####018003574#### FXXX12 KWNP 031231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26E02, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.6/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 03/0219 UTC, the strongest of the period. A Type II (est. 959 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep along with a Tenflare (660 sfu) accompanied the flare. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery contained a CME signature directed northward after 03/0248 UTC. Analysis of the event is ongoing. Region 3664 (S18E40, Eki/beta-gamma) also produced multiple M-class flares (R1/Minor) this period, the strongest being an M4.4/Sb at 03/0811 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if a CME was associated with the event. Other activity included two filament eruptions just south of Region 3661 (N24E14, Cso/beta) which began around 03/0500 UTC. Again, further coronagraph imagery is need to analyze any potential CME associated with this event. Newly numbered region 3666 (N07E15, Dao/beta) remained quiet as it developed. Regions 3663 and 3664 both exhibited constant growth over the past 24 hours. Multiple new regions of emerging flux were observed in the W hemisphere but will need to persist for longer before an active region number is assigned. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 03-05 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 03-05 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 03-05 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested CME passage over the past 24 hours. An already enhanced IMF near 10 nT was abruptly increased to ~20nT at 02/1317 UTC, when an interplanetary shock was observed. The Bz component shifted far southward, with a maximum deflection of -19 nT. The Bz component was oriented mostly southward until after 02/1900 UTC. Solar wind speeds only exhibited a mild increase from 350 km/s to 400 km/s during the initial shock and then steadily increased to a maximum near 500 km/s at 03/0200 UTC. After ~03/0200 UTC, a pronounced trend towards background levels was observed in both the IMF strength and solar wind speeds. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under waning CME effects over 03 May. A transition to positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 04 May and persisting through 05 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field increased from G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels after 02/1412 UTC, when a sudden impulse was observed (29 nT at HAD magnetometer) in Earths magnetosphere. G3 conditions continued until the 03/2100 UTC synoptic period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at unsettled to active levels as the CME effects wane on 03 May. Active conditions are again likely on 04-05 May due to the anticipated onset of CH HSS influence. ####018002183#### FXXX10 KWNP 031231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 00-03UT 4.33 4.00 3.67 03-06UT 3.33 2.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.67 09-12UT 1.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.67 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 S1 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for a R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 03 2024 0222 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024 May 03 May 04 May 05 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and chance for R3 (Strong), are expected over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.