####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 040031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Jan 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Jan 03 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4323 S17W28 288 140 7 DAI 20 B 4324 N24W28 288 70 5 DAI 10 B 4325 S08W38 298 300 15 EKO 22 BG 4328 S13W48 308 10 1 AXX 1 A 4333 S11W11 271 20 7 CAO 10 B 4334 S15E59 201 100 2 HSX 1 A 4335 S22E02 258 10 2 HSX 2 A ####018002218#### FXXX10 KWNP 040031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 04-Jan 06 2026 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 00-03UT 3.33 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 1.67 06-09UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 3.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04 Jan due to the anticipated effects of passing CME that left the Sun on 02 Jan. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 04-06 Jan due to the eruptive potential of multiple regions on the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 04-06 Jan due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk. ####018003248#### FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels due to C-class flares from Regions 4324 (N24W28, Dai/beta) and 4325 (S08W38, Eko/beta-gamma). The largest of these flares was an impulsive C8.3 at 03/1729 UTC from Region 4325. Both of these regions continued to exhibit decay, each losing intermediate and trailer spots during the period. Region 4323 (S17W28, Dai/beta) was the only region to show signs of development, increasing in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. New Region 4335 (S22E02, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-direct CMEs were observed at available coronagraph imagery during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to remain low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong) over 04-06 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,940 pfu at 03/1625 UTC before decreasing to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 04-06 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossing the threshold of 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 06 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained enhanced throughout the day, indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influence and interaction with CMEs that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec. Solar Wind speeds briefly reached near 600 km/s early in the period before gradually returning to around 500 km/s by the end of the period. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged from 3-7 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained mostly in the negative sector, suggesting that the Earth is under the influence of the negative CH HSS. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be increasingly disturbed on 04 Jan due to a combination of the ongoing influences of the negative CH HSS and the arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 02 Jan. Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to more ambient conditions on 05-06 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during the period, reflecting the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS and, potentially, the early disturbances caused by the periphery of CMEs that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 04 Jan due to the combination of the ongoing HSS activity and influence of a CME that left the Sun on 02 Jan. On 05-06 Jan, geomagnetic activity levels are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as CME/CH HSS effects diminish.