####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 120031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Feb 11 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4366 N15W97 204 800 19 FHC 22 BGD 4367 N09W70 176 10 1 HRX 1 A 4368 S10W67 173 80 2 HSX 1 A 4369 S03W63 169 80 2 HSX 1 A 4371 S24W46 152 10 1 AXX 1 A 4373 N09W02 108 120 3 HSX 2 A 4374 N11E45 61 210 10 CSO 7 B 4375 N16E72 34 60 2 HSX 1 A ####018002116#### FXXX10 KWNP 120031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 12-Feb 14 2026 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.00 1.33 2.67 06-09UT 1.67 1.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 2.67 12-15UT 0.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.00 1.33 2.67 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.67 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 11 2026 1312 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2026 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are through 12-14 Feb. ####018003929#### FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels during the reporting period. The strongest event was an M1.4 flare observed at 11/1312 UTC from departed Region 4366 (N09, L=204). This region also produced nine C-class flares. Region 4373 (N09W02, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1.8/Sf flare at 11/1804 UTC. This region displayed some minor area growth. Regions 4369 (S03W63, Hsx/alpha) and 4371 (S24W46, Axx/alpha) exhibited some minor decay. The other spotted regions remained unchanged. New Region 4375 (N16E72, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. A small loop structure near S22W80 erupted around 10/1948Z, first visible in LASCO C2 at 10/1924Z. Around the same time, a large filament (located near N15W25) lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery. Between faint features in disk imagery and a data gap in STEREO coronagraph imagery, it is difficult to determine whether the filament is superimposed over the earlier eruption or largely fell back down to the Sun. Analysis of the coronagraph structure indicates there is no Earth-directed component; however, there is the potential for interaction between the eruption and the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of an anticipated high-speed stream, which may cause the CIR to become compressed and arrive later than under ambient conditions. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 14 Feb. Probability for M-class (R1-R2) dropped to a slight chance on 12-14 Feb and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares on 12 Feb as Region 4366 continues to rotate behind the western limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels with a maximum flux of 940 pfu observed at 11/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 12-13 Feb and normal to moderate levels on 14 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) with discrete mild disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar wind speeds remained generally elevated, slowly decreasing from ~500 km/s to ~400 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained around 7 nT with the North-South (Bz) component southward for the majority of the period, attaining a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. The Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative (towards the Sun) orientation with some isolated intervals of northward Bz. .Forecast... The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to be mostly undisturbed on Feb 12-13 as there are no recurrent or transient disturbances anticipated those days. On 14 Feb, the wind environment is expected to become more enhanced late in the day due to CIR effects from a large positive polarity CH HSS coupled with possible weak CME effects from the 11 Feb eruption. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 12-13 Feb. Mostly unsettled levels are likely for 14 Feb due to CIR effects from a large positive polarity CH HSS coupled with possible weak CME effects from the 11 Feb eruption late in the day.