####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 120031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 May 11 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4431 S16W90 102 60 2 HSX 1 A 4432 N14W70 82 680 12 EKI 17 BG 4433 S17W39 51 50 4 CAO 5 B 4435 N23W29 41 40 2 HSX 1 A 4436 N19E41 330 200 8 DAO 5 BG ####018002224#### FXXX10 KWNP 120031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2026 May 12 May 13 May 14 00-03UT 3.00 3.33 3.00 03-06UT 2.00 3.33 3.00 06-09UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 1.67 15-18UT 2.67 2.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 2.67 21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026 May 12 May 13 May 14 S1 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 12 May due to the potential from Region 4432. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026 May 12 May 13 May 14 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 14 May. A slight chance exists for an R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackout on 12 May. All mostly due to the complexity of Regions 4432 and 4436. ####018002400#### FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 4436 (N19E42, Dao/beta-gamma) had slight growth in penumbral area and contributed C-class activity. Region 4432 (N14W70, Eki/beta-gamma) maintained a mixed polarity configuration while gaining new spots in its intermediate area, while also producing C-class flares. The remaining three numbered regions were relatively stable and quiet. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 12-14 May, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, and a decreasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 12 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached 8 nT, while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds were generally between 375-400 km/s. Phi was positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels until late on 12 May to early on 13 May when a glancing shock is possible from the 10 May CME. A positive polarity CH HSS is expected to also enhance solar wind parameters on 13-14 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through a majority of 12 May. Active conditions are possible, with a high chance of G1 (Minor) periods, by late 12 May into early 13 May with any glancing blow or shock arrival of the 10 May CME event. Unsettled to active levels are then expected to continue on 14 May with positive polarity CH HSS effects.