####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 120031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2025 Oct 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2025 Oct 11 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4242 S16W78 4 10 1 AXX 1 A 4245 S10W94 21 10 4 BXO 3 B 4246 N22W03 290 50 7 DAI 12 B 4247 S12W38 325 30 3 CRO 6 B 4248 N07E29 257 50 6 DSO 7 B 4249 S20E35 251 10 1 AXX 1 A 4250 N07E31 255 40 5 DAI 8 B ####018002076#### FXXX10 KWNP 120031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Oct 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 12-Oct 14 2025 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 00-03UT 3.00 3.67 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.00 2.00 06-09UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 1.67 15-18UT 3.67 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 1.67 21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 12-13 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 12-Oct 14 2025 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 R1-R2 20% 20% 20% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 12-14 Oct. ####018002451#### FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was a C2.7 flare at 11/1915 UTC from Region 4247 (S12W38, Cro/beta). Development was observed in this region and Regions 4246 (N22W03, Dai/beta), 4248 (N07E29, Dso/beta), and 4250 (N07E31, Dai/beta). A very faint, slow-moving CME, associated with coronal dimming near Region 4246, was identified in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 11/0248 UTC. Model output indicates this CME will arrive on 15 Oct. .Forecast... There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events over the next three days (12-14 Oct). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels by 14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 12-14 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters increased in both IMF strength and solar wind speed over the period, likely due to the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 17 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak of ~600 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels over 12-14 Oct due to persistent effects from a negative polarity coronal hole. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels in response to influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm levels over 12-13 Oct, with a slight chance for G2 (Moderate) conditions on 12 Oct, due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled conditions are likely on 14 Oct as influence from the coronal hole wanes.