####018000994#### AXXX82 KWNP 210031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2024 Mar 20 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 3607 S18W62 316 70 6 DAI 10 B 3608 N10W52 306 10 2 AXX 2 A 3613 S22W71 325 60 5 DAO 5 B 3614 N17E32 222 200 3 DAO 4 BD 3615 S12E39 215 300 13 EKC 20 BGD 3616 N02W59 313 30 8 CAO 6 B 3617 S15E70 184 60 4 HAX 3 A ####018003550#### FXXX12 KWNP 210031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest flare was an M7.4/3b (R2; Moderate) flare at 20/0736 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E39, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Seven designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk. Region 3615 stretched 13 degrees in length and underwent some growth, particularly in the intermediate section. The region is magnetically complex, but mostly with regards to its delta components; magnetic shear is fair in those areas, but is otherwise minor to moderate elsewhere. This region also produced numerous C-class flares. No discernible CME was associated with the M7 flare. Region 3614 (N17E32, Dao/beta-delta) underwent minor changes, but no additional development. The regions delta configuration appeared weak and the AR was mainly inactive. New Region 3617 (S15E70, Hax/alpha) rotated further into view, but remained severely foreshortened for an accurate analysis - still, the AR was mainly inactive. All remaining regions underwent some decay or changed little. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and slight chance of an X-class event (R3; Strong) 21-23 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. .Forecast... The risk for any S1 (Minor) or higher events appears minimal 21-23 Mar due to the low probability of significant enhancements in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to be mostly normal, with brief periods of moderate levels possible all three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was mainly at 5 nT or less most of the reporting period, but did increase slightly to near 7 nT later. The Bz component was near neutral, with a few periods of weak southward direction. Solar wind speed declined from ~400 km/s to about 315 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative sector. .Forecast... The anticipated CME passages near Earth or arrivals as weak glancing blows are still possible 21 Mar, although as of this report no indications of pending approach were noted. Should any CME influences occur, intensification of the IMF is likely, with only a modest escalation in solar wind speed. Any CME influences are expected to weaken on 22 Mar with a return to a more ambient, background like solar wind environment on 23 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Should CME influences occur, active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are probable on 21 Mar, otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated. Any increased geomagnetic response due to CME effects is likely to weaken on 22 Mar, with mainly quiet to unsettled conditions resulting. A return to primarily quiet conditions is expected on 23 Mar. ####018002252#### FXXX10 KWNP 210031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Mar 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 21-Mar 23 2024 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23 00-03UT 3.00 3.00 1.67 03-06UT 4.00 2.00 1.67 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 4.00 2.00 1.00 15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.33 21-00UT 2.00 2.33 1.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 21 Mar due to CME effects from a filament eruption that left the sun on 17 Mar. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 20 2024 0736 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2024 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), will persist through 23 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of AR 2615.