####018002241#### FXXX10 KWNP 091231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 09-Oct 11 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 09-Oct 11 2025 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 00-03UT 1.00 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 0.67 1.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 09-12UT 1.67 1.00 2.33 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.33 18-21UT 1.67 1.33 3.67 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 09-Oct 11 2025 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 S1 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 09-Oct 11 2025 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 R1-R2 10% 25% 25% R3 or greater 1% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will remain for 09 Oct. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities increase to a low chance on 10-11 Oct with the prospect of regions due to return. ####018002587#### FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4232 (N02, L=57) produced low level C-class flares as it exited the western limb. Region 4242 (S11W44, Bxo/beta) produced a C1.2 flare at 08/1248 UTC and underwent decay in its leading spots. Region 4247 (S11W07, Dso/beta) underwent evolution, developing rudimentary penumbra on both its poles. Additional activity included a CME off the NE beginning near 09/0630 UTC. This event is possibly associated with an active filament centered near N28E40 in AIA 304. Analysis is ongoing at the time of this summary. .Forecast... A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will remain for 09 Oct. R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities increase to a low chance on 10 Oct with the prospect of regions due to return. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 4,770 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 11 Oct. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected slightly enhanced conditions likely due to magnetic cloud influences. Total field was elevated at 6 to 15 nT while the Bz component was mostly southward at -5 early, before rotating northward after ~08/2000 UTC. Solar wind speeds averaged near 375 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... A return to nominal conditions is anticipated over the course of 09-10 Oct. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced and disturbed once again by late on 11 Oct due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 10 Oct. Active conditions are expected by late on 11 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.