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FXXX12 KWNP 130201

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2024 Mar 13 0200 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity remained low levels. Region 3599 (S12W67, Dao/beta-gamma)

continued to spawn most of the flare activity, though it did exhibit

signs of decay and lost its delta configuration. It was responsible for

the largest flare of the period, a C3.9/Sf flare at 12/1135 UTC. Newly

numbered Regions 3606 (N08E27, Dao/beta) and 3607 (S18E44, Dso/beta)

continued to grow, yet remained mostly quiet. The remaining two active

regions showed further decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in

available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class

(R1 - Minor) flares, on 13-15 Mar.



Energetic Particles



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak

of 555 pfu at 12/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near

background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to

moderate levels on 13-15 Mar. Proton flux is expected to remain at

background levels.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a near-background solar wind

regime. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, Bz had a few, minor

southward deflections to near -5 nT, while solar wind speeds were steady

near 425 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation, with

isolated oscillations into a negative orientation the latter half of the

period.



.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on

13 Mar. On 14 Mar, the solar wind environment is expected to see

slightly enhanced conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a

geoeffective position.



Geospace                                                                



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.



.Forecast...

Mostly quiet levels are expected on 13 Mar as influence from a

negative polarity CH HSS diminishes. By 14-15 Mar, a new negative

polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geo-effective position,

bringing in quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated

active periods. There is a slight chance for possible G1 (Minor) storm

levels on 14-15 Mar if the CME from 10 Mar passes near enough to Earth.

This is a very low confidence forecast at this time.