####018002230#### FXXX10 KWNP 221231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jun 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2026 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 00-03UT 1.33 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 1.00 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 1.00 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 1.67 12-15UT 1.00 1.33 2.67 15-18UT 1.00 0.67 2.67 18-21UT 0.67 1.00 3.67 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 21 2026 1929 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2026 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 22-24 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473. ####018002173#### FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4473 (S08E52, Fai/beta-gamma) produced an M6.8/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 21/1929 UTC, with an associated Type-II radio sweep (est. 380 km/s); the strongest of the period. Regions 4472 (S13E34, Dao/beta) and 4473 exhibited minor growth, and new Region 4474 (N03W70, Cao/beta) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on 22-24 Jun, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 22-24 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds varied between ~390-330 km/s. .Forecast... Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-23 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected on 24 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels over 22-23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 24 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.