####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 110031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 Feb 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Feb 10 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4366 N14W84 204 800 19 FHC 22 BGD 4367 N09W58 178 15 1 HRX 1 A 4368 S10W55 175 100 2 HSX 1 A 4369 S03W51 171 110 2 HSX 2 A 4371 S23W34 154 20 2 HRX 1 A 4373 N09E10 110 140 3 HAX 3 A 4374 N11E58 62 200 10 CSO 5 B ####018003406#### FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with 7 active regions on the visible disk. The strongest flare of the day was a C3.9 at 10/0704 UTC from Region 4371 (S23W34, Hrx/alpha). Regions 4374 (N11E58, Cso/beta) and 4366 (N14W84, Fhc/beta-gamma-delta) were responsible for the remaining C-class flares of the period, including a long-duration C3.2 flare that peaked at 10/1910 UTC and lasted 79 minutes. Around the same time, a large filament (roughly located at N15W25) lifted off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery. Further coronagraph imagery will be necessary to observe and model a possible CME component of this event. An eruption became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1948 UTC, likely superimposed over another eruption from S22W80 from 10/1840 UTC which became visible in C2 imagery at 10/1924 UTC. Analysis of these eruptions is ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be Minor to Moderate (R1-R2) through the 13 Feb, with a chance for X-class flares on 11 Feb and a slight chance for an X-class flare on 12-13 Feb, as Region 4366 rotates off of the visible disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,006 pfu observed at 10/1205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 11-13 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11 Feb and a slight chance of crossing threshold on 12-13 Feb as Region 4366 rotates into the West limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to mostly reflect the influences of negative polarity CH HSS during the day, with discrete mild disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar wind speed remained between 400-500 km/s most of the period, reaching a peak of 521 km/s at 10/1818Z. Total IMF (Bt) oscillated between 4-9 nT, with two hour-long periods of Bz negative (southward) around 10/0900 UTC and 10/2000 UTC (the maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1935Z). The Phi angle remained predominantly negative. .Forecast... The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to be undisturbed on Feb 11-13 as there are no recurrent or transient disturbances anticipated for the next days, though there is potential for a mild disturbance from late on 10 Feb continuing into the early hours of 11 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 11-13 Feb, as no recurrent or transient disturbances are anticipated near Earth at the period, though there is the potential for isolated active or G1 (Minor) storming conditions early on 11 Feb. ####018002236#### FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Feb 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 is 2.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 00-03UT 3.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 4.67 2.00 1.33 06-09UT 2.67 1.67 1.33 09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.33 0.67 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.00 1.33 18-21UT 1.00 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 11 Feb due to lingering influence from embedded transients. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 S1 or greater 25% 20% 15% Rationale: There is decreasing potential for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 13 Feb due to the eruptive potential of active regions leaving the visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 R1-R2 65% 65% 55% R3 or greater 25% 20% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a decreasing chance of R3 (Strong) or greater events through 13 Feb due to the eruptive potential of active regions leaving the visible disk.