####018002091#### FXXX10 KWNP 051231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jan 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2026 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 00-03UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 03-06UT 4.00 1.67 1.67 06-09UT 4.33 1.67 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 3.33 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 1.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 0.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2026 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 07 Jan. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2026 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events over 05-07 Jan. ####018002248#### FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jan 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Minor C-class activity was observed from Regions 4324 (N26W47, Hsx/alpha), 4325 (S08W57, Eko/beta-gamma), 4334 (S15E39, Hsx/alpha), and 4336 (S09E68, Cao/beta). All six numbered regions on the visible disk were either stable, or showed signs of decay. No Earth-direct CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong) over 05-07 Jan. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,926 pfu at 04/1700 UTC before decreasing to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05 Jan, then decay back to normal to moderate levels on 06-07 Jan. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 07 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of the 02 Jan CME. The solar wind environment was near background levels until ~04/2045 UTC when Bt increased to 10 nT, the Bz component moved southward to -7 nT, and wind speeds increased slightly to 500 km/s. Conditions remained enhanced for the remainder of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at slightly elevated levels on 05 Jan as weak CME influences persist. Conditions are then expected to slowly return to more ambient levels on 06-07 Jan. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels on 05 Jan and mostly quiet levels on 06-7 Jan.