####018001168#### AXXX82 KWNP 280031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Apr 27 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3639 N30W0* 216 10 1 AXX 1 A 3644 N13W70 182 10 3 BXO 2 B 3646 N22W61 173 30 2 CAO 2 B 3648 N18W85 197 10 2 BXO 2 B 3652 N14W57 169 70 2 HSX 1 A 3654 S08W23 135 230 13 ESI 18 BG 3655 S26W20 132 60 2 HAX 1 A 3657 S15W32 144 10 2 BXO 3 B 3658 S23W71 183 50 6 CRO 6 B 3660 N10E62 50 30 1 HSX 1 A ####018003292#### FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels as Region 3654 (S08W23, Esi/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M3.0 flare at 27/2140 UTC. The region also produced C-class activity. It remains the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3648 (N18W85, Cao/beta) produced a C4.9/Sf at 27/1628 UTC as it approached the WNW limb. Region 3657 (S15W32, Bxo/beta) reemerged with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. At about 27/1100 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery contained a faint, slow-moving CME off the SW limb. This CME signature is suspected to have originated in the vicinity of Region 3654 when some westward moving enhancements were detected at about 27/0900 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a possible Earth-directed component could affect Earth mid-to-late on 01 May. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 28-30 Apr with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 28-30 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 28-30 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was enhanced due to possible CME influence early in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 16 nT and the Bz component was varied between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady from 300-350 km/s until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high of around 550 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation through the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 28-30 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few days. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz. ####018002128#### FXXX10 KWNP 280031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 06-09UT 3.33 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 18-21UT 2.00 2.33 2.67 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 27 2024 1235 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2024 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected over the next three days.