####018002873#### FXXX12 KWNP 180031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with a marked increase in C-class flare activity. The bulk of the C-flare activity originated from an unnumbered source on the SE limb; the largest of which was a C6.6 flare at 17/0359 UTC. New Region 3614 (N16E70, Hax/alpha) was numbered after rotating onto the NE limb, and the region produced a C3.8 flare at 17/0547 UTC. Regions 3607 (S17W21, Bxo/beta) and 3613 (S22W30, Dai/beta) exhibited growth and Region 3608 (N11W10, Dro/beta) re-emerged with spots. The remaining regions were stable. Other activity included a filament channel eruption (~35 degrees in length) near S28W25 beginning at around 17/0100 UTC. Two subsequent CMEs were identified in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery following the eruption. The first signature was to the SSE beginning ~17/0312 UTC and the second was to the SW beginning ~17/0336 UTC. These CMEs have been analyzed to be Earth-directed and are expected to arrive separately after midday on 20 Mar and early 21 Mar. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 18-20 Mar, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels, but remained below event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below event levels on 18 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 19-20 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speeds were between 260-400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector. .Forecast... Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 18-19 Mar, and through the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected after midday on 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over 18-19 Mar, and through the first half of 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. ####018002062#### FXXX10 KWNP 180031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 1.33 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 1.33 1.00 3.00 12-15UT 1.00 0.67 3.67 15-18UT 1.00 0.67 3.67 18-21UT 1.33 1.67 4.00 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.67 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 20 Mar due to the arrival of the 17 Mar CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2024 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 R1-R2 30% 30% 30% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 18-20 Mar. ####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 180031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 17 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3607 S17W21 314 20 9 BXO 5 B 3608 N11W10 303 30 5 DRO 10 B 3611 N28E21 272 20 1 HRX 1 A 3612 N22W80 13 10 2 AXX 2 A 3613 S22W30 323 130 6 DAI 7 B 3614 N16E70 223 80 2 HAX 1 A