####018002134#### FXXX10 KWNP 200031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 20-Mar 22 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 20-Mar 22 2024 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 00-03UT 1.67 3.00 3.00 03-06UT 2.00 4.00 2.00 06-09UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00 09-12UT 3.00 3.00 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 4.00 2.00 15-18UT 3.67 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the arrival of the 17 Mar CMEs. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2024 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 19 2024 2327 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 20-Mar 22 2024 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 20-22 Mar. ####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 200031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 19 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3607 S17W48 315 80 6 DAO 11 B 3608 N10W38 305 20 5 CAO 5 B 3611 N28W03 270 10 1 HRX 1 A 3613 S22W57 324 80 5 DAI 9 B 3614 N16E43 224 200 5 DAO 6 BD 3615 S12E53 214 240 11 EAC 14 BG 3616 N02W44 311 50 7 CAO 7 B ####018002935#### FXXX12 KWNP 200031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) with an impulsive M1.4 flare at 19/0229 UTC and an M2.1 at 19/2327 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E48, Eac/beta-gamma). This region was also responsible for numerous C-class activity to include a C5.3 at 19/0516 UTC, a C5.9/1f at 19/1253 UTC, a C7.1/Sn at 19/1726 UTC and a C5.8 at 19/1958 UTC. The region exhibited intermediate and leader spot growth. Region 3616 (N02W44, Cao/beta) produced a C5.2 flare at 19/0347 UTC and a C5.9/Sf at 19/2130 UTC. This region showed signs of evolution, gaining a weak gamma signature in its intermediate area. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low over 20-22 Mar, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly elevated, but below event levels on 20 Mar, and slowly return to background levels over 21-22 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected likely transient influences beginning late on 18 Mar. Total field increased to 9-11 nT, and the Bz component underwent a prolonged, southward deflection reaching -7 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from ~360 km/s to ~410 km/s. Phi was variable throughout the period. .Forecast... Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over the first half of 20 Mar. More enhanced solar wind conditions are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Conditions are expected to gradually wane on 22 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament eruption. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Mar as CME effects slowly wane.