####018000936#### AXXX82 KWNP 110031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 10 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4241 N12W72 12 10 3 BXO 3 B 4245 S10W80 20 20 4 CRO 3 B 4246 N23E09 290 10 3 BXO 3 B 4247 S10W25 325 30 4 DRO 4 B 4248 N08E47 253 50 10 DSO 6 BG 4249 S20E50 250 10 2 AXX 2 A ####018002361#### FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with five sunspot regions present on the visible solar disk and with one C-class flare during the period. Region 4248 (N08E47, Dso/beta-gamma) grew and developed a mixed polarity in the leader section, but magnetic shear was weak and the region was mainly inactive. Region 4241 (N12W71, Bxo/beta) changed little overall but was the source of a C2.3/Sf flare at 10/0629 UTC. The remaining regions were little changed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events over the next three days (11-13 Oct). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels over 11-13 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were indicative of a mildly enhanced IMF but slow solar wind regime. Total magnetic field strength hovered near 10 nT while the Bz component was mainly neutral to southward directed. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 300-400 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to experience an enhancement in total magnetic field strength and solar wind speed late on 11 Oct through 13 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied response to the mildly enhanced IMF. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active conditions on 11 Oct and G1 (Minor) storm levels over 12-13 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. ####018002127#### FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 11-Oct 13 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 11-Oct 13 2025 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 00-03UT 2.33 3.00 3.67 03-06UT 2.00 3.00 3.00 06-09UT 2.33 3.67 3.00 09-12UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.67 2.00 18-21UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67 21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 12-13 Oct in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 11-Oct 13 2025 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 11-Oct 13 2025 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.