between its principle spots. Region 3645 (S09W04, Dai/beta) underwent slight decay in its intermediate spot area and consolidation of the leader and trailing spots. Region 3639 (N29W02, Ekc/beta-gamma) underwent some slight area growth. New Regions 3649 (N16W24, Bxi/beta), 3650 (S11E21, Cro/beta) and 3651 (N13E25, Bxo/beta) were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. Other activity included a large prominence eruption on the SE limb beginning at around 19/0400 UTC, however, the associated CME is not Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-21 Apr. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are expected, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 20-22 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions became enhanced beginning at 19/0413 UTC due to CME activity. Following CME arrival, total field strength reached 18 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward after 19/0410 UTC with a peak of -17 nT observed. Solar wind speeds reached up to ~549 km/s at 19/2233 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 20-22 Apr due to CME activity (on 20 and 21 Apr) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (on 20-22 Apr). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels this period in response to CME activity. .Forecast... Periods of unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-21 Apr due to continued CME activity, coupled with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-18 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. ####018002216#### FXXX10 KWNP 200031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 20-Apr 22 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 20-Apr 22 2024 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 00-03UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 0.67 2.00 2.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.00 3.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 20-Apr 22 2024 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 19 2024 0453 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 20-Apr 22 2024 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.