####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 230031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jun 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jun 22 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4470 N07W12 188 15 7 DRO 6 B 4472 S14E28 148 60 5 DAO 9 B 4473 S09E40 137 70 3 DAI 7 BG 4474 N03W75 251 40 4 CAO 4 BG 4475 S09E51 126 130 9 CAO 5 BG ####018002997#### FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels, with the largest flare of the period being a C1.5 at 22/0456 UTC from just behind the SE limb. Due to decreased foreshortening effects, old Region 4473 was deemed to be two separate groups and was split: Region 4473 (S09E40, Dai/beta-gamma), the western-most group that produced the M6.8 at 21/1929 UTC, and Region 4475 (S09E51, Cao/beta-gamma), the eastern-most group. Regions 4472 (S14E28, Dao/beta)exhibited minor growth. Several eruptions were seen over 20-21 Jun associated with activity from Regions 4472 and 4473, such as the M6.8. Analysis of the coronagraph imagery suggests each eruption is quite slow (~250 km/s or less); however modeling of them all together indicates that they may interact with each other and an anticipated CIR, resulting in possible minor glancing blows to Earth late on 24 Jun and potentially 28 Jun. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on 23-25 Jun, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473 and a region seen in Solar Orbiter data about to rotate onto the eastern limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 23-25 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period, with total magnetic field strength (Bt) at or below 6 nT, no significant periods of southward Bz, phi largely positive, and solar wind speeds averaging 350 km/s. At 22/1815 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing produced a bump in Bt, peaking at 7 nT, but no appreciable change in other solar wind parameters. .Forecast... Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 23 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and a potential minor glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels through 23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS and glancing blow influences. ####018002221#### FXXX10 KWNP 230031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jun 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2026 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.33 4.00 06-09UT 1.67 1.67 2.67 09-12UT 1.33 1.67 2.67 12-15UT 1.33 2.67 1.67 15-18UT 0.67 2.67 1.67 18-21UT 1.00 3.67 2.67 21-00UT 1.67 3.67 3.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Active conditions are likely 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a slow-moving CME that departed the Sun on 20 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2026 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2026 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 R1-R2 30% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 22-24 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473.