####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 030031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 May 02 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3654 S07W90 136 240 11 EAI 6 B 3655 S26W83 129 20 1 HRX 1 A 3661 N22E27 19 50 9 CSO 5 B 3662 N30W15 61 90 9 DAO 11 B 3663 N26E10 36 230 10 DAC 18 BD 3664 S18E52 354 120 8 DAI 13 B 3665 S05E71 335 10 1 AXX 1 A ####018002338#### FXXX10 KWNP 030031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 00-03UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.67 03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 3.33 06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.67 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 Rationale: An early, isolated period of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is expected on 03 May, with a few periods of G1-2 (Minor-Moderate) storming expected thereafter, as lingering CME effects slowly wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 S1 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for a R1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will persist through 05 May as AR 3654 rotates beyond the western limb, and AR 3663 continues to show signs of evolution. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 02 2024 2057 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 R1-R2 65% 55% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: Isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity are likely through 05 May primarily due to the potential exhibited by ARs 3663 and 64. ####018002735#### FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.0/1n flare at 02/0217 UTC from Region 3663 (N26E10, Dac/beta-delta) and an M2.7 flare at 02/2057 UTC from Region 3664 (S18E52, Dai/beta). Regions 3663 and 3664 produced the majority of the flaring activity. Both regions were in a growth phase. Region 3663 appeared to have a small delta within its larger central spot. Region 3654 (S07W90, Eai/beta) appeared to be in decay as it rotated around the SW limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 03-05 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 03-05 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 03-05 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through approximately mid period with total field around 10 nT and solar wind speed at mostly nominal levels. At 02/1317 UTC, a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft indicating the arrival of a CME, possibly from 29 Apr. Total field increased to 19 nT while solar wind speed only increased to near 400 km/s. Solar wind speed further increased to around 450 km/s with total field remaining in the 17 to 20 nT range. Prolonged periods of southward Bz were observed reaching -19 nT. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under CME effects through 02 May, but slowly diminish through the day. A transition to positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 04 May and persisting through 05 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Quiet to unsettled levels were observed through 03/1200 UTC. At 02/1412 UTC, a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed (29 nT at HAD magnetometer). The geomagnetic field then reached G3 (Strong) storming levels from approximately 1500-2100 UTC. .Forecast... G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through early to midday on 03 May as CME effects persist. Quiet to active lives are expected on 04-05 May as HSS effects take over.