####018002230#### FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. A source beyond the northeast limb, likely the return of old Region 4419 (N15, L=316), produced a long-duration M2.6 flare at 07/1514 UTC, and a long-duration C4.5 flare at 07/0215 UTC; the largest events of the period. Slight growth was observed in Region 4432 (N14W14, Cai/beta), and the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 08-10 May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 10 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was consistent with CIR effects preceding positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 20 nT, while the Bz component was predominantly neutral or northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds increased from a low or around 330 km/s to a peak of around 425 km/s after 07/1500 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influences through 10 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 08-09 May, and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 May, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. ####018002145#### FXXX10 KWNP 080031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 08-May 10 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 08-May 10 2026 May 08 May 09 May 10 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.67 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 08-May 10 2026 May 08 May 09 May 10 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 07 2026 1514 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 08-May 10 2026 May 08 May 09 May 10 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 08-10 May. ####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 080031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 May 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 May 07 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4425 N05W0* 168 180 2 HSX 2 A 4428 S23W0* 171 140 11 ESO 3 B 4431 S16W30 95 150 10 CAO 4 B 4432 N14W14 79 50 7 CAI 10 B 4433 S17E16 49 170 8 CAO 4 B 4435 N23E24 41 60 2 HSX 1 A