####018002929#### FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Low-level C-class X-ray emissions from a source around the W limb were the strongest of the period. Newly numbered Region 4244 (S21E64, Axx/alpha) was quiet as it rotated further from the E limb. Regions 4236 (N11W57, Eac/beta) and 4232 (N04W49, Dki/beta) remained the largest on the visible disk but did not produce any notable activity in the past 24 hours. Additional activity included a filament eruption near S20E25 that began at around 05/2000 UTC and was ongoing at the time of writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... These exists a chance for solar flare activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for strong (R3-Strong), over 06-08 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by the GOES-19 satellite reached high levels, with a peak flux of 23,594 pfu due to continuous +CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels as the CH HSS continues over 06-08 Oct. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaches the S1 (minor) threshold due to the potential from multiple active regions on the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT for most of the period. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds declined from ~550 to ~430 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was primarily oriented in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated, but waning levels over 06-07 Oct due to ongoing CH HSS influence. An additional enhancement is likely over 07-08 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels due to ongoing CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, over 06 Oct under waning CH HSS influence. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct. ####018002108#### FXXX10 KWNP 060031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 06-Oct 08 2025 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 00-03UT 3.33 2.00 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 3.33 3.00 3.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 12-15UT 2.33 4.33 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 2.00 21-00UT 3.33 3.00 3.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 07-08 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of two slow-moving CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 06-08 Oct. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 06-Oct 08 2025 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 06-08 Oct. ####018001052#### AXXX82 KWNP 060031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 05 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4230 S10W0* 113 200 11 EAI 4 BG 4232 N04W49 55 260 6 DKI 15 B 4235 N27W47 53 10 1 AXX 1 A 4236 N10W57 63 190 11 EAC 14 B 4241 N14W09 15 60 11 EAO 8 B 4242 S11W01 7 90 8 DAI 13 B 4243 N18E27 339 20 3 CRO 3 B 4244 S21E64 302 10 1 AXX 3 A