####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 020031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jan 01 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4317 N11W90 16 30 2 HSX 1 A 4323 S17W00 286 10 3 BXO 3 B 4324 N24W02 288 170 5 DAI 13 BG 4325 S08W10 296 330 12 EKI 26 BG 4328 S13W21 307 20 5 CSO 5 B 4331 S25E24 262 10 1 AXX 1 A 4332 N14E17 269 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018003434#### FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels due to numerous C-class flares. The largest flare of the period was a C9.6/Sf at 01/0225 UTC from Region 4325 (S08W10, Eki/beta-gamma). Moderate growth and consolidation occurred in this region causing it to largely lose its delta configuration. Region 4324 (N24W02, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a C6.2 flare at 01/1759 UTC. An associated CME signature was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 01/1912 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing. Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 4324. Departing Region 4317 (N11W90, Hsx/alpha) produced a few low levels C-class flares. All other spot groups were either stable or in mild decay. A filament erupted off the SE quadrant starting at 01/0506 UTC, triggering a sympathetic C2.0 flare from Region 4331 (S25E24, Axx/alpha) at 01/0537 UTC. An associated CME became visible is coronagraph imagery at 01/0548 UTC. Initial analysis indicates a potential Earth-impact late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 02-04 Jan. M-class activity is most possible from Regions 4324 and 4325. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,918 pfu at 01/1530 UTC before decreasing once more to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 02 Jan. Due to CME activity, a return to high levels is likely by 03-04 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 02-04 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary crossing followed by a possible connection to a negative polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz (north-south) component ranged between +/-8 nT. After a short interval of acceleration early in the reporting period, the solar wind speed averaged 480 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 02-04 Jan due to a combination of CH HSS and CME activity. There is the potential for glancing influences early on 02 Jan from CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30 Dec and again late on 02 Jan into 03 Jan from the aforementioned CME associated with the M7.1 flare. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels on 02 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. ####018002198#### FXXX10 KWNP 020031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 00-03UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 3.00 6.00 (G2) 3.33 06-09UT 2.67 6.00 (G2) 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00 12-15UT 2.33 4.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 3.00 3.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.33 3.33 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over 02-03 Jan due to anticipated influence from multiple CMEs that left the Sun over 28-30 Dec. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 S1 or greater 20% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 02-04 Jan due to multiple complex regions on the solar disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 02-04, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), primarily due to flare potential from Regions 4325 and 4324.