####018003023#### AXXX81 KWNP 150017 DAYIND :Product: Daily Space Weather Indices dayind.txt :Issued: 2026 May 15 0016 UT # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.spaceweather.gov # # Daily Space Weather Indices # # :Solar_Indices: 2026 May 14 # SWO Sunspot Penticton Radio 90-day Radio GOES X-ray Stanford Solar # Number Flux 10.7cm Flux 10.7cm Bkgd Flux Mean Field 60 106 125 6.07e-07 -999 # :Solar_Region_Data: 2026 May 14 # --------- Flares --------- # Sunspot Area New Spotted X-ray Optical # 10E-6 Hemis. Regions Region C M X S 1 2 3 4 290 0 4 12 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 # :Solar_Radio_Flux: 2026 May 14 # Learmonth San Vito Sag Hill Penticton Penticton Palehua Penticton # 0400 1000 1700 1700 2000 2300 2300 245 24 12 14 -1 -1 5 -1 410 34 21 32 -1 -1 7 -1 610 49 -1 53 -1 -1 9 -1 1415 -1 67 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2695 -1 99 -1 -1 -1 98 -1 2800 -1 -1 -1 103 106 -1 104 4995 -1 140 -1 -1 -1 140 -1 8800 -1 257 -1 -1 -1 269 -1 15400 -1 533 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 # :Particle_Data: 2026 May 14 # GOES Proton Fluence GOES Electron Fluence GOES Neutron # ---- Protons/cm2-day-sr ---- - Electrons/cm2-day-sr - Location Monitor # ->1 MeV >10 MeV >100 MeV >0.8 MeV >2 MeV West % of bkgd 4.96e+05 1.86e+04 -1.00e+00 -1.00e+00 1.23e+07 104.70 -999.9 # :Geomagnetic_Indices: 2026 May 14 # Middle Latitude Middle Latitude # ----- Fredericksburg ----- --------- Boulder --------- # A K-indices A K-indices # 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 5 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 6 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 # High Latitude Estimated # --------- College --------- -------------------- Planetary -------------------- # A K-indices A K-indices # 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03 - 06 - 09 - 12 - 15 - 18 - 21 - 24 5 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 5 2.67 1.67 1.67 0.67 1.33 0.67 0.67 1.33 ####018002771#### FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 May 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels, with four active regions on disk and only C-class level activity. Region 4435 (N22W66, Dri/beta-gamma) was responsible for the most of the C-class flares, including the largest event: a C5.5/Sf peaking at 14/0642 UTC. Region 4436 (N18E02, Cao/beta) was stable this period and produced a C5.1 flare at 14/1840 UTC. Regions 4435 and 4438 (N20W44, Dao/beta) showed significant growth in the later half of the reporting period. An active filament was observed near N40W45 at approximately 14/1330 UTC. However, no discernable ejecta has been observed in coronagraph imagery at the time of this summary. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 May, decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 16 May, potentially reaching high levels on 17 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels through 17 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind parameters reflected the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT levels, with a minimum of 2 nT at 14/2149 UTC. The speeds also slowly dropped from about 450 km/s to a minimum of 375 km/s before starting to slowly accelerate again. The north-south Bz component reduced the amplitude of its oscillation to +- 5 nT, though it spent the majority of the reporting period oriented northward. The Phi angle was predominantly positive until 14/1948 UTC, when it flipped negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced from 15-17 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) storming conditions are likely on 15 May due to the anticipated impact of a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to prevail on 16-17 May due to lingering CH HSS influences. ####018000820#### AXXX82 KWNP 150031 DAYOBS :Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2026 May 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 May 14 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 4433 S17W80 53 10 1 AXX 1 A 4435 N22W66 38 50 4 DRI 7 BG 4436 N18E02 331 180 4 CAO 7 B 4438 N20W44 16 50 6 DAO 5 B ####018002062#### FXXX10 KWNP 150031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2026 May 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 00-03UT 4.00 4.33 3.00 03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 4.00 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 3.67 3.33 3.00 12-15UT 3.67 3.33 3.00 15-18UT 3.67 3.33 3.67 18-21UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected through 17 May due to the anticipated arrival of a negative polarity high speed stream. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026 May 15 May 16 May 17 R1-R2 40% 30% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 15-16 May, decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May.