####018003238#### FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615 (S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). Since being numbered, this region has contributed numerous C-class flares as well. Region 3612 (N22, L=014) produced an M2.7 flare at 18/0332 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb. Shortly after, an additional M1.0 flare was observed from Region 3614 (N16E56, Dai/beta) at 18/0414 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of Region 3608 (N10W24, Bxo/beta) and was numbered 3616 (N02W31, Dai/beta). Since its emergence, this region has grown rapidly over the period. Between about 18/0200-0315 UTC, an 11 degree long filament erupted that was centered near N13W32. At this time, no discernable CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal. Solar wind speeds remained steady near 300 km/s through about 18/1940 UTC when an increase to about 357 km/s was observed. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT through 18/1935 UTC when an increase to 11 nT was observed. The Bz component was mostly positive through about 18/1300 UTC when a dip to -10 nT was observed. The Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive sector. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 18/2016 UTC. .Forecast... Ambient to weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 19 Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 190031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 18 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3607 S17W34 314 50 5 DAO 7 B 3608 N10W24 304 10 5 BXO 7 B 3611 N28E09 271 10 1 HRX 1 A 3613 S22W44 324 110 7 DAI 8 B 3614 N16E56 224 170 4 DAI 9 B 3615 S12E62 218 180 11 EAO 13 BG 3616 N02W31 311 50 5 DAI 12 B ####018002123#### FXXX10 KWNP 190031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 00-03UT 3.33 1.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.67 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 2.00 1.67 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 1.67 3.00 3.00 12-15UT 0.67 3.67 4.00 15-18UT 0.67 3.67 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 4.00 3.00 21-00UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 19-21 Mar.