####018004166#### FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate, but did decrease some over the past 24 hours, with four low-level M-class events observed. The visible solar disk remained littered with sunspot groups, with fourteen designated spot groups at this time and making some sunspot region locations difficult to ascertain in several cases - especially with the many spot clusters in the far southwest. That large area of spot groups consists of five groups in close proximity and shifting areas of magnetic connection. Region 3650 (S11W45, Bxo/beta) appeared to drift away from other spot clusters in the area and decayed considerably. Region 3643 (S12W56, Eac/beta-gamma) was adjusted notably based on latest magnetic analysis and spot configuration - thus despite the large areal coverage difference from previous reports, the spots underwent minor growth. Region 3645 (S08W71, Dki/beta-gamma) underwent some decay, but did produce the largest flare of this reporting period, an M2.9 at 23/1744 UTC. It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst beginning at 23/1747 UTC and ejecta to the west was observed in GOES SUVI 304 angstrom imagery. Region 3654 (S08E25, Dai/beta) experienced magnetic flux transport in the leader and decent configuration changes. Region 3646 (N21W20, Dai/beta) spread further in length, but underwent some decay in leader spots. Many other changes were noted with the numerous number of spot groups, but all the aforementioned are the main highlights. There are also a few areas of potential spot development that may warrant designation should they not decay away. Multiple narrow, southward CMEs as well as a larger partial halo CME associated with the M2.9 from AR 3638 were observed. This CME has been analyzed and appears to transit just ahead of Earths orbital location. .Forecast... Despite a recent lull in M-class flares, solar activity is still expected to be at moderate to high levels over 24-26 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength decreased from 5-6 nT to 2-4 nT and the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed varied primarily between 350-400 km/s and the phi angle was negative until just after 24/0600 UTC, when it deflected into a positive sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected 24-26 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible weak nearby transient passages. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period later on 23 Apr. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled and active levels are expected on 25 Apr from possible CME activity and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. These conditions are anticipated to persist through 25 Apr. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms does exist due to the eruptive activity noted above, although there are no obvious Earth-directed events discernible in the coronagraph imagery. ####018002313#### FXXX10 KWNP 241231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 00-03UT 2.00 3.00 4.33 03-06UT 0.33 2.67 4.00 06-09UT 0.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.33 4.33 3.00 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.67 18-21UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 4.00 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 24-26 Apr due to the favorable location and enhanced flare probabilities of a number of spot groups. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 23 2024 1744 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2024 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) event due to the number of sunspots present on the solar disk and increased flare probabilities 24-26 Apr.