####018000878#### AXXX82 KWNP 170031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 16 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3606 N09W26 332 10 1 AXX 2 A 3607 S17W08 314 20 9 CRO 6 B 3611 N28E35 271 30 1 HRX 1 A 3612 N23W68 15 10 1 AXX 1 A 3613 S23W17 323 70 6 CAO 7 B ####018002461#### FXXX12 KWNP 170031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. An unseen source region behind the SE limb produced an M3.5 flare at 16/1635 UTC and an M1.1 flare at 16/2155 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3613 (S23W17, Cao/beta) increased in size and spot count throughout the period, and produced a C1.6 flare at 16/1416 UTC. The remaining regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay. Other activity included a filament eruption just north of center disk beginning ~16/0530 UTC, however, the bulk of plasma appears to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 17-19 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded S1 (Minor) levels this period. The 10 MeV flux reached S1 levels beginning at 15/2050 UTC, reached a peak of 16.7 pfu at 16/0635 UTC, and decreased below S1 levels at 16/1505 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below S1 (Minor) levels on 17 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 18-19 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to background levels this period following weak CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds decreased from a high of around 450 km/s to end-of-period values around 350 km/s. Total field strength ranged 2-5 nT and Bz was mostly neutral and northward throughout the period. The phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on 17 Mar due to CH HSS influences. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected over 18-19 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Mar due to CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected over 18-19 Mar. ####018002131#### FXXX10 KWNP 170031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 17-Mar 19 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 17-Mar 19 2024 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 17-Mar 19 2024 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 S1 or greater 40% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 17 Mar. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 16 2024 1635 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 17-Mar 19 2024 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.