####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 140031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 13 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3599 S14W81 67 140 7 CAO 2 B 3605 S13W58 44 10 1 AXX 1 A 3606 N09E13 331 30 5 DAO 5 B 3607 S17E32 313 110 6 DAO 5 B 3608 N12E40 305 10 0 AXX 1 A 3609 N07E48 298 10 1 AXX 1 A 3610 S16E68 278 10 1 HAX 1 A ####018003016#### FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. Region 3599 (S14W81, Cao/beta) produced a C6.2 flare at 13/2349 UTC, which was the largest of the period. This AR exhibited a mostly decaying trend as it made its way to the west limb, while Region 3607 grew slightly and began to show good separation between the leading and trailing spots. Region 3608 (N11E48, Axx/alpha), Region 3609 (N06E55, Axx/alpha), and Region 3610 (S16E75, Hsx/alpha) were all numbered over the past 24 hours, yet remained quiet and inactive. The remaining two active regions were both showing signs of decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1 - Minor) flares, on 14-16 Mar. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels with a peak of 226 pfu at 13/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Mar. Proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Total field strength ranged from 4 to 8 nT, Bz had a few, minor southward deflections to near -7 nT, while wind speeds were between 400-460 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation, with isolated periods in a negative position. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced early on 14 Mar, with additional enhancements likely by midday as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Additional enhancements could be observed on 14-15 Mar if the CME from 10 Mar materializes and combines with the CH HSS effects. By late on 15 Mar and into 16 Mar, conditions should begin to taper off as the CH HSS moves from its geoeffective position. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 14 Mar as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geo-effective position. There is a slight chance for possible G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14-15 Mar if the CME from 10 Mar passes near enough to Earth. This continues to be a very low confidence forecast. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are set to return by 16 Mar as CH HSS influence diminishes. ####018002213#### FXXX10 KWNP 140031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 14-Mar 16 2024 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 00-03UT 2.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.33 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.00 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through the forecast period as AR 3599 exits the western limb.