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AXXX82 KWNP 050031

DAYOBS



:Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt

:Issued: 2025 Oct 05 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#             Summary of Space Weather Observations

#

:Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 04

# Region   Location         Sunspot Characteristics

#           Helio                      Spot  Spot  Mag.

# Num   Lat.,CMD  Long.  Area  Extent  class count class

 4230    S10W93    112    200    11     EAI    4     BG

 4232    N04W34     53    310     9     DHI   18      B

 4233    N19W31     50     10     4     HRX    2      A

 4235    N27W33     52     10     1     AXX    1      A

 4236    N10W43     62    320    11     EKC   17     BG

 4238    S14W98    117    100     4     CSO    2      B

 4241    N14E05     14     30     7     DAI    8      B

 4242    S11E13      6     80     2     DAI    3      B

 4243    N18E41    338     10     2     BXO    4      B

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FXXX10 KWNP 050031

DAYTDF



:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2025 Oct 05 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             3-Day Forecast

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA

Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 05-Oct 07 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale

G1).



NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 05-Oct 07 2025



             Oct 05       Oct 06       Oct 07

00-03UT       3.67         3.33         2.00     

03-06UT       3.67         3.67         2.67     

06-09UT       3.33         3.33         3.00     

09-12UT       3.00         3.00         2.33     

12-15UT       3.00         2.33         4.33     

15-18UT       3.00         2.00         3.00     

18-21UT       3.33         3.00         4.67 (G1)

21-00UT       3.00         3.33         3.00     



Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Oct

due to CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving

CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was

below S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2025



              Oct 05  Oct 06  Oct 07

S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%



Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation

storms over 05-07 Oct.



C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.



Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 05-Oct 07 2025



              Oct 05        Oct 06        Oct 07

R1-R2           60%           60%           60%

R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%



Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a

slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 05-07 Oct.

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FXXX12 KWNP 050031

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2025 Oct 05 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4242 (S11E13, Dai/beta)

produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.4 flare at 04/0142 UTC.

Regions 4236 (N10W43, Ekc/beta-gamma) and 4232 (N04W34, Dhi/beta)

remained the largest and most complex. A Type II radio sweep (est. 284

km/s) was reported beginning at 04/1643 UTC and appears to be associated

with eruptive activity around the Suns west limb. No Earth-directed

CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar flare activity is likely to remain at moderate levels

(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for strong (R3-Strong),

over 05-07 Oct.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by the GOES-19 satellite

reached high levels, with a peak flux of 14,337 pfu due to persistent

+CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the

GOES-18 satellite, remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past

24 hrs.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high

levels as the CH HSS continues over 05-07 Oct. There is a slight chance

the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaches the S1 (minor) threshold due

to the presence of multiple magnetically complex active regions on the

visible disk.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

The solar wind near Earth continued to reflect the influence of a

positive polarity CH HSS. Phi angle were oriented in a positive solar

sector. Wind speeds generally varied between 550-700 km/s during the

period. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) remained around 5

nT, with north/south (Bz) component between -/+ 5 nT.



.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated, but waning

levels over 05-06 Oct due to ongoing CH HSS influence. An additional

enhancement is likely on 07 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of two

slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to ongoing CH HSS

influence.



.Forecast...

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance

for G1 (Minor) storming, over 05-06 Oct under continued CH HSS

influence. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 07 Oct due to

the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03

Oct.