####018003478#### FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.1 flare at 30/2050 UTC from AR 4479 (N16W31, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the flare were Type II (1496 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 410 sfu tenflare, and EUV dimming observed at 30/2059 UTC suggesting a CME emission. This region was also responsible for four impulsive low-level M-class flares. Other activity included an M5.8 flare at 30/1257 UTC from Region 4475 (S09W70, Dai/beta). Region 4478 (S05W13, Fki/beta-gamma-delta), the largest region on the disk, was not as active but produced a C9.1 flare at 30/1958 UTC. These three regions appeared to be in a growth phase. Several small deltas were observed on the periphery of Regions 4478 and 4479. A full-halo CME associated with the X1.1 flare is first visible in GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 30/2145 UTC. CME analysis is ongoing at the time of this writing, but preliminary analysis suggests Earth impacts 03-04 Jul. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) due to the flare potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 5,687 pfu observed at 30/1315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again reach high levels on 01 and 03 Jul. Moderate levels are likely on 02 Jul due to the possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to CME arrival. Total field strength gradually increased to 18 nT throughout the period. The Bz component has been variable with a few southward deflections to -10 nT. Solar wind speeds have been steady near 425 km/s. Phis has been negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 01 Jul as CME active persists. Further enhancements are possible late on 01 to early on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. An additional enhancement is possible on 03 Jul due to the likely arrival of a CME that left the Sun late on 30 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was initially quiet until the arrival of the aforementioned CME that left the Sun on 26 Jun. Active to G1 (Minor) conditions were observed during the latter half of the summary period. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated periods reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity persists. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is lower for this event. G1-G2 conditions are possible by 03 Jul pending further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare. ####018002601#### FXXX10 KWNP 011231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 Jul 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 4.00 2.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 5.67 (G2) 15-18UT 2.00 2.00 4.67 (G1) 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.33 21-00UT 4.33 1.67 4.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated periods reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity persists. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is lower for this event. G1-G2 conditions are possible by 03 Jul pending further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms increases beginning 03 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with Earth. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 30 2026 2050 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 R1-R2 70% 70% 70% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.