####018001632#### AXXX82 KWNP 230031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 22 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3636 S21W70 248 10 1 AXX 1 A 3637 S13W55 233 10 2 BXO 2 B 3638 S18W51 229 10 5 BXO 9 B 3639 N28W44 222 200 12 EAI 12 BG 3641 N10W0* 279 10 1 AXX 1 A 3643 S13W32 210 20 7 CRO 7 B 3644 N14W04 182 150 7 DAO 3 B 3645 S09W50 228 260 10 DKC 18 BG 3646 N21W01 179 100 7 CAI 14 B 3647 S13W44 222 200 6 DAC 17 BG 3649 N15W68 246 20 4 CSO 3 B 3650 S10W23 201 100 6 CAI 8 B 3652 N15E17 161 120 6 DAO 6 B 3653 N02E45 133 10 1 AXX 1 A 3654 S09E45 133 20 1 CRO 2 B 3655 S28E50 127 30 7 CRO 6 B 3656 S12E60 118 10 1 BXO 2 B 3657 S11E31 146 10 3 BXO 2 B ####018002155#### FXXX10 KWNP 230031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 23-Apr 25 2024 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25 00-03UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 03-06UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 3.67 2.67 3.67 09-12UT 3.67 2.00 4.33 12-15UT 2.67 2.00 3.67 15-18UT 2.67 1.67 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 2.67 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 4.33 Rationale: There is a chance of G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms on 24 Apr (Day 3). B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 22 2024 1550 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are expected. There is a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) radio blackouts with 20 active regions on the visible disk. ####018002597#### FXXX12 KWNP 230031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with 5 low-level M-class events occurring over the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M2.8 from Region 3656 (Bxo-Beta, S12E60) as it was decaying. The southeast part of the visible disk is the focus of much of the activity. There were 3 Beta-Gamma regions on the visible disk: 3639 (Eai, N28W44), 3645 (DKC, S09W50), and 3647 (Dac, S13W44). Two CMEs, associated with the M3.4/Sn flare at 21/2152 UTC and a C8.9 flare at 22/0537 UTC from Region 3638, were analyzed and the majority of the material is directed well south of the ecliptic. Earth appears to be scraped by the trailing edges on the 25th and 26th which factors in to the geomagnetic forecast below. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate over 23-25 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a lingering chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 23-25 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 23-25 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were nominal throughout the period. Solar wind speed declined slightly from 450 to 400 km/s and Bz was seldom more southward than -5nT. .Forecast... Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected on 24-25 Apr with the (weak) arrival of the CMEs described above combined with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions on 23 Apr are expected to be nominal. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels with a potential for active periods on 23-24 Apr, becoming active with a chance of minor storm conditions on 25 Apr as the fast solar wind stream and CME edges become geoeffective.